Friday 8-25-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MARC LAWRENCE

Play - Detroit Tigers w/Verlander (Game 973).

Edges - Tigers: Verlander 2.39 ERA with 0.88 WHIP last seven overall starts; and 8-1 last nine overall team starts in this series, including 5-0 the last five; and 6-1 last seven overall team starts during August… White Sox: Gonzalez 3-9 last twelve overall team starts during August; and 4-10 team start at night this season… With Verlander in commanding KW form with 33 Ks and 4 BBs his last four starts, we recommend a 1* play on Detroit. Thank you and good luck as always.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Ellis Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:42pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 86

Rating:3

#8 UTMOST INTENSITY (ML=8/1)
#1 KEY TO THE BANK (ML=5/1)
#9 SANDHILL SAMMY (ML=10/1)


UTMOST INTENSITY - This horse is in good condition, having run a strong race on August 13th, finishing second. Based on this horse's recent efforts, he should be aided by today's shorter trip. Widely used handicapping angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. A live one today. KEY TO THE BANK - This rider/conditioner duo has been producing a very lucrative ROI, right at +133. SANDHILL SAMMY - Greenwell brings him right back. I recommend you stay with this live gelding. That 85 fig this gelding garnered in his last race tells me he's a big time player in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PROVIDENCE (ML=6/5), #1A NORTHERN RANGER (ML=5/1), #4 RIPPIN RIDE (ML=6/1),

PROVIDENCE - Last ran on Jul 29th at Ellis Park, finishing fifth. Not likely to perk up off of that try in today's race. NORTHERN RANGER - Not likely that the speed figure he recorded on July 9th will be enough in this event. RIPPIN RIDE - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance contests recently. Improbable to see him doing it this time either.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #8 UTMOST INTENSITY on top if we're getting at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,8,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,8,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Emerald Downs - Race #7 - Post: 9:27pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,400 Class Rating: 62

Rating: 3

#1 SEATTLE SEA GAL (ML=2/1)
#3 APRILS NOT FOOLIN (ML=3/1)
#2 ROSIE'S WAY (ML=4/1)


SEATTLE SEA GAL - Trainer Stenslie moves this thoroughbred to a lower class rank to face a lower level today. Look for a nice performance in here. My expertise says this is the lone stalker in the race. Have to make this filly a contender; she comes off a good outing on Aug 11th. Ranks number one in earnings per start (EPS). A solid performance right here can augment the lifetime total. APRILS NOT FOOLIN - Faced tougher in the last race at Emerald Downs. Based on class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this horse on my list of strong contenders. This filly is in fine condition. Finished third on Aug 11th. ROSIE'S WAY - This entrant could be tough this time, especially since Ordunarojas rode last out and now should be acquainted with this one. Apostolou brings her back again. I advise you stick with this strong filly. Look at this pattern of improvement. 24/33/58 are the last 3 Equibase speed figs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 QUEETS (ML=9/2),

QUEETS - This filly finished outside the top 3 on July 29th and wasn't even close last time around the track either. Registered a most unsatisfactory speed figure in the last race in a $5,000 Maiden Claiming race on Aug 12th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #1 SEATTLE SEA GAL to win if you can get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Valuline at Evangeline Downs

Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Evangeline Downs, Race 6 (Friday August 25, 2017)

ROSE'S ASSET
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)

EVD-6 6f DIRT Seven Horses
"A" CLM 5,000 F/M 3YUP $8,500
P# dd ex p3 p4 t s ML WP TVL

3 ROSE'S ASSET 9/5 45% 6/5 Strong Favorite icon
4 PRAY LASSIE 5/1 22% 7/2

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 64

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 FONDA CARLOS 8/5

# 6 MY GAL SARAH 5/1

# 3 CHERRY LAUREL 4/1

I like FONDA CARLOS here. Her 57 average has this filly with among the best Equibase Speed Figures for this event. Recorded a reliable Equibase Speed Figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest. Has a strong shot in this race if you like back class. MY GAL SARAH - With Contreras in the saddle guiding her, this filly will probably be able to break out early in this competition. Ought to be considered - I like the figs from the last race. CHERRY LAUREL - Must be given consideration given the class of races run recently. Has performed solidly lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 51 avg speed figure.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 7

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)


Optional Claiming $25,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $32,500 • Post: 4:53P
(PLUS UP TO 40% INDIANA STATE BRED SUPPLEMENT) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR INDIANA BRED OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Trailer. TREASURY BILL is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TREASURY BILL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. EPIC JOURNEY: Horse has run a Good Race with in the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. NAVAL GAZER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
9
TREASURY BILL
2/1

4/1
1
EPIC JOURNEY
5/2

6/1
5
NAVAL GAZER
15/1

6/1

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

Penn National - Race 3

W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / $0.20 Penn Pick 6 (Races 3-8)


Claiming $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $20,900 • Post: 6:54P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 25 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $22,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. WILMA LYNN is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WILMA LYNN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BRANDYWINES SECRET: Horse's aver age winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. S W BRIAR ROSE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ran ks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4
WILMA LYNN
5/2

3/1
1
BRANDYWINES SECRET
12/1

7/1
2
FOREST DEW
7/2

9/1
6
S W BRIAR ROSE
8/1

10/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Saratoga

RACE #3 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 2:02 PM EASTERN POST
The Fleet Indian Stakes
9.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#2 SUNSET RIDGE
#5 BONITA BIANCA
#1 FIVE EACH WAY
#3 DANIELLE'S PRIDE

The races honors the career of Fleet Indian, a daughter of Indian Charlie, and a winner of 13 of her 19 career starts while banking $1.7 million dollars in earnings. Some of her major wins came in the Beldame Stakes, and the Personal Ensign Stakes. She was named American Champion Older Female Horse Award in 2006. Here in the 3rd running of "The Indian," #3 SUNSET RIDGE qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS ""PowerPony," and is undefeated in a three race career, including a BLISTERING, 17 length "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start. Jockey Jose Ortiz was in her irons for those 3 wins, and is back this afternoon here at "The Spa" for his 4th ride, gunning for a Grand Slam Win!"

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Timonium

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 76

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $14,000 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 SOCIALLY DRIVEN 5/1

# 10 BALHARBOUR MISS 6/1

# 9 NEXT STREET 10/1

SOCIALLY DRIVEN is the most respectable bet in this race. Has been running well lately and ought to be on the front end early on. Should keep the impressive string of finishing positions intact this time out. Posted a reliable Equibase Speed Fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. BALHARBOUR MISS - The extreme drop in competition can only help out this one this time around. Simoff has a formidable 24 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. NEXT STREET - With one of the most competitive jock in terms of dividends at the window, don't count this filly out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: Take OAKLAND (Graveman) -110 over Texas-

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The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Friday: Take PITTSBURGH (Nova) +105 over Cincinnati

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Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Friday: Take BOSTON (Porcello) -145 over Baltimore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

FRI Pittsburgh w/Nova +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRAD WILTON

Friday night comp play will be the Indians over the Royals from Progressive Field.

Hey, you split a 4-game set with the sizzling Boston Red Sox, including bombing the likely Cy Young Award winner - Chris Sale last night, and I think you should be able to handle a pitcher who has taken a turn for the worst as we head down to the end of the season.

KC starter Jason Vargas is on a 1-3 slide his last 4 starts, allowing 16 runs to score in his last 20-plus innings of work. Included is a start that lasted under 5 frames his last time out against Cleveland, as the Tribe plated 4 runs on 6 hits.

Cleveland took 2 of 3 off of Kansas City in that series, and they have now won 10 of their last 14 games overall, and 15 of 21 at home.

Ryan Merritt is up from Triple A - Columbus to make just his third start of the season. He enters with no record, but he did earn his only major league win last season against Kansas City when he pitched 5 innings of 1 run ball.

The Royals have lost 9 of their last 11 games played at Cleveland, and I see them losing tonight.

4* CLEVELAND

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE LUNDIN

Indians-125

The Cleveland Indians have 14 of the last 20 in the series and nine of the last 11 meetings with the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field. This looks like a more than reasonable price on the Tribe in the opener of a three-game series Friday night.
Ryan Merritt (0-0, 3.12 ERA) takes the ball for Cleveland. The 25 year old southpaw will make his fourth appearance for the Indians this season and third spot start. We can note that the Royals are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter and Merritt is backed up by the best bullpen in the American League (3.05 ERA) if things were to go awry.
The Royals turn to a left-hander of their own in Jason Vargas (14-7, 3.59 ERA). He was tagged with four runs on six hits and three walks in 4 2/3 innings against Cleveland on August 19 his last time out. I don't think he'll be able to slow down the Tribe this time around either as they scored 13 runs on 18 hits in yesterday's win against Boston. The Indians are 5-2 in their last seveb home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Note that the Royals are 29-32 on the road this season and the Indians are 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.