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MLB Daily Line Drive: Tuesday's picks, betting odds and analysis
There is a full 15 game schedule today, including the Rockies who are riding a mile high after their emotional win last night.
Double-Play Picks
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (-180, 8.5)
Maybe the Cubs will deploy five outfielders and two catchers to slow down the Reds’ Joey Votto when the two National League Central rivals continue their four-game set Tuesday night in Chicago.
Unfortunately for the Reds, Votto doesn’t pitch for Cincinnati, who fell 15-5 in the opener of their series with the Cubs. The Reds will look to bounce back in Game 2 when they send rookie Luis Castillo to the mound to take on the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks.
The right-handed Castillo, has been a lone bright spot for a Reds rotation that ranks dead last in the major leagues in starter ERA. Castillo has pitched to a 3.73 ERA and a 1.227 WHIP in 10 starts since joining the Reds’ rotation. If Castillo can’t go deep in this ball game, he hands the ball over to a bullpen that ranks 19th in the league in ERA.
Either way Castillo and the Reds will have their hands full with a Cubs’ lineup that is averaging 6.0 runs per game since the start of August. For the season, they rank ninth in runs per game, seventh in OPS and ninth in home runs.
Chicago counter with Hendricks who has had a solid, if unspectacular, year for Chicago, going 4-4 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.246 WHIP. Hendricks faces a Reds offense (led by Votto) which has plated 6.8 runs per game in their last nine games, resulting in the Over going 9-0 in those games. Like we said earlier, unfortunately, they have also allowed 7.4 runs per game in that stretch.
Want a few more tidbits? The Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Chicago with an average of 14.2 total runs scored per game in those games and the Over is 6-0 in Hendricks' last 6 starts vs. Reds.
Pick: Over 8.5
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies (-140, 11.5)
After last night's very emotional win by the Rockies in the return of Chad Bettis, they look to parlay that into another win tonight with their top starting pitcher of 2017 on the hill.
Lefty Kyle Freeland will be activated off the disabled list for tonight's start against the visiting Atlanta Braves. Freeland was removed from his start on August 4 after only 11 pitches with a groin injury, which means he hasn't had any stress on his arm since the previous start on July 30. He should be as fresh as a daisy tonight.
Hitting the DL with a non-arm injury was actually a good thing for Freeland as the Rockies were mixing in bullpen duties in an effort to limit his innings - two weeks off should take care of any innings concerns.
The Rockies have won Freeland's last four starts and in those outings he has a very tidy 2.34 ERA and a WHIP of 1.146. He has also been better pitching at Coors Field this season with an ERA of only 3.19 (4.22 on the road) and an opponent's on base percentage of only .313 at home.
After last night's loss, the Braves have now lost their last 11 games in Denver and eight of their last nine road games overall. They will send Sean Newcomb to the mound Tuesday night and they have lost the rookie left-hander's last seven starts and nine of his 11 career outings.
Newcomb has never started at Coors Field in his brief career, and that can prove to be a daunting task for a first-timer.
Pick: Rockies -140
Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 114-104-13
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (8-7, 3.97 ERA, $-319)
2017 hasn't been the greatest season for Justin Verlander, but over his last three starts the veteran right-hander has been at the top of his game.
He is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.86, a WHIP of 0.86, and an opponent's on base percentage of only .232. He also has 22 strikeout over 21 innings of work in those last three stellar outings.
Verlander and the Tigers are -125 favorites this evening in Arlington against A.J. Griffin and the Rangers.
Slumping: Dan Straily, Miami Marlins (7-8, 3.74 ERA, $-267)
It's an unusually tough day to find a scheduled starting pitcher who has truly sucked in recent weeks. There are a bunch of mediocre starters, but no one who has been dumpster-fire terrible.
Dan Straily wins the prize simply based on the fact that the Marlins have lost his last six starts - and in the end team wins and losses are the most important stat for bettors. Straily has only allowed two earned runs in each of his last three outings, however a bad bullpen and lack of offensive support have been troublesome.
Straily and the Marlins are slight home dogs at -105 against MadBum and the Giants.
Tuesday's Top Trends
* The Boston Red Sox are 8-0 in Rick Porcello's last eight interleague starts. -135 today vs Cardinals.
* The Detroit Tigers are 4-12 in their last 16 meetings with the Texas Rangers. -125 today @ Rangers.
* Over is 14-2 in the last 16 meetings in San Diego between the Phillies and Padres. PHI/SD Total: 8.
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 48-9 in their last 57 overall. -350 today vs White Sox.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a chance of late afternoon thunderstorms in The Bronx where the Yankees will entertain the Mets. The storms may stick around into the evening but should clear out for game time.
There is also a chance of thunderstorms in Denver late tonight where the Rockies are taking on the Braves. This system should only impact the game if it goes long...which can sometimes happen at Coors Field.
There will be a 10-12 mile per hour hitter's wind blowing out to left field at Fenway Park in Boston where the Cardinals will be in town to take on the Red Sox. The total is set at 10.
And finally, in Arlington, Texas there will be a 10-12 mile per hour pitcher's wind blowing straight in from center field for tonight's game between the Tigers and Rangers. The total is set at 10.
Ump Of The Day
Chris Guccione will be calling balls and strikes in Phoenix for this afternoon's game between the Astros and Diamondbacks.
There is a very interesting trend involving Guccione where the Astros are 5-0 in their last five games with him behind the plate and the Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last five games with Guccione wearing the pads.
We'll see if this trend continues today. The Astros are slight road favorites at -115.
Kyle Freeland comes off the DL to make Tuesday's start against the Braves, and I like him to hold down Atlanta. Colorado has won his last four starts. Atlanta, meanwhile, has lost the last seven starts by rookie Sean Newcomb. This price is a bit low. Lay it. 96-71-0 IN LAST 167 MLB ML PICKS | +1400
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