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sportscashsystem:
Main System Current Bet Level: Bet Level 4
Here's Your Sports Cash System MAIN System Play of the Day for Today:
Toronto Blue Jay +1 1/2 over Tampa Bay Rays (Spread Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 4:10 PM EST
Also, listed below is your 3 extra bonus systems for today: (follow these 3 extra bonus systems to make extra profits)
*We recommend following these 3 extra bonus systems exactly the same method we teach for the main system play of the day (Step 1 video). Listed below you will see the bet level for each system, the pick, type of bet, and the sport.
Extra System #1: Houston Astros -1 1/2 overLos Angeles Angels (Spread Bet)(Bet Level 4)(MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 9:05 PM EST
Extra System #2 Detroit Tigers +1 1/2 over Oakland Athletics (Spread Bet)(Bet Level 1) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 9:05 PM EST
Extra System #3: Washington Nationals -1 1/2 overPhiladelphia Phillies (Spread Bet) (Bet Level 1) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 7:05 PM EST -
Kentucky Derby 143 Wizard (DRF)
EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE VERIFY BEFORE WAGERING
Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands Grade 1
RACE 12 Post Time 6:46 1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 Kentucky
Derby Presented By Yum! Brands | Purse: $ 2,000,000
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 12-13-14) Super Hi-5
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Lookin At Lee Lanerie C Asmussen S 126 $0 L 20-1
2 2 Thunder Snow (IRE) Soumillon C bin Suroor S 126 $0 L 20-1
3 3 Fast and Accurate Hill C Maker M 126 $0 L 50-1
4 4 Untrapped Santana, Jr. R Asmussen S 126 $0 Blk-Off L 30-1
5 5 Always Dreaming Velazquez J Pletcher T 126 $0 L 5-1
6 6 State of Honor Lezcano J Casse M 126 $0 L 30-1
7 7 Girvin Smith M Sharp J 126 $0 L 15-1
8 8 Hence Geroux F Asmussen S 126 $0 L 15-1
9 9 Irap Gutierrez M O'Neill D 126 $0 L 20-1
10 10 Gunnevera Castellano J Sano A 126 $0 L 15-1
11 11 Battle of Midway Prat F Hollendorfer J 126 $0 L 30-1
12 12 Sonneteer Desormeaux K Desormeaux J 126 $0 L 50-1
13 13 J Boys Echo Saez L Romans D 126 $0 L 20-1
14 14 Classic Empire Leparoux J Casse M 126 $0 L 4-1
15 15 McCraken Hernandez, Jr. B Wilkes I 126 $0 L 5-1
16 16 Tapwrit Ortiz J Pletcher T 126 $0 L 20-1
17 17 Irish War Cry Maragh R Motion H 126 $0 L 6-1
18 18 Gormley Espinoza V Shirreffs J 126 $0 L 15-1
19 19 Practical Joke Rosario J Brown C 126 $0 L 20-1
20 20 Patch Gaffalione T Pletcher T 126 $0 L 30-1
Pace Scenario
* WEATHER REPORT * HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH MORE INTERMITTANT
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY THERE IS A 50 % OF SHOWERS, BUT IT'S MORE LIKELY GOING TO OCCUR LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON IF IT RAINS AT ALL. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK CONDITIONS AT CHURCHILL WHEN THE DERBY
IS RUN AT 6:34 PM (EASTERN), THE WIZARD'S SELECTIONS AND WAGERING STRATEGIES REMAIN THE SAME!
************************************************** ************************************************** ************************************************** ****************
PACE SCENARIO: Fast and Accurate, State of Honor and Battle of Midway will all contest the early lead leaving the gate with
Thunder Snow, Always Dreaming, Irap, Gormley and Irish Way Cry taking up the chase into the clubhouse turn. The second flight
of horses sorting themselves out entering the backstretch will be Girvin, Classic Empire, J Boys Echo, Practical Joke,Tapwrit,
Untrapped, Patch and McCraken. The back markers will be Lookin At Lee, Sonneteer, Gunnevera and Hence. The fractions are
expected to be lively, which will give the stalkers, mid-pack runners and even a couple of the deep closers every chance to make
to make an impact in the stretch drive.
Page 2 of 9
M/L Jockey Trainer
1st Selection #15 MCCRAKEN 5-1 HERNANDEZ, JR. B WILKES I
If you are looking for a 'Horse for this Course', look no further than this 3-year old son of Ghostzapper, winner of the 2004
Breeders' Cup Classic run at the same distance as the Kentucky Derby. McCracken is a perfect 3-3 over the Churchill Downs
main track, all as a 2-year old.
Trainer Ian Wilkes is not known to win with a juvenile first time starter sprinting, but McCaraken was not aware of this fact. Rating
comfortably in mid-pack, jockey Brian Hernandez shifted him off the inside in mid-stretch and with giant strides, engulfed the
front runners on his way to a convincing debut win going 6 1/2 furlongs. 4 weeks later, McCracken stretched out to 1-turn mile
and into a small stake. With a bold wide sweeping move around the far turn, McCracken took command at the top of the stretch
and drew off to another impressive win. He would face his toughest challenge November 26 in a Grade 2 stake going 2-turns for
the first time. Despite breaking from post 11 in a 12-horse field, McCracken once again passed his rivals one-by-one from well
off the pace with an impressive wide sweeping move around the far turn until drawing clear inside the 1/8th pole, winning as the
odds-on favorite and stamping himself as one of the early favorites for the 2017 Kentucky Derby.
McCraken would resurface 77 days later at Tampa Bay Downs in the Grade 3 Sam Davis. Sent off the 3-2 favorite, he did not
disappoint his backers with a 'workman like' 1 1/2 length victory. Hernandez saved valuable ground along the rail until angling him
outside midway on the far turn to begin his explosive late kick. In a career best performance in his 3-year old debut, McCracken
picked up where he left off, stretching his undefeated record to a perfect 4-4 with the Tampa Bay Derby his next stop.
17 days after the Sam Davis, Wilkes announced that McCracken would miss the Tampa Derby Derby after being diagnosed
with a 'very minor injury' to his left front ankle. He would instead be pointed for the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. McCraken
facing only 6 rivals as the 8-5 favorite, was unable to make any impact on the 31-1 upset winner Irap and Practical Joke who
was 3 lengths clear of McCraken.
It could prove to be a big mistake if you place too much emphasis on McCraken's defeat, which will be the catalyst for a far more
generous price in the Kentucky Derby. There are several sound reasons to just 'draw a line' through his Blue Grass performance.
McCracken missed some training after the Sam Davis because of the issue with his ankle. I'm sure Wilkes played it safe not
to ask him for his best in several workouts leading up to the race. For the first time in his career, McCracken raced closer to
the leaders early on than ever before. He also raced between horses in tight quarters, with horses inside and outside of him,
and seeming to dislike the lack of clear racing room with Hernandez steadying him several times to try to get him to relax. Once
McCraken shook clear of the congestion and was taken outside of horses for the stretch run, the leader Irap and Practical Joke,
who had moved into second, both had spurted well clear of the rest. McCracken did finish up well over a track surface that was
favoring speed. He simply could not accelerate enough in the final 3/8th of a mile to cut into the leader's margin but still managed
to gallop out strong past the wire.
McCraken is set for vastly improved performance in the Kentucky Derby. He will be making his third start off a layoff, which is
usually the best race in a horse's form cycle, especially off a regression. McCraken is a horse where the human connections
mean a lot to me. His trainer Ian Wilkes worked for only 2 trainers before going out on his own in 2005. Wilkes a native Australian,
worked for leading Aussie horseman Colin Hayes before taking a job in the US in 1990 with Carl Nafzger. That same year, Wilkes
played a vital role in Unbridled's Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic victories. Similar to McCraken's final Derby prep,
Unbridled also finished third in the Blue Grass. Wilkes learned under a master 'old school' horseman, to get a horse to peak
for a major stake race you are pointing for: 'you don't squeeze the lemon dry' in workouts or even 'prep' races leading up to
the big day. Wilkes has proven on other occasions that, like Nafzger, a race such as the Blue Grass, can be simply a 'stepping
stone' to the first Saturday in May.
A classic example of Wilkes training prowess was Fort Larned, winner of the 2012 Breeders' Cup Classic following a third-place
finish 35 days earlier in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park. Both Fort Larned and McCraken are owned and
bred by Janice Whitham, who also owned the great Bayakoa, winner of 13 Grade 1 stakes including back-to-back renewals of
the Breeders' Cup Distaff. There is much to like with McCraken, who is on a short list of horses the Wizard feels can win this
year's Kentucky Derby. His workouts at Churchill in the days leading up to the Derby have all been outstanding, which just points
out his affinity for this 'quirky' racing surface.
2nd Selection #17 IRISH WAR CRY 6-1 MARAGH R MOTION H
After closing from well back to win his debut last November sprinting at Laurel, Irish War Cry showed a complete new running
style fighting off several challenges on the front end to score a nose victory in a Maryland stake on New Year's Eve stretching
out from 6 furlongs to 7f.
The Holy Bull would be Irish War Cry's first start around 2 turns and his first time running on Lasix. He stamped himself as a
'horse to watch' on the Kentucky Derby trail going wire-to-wire in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. Joel Rosario who was aboard
Page 3 of 9
for the first time, rationed out his speed, setting a very comfortable and uncontested pace. The race was over at the top of the
stretch when Irish War Cry spurted well clear of his 6 rivals on his way to an easy 3 3/4 length victory.
Bet down to the 6-5 favorite 4 weeks later in the Fountain of Youth over the same Gulfstream strip, Irish War Cry was outrun for the
early lead. Rosario was content to sit second in perfect stalking position. On the far turn, Rosario asked Irish War Cry to attack the
front runner. He had no response and instead lost ground with every stride to finish a 'head scratching' 7th, beaten 21 3/4 lengths.
Irish War Cry would have one final chance to redeem himself shipping north to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial. The quandary
for handicappers is how to properly evaluate how a horse will rebound from uncharacteristic poor performance. The results of
the Wood Memorial would go a long way in determining if you simply had to put a line through Irish War Cry's Fountain of Youth
debacle. A jockey switch was made to Rajiv Maragh. Sent off at 7-2 odds, Maragh took Irish War Cry a couple lengths off the
lead into the clubhouse turn and got him nice and relaxed. The colt comfortably cruised up to the pacesetter's flanks entering
the far turn. The battle was on as he and Battalion Runner hooked up for their own personal duel, until Irish War Cry disposed
of his stubborn foe inside the 1/8th pole, edging clear to win by 3 1/2 lengths.
If you put a line through Irish War Cry's Fountain of Youth, he is a perfect 4-4. His decisive victories in the Holy Bull and Wood
Memorial stack up very well with the best races run by the major contenders for this year's Kentucky Derby. Trainer Graham
Motion won his first Derby in 2011 with Animal Kingdom, who upset the field at 21-1 odds, making his first start on dirt. If Irish
War Cry can once again bring his 'A' game to Churchill the first Saturday in May, I would consider him one of my win candidates.
3rd Selection # 8 HENCE 15-1 GEROUX F ASMUSSEN S
If Hence can replicate his victory last time out in the Sunland Derby, he is a major contender to win the Kentucky Derby. It's a big
'if', because Hence will have to overcome several obstacles that could stand in his way. Mind that Bird parlayed a fourth-place
finish in the little known Sunland Derby at the time, to a 50-1 upset victory in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. Hence won't be that long
a price, but if he is to win like Mind that Bird, he will also do it from well off the pace.
Hence debuted at 6 furlongs at Saratoga. Dead on the board at 25-1, his seventh-place finish was a complete throw-out at a
distance which was far too short for him. He improved dramatically when stretched out to a route in his next 2 starts, a second
and third place finish, which were both 'better than they look on paper', especially his narrow defeat November 13 at Churchill.
After showing no early speed in his first 2 starts, Hence battled for the lead from start to finish, losing by a neck to the very
talented Greeley and Ben.
Hence would return 2 month later making his first start as a 3-year old over a sloppy track at Oaklawn. He was an entry-mate
with Calumet Farms Horse Fly with the pair running 1-2. Hence was victorious, but you had to watch the race to really appreciate
how good he ran. After stumbling badly leaving the gate, Hence settled in mid-pack racing between horses. On the far turn, he
unleashed a strong wide rally to hook his mate. In mid-stretch, Hence began to edge clear, but as soon as he began distancing
himself from Horse Fly, Hence ducked in sharply despite left hand whipping, almost hitting the rail with his rider holding on for
dear life. Horse Fly regained the lead in deep stretch looking like a sure winner, until Hence got back on stride and re-rallied
to edge clear in the shadow of the wire.
Hence was sent off at 23-1 in the Southwest Stakes 25 days later at Oaklawn. He was a no threat seventh, beaten 13 lengths,
but only the top 2 finishers did any running. One Liner easily won the race by 3 1/2 lengths and the second- place finisher Petrov
was 8 1/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. There was a log jam for the show spot, with only 1-length separating the next
5 finishers.
Hence would ship to Sunland Park for the Sunland Derby for his final Derby prep. He could have not been more impressive
drawing off to win by 3 3/4 widening lengths at 10-1. Hence was content to lay back in tenth place far off the early leaders onto
the backstretch. Local Sunland Park rider Alfredo Juarez, who was aboard Hence for the first time, eased his mount outside of
horses and clear of any potential traffic. Juarez made a premature move midway on the far turn. He responded instantly picking
up horses one-by-one. As the field straightened away into the stretch, Hence had begun to inch clear of Conquest Mo Money
and on his way to an easy win. What was so impressive is that he could sustain that long a run and still have plenty left at the
finish with a strong gallop out past the wire.
Trainer Steve Asmussen shipped Hence to Churchill Downs soon after the race to begin training for the Kentucky Derby. He's
been adapting well to the Churchill. The key to Hence's success in the Kentucky Derby will be the trip he gets. He prefers to race
outside of horses and clear of any trouble. He is not an agile performer who can race in traffic and quickly regain his stride if
stopped. Hence appears uncomfortable racing in between horses, so that is why his rider will have to be content to keep Hence
wide throughout to avoid the possibility of a tough journey. It's the best option to give Hence every chance to fire a big shot. How
much ground he loses could prove 'key' in the end, but if everything falls his way, and the jock times his move perfectly, Hence
is clearly a danger to win the Derby at generous odds.
Page 4 of 9
4th Selection #14 CLASSIC EMPIRE 4-1 LEPAROUX J CASSE M
Last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner was disappointing at 1-2 odds when fading to third in the Grade 2 Holy Bull at
Gulfstream in his 3-year-old debut when returning from a 3-month layoff. Classic Empire raced up close chasing the wire-to-wire
winner who coasted on the lead setting comfortable fractions. When asked by jockey Juliean Leparoux to go after the front runner
turning for home, Classic Empire had no response. Trainer Mark Casse said afterwards that he emerged from the Holy Bull with
a foot abscess. After recovering from the abscess, Classic Empire twice balked at working at the Palm Meadows training center
in south Florida. He was treated for an apparent back injury, then was rerouted to Winding Oaks Farm in Ocala, Florida where
he could return to a regular work pattern in preparation for the Arkansas Derby.
Bet down to the 9-5 favorite, Classic Empire rebounded with a hard-fought victory, stamping himself as one of the favorites for the
Kentucky Derby. He received a perfect ride by Leparoux, who got him to relax racing in mid pack between horses and covered up
until easing Classic Empire outside of horses and clear of trouble for the stretch drive. With a determined rally down the middle
of the track where the footing was best that afternoon, he edged clear in the very late stages of the race. Classic Empire clearly
benefitted by a contested lively pace and a picture-perfect ride.
Classic Empire is the type of horse I will be playing against to win the Kentucky Derby. The negatives outweigh the positives.
His setbacks this year and the short 21-day turnaround between the Arkansas and Kentucky Derbies is too quick for my liking.
Classic Empire needs too much to go his way and that will be difficult in a 20-horse field with 160,000 + spectators in attendance.
He has shown a tendency to break slowly from the gate. He's not a very athletic horse who can easily overcome traffic, which he
will likely encounter. Classic Empire also does not give me the impression that he will have the same kind of late kick stretching
out to 1 1/4 miles. He is 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs which is a plus. He scored over a sloppy surface going 4 1/2 in his debut at
1-2 odds and in his second start in a Grade 2 stake at 6 furlongs on a dry track..
5th Selection # 5 ALWAYS DREAMING 5-1 VELAZQUEZ J PLETCHER T
Trainer Todd Pletcher has missed the Derby just once since 2000, in 2003, and has started 17 horses since winning with Super
Saver in 2010. He's 1-for-45 all-time in the Run for the Roses. Pletcher will have 5 horses in the starting gate in this year's
Kentucky Derby. He sent a record five starters into the Derby in 2007 and 2013, and started four in 2000, 2010 and 2014. The
stable twice had likely Derby favorites, Uncle Mo in 2011 and Eskendereya in 2010, who were sidelined just before the race.
Uncle Mo came down with an illness and Eskendereya suffered an injury.
Always Dreaming will be the colt who is expected to be the shortest price of the 3 Pletcher runner's and might even vie for
favoritism. Since moving into his barn last fall after 2 failed maiden tries, both in sprints, for his former trainer Dominick Schettino,
Always Dreaming is a perfect 3-3 for the Pletcher barn since stretched out to 2 turns. Each of these 3 victories have been
accomplished racing on or near the lead from the start and then drawing off through the stretch and winning by margins of 11 1/2,
4 and 5 lengths. Always Dreaming's Florida Derby victory was by far his finest career performance and the race which becomes
the catalyst for the strong wagering action expected on him.
He trounced a weak field in his maiden win at 1-5 odds at Tampa Bay Downs off a 5-month layoff in his first start as a 3-year old.
38 days later Always Dreaming set very slow fractions while benefitting by a speed favoring track at Gulfstream to easily defeat
7 very weak rivals once again at 1-5 odds. The Florida Derby would be by far his toughest test. At first glance, Always Dreaming
appeared a great 'bet against' because of 2 perfect trip wins against weak fields that looked 'better on paper' than what they
really were. The only problem was that there were also knocks on the other contenders in what appeared to be a weak renewal
of the Florida Derby. Always Dreaming had a tactical edge and had the looks of the type of improving Pletcher 3-year old that
was set for a career best performance making his third start off a layoff.
The Florida Derby unfolded as I expected it to, with Always Dreaming stalking a perfect target to overhaul when asked by John
Velazquez. He cruised up to take the lead without much urging at the top of the stretch and drew off to an easy 5 length victory.
With 10 more rivals in the gate that Always Dreaming will encounter on Derby Day, he will contend with a much tougher pace
scenario. How he will respond when faced with a stiff challenge from the far turn to the finish line at Churchill, are all obstacles the
son of Bodemeister will have to answer. I have never been an advocate of selecting horses in the Kentucky Derby who have not
shown they can win a fierce pace battle with horses racing inside and outside of them. These battles go a long way in developing
the 'mental toughness' a horse needs to overcome the obstacles they could face in big races with large fields. Always Dreaming
stride and his physical built implies more of a middle-distance runner than one that will excel at 1 1/4 miles.
Nevertheless, even though I have presented several obstacles that could stand in Always Dreaming's way in winning the Derby,
the fact remains that he is a steadily improving 3-year old who could simply be better than his competition, in what so far appears
at best a very average 3-year old crop. With many of this year's Kentucky Derby field having zero chance to win, Always Dreaming
certainly has things to like and I would not be surprised if he proved best. The negatives I have outlined and the fact that he will
be over-bet and Pletcher's dismal record in the Derby (2 %), becomes a strategic wagering move to look elsewhere for other
intriguing horses with merits who could 'key' a more generous payoff.
Page 5 of 9
Always Dreaming has also been very unsettled in his morning workouts since arriving at Churchill. He has been fighting his
exercise rider, which has necessitated a switch to a new jockey and a change of equipment called draw reins. This essentially
provides the rider with a bit more leverage against the bit, making it more difficult for the horse to ignore his rider's cues through
the reins with the hopes have getting Always Dreaming to relax and not fight. This behavior if it continues does not bode well
for his chances on Derby day going 1 1/4 miles.
6th Selection #13 J BOYS ECHO 20-1 SAEZ L ROMANS D
I would refer to J Boys Echo as 'an all or nothing' proposition in the Kentucky Derby. If he runs a career best race and everything
set's up perfectly for him without a straw in his path, J Boys Echo has an outside chance to win at big odds and possibly hit
the board.
That's a lot to ask from a horse who has run only 1 race which merits any consideration that he is a Derby contender. That race
was 2 starts back in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct on the inner dirt track. J Boys Echo sat a picture-perfect trip, relaxing in
mid-pack, while biding his time rail on the rail entering the backstretch. A speed duel was percolating and the pace was quick to
help set up J Boys Echo closing move. He swept on by the tired leaders in mid-stretch and drew clear with complete authority
defeating 6 rivals. In the Blue Grass Stakes he was bumped at the start but recovered well enough to launch a closing rally of
which he had none.
In a 20-horse field, and having to rally from well back through traffic at a distance which could prove further than what he wants, J
Boys Echo appears up against it. I respect his trainer Dale Romans with a Churchill based runner, especially in 3-year-old stakes
races. At best, I will use J Boys Echo very small in some saver wagers only because I expect him to be in the vicinity of 30-1.
7th Selection #12 SONNETEER 50-1 DESORMEAUX K DESORMEAUX J
Trainer Keith Desormeaux will once again team up with his brother Kent, who will be aboard the quickly improving Sonneteer.
This dynamic duo hooked up with Exaggerator to finish second to Nyquist in last year's Kentucky Derby. Exaggerator turned the
tables on that rival winning the Preakness 2 weeks later.
Sonneteer has the distinction of being the only horse in this year's Derby field who is still a maiden, winless in 10 career starts. In
past years, I would not even dedicate more than a few lines with the merits of a horse likes this, but in a year where there are only
a select few I can see winning the Derby, there are many who can fill out an exacta, trifecta and a superfecta wager. Sonneteer
is one of those, and at a very big price. His last 2 starts shipping out of the state of California into Arkansas and Oaklawn Park
seemed to do wonders for him. After a troubled start, Sonneteer rallied from far back along the inside to finish a good second at
112-1. In the Arkansas Derby, the son of Midnight Lute made up ground at every call to finish fourth, beaten 2 lengths. Whether
it was his affinity for the Oaklawn dirt surface or that Sonneteer had turned the corner, he has the look of a horse who may be
able to move forward once again on the stretch out to 1 1/4 miles.
Sonneteer is a deep 1-run closer who must have a clean trip every step of the way to have any chance of hitting the board. It's
impossible for me to envision a maiden and a horse who only once has finished less than a length back of the victor in any of
his 10 starts winning the Kentucky Derby.
8th Selection # 1 LOOKIN AT LEE 20-1 LANERIE C ASMUSSEN S
Like Todd Pletcher, Steve Asmussen will also be represented by 3 horses in this year's Kentucky Derby. Lookin At Lee 'has
danced a lot of dances' with 9 career starts. He has won twice, both in sprints at Ellis Park last summer. Since then, Lookin At
Lee has been blanked from the winner's circle, even though on 2 occasions he ran very good races. His first was a second-place
finish to Classic Empire in the Grade 2 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October and his best race to date was last time out
when third to that same rival in the Arkansas Derby.
What is amazing to me when I look at Lookin At Lee's past performances, his 2 sprint wins he showed good tactical speed. The
speed began to dissipate with each passing start. Not even the addition of blinkers, which were added for the Breeders' Cup
Juvenile, and continuing for all 3 of his starts this year, could help get him involved in the early proceedings. Lookin At Lee had
become a dead 1 run closer who comes from 'out of the clouds'. This 'Silky Sullivan' style was on display in the Arkansas Derby,
but he was not as far back early as he was in his prior 4 starts. Lookin At Lee made up ground at every call, weaving his way
through traffic, inside and out, like a Nascar driver accelerating, while looking for a clear path to push down on the gas pedal full
throttle. If the race was a 1/16th of a mile further, Lookin At Lee may have won, which gives him a 'punchers' chance to land a
piece in the Kentucky Derby. If the fractions are quick enough and he can avoid traffic problems..
9th Selection #10 GUNNEVERA 15-1 CASTELLANO J SANO A
There is no disputing that Gunnevera is one of the most brilliant yearling purchases that the 'Wizard' can recall in recent years.
He was bought for $16,000 at the 2015 Keeneland fall sale, just $1000 more than the stud fee of his sire Dialed In.
Page 6 of 9
Gunnevera had only a maiden win at Gulfstream to his credit when he shipped to Saratoga to win a Grade 3 stake as the longest
price at 9-1 in a 5-horse field. 2 starts later, Gunnevera was victorious in another Grade 3 at Delta Downs, this time as the 5-2
favorite. With 3 wins in 6 starts as a 2-year old and $771,000 in earnings, he returned 67 days later, making his 3-year old debut
in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Gunnevera was no match for the wire-to-wire winner Irish War Cry, finishing second, 5 lengths
clear of last year's BC Juvenile winner Classic Empire. Benefitting from a pace melt-down and a perfectly timed off the pace
rally on a track kind to closers, Gunnevera would return to the winner's circle winning the Fountain of Youth by 5 3/4 lengths
in a career best performance.
The Florida Derby would go a long way in determining where Gunnevera was in the pecking order for Kentucky Derby contenders.
He was bet down to the 6-5 favorite. As he has done in many of races, Gunnevera showed no early speed, quickly finding himself
double-digit lengths away from the front runners in the early going while angling over to the rail from his outside post. He made
up ground at every call while saving ground until angling out turning for home. Gunnevera found his best stride too late to finish
a 'no threat third', beaten 6 1/2 lengths.
Gunnevera does not give me the impression of a horse who is peaking just right for the first Saturday in May. His stride is not
fluid at all and with his lack of speed in a big field where he will certainly have to navigate his way through traffic, this makes him
very vulnerable, especially going 1 1/4 miles. Even though trainer Antonio Sano has done a remarkable job developing this 3-
year old bargain basement purchase, the 'Wizard' would be surprised if Gunnevera continues this fairy tale story with a victory
in the Kentucky Derby.
10th Selection #11 BATTLE OF MIDWAY 30-1 PRAT F HOLLENDORFER J
Trainer Jerry Holendorfer has won many Grade 1 stakes in his illustrious career, including 3 Kentucky Oaks and 2 Breeders'
Cup races, earning him entry into Racing's Hall of Fame in 2011. The one prize that has eluded him is a victory in an American
Triple Crown race. It's unlikely this year that Battle of Midway will be the one to land Hollendorfer his first. Battle of Midway has
simply not accomplished enough or run fast enough.
He started his career on January 21 and in less than 4 months has been asked to run 4 times, stretching out in distance in each
race. His last 2 races have been gritty efforts going 2 turns. After winning his debut easily in fast time while dueling from the start,
Battle of Midway was a tough trip third as the odds on favorite 22 days later stepping up into a Grade 2 stake. He made amends
March 9 making his first start around 2 turns, scoring by a neck after sitting a good stalk and pounce trip. Battle of Midway exits
his best race to date when narrowly defeated in the Santa Anita Derby. He battled 'tooth and nail' along the rail from the start,
but was unable to hold off the late charge of Gormley, in race where several 3-year olds were bunched up at the finish.
Asking Battle of Midway to go 1 1/4 miles after 2 gut-wrenching performances is just too much to ask of him the first Saturday
in May. When the summer and fall rolls around, he has the pedigree, connections and plenty of upside to improve dramatically
and become one of the better 3-year olds. There have been many Kentucky Derby winners who have run in the Santa Anita
Derby, which is usually one of the 2 strongest 'Derby' prep races each year. This is not the case in 2017. The 3-year olds racing
in southern California at best are just an average crop at this point. 'The best is yet to come' for Battle of Midway, but not on
the first Saturday in May.
11th Selection #18 GORMLEY 15-1 ESPINOZA V SHIRREFFS J
No one handicapping the Santa Anita Derby would have predicted that Gormley would be taken off the pace after racing on
or near the lead in 4 of his 5 starts. Only in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile was he further back then second after bobbling at the
start. With several confirmed front runners in the Santa Anita Derby, it was likely that Gormley would be part of the pace battle
and, in the end, lose the war.
When the field was let loose from the gate, the mad scramble into the clubhouse turn began to percolate. Gormley was one of
the interested parties for the front end, but when he was caught in close quarters between speedsters to his inside and outside,
jockey Victor Espinoza had no choice but to wrangle him back and let the other 3 speeds begin their ensuing battle. Espinoza
eased Gormley to the rail and was content to sit about 5 lengths behind the leaders while able to get him to relax down the
backstretch. Approaching the stretch, Gormley was eased of the rail and taken to the outside in pursuit of the leaders. In deep
stretch, he edged clear from Battle of Midway and Royal Mo, who did all the dirty work up front to help set up his closing run.
The fact that Gormley could rate a bit, will certainly help him in his future races. It's no guarantee that Espinoza will be able to
resort to these same tactics in the Kentucky Derby. In a large field with all the hoopla in the minutes leading up to the race,
Gormley could be put on edge. When the gate opens, he just might want to go. He has never been an easy horse to take back
and no rider is stronger than a horse whose mind is on being part of a quick early pace.
My main concern is how effective he will be racing outside of southern California for the first time. 5 of his starts have been at
Santa Anita and his career debut was run at Del Mar. I also question the quality of competition Gormley has been facing. Even
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though the pace was quick in the Santa Anita Derby, the final time was not, and he was the beneficiary of those quick fractions,
running his last 1/8th of a mile in a slow :13 3/5 seconds.
12th Selection #16 TAPWRIT 20-1 ORTIZ J PLETCHER T
Kentucky Derby hopefuls can have an 'off' race in their final prep for the 'Run for the Roses'. There have been countless Derby
winners who exit a losing effort, but they either run respectable races or have some legitimate excuse. Tapwrit had neither. His
fifth-place finish, beaten 11 lengths in the Blue Grass, was simply a poor performance. The trouble line in his past performances
indicates 'unprepared for the start'. His bad gate habits have been his Achilles heel in several of his starts. This bad habit does
not bode well for Tapwrit if this occurs again in a 20-horse Derby field. Once he recovered, Tapwrit showed no run at any point,
especially in the stretch drive as the 2-1 second choice.
Tapwrit had shown steady improvement in winning 3 of his prior 4 starts, capped off with a decisive win in the Tampa Bay Derby.
His turn of foot that was on display in all 3 victories made him a major player in the Blue Grass. The fact that Tapwrit ran so
poorly, exposed him as a 3-year old who looked 'better on paper' than what he really is. He defeated a weak field with a perfect
trip in the Tampa Bay Derby and his first 2 wins were against horses who subsequently have come back to prove to be nothing
but Allowance horses at best. Tapwrit was a good second to McCracken in the Sam Davis at Tampa, but once again he sat a
perfect inside trip and was no match in the stages of the race.
Tapwrit is one of the 3 horses Todd Pletcher will be running in the Derby. He's a typical Pletcher high priced yearling purchase.
The son of top sire Tapit costs $1.2 million. Tapwrit is a very useful horse that should win stakes races down the road if spotted
correctly, but will probably not live up to his lofty purchase price as a race-horse. He does not have the 'look' of a Kentucky Derby
winner both from a quality standpoint and his ability to be able to handle the 1 1/4 miles successfully in a field of 20.
13th Selection #19 PRACTICAL JOKE 20-1 ROSARIO J BROWN C
If Practical Joke wins the Kentucky Derby, he will have to defy his pedigree that is slanted more to being most effective at middle
distances than at 1 1/4 miles. In 6 career starts, he has shown this to be a true statement.
Practical Joke showed all the qualities of a top-class juvenile in the summer and fall of 2016 and one to watch closely as a 3-
year old. He was an impressive off the pace winner as the 2-1 favorite in his debut going 6f at Saratoga. It's very difficult to win
a Grade 1 stake with just a maiden win and only 1 race under your belt, but Practical Joke accomplished this task winning the
Hopeful on closing day at the Spa. He would add another feather to his cap with a third straight win in the Grade 1 Champagne
at Belmont on October 8. Practical Joke would enter the Breeders' Cup Juvenile a perfect 3-3 showing steady improvement
stretching out in distance with each start. In the Breeder's Cup, Practical Joke would be going 2 turns for the first time. After a
troubled start and a wide trip, he rallied mildly for third, beaten nearly 8 lengths. Since his lone defeat, Practical Joke has run a
pair of seconds in both the Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass.
In defeat, his second-place finish to Irap in the Blue Grass was his best career performance. Breaking from an outside post,
Practical Joke made several moves chasing Irap, and was gaining slowly on the winner in deep stretch to miss by 3/4 of a length.
He was well clear of the 2 betting favorites McCraken and Tapwrit.
Practical Joke will enter the Kentucky Derby never having missed hitting the board in all 6 starts. He has the perfect running style
for the race where he can lay back in mid-pack about 10 lengths of the early leaders before making his move. He has never
failed to make a strong sustained rally and in the Derby, Practical Joke will do the same. The issue I have is that he has shown
that he cannot sustain it to the wire. All 3 of his wins have been around 1-turn as a 2-year old. Blinkers will be added for the first
time in the Derby to help Practical Joke from not losing his focus late. I expect him to loom dangerously turning for home, but
in the final 1/8th of a mile, he will likely not be able to sustain that run. He is trained by superb horseman Chad Brown, who will
no doubt earn a Kentucky Derby victory and likely more than one, when he decides to retire from the game. The Wizard does
not feel it will be Practical Joke who will provide Brown his first one.
14th Selection # 9 IRAP 20-1 GUTIERREZ M O'NEILL D
The trio of trainer Doug O'Neil, owner Paul Reddam and jockey Mario Guiterrez will look to win their third Kentucky Derby with
Irap. They won their first Derby in 2012 with I'll Have Another and again in 2016 with Nyquist. Irap exits a career best performance
upsetting 6 rivals in the Blue Grass at Keeneland at 31-1. He was making his 8th start that afternoon as a maiden. The closest
he came to winning prior to the Blue Grass was 3 seconds, finishing no closer than 2 lengths back of the winner. To envision him
even making the Kentucky Derby prior to the Blue Grass, or even predict he would win the race, was just a 'pipe dream'.
Irap not only won the Blue Grass, but he did it stalking early and then taking the lead on the far turn and carrying his speed on to
victory. The Keeneland dirt surface was very kind to speed, especially in 2 turn races, which played a part in Irap's success, as
well as the comfortable fractions that were set. In the Derby, Irap might get another speed favoring track, but in no way, will he
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get the same favorable pace set up. The added distance will also not be to his advantage. Look for Irap to regress off his Blue
Grass victory, which will likely result in an 'off the board' finish.
15th Selection # 2 THUNDER SNOW (IRE) 20-1 SOUMILLON C BIN SUROOR S
Invades US soil for the first time from Dubai for the world class Goldolphin Racing operation and is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor.
Thunder Snow brings a 3-race win streak to the Kentucky Derby following a nose victory in the U A E Derby at Meydon on March
25 in his last start. Suroor has trained for Godolphin Racing since 1995. He is winless with 7 Kentucky Derby starters. U A E
Derby winners are 0-12 in the first jewel of the Triple Crown. The closest finish was Master of Hounds who ran fifth in the 2011
Derby. History is clearly not on Thunder Snow's side.
Thunder Snow had enough speed to race on or near the lead in both the U A E 2000 Guineas and the U A E Derby. The pace in
the Kentucky Derby will be significantly faster than what he faced in Dubai in those 2 races. Add in a 20-horse field, a new racing
surface and the climate change, and Thunder Snow is clearly up against it. He does possess a very strong pedigree on both his
sire and dam side for class, speed and stamina but his inside post draw does not do him any favors.
16th Selection # 7 GIRVIN 15-1 SMITH M SHARP J
Has yet to race outside of Louisiana in 4 career starts at the Fair Grounds. Trainer Joe Sharp has done an excellent job developing
this $130,000 yearling purchase. Girvin has won 3 races in 4 starts since making his debut December 16. His lone defeat came
on turf in his second start. What is interesting to note is that the distance of his races has increased in each start as he continues
his upward progression, capped off by a victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.
Girvin is not a Derby win candidate for me. His versatility allows his rider to place him in good striking position early in the race
which is a plus. This has allowed him to parlay perfect trips in his last 2 starts into victories. In the Louisiana Derby Girvin switched
to his wrong lead when taking the lead in deep stretch and looked like a tired horse when crossing the wire. He gave me every
impression that his late kick won't be as effective stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. Girvin takes a step up in class as well racing
outside of the confines of the Fair Grounds for the first time. He has been galloping in bar shoes on both front hoofs and a work
that was called off on April 25. These are major negatives that should not be overlooked.
17th Selection # 6 STATE OF HONOR 30-1 LEZCANO J CASSE M
State of Honor will be one of the 'pace players' in the Kentucky Derby. He may not be on the lead early, but he will certainly be
in the first flight of horses on the chase into the clubhouse turn. He has only won 1 race, and that came sprinting at 7 furlongs
over Polytrack at Woodbine. State of Honor has hit the board in all 4 dirt starts, with 3 second place finishes. He clearly has
found a home on dirt going 2 turns, but facts are the facts, and that is he is winless on dirt. In all 6 starts he has raced around
2 turns, State of Honor has lost ground in the stretch. In the final 1/8th of a mile of each of those races, he's lost at minimum 1
1/2 lengths and as much as 3 3/4 lengths. That does not bode well for his chances in the Derby stretching out to 1 1/4 miles,
and for that reason State of Honor is a complete throw-out for me.
18th Selection # 4 UNTRAPPED 30-1 SANTANA, JR. R ASMUSSEN S
Untrapped broke his maiden sprinting last fall at Churchill Downs notching his first and only win in 6 career starts. He has raced
4 times this year, all around 2 turns and each time in stakes company. In none of those races did Untrapped look like he was
going to win in the last 1/8th of a mile, but instead flattened out when it counted.
His most disappointing performance came last time out in the Arkansas Derby. Untrapped ran sixth, which was the first time he
finished 'off the board'. His effort that day clearly exposed him as horse that simply does not 'class up' with any of the viable
contenders in the Kentucky Derby. Untrapped also proved he has serious distance limitations. If I owned him, Untrapped would
be pointing for easier spots at middle distances. A 1-turn mile hit's Untrapped right between the eyes, not 1 1/4 miles on Saturday.
19th Selection #20 PATCH 30-1 GAFFALIONE T PLETCHER T
Todd Pletcher will be represented by 3 horses in this year's Kentucky Derby, with Patch being the least experienced with only
3 career starts. Patch made his debut January 15 sprinting at Gulfstream finishing well from far back to just get up for second.
His pedigree indicated that he would improve going a distance of ground. That's exactly what happened 34 days later, stretching
out to a 1-turn mile. Patch showed improved speed, wearing down his pace rival late and edging clear to a hard-fought victory.
Pletcher wasted no time seeing what kind of 3-year old he had in his barn, so Patch was entered in the Louisiana Derby. Going 2-
turns for the first time, the son of Union Rags ran well in defeat to finish second behind leading Kentucky Derby point earner Girvin.
Patch is 1 of 2 horses owned and bred by Calumet Farms. The more fancied Hence is the other 3-year old. In my opinion, this
year's Louisiana Derby was the weakest of the final Kentucky Derby prep races. Patch could develop into one of the better 3-
year olds later down the road, but on Saturday he will have to settle for an 'off the board' finish.
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20th Selection # 3 FAST AND ACCURATE 50-1 HILL C MAKER M
Fast and Accurate has won 3 races in 6 starts, with all 3 victories run over Polytrack. Only once has he raced on dirt. The result
was a fifth-place finish at Parx which was so poor, that his connections only option was to return Fast and Accurate back on a
synthetic surface where he at least showed some 'life' in his first 2 starts. You might say that it was Lasix that he has raced on
in his last 3 outings that has been the catalyst to his steadily improving form. Even with the addition of medication and a hardfought
career best victory last time out in a slowly run Grade 3 Stake at Turfway, it's impossible for me to consider Fast and
Accurate even a viable contender to 'hit the board'. The 3-year old was not nominated for the Triple Crown, but nevertheless,
his owner Dr. Kendall Hansen and Olympian gold medalalist alpine ski racer Bode Miller, who recently purchased an interest
in the colt, are willing to put up the $200,000 supplement to get his horse to Churchill Downs for the Derby. I just hope the
connections get enough good tickets and a great meal to help supplement the waste of good money to watch their horse finish
at the back of the pack.
Wagering Strategy
* Win bet on (15) MCCRAKEN
* Exacta box (8) HENCE, (15) MCCRAKEN & (17) IRISH WAR CRY = $12 for a $2 wager
* Exactas 15 over 8-17, reverse both for 1/2 as much
* Smaller Exactas 15 over 1-5-10-11-12-13-14-16-18, reverse only 1-5-12-13-14 over 15 for 1/2 as much
* Trifectas 8-15-17 over 1-5-8-10-12-13-14-15-17 over 1-5-8-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17-18 = $120 for a $0.50 wagerComment
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ATS Derby Picks
5 Always Dreaming 5-1
14 Classic Empire 4-1
17 Irish War Cry 6-1
10 Gunnevera 15-1
6 State Of Honor 30-1
Extras:
8 Hence 15-1
9 Irap 20-1
12 Sonneteer 50-1
19 Practical Joke 20-1
Bet the top horse to win and place.
Use all others for your exotic bets (ie. Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta boxes)Comment
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ASI
Saturday 6th (released 5/5) simon
GERMANY - 2ND BUNDESLIGA
(OVER 2 -120) Wurzburger Kickers @ Fortuna Dusseldorf (7AM)
SPAIN - LA LIGA
(OVER 2.5 -115) Eibar @ Atletico Madrid (1015AM)
SPAIN - LA LIGA 2
(OVER 2.5 +105) Levante @ Rayo Vallecano (12PM)
MEXICO - PRIMERA DIVISION
(OVER 2.5 -145) Veracruz @ Club Tijuana (10PM)
USA - MLS
(OVER 2.5 -130) Chicago @ Los Angeles (1030PM)Comment
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JR O'Donnell derby
____________________________________
#5 ALWAYS DREAMING
#14 CLASSIC EMPIRE
#15 MACRACKEN #19 PRACTICAL JOKE
Biggest bet on #5Comment
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Insider Sports Report
5* Arizona (Corbin) +100 over Colorado (Anderson)
Range: +115 to -130
3* Boston (Porcello) -145 over Minnesota (Tepesch)
Range: -125 to -170
3* Golden St. -5 over Utah (NBA)
Range: -3.5 to -7.5Comment
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ASI
MLB
LUCAS- April Record (31-22-1 +8.31)
Washington Nationals -109 Philadelphia Phillies (7PM)
Chicago White Sox/Baltimore Orioles UNDER 9 +100 (7PM)
JEFF- April Record (28-20 +6.07)
Boston Red Sox -154 Minnesota Twins (2PM)
Arizona Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies UNDER 11.5 -105 (8PM)
NHL
JEFF - Playoff Record (10-8 +1.82)
No Selection Today
LUCAS - Playoff Record (7-10-1 -4.66)
New York Rangers -110 Ottawa Senators (3PM)
PATRICK- Playoff Record (9-9 -.90)
Golden State Warriors -5 Utah Jazz (830pm)Comment
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Paul Leiner
100* A's -135
100* Rays -115
100* Rockies -115
Irish War Cry- Win/Place/Show
Irish War Cry/McCracken/Classic Empire Exacta BoxComment
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Ultra Sports
Indians / Royals Over 8.5Comment
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Pennywise
Kansas City RoyalsComment
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Saratoga Phil
Saturday, May 6, 2017
CHURCHILL DOWNS KENTUCKY DERBY SATURDAY 5/6/2016
Race 1
7 Gulf View 8-1
6 No Fault 2-1
4 Wholehearted 8-1
2 Saved by the Swell 7-2
Race 2
2 Donwell 8-1
7 Salute With Honor 3-1
8 No Mo Dough 4-1
4 Awesome Saturday 4-1
Race 3
5 Rocket Time 5-1
8 Mo Town 3-1
7 Donegal Moon 4-1
1 Flashy Jewel 8-1
Race 4
1 Caviar Czar (Ire) 7-2
5 Souper Fly Over 3-1
7 Sevier 8-1
6 Perfect Partner 5-1
Race 5
5 Sir Dudley Digges 4-1
Turf waiting on scratches
Race 6
5 Finest City 8-5
2 Paulassilverlining 7-2
7 Carina Mia 2-1
6 Lightstream 5-1
Race 7
Turf waiting on scratches
Race 8
8 Wild Shot 4-1
10 You're to Blame 10-1
5 No Dozing 5-1
11 Sonic Mule 10-1
Race 9
Turf waiting on sctraches
Race 10
2 Masochistic 5-2
12 Denman's Call 8-1
1 Awesome Slew 4-1
5 Clearly Now 6-1
Race 11
Turf waiting on scrtaches
Race 12 Kentucky Derby
10 Gunnevera 15-1
17 Irish War Cry 6-1
14 Classic Empire 4-1
5 Always Dreaming 5-1
15 McCraken 5-1
Race 13
3 Star Empire (GB) 6-1
4 Hunka Burning Love 4-1
8 Rockin Rudy 2-1
1a Hard Scramble 5-1
Race 14
5 Bourbon Country 10-1
4 Souper Wish 2-1
2 Morocco 7-2
11 Wicked Macho 8-1
Will update after scratches.
Race 7
1 Linda 5-1
6 Roca Rojo (Ire) 3-1
7 Harmonize 6-1
3 Hill House High 10-1
Race 9
2 Big Score 6-1
10 Good Samaritan 5-1
4 Oscar Performance 7-2
9 Made You Look 6-1
Race 11
2 Divisidero 4-1
8 Beach Patrol 5-1
6 Bal a Bali (Brz) 6-1
4 Conquest Panthera 8-1Comment
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Vegas Situation Room Big Plays
15* Black Diamond NHL Eastern Conference Playoffs Game of the Year
NHL Washington Capitals -160 over Pittsburgh Penguins (released Thursday)
15* Black Diamond NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs Game of the Year
NBA Washington Wizards Money Line -180 over Boston Celtics (released Friday morning)Comment
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Trace Adams
Saturday's Selection ...
For Saturday, Raise The Bar 1500♦ is the Golden State Warriors as the road favorite at Utah. At 8:00 am eastern time, the Warriors are -5 1/2 points in Vegas and offshore.
How can you not back them?
True, Golden State failed to cover in BOTH games played on their home hardwood on Tuesday and Saturday, but the Warriors were simply never threatened by the Utah Jazz in either game, as the Dubs won by 12 and 11-points.
The Jazz will get a boost playing in their own arena, but is that going to be enough to keep them from losing for the third time in as many games? I don't think it is, and I don't think +5 or +6 points is going to be enough to keep the Jazzmen inside of the impost this Saturday night.
The Warriors have won 9 of the last 10 series meetings, and 8 of the 9 wins have come by 7-points or more. A similar result tonight means the Dubs are not only the straight up winner, but the ATS winner as well. I'm counting on that.
Utah simply doesn't have the horses to stay with Golden State for the full 48-minutes required. The Warriors got 30 points from their bench in Thursday's 11-point win, and it just so happens that anytime the Jazz made a little run at Golden State, it was answered and then some.
Go ahead and lay the road wood with the # 1 seeded Warriors.Comment
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Robert ferringo MLb
Robert Ferringo's Picks For Major League Baseball
1-Unit Play. Take #907 Miami (+120) over N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Saturday, May 6)
The Marlins blew a huge lead yesterday to take yet another loss. But I think they will rebound today. They've had the Mets number this year and I think that this Marlins team has been playing below its talent level. Neither team has a good pitcher on the mound. But I think that the Marlins have the better lineup and I think that Miami is due for a breakout at some point.
1-Unit Play. Take #913 L.A. Dodgers (-1.5, -150) over San Diego (8:40 p.m., Saturday, May 6)
Clayton Kershaw should dominate one of the worst teams in baseball. Sometimes a bet doesn't have to be any more complicated than that.
1-Unit Play. Take #922 Baltimore (-1.5, -110) over Chicago White Sox (7 p.m., Saturday, May 6)
Dylan Bundy has been outstanding early in the season. I expect that to continue. The White Sox are another team that I think has played better than they really are. They will come back down to earth. The Orioles are 9-3 at home this year and I expect them to jump all over Dylan Covey today. Covey is not ready for the Majors and he is sporting a 7.29 ERA on the season. He's walked more guys than he has struck out and really over the past few weeks his only decent start came against the Royals, who have a historically bad lineup right now. I think the Orioles bomb Covey and the Sox here.
1-Unit Play. Take #930 Chicago Cubs (-130) over N.Y. Yankees (7 p.m., Saturday, May 6)
The Cubs screwed me yesterday, giving up a three-run home run with two outs in the ninth inning to lose 3-2. However, I think the Cubs will rebound with a win today. The Yankees have been playing over their heads. They've had several comeback wins and really have caught a lot of breaks. I don't think that will be the case here today. The
Today's Totals
8-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 9.0 (+100) Miami at N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Saturday, May 6)
I see plenty of action and plenty of runs in this one. We have two Triple-A caliber pitchers on the mound in Odrisamer Despaigne for Miami and Robert Gsellman for the Mets. Despaigne is a spot starter for Wei-Yin Chen and earlier this spring he was down in Single-A. Despaigne has some decent numbers in Triple-A this year, but he has walked 13 guys to just nine strikeouts so his control is spotty at best. Despaigne has appeared in just 53 games for three teams over the last three years, including just three appearances last year, and he has a career ERA around 5.00. Gsellman hasn't been any better. He was a revelation last year for the Mets. But this year he has been keeping the ball up in the zone and he has a 6.75 ERA in his six appearances. Gsellman has allowed 22 runs in his last 21 innings over the past four starts and the 'over' has hit in five straight outings. Miami has a powerful offense that is No. 7 in batting but just No. 17 in runs scored. They have scored seven or more runs in three of their last six games. But after a disappointing effort against Tampa Bay this week - scoring two or fewer runs in three of the four games - I think the Marlins bats are due to break out. They scored seven runs last night and left a ton more on the field. The Marlins pitching staff is a little wrung out because their starters aren't going deep into games. And they have allowed an average of 5.5 runs per game over the last 10 games. The Mets have scored at least five runs in eight straight games and have averaged nearly seven runs per game in their last 10. The Mets bullpen is also shaky right now. And even if you throw out the 23 runs they allowed to the Nationals on April 30, they are still allowing an average of six runs per game in their last 10. So in this game we have two struggling pitchers, two beat-up bullpens, two powerful, hot offenses, and a host of trends pointing toward another high-scoring game. The wind is blowing out tonight also and the umpire behind the plate, Chad Whitson, has had a small strike zone this year. I think this sets up well for some runs and we'll play this one 'over'.
Carpe diem. Good luck.Comment
Comment