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5-Unit Play. Take #526 UT-Arlington (-9.5) over Troy (8 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #534 Virginia Tech (+1.5) over Miami (9 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #535 Samford (+11) over Mercer (7 p.m.) AND Take #526 UT-Arlington (-4.5) over Troy (8 p.m.)
I have a lean on Arkansas-Little Rock as well.890 Toledo (-7.5) over Central Michigan (6 p.m.)
7* graded play on Virginia as they take on North Carolina in ACC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UVA will win this game. Given the favorable projections we like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 5.5* play on the line and a 1.5* play using the money line. However, the one single requirements is that we need a +135 Money line to validate the ROI for the combination wager. If it is not at +135, then simply make a 7* wager using the line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
UNC is just 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 3 seasons.
UNC is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons.
UVA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 3 seasons.
UVA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game this season.
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