12-23-08

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2008, 09:16 AM

Re: 12-23-08

The Booooj has a 10 unit play. He's 5-0 in Bowl games so far, hope he stays hot.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Quallcom Stadium, San Diego, California
10 units on TCU (-3) over Boise St.
Boise St. (12-0) vs. TCU (10-2)- In what is one of the most anticipated matchups of the Bowl season two of this year’s most fascinating teams face off in San Diego. Boise St. comes in looking to prove that they deserved a BCS bid, while TCU is looking for redemption from a late season loss to Utah, which sent the Utes to the BCS rather than TCU. All the talk coming into this game is surrounding the matchup of Boise St’s high flying offense vs. TCU’s dominating defense, however the Bronco’s defense should not be overlooked. They should be able to cause some problems for Andy Dalton and the Frogs offense. Aaron Brown will be critical to the TCU offenses success in this one. If he can make plays in the running game and get the tough yards to stay ahead of the chains, TCU should be able to keep its offense on the field. Boise St. will look to Redshirt Freshman QB Kellen Moore throw the ball to relax TCU’s ferocious run defense, but All-American defensive end Jerry Hughes will make sure Moore doesn’t get comfortable in the pocket. Hughes leads the nation with 14 sacks, and will look to add a couple more tonight on the big stage. If TCU can prevent the Bronco’s from any big trick plays, they should be able to slow down the Boise offense. One X-factor in tonight’s game could be the field goal kickers, both teams have struggled in this area, and with points at a premium, it could come down to which team’s kicker doesn’t leave any points on the field. In the end TCU’s defense will prove too much for the Boise offense to handle and their offense should be able to put up enough points to get the win. TCU by 6-10.

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2008, 09:16 AM

Re: 12-23-08

Fairway Jay
Big Drive: TCU

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2008, 01:19 PM

Re: 12-23-08

RAS sides? Thanks
St Louis-3
Hofstra -4.5
New Mexico State +10.5

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2008, 01:19 PM

Re: 12-23-08

Robert Ferringo Hoops

1.5-Unit Play. Take #547 Wyoming (+19) over UCLA (10 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 23)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #553 Stanford (-4) over Santa Clara (11 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 23)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #536 Missouri (-3) over Illinois (7:30 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 23)

1-Unit Play. Take #545 Texas (-1) over Wisconsin (9:30 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 23)

1-Unit Play. Take #539 SMU (+17) over Northwestern (8 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 23)

1-Unit Play. Take #565 Niagara (-2.5) over St. Bonaventure (7 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 23)

1-Unit Play. Take #530 Xavier (-7.5) over Butler (7 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 23)

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2008, 01:19 PM

Re: 12-23-08

JEFF BENTON

Tuesday's winners ...
15 Dime: TCU (minus the points vs. Boise State)

5 Dime: ROCKETS (plus the points vs. Cavaliers)

5 Dime: TEXAS (minus the points vs. Wisconsin)

TCU

How can a 10-2 team be favored over a 12-0 squad? Because the 10-2 team is better and has faced much stiffer competition, that’s how! TCU’s two defeats this year came against teams that are in BCS Bowl games and are a combined 24-1. That would be Utah and Oklahoma. And when you consider that no objective observer would argue that TCU absolutely should’ve won at Utah and that the Horned Frogs held Oklahoma, which scored 60-plus points in its last five games and led the nation in scoring, to a season-low 35 points, well, it’s easy to understand this selection.

Look, I’m not about to disparage Boise State – frankly, I love the Broncos and love the fact they’re always pounding on the BCS door. However, you take away a lucky 37-32 win at Oregon way back in the third week of the season – the Ducks turned the ball over multiple times in that defeat – and here’s what you’ve got: Non-conference wins over Idaho State, Bowling Green and Southern Miss, as well as WAC victories over Hawaii, San Jose State, New Mexico State, Utah State, Idaho, Nevada and Fresno State. Not exactly Murderer’s Row there!

TCU, in addition to its losses to Utah and Oklahoma, crushed BYU, Stanford, New Mexico and Air Force, and won at Colorado State. Simply put, the Horned Frogs are more battle-tested. And you just cannot ignore what TCU did on defense this year, allowing 14 points or less to every team but Oklahoma. And in retrospect, that 35-10 loss in Norman, Okla., was pretty damn impressive, as the Sooners, who averaged 54 points per game, managed just seven points in the second half and managed just 25 net rushing yards!

TCU is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games, all under coach Gary Patterson, while Boise State lost to East Carolina in the Hawaii Bowl last season. Also, there’s no doubt that the Broncos are absolutely disappointed that they’re not playing in a BCS game, and that disappointment will show up on the field in San Diego tonight. Lay the chalk, as the Horned Frogs, who have scored more than 30 points in eight of their last 11 games, are favored for a reason.

Rockets

I’m sorry, I know that the Cavaliers are sensational and playing way above their heads. I also know that the Rockets are in the middle of a tough four-game road trip, which includes last night’s win at New Jersey. But this pointspread is ridiculous! I mean, Houston has scored 108, 107, 109 and 114 points in its last four games, and the Rockets have scored in triple digits in 11 of their last 16 games. They’ve won and covered four games in a row, and they’re 14-5 SU in their last 19 games, including 7-3 SU and ATS on the road.

Additionally, the Rockets are an impressive 41-18-1 ATS n their last 60 games against teams from the Eastern Conference, including 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Central Division. They’ve also cashed in eight of their last 10 games against the Cavaliers, going 8-2 ATS during this stretch, including winning both meetings last year by margins of 16 and 8 points – and yes, LeBron James played in both of those games for the Cavaliers. In fact, in the last four meetings – three of which Houston won – Cleveland has averaged just 77.5 ppg.

Bottom line: Houston, which entered this season as a darkhorse pick to win the stacked Western Conference, is playing its best basketball of the season right now. Because of that, I just cannot pass up these generous points – especially since the Rockets have been an underdog of more than five points just once all season. Play the underdog.

Texas

The oddsmakers are telling us something with this pointspread. I mean, both teams are 9-2 on the season, Texas has yet to play on an opponent’s home court, Wisconsin is 6-0 in its building this season, the Badgers beat the Longhorns in Austin last year … and Texas is favored tonight? Why do you think that is? Because the Longhorns are better, simple as that.

Texas has faced such quality opponents as UCLA, Notre Dame, St. Joe’s, Villanova and Michigan State, and while it lost to the Irish and Spartans, those two defeats were by a total of five points. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has played just two Top 25 teams to this point, and not only did the Badgers lose both of those games to Marquette and UConn, they scored just 57 and 58 points!

In fact, Wisconsin has managed 60 points or fewer in five of its last nine games, and that includes matchups against Coppin State (57 points), Idaho State (60 points) and Iona (60 points). Meanwhile, Texas is averaging 73.3 points per game, scoring at least 67 points in 10 of their 11 contests this season. In the end, this is a big home game for Wisconsin, but the Badgers just do not have the scoring punch to hang with the 5th-ranked team in the nation. Respect the oddsmaker’s number and lay the small price with Texas.

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2008, 02:38 PM

Re: 12-23-08

Rob Homyak

5 units on Boise State + points

Oddsmakers currently have the Horned Frogs listed as 3-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game's total is sitting at 45.

Andy Dalton had a pair of touchdown passes in Week 13 to lead the Horned Frogs to a 44-10 win over Air Force.

The Horned Frogs managed to cover the 20-point spread in that contest, while the combined score went OVER the day's posted total (41.5).

Boise State exploded for 48 second half points in a 61-10 pounding of Fresno State in Week 14. Boise State covered the 22-point spread, and the 71 points sailed OVER the posted total of 58.

Ian Johnson rushed for 130 yards with two touchdowns to lead Boise State. Kellen Moore completed 17-of-23 for 217 yards with two TD's in the win.

Boise State has gone unbeaten in three of the last five regular seasons, has won ten games or more in seven of the last nine seasons, and has won 108 games in the last ten seasons. Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Boise State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2008, 02:38 PM

Re: 12-23-08

Christian Alexander's Pick Pack 4-0 so far in the bowls

NCAA Football Bowl Package
Premium Plays
Matchup: TCU at Boise State
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Tue)

Play: TCU (-2.5 -110)
Line Source: Sports.com
Posted on: December 20, 2008 @ 12:10:08 PM EST

Very interesting matchup as you have the undefeated Boise State Broncos, a program feeling passed over since they are undefeated yet left out of the BCS bowl picture. Broncos fans would be quite to remind you that just a couple years ago they proved they belonged on the big stage when they upset Oklahoma in what has to be one of the greatest football games I have ever seen.

And on the other side you have the 10-2 TCU Horned Frogs, a team that lost at Oklahoma - certainly excusable - and let one slip away at Utah - a undefeated team that basically took Boise State's spot in the BCS.

Despite Boise State not only being undefeated but also winning every game by just over 27 points a game, I'm siding with the two loss Horned Frogs. Why? Two words, DE - FENSE.

Behind the 12th-ranked offense in the nation, Boise State has basically run away from teams this year, putting up nearly 40 points a game.

But the Broncos might have to find a new strategy to get past TCU. That's because the Horned Frogs have the 2nd ranked scoring defense in college football, holding teams to just 10 points a game - only Southern California is better. (7.8 ppg)

Only three times this season was Boise State held to less than 30 points and in all three of those games the Broncos opponents only scored seven points.

In that regard, this game will be different than any other Boise has played. TCU will hold the Boise offense to roughly 20 points, or less, and the Horned Frogs will be able to score right along with them.

TCU is used to winning in this fashion and Boise will be in foreign territory. Advantage TCU.

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2008, 02:39 PM

Re: 12-23-08

seabass

20 laker under
20* ok city
20* miami
20* portland
20* samford

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2008, 02:39 PM

Re: 12-23-08

Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks - Tuesday December 23, 2008 7:00 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Oklahoma City Thunder +12 (-110)

It's not just that Hawks (as in the Atlanta Hawks) are natural enemies of owls (as in Nite Owl Sports). We actually like Okla City to cover the point spread against these Hawks in this battle of evenly matched teams. Yes, we hear most of you asking how we could possibly say that the 17-10 Atlanta Hawks and the 3-25 Okla City Thunder, the "Rodney Dangerfields" of TY's NBA, are "evenly matched teams." But in the world of point spreads that we deal in, they are basically even, with Okies at 16-12 and Hawks ar 16-11. But that's where the point spread similarity stops, as Okies are a virtual ATM machine at 9-2 ATS as double digit road dogs, the role they find themselves in tonite, and practically every other time they play on the road. And if you delete the result of their game at Cleve, who has been beating virtually every opponent they have faced at home TY by 20>, the average MOL (margin of loss) for Okies is just 8 ppg as a double digit road dog.While Okie's 1-12 SU road record is pretty ugly, the sow's ear turns into a silk purse the more times they win for you ATS in that role. And although Okies used to be the Seattle Sonics, they still have the same core group of players (as when they were the Sonics), and with Seattle having won its last 5 games in Atlanta both SU and ATS, most of the players on this team have good memories of Phillips Arena, which helps with the confidence factor.

Looking at Atlanta, we see a tale of two teams, -- one the that plays up to the level of its competition, going 9-2 ATS TY vs teams > .500, including 4-0 ATS at home, with a recent upset win over Cleve and a near upset win over the defending champs Boston Celtics in the game after that; but then there's the "other" Atlanta team that plays down to the level of its competition, going just 4-9 ATS vs teams under .500 like Okies, incl 2-6 ATS at home vs such sub .500 teams. And that other Atlanta team, which we expect to be the one taking the floor tonite, is 2-6 ATS as home faves of 7> points, with an average MOV (margin of victory) of just 4.5 points in those 8 games. And with Hawks already having beaten this team in Okla City earlier TY, and with team at home over Christmas and the players being able to spend the Christmas holiday with their families, we don't expect a very focused or intense effort from these Hawks tonite, at least not enough of one to beat this lofty spread.

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2008, 02:40 PM

Re: 12-23-08

ATS has released their financial picks for the next two days, they are:

3 units on the under 45 1/2 on TCU and Boise

3 units on ND - 1 1/2 over Hawaii tomorrow night.

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2008, 02:40 PM

Re: 12-23-08

DOC

4-Unit Play - Totals Game of the Week - #509 Take Philadelphia/Boston UNDER ( 7:30 p.m. EST , Tuesday) You have got to love a total in the mid 190s when two of the Top 10 defensive teams in the NBA are involved. And that is what we are presented with on Tuesday night. We see this as a public line and the square bettors seem to be jumping on the over here. Just because Philadelphia is a pretty bad team doesn’t mean they can’t play good D. The Sixers have allowed only 93 PPG on defense in their last eight contests, even though they have only won half those games. This is also not a very explosive offense as they average only 91 PPG on the road. They will face a tough task tonight against a Boston defense that is No. 2 for PPG and No. 1 for defensive FG%. Three straight meetings in this series have gone under the posted total. We had this game capped in the high 180s so we think there is some very nice value here.

3 Unit Play. #546 Take Wisconsin over Texas (9:30 pm ESPN 2) For some reason the Horns just have trouble beating Big 10 teams. They lost to Michigan State and Wisconsin last year and just loss to Michigan State on Saturday. Wisconsin has won four of the five meetings and is 6-0 at home this season. The Badgers have an outstanding record at home under Bo Ryan and have played to their competition this season. They will rise up and knock off Texas and win this game straight-up.

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2008, 02:40 PM

Re: 12-23-08

JOHN RYAN

Ai Simulator 7* graded play UNDER Boise State/TCU - AiS shows an 85% probability that 46 or fewer points will be scored in this game. TCU defense is quite good and they will make it very difficult for Boise to run the ball. AiS shows a 90% probability that TCU will allow 2.5 rushing yards per attempt or less in this game. Note that they are a solid 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) when they allow less than 2.5 rushing yards per attempt over the last 2 seasons.Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 26-8 for 77% since 1997. Play under with any team against the total in a bowl game and in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences. Here is a second system that has gone 343-14 ATS for 75% ATS since 1992. Play under in December games with all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 off a home win facing a conference rival. Boise is in a strong UNDER role noting they are 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) off a home win by 17 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Boise HC Peterson is a strong 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) off a home blowout win by 28 points or more. TCU has played a far tougher schedule than Boise and is one of the many reasons they are favored over an undefeated team. I see the TCU defense completely minimizing the Boise offense. Boise will have no running game to speak of adn that will be big trouble for them as TCU will use pro style blitz schemes that they have yet to face. Boise has been practicing against these schemes, but they cannot practice at the same speed and quickness that TCU possesses. As an optional consideration I also like TCU for a small play. Take the UNDER for 7*.

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2008, 02:40 PM

Re: 12-23-08

Rocketman NHL

5* St Louis +335

**Mr. IWS** · 12-23-2008, 02:41 PM

Re: 12-23-08

Tuesday ATS Lock Club
5 TCU -3
4 Wisconsin +1.5
3 Kent +7

Wednesday
3 Notre Dame -1.5
No Hoops

Thursday
No Football
3 Celtics small dog

ATS Financial Package
3 Under 45.5 TCU/Boise
3 St Mary's -7.5
3 Hawaii -5

Wednesday
3 Notre Dame -1.5
No Hoops

Thursday
3 Magic small Favorite

12-23-08

12-23-08

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment