2-5-17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WAYNE ROOT

Millionaires--Under 59.5
(Might move up to 60)
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No Limit---New England -3
(Won't move off -3. They might adjust the money line down to -140 Patriots).

The last 16 Super Bowls played, the best offense won just twice. The best defensive team wins Championship Games. The Patriots are without a doubt the best team defensively. Quinn's Atlanta defense was 27th in the NFL in points allowed and starts four rookies, which could be viewed as blood in the water for Brady. With the best coach and quarterback as an added dimension, the Pats win in a very well played game by both sides. If a predicted final score is helpful, we see it going under the total with a final score of 31-24 Patriots winning. Brady was sacked just 15 times and had a TD-to-INT ratio of 28-12. Against Atlanta, a defense built on speed, the Patriots could install an extra offensive lineman or tight end and play power football to force the Falcons to adjust. The defense that grabs the advantage early in crossing up the quarterback will also have a huge advantage. We've seen them play so there are no surprises rather than defensive excellence is usually awarded the Lombardi Trophy. Can't wait to see what Robert Kraft and Tom Brady will do in accepting the trophy from the despised NFL commissioner, Roger Goodell. It makes one think the New England Patriots are extra motivated.
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My props. 60% of all money is now bet on props. These lines and number system is from the Westgate. I am betting all of these myself. These 50 are from the 450 offered ).
___________________________

PROP BETS


1) 4101 Patriots -1/2 point +110 in 2nd quarter
2) 5101 Patroits -1/2 point +130 3rd quarter
3) 201 Patriots -7.5 +180 for game
4) 66004 will either team score 3 straight times NO +120
5) 66005 will either team score in the first 6.5 mins of game NO +120
6) 66008 will either team score in the final 2 minutes of the 1st half NO +270
7) 66015 will there be a missed extra point YES +270
8) 66033 first reception by Edelman is OVER 9.5 -110
9) 66050 first pass by Matt Ryan will be INCOMPLETE +200
10) 10005 team to score last PATRIOTS -130
11) 10017 will either team make a field goal in the 1st quarter YES -120
12) 10028 longest TD of the game UNDER 49.5 yards
13) 10030 total TDs by both teams UNDER 6.5
14) 10036 will Pats score a TD in the 1st quarter NO +155
15) 10072 will the team that scores 1st win the game NO +155
16) 10079 will there be a 2-pt conversion attempt YES +140
17) 10081 will there be a successful 2-PY conversion YES +250
18) 10095 total passing yards by Brady OVER 310.5
19) 10129 total rushing yards by Dion Lewis OVER 39.5 -110
20) 10131 longest rush by Lewis OVER 11.5 even
21) 10135 will Lewis score a TD YES +170
22) 10163 longest reception by Edelman OVER 26.5 -110
23) 10165 total receptions by Edelman OVER 7.5 -110
24) will Edelman score a touchdown YES +115
25) 10169 will Edelman score a TD in the 1st half YES +250
26) 10171 will Edelman have a rushing attempt YES +150
27) 10229 total 1st half points by Patriots UNDER 16 -110
28) 10231 total 2nd half points by Patriots OVER 16 -110
29) 10236 what happens first? Pats score or punt PUNT +120
30) 10331 longest reception by Julian Jones OVER 25.5 yards -110
31) 10392 total points by Atlanta UNDER 28 -110
31) 10394 total 1st half points by Atlanta UNDER 13.5 -110
32) 10427 more completions Brady or Ryan BRADY -140
33) 10435 more rushing yards Lewis or Freeman? LEWIS -110
34) 10439 More receiving yards Edleman or Jones? EDELMAN -110
35) 13010 player to score 1st touchdown Devonta FREEMAN at 7/1
36) 10901 player to score last touchdown Dion LEWIS at 10/1
37) 12002 MVP Dion LEWIS at 25/1
38) 12003 MVP Julian EDELMAN at 18/1
39) 14160 total points scored 51-55 at 6/1
40) 14172 margin of victory PATRIOTS WIN and 5-8 points at 5/1
41) 14173 margin of victory PATRIOTS WIN and 9-12 points at 8/1
42) 14235 1st half is a tie and full game winner is Patriots at 12/1
43) 14071 exact score of Patriots for game 31 at 12/1
44) 14121 exact score of Falcons for game 21 at 12/1
45) 14124 exact score of Falcons for game 24 at 12/1
46) 14244 falcons score first but falcons lose game 4/1
47) 14360 total rush + receiving yards by Dion LEWIS 91-100
48) 14382 total receiving yards by EDELMAN 111-120 7/1
49) 14527 total receiving yards by Julio JONES 61-70
50) 14253 highest scoring quarter in total #rd quarter at 18/5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner
3000* NFL Championship Must Win Lock
pats -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Freddy Wills


Pats - 5.5*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

cousin sal props

1st td..200 each
sanu
gabriel
edelmam

score in last 2 min 1st half.....yes

d. lewis over 2 reception

[zsafern84]

Jesse Schule

Atlanta +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux Sports

Sunday February 5

#101 - NFL - 10 units on New England -3
#102 - NFL - 10 units on New England & Atlanta Under 58.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Crusher
New England Patriots -150 over Atlanta Falcons
(System Record: 39-4, lost last game)
Overall Record: 39-52-1

Rest of the Plays
none

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Ottawa Senators + Buffalo Sabres OVER 5 (pending)
Calgary Flames + New York Rangers OVER 5.5
(System Record: 45-3, won last game)
Overall Record: 45-49-11

Rest of the Plays
none

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Basketball Crusher
Notre Dame +9 over North Carolina
(System Record: 47-2, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 47-53-2

Rest of the Plays
Indiana +11.5 over Wisconsin
Colorado +6.5 over California
Clemson +7.5 over Florida State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soccer Crusher
Portuguesa RJ + Fluminense RJ UNDER 3
This match happening in Brazil
(System Record: 1091-33, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 1091-836-176

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Here are the upcoming system bet(s):


LA Clippers {A} bet - This is an unofficial bet because Chris Paul is injured & out.

Note that all bets labeled with either {B} or {C} are Exterminator system plays. Bet a flat percentage of your bankroll as instructed in the system manual.

Make sure to follow the Exterminator NBA System guidelines below:

- All {A} bets are not part of the Exterminator system. Unless, however, if you have the ability to buy 3 points at -170 odds, then it is strongly advisable to place a small wager on all the {A} bets with buying 3 points, up to 5% of your bankroll. This is an optional betting strategy, which has proven to be a profitable one based on my research. Buying 3 points on {A} bets has won over 65% of the time over the years, so you should bet on {A} bets if you can buy 3 points at -170 odds.

-All {B} and {C} bets are qualified under both the original NBA system as well as the Exterminator system. For the Exterminator system, bet a flat percentage of your bankroll on both {B} and {C} bets. You do not need to buy any points on these bets under the Exterminator system.

- Remember to bet on the point spread (handicap line)

- If your team is a favorite of -3 or more, bet on the money line. If the team is a big favorite resulting in odds that are too unfavorable for you to be comfortable with, then you can either optionally skip the series, or bet on the point spread, but do not continue betting on the series if your team wins the game but the bet does not cover.


Always consider the injury and the best/worst road team filters. Check the injuries to ensure your team's best player isn't out. I will always make my best effort to notify you of game-changing injuries whenever I am aware of them to ensure that you don't make wagers on team that don't pass the injury filter. However, I cannot make guarantees that I will always be able to be on top of every single injury, every game, every day, at all times. Some teams may hold off on releasing relevant injury information until much later in the day. A bet will be unofficial if it does not pass the filters of the system. Ultimately as a bettor, I always strongly encourage that if there's any uncertainty about the status of your team's best player for a game that you always check on final injury updates.

Good luck,
The "Champ" Team

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | NFL Total Sun, 02/05/17 - 6:35 PM

triple-dime bet

101 NEP / 102 ATL UNDER 59.5 Sportsbook.agAnalysis: It's easy to think shootout with these two teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. The oddsmaker certainly thinks so posting the highest Super Bowl total ever.


Atlanta has a record-setting offense. Brady had another epic season. But a lot has to go right for a total to go above this number. These offenses are actually so precise that it's a factor for the under. Let me explain that.


Neither team turns the ball over. They each had 11 giveaways during the season, tying for the lowest mark. The Falcons have had only one turnover in their last six games. So this should be a clean game meaning no short drives based on great field position off a turnover, or a fluke defensive touchdown.


The Patriots have a bend-but-don't-break style of a well-crafted defense. They led the NFL in fewest points allowed at 15.6 per game. Yes, the Patriots played easy offensive opponents and weak quarterbacks in most of their games. But surrendering fewer than 16 points a game for an entire season still is impressive. New England has a very strong secondary. Malcolm Butler and Devin McCourty are elite players.


There probably isn't a more well-coached defense than the Patriots. Having two weeks to prepare is huge, too, for the Patriots. Only three opponents have scored 30 plus points in 33 playoff games against Belichick. In 18 of those 33 games, playoff foes scored 20 points or less.


The Falcons offense is too diversified and playing at too high of a level to hold completely down. But they are not in Georgia Dome, could accumulate some rust with the layoff and won't be able to make many long gains against a New England defense geared to prevent big plays. It's going to take long patient drives for the Falcons - featuring a balanced attack - for them to get points. Any drive resulting in a field goal instead of a touchdown is a win for the under with a total this high.


Atlanta's defense has improved as the season progressed so its overall statistics are skewed. The Falcons have held five of their last six opponents to 21 or fewer points. Dan Quinn has transformed the Falcons from a finesse defense weak in the trenches into an aggressive, hard-hitting unit that found the right blitzing lanes against Aaron Rodgers in the NFC title game. Vic Beasley Jr. led the NFL in sacks. The Patriots also are without their No. 1 receiving weapon, Rob Gronkowski.


The way to beat Atlanta is ball-control with a lot of power running. The Patriots can do that with LeGarrette Blount mixed up with Brady moving the chains with short passes. That's an effective attack. It's also time consuming.


It's asking a lot for a touchdown to result after each long drive. That's what needs to happen, though, when you have an over/under in this record range. I don't see it occurring frequently enough. Under is the way to go.


Super Bowl Props

I find this Super Bowl harder than most for individual player props, which I normally like to specialize in, because these offenses spread things around so much. Any fantasy football player can tell you how difficult it is to project what Patriots will do well on any given week because their game plans can either go run heavy with LeGarrette Blount, or pass happy with a different receiver featured. I do think the Patriots will try to get Dion Lewis free in space against Atlanta linebackers so I would look to bet Lewis Over 2 receptions.
My top prop, though, is laying around $1.75 on NO there will not be a special teams, or defensive touchdown. Neither team has a dangerous kick returner and both teams tied for the fewest giveaways during the regular season with just 11. Atlanta has turned the ball over once in its last six games. Brady doesn't throw interceptions unless he's heavily pressured and Atlanta lacks a great pass rush.


Pick Made: Jan 23 2017 9:36PM PST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

5* Patriots -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Ryan



Feb 05 '17, 6:30 PM
NFL | Patriots vs Falcons

Play on: Patriots -3 -105

50* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Atlanta Falcons in 2017 Super Bowl action set to start at 6:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by 7 or more points. We also like the adjusted spread of Patriots -10 ½ that currently pays 220/100 and Patriots -14 ½ that pays +450/100. So, make these prop adjusted line wagers no more than 20% of your normal wager on our plays. So, a $500 wager becomes a $100 wager for the prop bets.
More prop bets:
1. Will the team that scores first win the game? NO pays +130 Obviously, we are playing for Atlanta to get out fast.
2. Total FG made Over 3 ½ -125
3. Patriots win by 11 to 13 +1100
4. Falcons lead at the Half and Patriots win + 350
5. Who will have more I.Thomas (Celtics) or Patriots total points. Patriots – ½ -105
6. Who will have more Celtics 1H points or L. Blount rushing yards. Blount -1 ½ -120
7. MVP – Chris Hogan at 30:1
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-4 mark good for 90% winners and has made 30.2 units/unit wagered since 2006. Play on favorites vs. the money line (NEW ENGLAND) quick starting team outscoring opponents by 5+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
Patriots are 41-16 ATS (+23.4 Units) when they rush for 125 to 150 yards
Patriots are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons.
Patriots are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play this season.
Patriots are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) facing below-average defensive teams allowing greater than 5.65 yards/play this season.
Patriots are 18-1 against the money line (+14.9 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons.
And here is the one major situation that also supported Denver last year in Super Bowl 50. Teams coming off any playoff game that scored 40 or more points are just 11-18 SU and 4-25 ATS in the next game in all playoff and SB games played since 1996. Fine tuning this a bit, we find these high-powered offenses come crashing to earth with a 1-7 SU and 1-7 ATS mark when scoring when scoring more than 40 points, ATS win, and zero TO since 2000.
Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Patriots.
The Falcons were gashed for 208 rushing yards against the Eagles in Week 10 and then allowed more than 99 rushing yards in every game since. These yards were gained between the tackles and the Eagles exploited that weakness. In our opinion, it is very likely that the Patriots game plan will be to establish and dominate the line of scrimmage with a pounding rushing attack led by Blount and augmented by Lewis and others. This will then open up play action for Brady allowing him more than enough time to scan the field and identify the best opportunity and deliver accurately for big gains. This is where Chris Hogan may shine and has a shot at the MVP. He is a strong and big WR, who runs excellent routes on every down and creates space to receive the ball and then gain more yards after the catch. Of all the Patriots WR, he may be the one that creates the most space in his routes and is extremely smart after the catch.
The Patriots defense gets hardly any real credit from the TV talking heads. In our opinion, there is no doubt that the Patriots defense will create major read issues for Ryan.
Now, the expected game plan is that the mythical Belichick will design a scheme to take away Julio Jones. However, if you look at previous games this season, Antonio Brown and AJ Green had monster games, but their offenses still score less than 20 points.
The Patriots rank second in the NFL this season in corner shadowing. This means that they allocate a corner to cover the same WR for the majority of the game. In this scheme, we think the surprise move will be to put Rowe on Jones. Butler has the elite speed, but not the size to cover Jones consistently, but using Rowe and then occasionally Butler will create that unpredictability that eliminates any OC to anticipate matchups in any down situation.
The Patriots used the blitz on 25% percent of their opponents’ drop backs this season ranking 26th-highest rate in the league. But Belichick takes ‘not blitzing’ a step further by only rushing three defenders or fewer on 26% of their passing plays this season. That’s far and away an outlier in the NFL today with the Cowboys next closest, at 19%, and the majority of teams are under 10%. On first downs, New England used it 21% of the time and on every single down, except for fourth, they are more likely to rush three players than to blitz.
The biggest single advantage in dropping eight into coverage is that it allows for a double team without eliminate the underneath coverage man that is present in a four-man rush. This also allows for one corner (Rowe) to man-up against Jones and the other 7 defenders in zone scheme. Last, this scheme takes away WR and RB screens from Atlanta’s play calling. Patriots allowed all of 77 yards on screen plays this year. The next closest team was the Buccaneers, at 164, and the league average was 315.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

NBA SuPick Okl City -4 1/2

Gold Keys NE Pats -3, CBB IOWA -6, opinion UNDER the total 59 Super Bowl

freePlay Temple -15