5-20-17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nover 2*
NBA: San Antonio

Sure it's a monster plus if Kawhi Leonard plays today. Not only is he the best two-way player in basketball, but the mental lift he would provide would be enormous.
I think Leonard will test his injured ankle and give it a try. The teams last played on Tuesday. So he's had three full days of recovery. Doctors found no structural damage to his ankle. If he plays, this spread is well worth getting involved.
However, I'm not counting on Leonard playing. Yet I still believe the Spurs are worth backing in a home underdog role down 0-2 in this Western Conference Finals and in must-win mode. The Spurs can't help but be super fired up especially after taking a verbal beating from their Hall of Fame coach, Gregg Popovich, after being embarrassed 136-100 in Game 2.
The Spurs are a prideful, veteran crew that showed it could win without Leonard when they buried the Rockets by 30 points on the road to close out their semifinal series.
Golden State has lost a staggering 25 of 27 times at AT&T Center. This includes a 2-3 mark under Steve Kerr. So the Spurs' home-court advantage can not be underestimated.
The Warriors also could be minus Andre Iguodala and starting center Zaza Pachulia. Their potential absence is being overlooked in all the hoopla surrounding Leonard's status. That would really hurt the Warriors' defense and leave their bench thin. Both are questionable due to injuries. Iguoda¯la had the best plus-minust average in the league of all reserves who played in at least 50 games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports:

3-Unit Play. Take #906 Pittsburgh (-125) over Philadelphia (4:05 p.m. Saturday, May 20)

Pittsburgh lost the first game of this series last night but I like them to bounce back tonight and pick up the win. Ivan Nova hasn't been great in his past three starts but they were all on the road and he has been a different pitcher when he pitches at home. Nova is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in 3 starts at home this year allowing just 4 earned runs over 19 innings pitched and I think he will limit the Phillies offense. Vince Velasquez will be on the mound for the Phillies and he is 2-3 with a 5.63 ERA on the season. The Pirates have won 8 out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams in Pittsburgh while the Phillies are 2-11 in their last 13 games versus a right handed starter. I like the Pirates here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports:


3-unit Play Take #911 Arizona Diamondbacks (-120) over San Diego Padres (10:10pm EST) We haven't faded the San Diego Padres in a while, and shame on us for that. The Pads are going to end up with the worst record in the sport when it's all said and done (in fact they have the worst record right now), and you can count on 100 losses. They are just 2-9 over their last 11 games, including four straight losses. Today they take on the Diamondbacks, who are off to a nice start to the season. Left-hander Robbie Ray gets the ball for the D-Backs. He's been less than stellar this season, but I like Ray's stuff and think he has the potential to be an All-Star pitcher. Ray is striking out 11.7 batters per nine innings, but he needs to limit the walks a bit more to be effective (5.2 per nine innings). He shouldn't have much problem with a weak San Diego lineup today. Play Arizona at the low price.

4-unit Play Take #918 Houston Astros (-120) over Cleveland Indians (4:10pm EST) We missed with the Houston Astros yesterday, but we're coming back with them again here. The Astros have the best record in baseball and they are going to be a very tough out at home this season. I feel like their lineup still has a ton of potential, and they are 2nd in the AL in runs scored already. The Indians haven't been playing great baseball in 2017 yet. They'll eventually come around, but the bats need to wake up and the starting pitching has been all over the place. Mike Clevinger isn't the answer even though he has good numbers in limited work. Take Houston today at home.

4-unit Play Take #920 Minnesota Twins (-110) over Kansas City Royals (2:10pm EST) We scored a nice comeback with the Minnesota Twins last night, and hopefully we have less of a sweat with them this afternoon. The Kansas City Royals are a shell of their former selves and on the road they've been a complete mess this season (5-13). The Twins are going to hang around for a while this season. I love their collection of young talent and they have enough veterans around to keep them in check. This is a steal of a price with the Twins at home today.

4-unit Play Take #921 Boston Red Sox (-115) over Oakland A's (4:05pm EST) Two struggling pitchers go at it on Saturday afternoon as the A's host the Red Sox. Both Sean Manaea and Drew Pomeranz have had a tough time this season, especially lately. Control has been a big problem for both hurlers, but I think the Red Sox have the lineup that can really take advantage more easily. Boston has a lot of patient hitters and there aren't any easy outs in that lineup. The same can't be said of Oakland's lineup, which ranks 13th in the AL in runs scored. Play the Red Sox at the short price today.

4-unit Play Take #929 Los Angeles Angels (+110) over New York Mets (7:15pm EST) The New York Mets are on a 1-7 run and can barely field a major league team. Injuries have devastated this club in a huge way and they're going to struggle until some bodies come back. I'm not sure how they're favored today against the Angels. Zack Wheeler has been mediocre at best and he's not going to get a ton of run support. Alex Meyer hasn't been good for the Angels, but he does have plus stuff and is better than his ERA indicates. And don't forget, the AL has dominated the NL this season. Value is on the Angels as the underdog in this matchup.