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Tuesday 8-22-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
The Rockies are on the road again as they visit the Kansas City Royals for the opener of a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium Tuesday night. They're coming off a disappointing 3-4 homestand, and we can note that the Rockies are just 6-21 in their last 27 road games overall and 3-14 in their last 17 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
They will indeed face a southpaw tonight as the Royals hand the ball to Danny Duffy (7-8, 3.82 ERA). The 28 year old has been solid at home all season, posting a 3.14 ERA through eight starts, and we can note that the Royals are 35-16 in Duffy's last 51 home starts.
The Rockies turn to Jon Gray (5-2, 4.74 ERA). The 25 year old right-hander has a 4-11 mark with a 4.93 ERA in 26 career starts on the road, and he's 1-2 with a 6.34 ERA in seven road starts on the season.
Two motivated teams still fighting to make it to the postseason, but I think the home team has a clear edge in this contest. We've cashed three straight free picks and I'm counting on the Royals to make it four in a row.
My free pick selection is Kansas City Royals ML.
I'm recommending a play on the Phillies with Aaron Nola over Dan Straily (game-1 of the doubleheader). Since June 21, the Phils are just 23-30. However, during the same stretch they're 7-4 when Nola toes the starting rubber, which shows just how effective he's been. Nola held 10 straight opponents to 2 runs or less before a rough outing in SFO last time out. I'm more of the belief it was an anomaly and not a sell sign. The fact is, he was cruising along for the most part, before a bad 5th inning. The righthander is back home tonight where the Phils have won each of his last three home starts and five of his last six. Nola has allowed just 5 earned runs, 33 base runners, with 52 strikeouts in those six starts, spanning 42 1/3 IP. That's a smoking-hot, 1.06 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 11.06 K's per 9 IP ratio. Dan Straily has watched his team lose each of his last seven starts and he's receiving little help from his offense. It's hard to imagine he'll get the likely required help tonight. Straily isn't eating up innings, failing to pitch six full in all but one of his last seven starts. The righthander's numbers on the road have not been good since the start of the 2014 campaign and not much has changed this season where his ERA sits north of 4.6. With a potential pitching mismatch on hand, we'll recommend a play on Aaron Nola and the Phillies on Tuesday (game-1). Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
STEPHEN NOVER
MLB | Aug 22, 2017
Twins vs. White Sox
UNDER 10½ -110
Kyle Gibson is not a pitcher you'll find me going Under the total with too often. But this is one of those rare exceptions. The White Sox are 23rd in runs, minus their second-leading home run hitter, Matt Davidson, and the weather forecast is for wind to be blowing in at 14 mph. Chicago is in full youth movement. The White Sox are one of the few teams Gibson has a strong history against. Gibson is 5-2 with a 2.37 ERA in nine career starts versus the White Sox. Minnesota is going to be facing the White Sox's prize pitching prospect, Lucas Giolito. This will be Giolito's big league season debut. Giolito received some major league experience last season when he made four starts for the Nationals. The Twins rank 18th in homers. This was with Miguel Sano, their home run and RBI leader. Sano is out with a shin injury. It looks like the White Sox have found a dependable closer as Juan Minaya is three-for-three in save opportunities. Home plate umpire Ben May has had more Unders than Overs during the last three years.
The White Sox snapped the Twins winning streak last night by beating them 7-6. I think the Twins will have a hard time bouncing back here especially with Gibson on the mound who doesn't deserve to be favored. He is 6-10 with a 6.05 ERA on the year. He also owns a 5.33 ERA on the road in 9 starts. His recent form isn't any better with a 5.79 ERA his last 3 starts.
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