Thursday 8-24-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MVP Lock Club

MLB CLEVELAND +150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pinnacle Sports Picks

MLB CARDINALS ‑1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tys Terrific Tips

NFL PANTHERS ‑1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Line Mover Sports

MLB PIRATES +130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jacobson Sports

NFL MIAMI +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

David Hess

MLB LA DODGERS ‑145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Anthony

Dolphins vs. Eagles
Play: Eagles -3.5

The passing offense of Philadelphia - has been able to move the ball when it wanted to - as Philly had shown in their win vs Buffalo. When it begins to get really physical at the point of attack, and their control game, Philadelphia can, and will push back. With a ready to go Carson Wentz, a strong Oline, and an improved WR corps to back him up - the Eagles will come out victorious in this one. Philadelphia was able to get tons of pressure vs Buffalo at home - expect much the same here vs Miami. So, one player for Miami has the hopes and dreams of their season riding on him? Not a good thing for Dolphins hopeful. Jay Cutler is going to struggle vs an improving secondary that may not be top notch - but are experienced with one another. The passing game of the Phins has looked horrific - and Miami is still just trying to find their way and wont want to risk an injury to Cutler. Advantage, Philly in the game - by 7+. Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

MONTREAL +101 over Winnipeg

With four wins in a row and a 6-2 overall record, the Blue Bombers are on fire and so it would seem reasonable to back them as a very small favorite in Montreal. That may be so but we’re going to stick with our philosophies here of buying low/selling high and putting more emphasis on situations rather than X’s and O’s. The CFL season hasn’t even really started yet, as nine teams will play 18 games to eliminate three teams from the playoffs. It is therefore unreasonable to expect any CFL team to maintain high intensity for the entire year and this appears to be the week that the Bombers are likely to relax a bit. Winnipeg’s four successive wins started with a 41-40 victory over these same Alouettes back in Winnipeg On July 27. You may remember that the Bombers scored 13 points in the final 58 seconds to pull out a miracle victory. The very next week, the Bombers pulled another rabbit out of their hat with a 33-30 victory over Ottawa. Last week, the Bombers played a highly anticipated home game against the then undefeated Eskimos and in front of a frenzied crowd in Winnipeg, the Bombers went wire to wire in a 33-26 victory. That was one of Winnipeg’s biggest regular season wins in a very long time and they’re still writing and talking about it in that region. The Bombers are in a massive letdown spot here in a game that means very little to them in the grand scheme of things.

The last time this market saw the Alouettes was this past Saturday in Toronto and it did not leave a good impression. Montreal was out of that game early in the second quarter when the Argonauts took a 28-0 lead five minutes into the second quarter and led 35-0 at the half. The Argos would cruise the rest of the way en route to an easy 38-6 victory. Montreal was an embarrassed football team and while we cannot guarantee a victory here, we can guarantee that there will be an intensity response. Perhaps Montreal was looking ahead to this week’s revenge game, as they had the Bombers by the throat a month ago and gave it away. Perhaps they simply were not ready but that goes back to it being unreasonable to expect teams’ to be sharp all 18 games. What we know for sure is that this situation heavily favors the Als in their own barn. We also know that Montreal outgained Winnipeg by over 100 yards on the ground back in Winnipeg four weeks ago and ended up outgaining the Bombers by 93 yards overall. Prior to that debacle last week in Toronto, Montreal had outgained four straight opponents, including the Stampeders in which Montreal defeated Calgary, 30-23. Let’s not forget that Montreal is 3-1 at home with victories over Calgary, Toronto and Saskatchewan and just a seven-point loss to B.C. In that loss to the Lions, the game was tied with three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. So, while it appears like the Bombers are being sold short here, it is the Alouettes that are being sold short based on last week’s horrible performance. We’ll play it accordingly.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Miami -1½ +127 over PHILADELPHIA

Vance Worley has struck out 37 batters in 56 innings. That’s not very good. His ERA/xERA split of 4.82/4.53 isn’t very good either. However, his batted ball profile of 60% grounders, 20% line-drives and 20% fly-balls is not only strong but it bodes well at this small ballpark. Vance Worley’s performance today likely won’t be a dominating one but we’re not buying Worley. This wager is all about fading Philadelphia’s Jake Thompson, who is set to make his third start of the year.

Thompson’s first start of 2017 occurred On July 28 against Atlanta in which he went five full and allowed five hits and two runs. That earned him another start, five days later on August 2 against the Angels. In that second start, Thompson again went five innings, only this time he was tagged for nine hits and seven runs before getting yanked. He was subsequently sent back down to Lehigh Valley, where he started two games and was whacked in the second one, as he allowed six runs in six innings. Now 22 days after his last MLB start, Thompson will make another go of it here. Last year, he went 3-6 with a 5.70 ERA in 54 innings for the Phillies. He took a step back, as his strikeout rate slipped during first taste of AAA and it slipped even further in the majors. He had a league-worst first-pitch strike rate that led to higher than expected control and he was awful versus lefties and not exactly dominant v righties either. In 15 innings at this level this year, Thompson’s balls hit hard % is 40%, which would be the second worst mark in baseball if he qualified. In 111 innings at Lehigh Valley, Thompson struck out just 84 batters while issuing 46 walks. Thompson is just 23 years old so there is still time for him to develop but right now he’s not even close. This is also a bad matchup for Thompson against a hard hitting team with both speed and power.

N.Y. Yankees +106 over DETROIT

In a day game after a night game, the Tigers almost always rest some of their vets and since they are out of it, chances are great they’ll rest one, two or more here. The Yanks are in a pennant race so Joe Girardi will treat this as another very important game. It’ll be Jamie Garcia versus Michael Fulmer here but the pitching matchup here is not our focus. Our focus here is the smoking hot Yanks’ playing the ice-cold Tigers. Also note that the Tigers rancid bullpen is beyond taxed while the Yankees outstanding ‘pen is foaming at the mouth for some work.

The Yankees have won seven of their past nine games and have scored 23 runs in the first two games of this series while the Tigers have scored six times. Detroit has one victory over its last nine games with the opposition scoring 68 times over those nine games. That’s about 7½ runs against per game. When one bets the Tigers, the last thing you want to hear is that there is “activity in the bullpen” because each pitcher is worse than the last. We’re not going to over-analyze this one. The Yanks are heating up when it counts most while the Tigers season is over and they’re playing like it. In an evenly priced game, we’ll take out chances with a New York team that is seeing beach balls at the plate and that have thrived at this park.

L.A. ANGELS -1½ +155 over Texas

Troy Scribner will make just his third start of the year but the Halos have won his previous two starts by scored of 8-6 and 5-1 over Oakland and Baltimore respectively. Scribner has mostly been a starter in his minor league career. He has proven to be very durable and could serve in a variety of roles. The tall and lean righty was originally signed as a non-drafted free agent in 2013 by Houston and was later sold to the Angels in March 2016. He’s made strides with his command in 2017 but has been victimized by the long ball. Scribner pitches aggressively and quickly and uses a variety of pitches to keep hitters off-guard. He establishes the plate with his 86-91 mph fastball and will mix in a cutter, curveball, slider, and change-up. None of his pitches would be deemed as above average or plus, but he sequences well and hits his spots. Scribner also hides the ball in his delivery which makes his offerings difficult to pick up out of his hand. Aside from all that, we’re not asking him for a miracle here, as this wager is all about fading the opposing starter.

We targeted Martin Perez in his last start in Chicago against the South Side and he was tagged for five runs in the first inning but the Rangers bailed him out by scoring 12 runs over the next four innings. Perez is now 137 innings into the year and has crashed back to earth after a hit%/strand%-fueled mirage kept his head above water for a brief stretch. Other signs are ominous too, as he doesn't miss enough bats to reverse his K-rate slide. Perez has 19 K’s over his past 36 innings and his poor xERA has held steady all year. What Martin Perez is capable of is throwing lots and lots of bad innings. His 1.57 WHIP is weak and his year-to-date xERA of 6.50 is also weak. Current Angels have a combined 139 AB’s against Perez and he has struck out a mere 16 of those while issuing 19 walks. Current Angels also have a .293 combined BA against Perez and he’s never been worse than he is right now. The Perez fade continues.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Vinciletti

Winnipeg at Montreal
Play: Winnipeg -1

The Bluebombers took down Montreal earlier this year 41-40 coming back from a double digit deficit. They average nearly 40 points per game on the road and are 3-0 vs losing teams, 4-0 vs non division teams and have covered 10 of 11 on the road if the total is 52 or more. Montreal is 0-4 with revenge and 1-7 ats as a home dog of 3 or less. Play on Winnipeg to get the win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carmine Bianco

Viitorul Constanta at FC Red Bull Salzburg
Play: FC Red Bull Salzburg -1.5 -120

The disparity in quality between these two prior to Leg 1 was discussed here and Red Bull used a big first half to put this tie away the visitors come in now needing nothing short of a big win (3 goals or a 2 goal win 4-2 or higher) to advance into tomorrow's draw. Unlikely that happens today as Salzburg will field the same 11 and have been clinical at home this season and their past two league games have been 5-1 blowouts. We'll side with RBS here to put this one away early on Thursday.