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Gaming Today September 12-18
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Pointwise
Winning Points
Sports Reporter
Nelly's Green Sheet
Gold Sheet
Gold Sheet Extra
Red Sheet
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - Thursday College Football only
Joe Gavazzi’s Pointspread Prognosis
Powers' Picks
Cal Sports: Stat Comparison – College Football thru Week #2
The Gridiron Guide – College Football Week #2 Stat, Log & Match-Up Guide
Last edited by Can'tPickAWinner; 10-06-2017, 11:54 AM.Comment
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Joe Gavazzi POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS
Issue #3 2017
FAUX OR FO’REAL
Faux or Fo’Real is the title of one of our Pointspread Prognosis games each week. But there are events happening in the
CFB world that make us question the reality of the situation. What I am about to share with you is a group of pointspread records that are so diverse from the norm that one can only question whether they are Faux or Fo’Real! With over 50 years of pointspread history pointing to the fact that these numbers are a 50-50 proposition, it is very clear they will return to the norm. This makes the statistic I am about to present certainly of the faux variety. The question is, when do they become fo’real? Here is my best guess. These absurd numbers are occurring in the non-conference portion of the season. It will not surprise me that they continue this way for the next week or two until Conference play begins. Then again… the whole pattern may begin to reverse this week. Until then, I can only assume that this faux beginning is fo’real! Check out these mind-boggling numbers.
49-80 ATS Record for home favorites including 28-48 ATS as -14+
31-13 ATS Road teams as favorite to +3 (superior teams)
With good reasons, I will continue to follow this pattern this week in the hopes that it continues.
LEARN A NEW LANGUAGE
Our world has become a far more global place both economically, politically and culturally. One of the ways we see this evolving is in the amount of multi-lingual people in the world. As a result, it is important to learn a new language if you are to keep pace with modern society. In an effort to do my part, I am asking you to use a new language and a new concept for the next month in the world of our CFB sports handicapping.
The term is; AFP (away from the pointspread)
This phrase and its accompanying acronym (AFP) are used to represent the difference in a team’s performance between the betting line and the pointspread outcome. For example; let’s say a 10 point favorite wins a game by 30 points. For that game, they would have a +20 AFP. This number can be used in referring to a specific game, a group of games (such as home or away), for the year to date, or in conjunction with another team’s AFP to provide a net differential number. The concept is used as a contrary handicapping tool with the notion that a team’s skewed performance will return to the norm – the linemaker’s original power rating for a team at the beginning of a season. The concept works best between the weeks of 3 and 7 of the regular season when one team has a negative AFP of -20 or more and their opponent has a positive AFP of +20 or more with the net difference totaling 50 or more. With your new vocabulary entrenched in your memory bank, let’s move forward to Week #3 of the CFB season.
KEEP ON TRACKIN’
34-14 ATS Any team who double rushed their opponent (75% ATS L16Y)
16-6 ATS Any team who ran AND passed for 200+ yards if opponent did not (“200 Club”)
7-1 ATS Any team who is +3 or more turnovers in the game
28-48 ATS Home favorites of 14 or more points
31-13 ATS Road favorites to +3 (better team)
PREFERRED ELECTIONS ARE UNDERLINED
Friday, September 15th
Crusher of the Week
Illinois at South Florida (-17-) 7:00 PM ET ESPN
Never easy to lay double digits with a team who has allowed 38 PPG in their last 6 contests while knowing that home favorites of 14 or more points are 28-48 ATS this season. In the 2nd year under HC Smith, the Illini have settled on Crouch at QB. So what! This is an impotent offensive team that averaged only 20/315 LY and who, in this season, has scored just 24 points vs. Ball State with 216 yards and last week scored just 20 points vs. Western Kentucky gaining only 300 yards. Even against the still suspect South Florida defense, they should do little better. And although the Illini defense is the strength of their team, no one has stopped these Bulls behind QB Flowers. This team has averaged 44 PPG in their last 17 starts. Although the defense remains a continuing sieve, they have had an extra week to prepare and continue to shine in this role where they are 6-1 ATS the previous 3 years as home chalk. Lay it in what can only be termed our CFB Crusher of the Week!
Saturday, September 16th
Puppy of the Week
Kentucky at South Carolina (-6) 7:30 PM ET
Here is your first chance to use your new language. South Carolina is 2-0 SU, ATS to begin the season. In winning both games outright as underdog, they have covered the spread by 32 points. In those games, however, they were outgained by NC State, 504-246, and last week, outgained by Missouri, 423-359. Turnovers and big special teams plays have been a major part of that. Now they return to Columbia for their home opener feeling better than they should about themselves. Today’s opponent, Kentucky, is at the other end of the spectrum. Though they have begun the season a likewise 2-0 SU, they are 0-2 ATS losing to the number by a combined 25 points. Last week, they defeated Eastern Kentucky 27-16 with a “200 Club” performance. The Wildcats have defeated the Gamecocks each of the last 3 seasons by 7, 4 and 7 points. This year, they return 17 starters and are one of the Top 20 most experienced teams in the land. And today we get them as 6 point puppy? Grab the points and do not be surprised by the outright victory as we begin to reap the benefits of being multi-lingual.
Rivalry Game of the Week
Notre Dame (-13-) at Boston College 3:30 PM ET ESPN
Each of these teams is 1-1 SU for the season. Each comes off a loss as a home favorite last week. But only one of these teams, Notre Dame, continues to suffer from overwhelming public support despite their recent failures. Dating to late 2015, this is a Fighting Irish team that is 5-11 SU. A Game #1 victory over a barefoot Temple team means nothing. Last week, they stepped up in class and got smacked down. Georgia outrushed the Irish 185-55 in a narrow 20-19 Georgia victory. Today, the Irish are asked to go on the road to cover a double digit impost knowing that a far more critical road game at Michigan State lies ahead next week. Classic PLAY AGAINST road favorite sandwich spot! This may not be much of a rivalry to Notre Dame. BUT IT IS A HUGE RIVALRY GAME for Boston College even more important than their game next week against defending National Champion, Clemson. Last week, Boston College lost 34-10 to Wake Forest. That was a game that was virtually even in the stat column but resulted in the rout because the Eagles were -4 in the net TO column. BC has had one of the best defenses in the Nation the last two years. Combined with the fact they are 6-1 ATS in this series (I told you it was more important to them), it will be no surprise that BC comes comfortably inside this inflated impost.
Penthouse Pick
UCLA (-3) at Memphis Noon ET ABC
This selection does not come without reservations. The Bruins will be traveling cross country for a 9:00 AM ET body time start. In addition, they are looking forward to the start of the PAC 12 season next week featuring a date with Stanford. The Bruins Game #1 victory over Texas A&M, when they stormed back for a 45-44 win after trailing 44-10 late in the third, is the type of victory that can make a season. UCLA followed up the victory by trouncing Hawaii last week, 56-23. Again, QB Rosen led the offensive onslaught. He now has 9 TDP in a pair of outings. Today he gets to feast on a retooled Memphis secondary that offers a great matchup for the passing game of the Bruins. Memphis has its own quality trigger man in QB Ferguson but this team has yet to get on track for the season with their 1st game against ULM being played in a driving rain storm and their 2nd game against UCF being cancelled last week due to Irma. If the Bruins can wake up and prevent the look ahead to Stanford, this fundamental mismatch will clearly play to their favor. Get down early on this revised Noon ET start so you can begin your day in the Penthouse!
Lone Ranger Game of the Week
Baylor at Duke (-14) 12:30 PM ET
Here is an opportunity for your 2nd language to provide incredible value and take you directly to the Winners Circle! As mentioned on these pages, it is going to be a pure bounce back season for Duke. After a combined record of 27-13 SU the previous 3 years, Duke slipped to 4-8 SU in 2016. The bounce back was predicted. The Game #1 romp of NC Central, 60-7, was no surprise. But the thorough trouncing of a highly regarded Northwestern team, predicted on these pages, was by greater proportions than most realize. The Blue Devils “200 Clubbed” Northwestern with a yardage margin of 538-191. After 2 games, Duke is 2-0 SU, ATS covering the number by 45 points. Many were expecting a fast fix for the Baylor Bears by highly respected 1st year HC Matt Rhule. He worked his magic at Temple. This year, despite inheriting a mess in Waco, he was expected to perform similar magic. To date, such has not been the case. Losing 48-45 to Liberty on their home field while allowing 585 yards, was the first indication. Last week, they lost 17-10 to UTSA being outgained by over 100 yards. That makes the Bears 0-2 SU, ATS with a -59 AFP. With a net AFP diff of -104, it is one of the largest Week #3 net diffs I have seen. The theory has done its magic, for Baylor is now a 14 point underdog IN A GAME WHERE THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN FAVORED before the season began. Knowing that home favorites of 14 or more points are 28-48 ATS adds confidence to the selection.
Perception/Reality Game of the Week
Central Michigan at Syracuse (-10) 3:30 PM ET
Last week on these pages, I predicted Mid Tenn State to win outright at this very price point against Syracuse. This week, the perception of the linemaker remains the same as he has again installed the Orange as a double digit favorite. The reality is that neither this team nor their defense deserves this level of favoritism. Maybe the misperception came from Week #1 when the Orangemen trounced C. Conn State, 50-7 with a yardage edge of 586-167. The reality of that victory is that C. Conn State is nothing more than a glorified high school football team with only 45 scholarship players. Last week, the Orange hosted MTSU and were upset 30-23 as double digit favorite when they were sacked 6 times and gained only 308 total yards. The ground game continues to struggle averaging just 3.1 YPR. Because of their affiliation with the MAC, C. Mich continues to get no respect. Remember that this is a team who won at Okla State in Week #2 last year, 30-27, (questionable outcome). Under 3rd year HC Bonamego, the Chips remain a team on the rise. Keyed by one of the Top 20 most veteran OLs in the country, they are off to a 2-0 SU start. Last weekend, they defeated Kansas 45-27 rolling up 590 yards. Don’t think that can’t happen against this Syracuse defense. Behind that solid OL, QB Morris has a 6/1 ratio and RB Ward is averaging 206/6.9. In a potential high scoring shoot out in the Carrier Dome, do not be surprised if Syracuse gets upset as a double digit favorite on consecutive weekends.
If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It
Purdue at Missouri (-7-) 4:00 PM ET SEC TV
Every rule has its exception. As I have often mentioned, it is the handicapper’s conundrum to follow momentum or to play the contrarian in games such as this where Missouri has a -65 net AFP differential providing the Tigers with an extra 6 points of value in this Game #3 matchup with the visiting Boilers. Last week, Missouri deserved far better than the 31-13 home loss to South Carolina. But a -3 net TO margin more than offset the 423-359 yardage edge indicating Missouri is due for a bounce back today. Backing the Tigers, however, comes with its negatives. First of all, this game is sandwiched between SEC affairs with South Carolina and Auburn next week. Second of all, the Tigers must deal with the fact that DC Cross was fired after the Tigers gave up 74 points in their first two home games. That plays right into the hands of the reborn Purdue offense under 1st year HC Brohm. In Week #1, the Boilers nearly upset highly respected Louisville before losing 35-28. Last week, they easily handled a respected Ohio team, 44-21, “200 Clubbing” them for at least 263 yards both running and passing. It is that type of offense that has made Brohm such a highly respected mentor in the world of CFB. Brohm enters today with his Western Kentucky and Purdue teams on a 15-5 ATS run. Combined with the fact that the Boilermakers bring the confidence of a solid road history that has the program 14-3 ATS away of late gives credence to this momentum play in the face of the contrary AFP indicator. I say to HC Brohm “If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It!
Big Dog of the Week
Tulane at Oklahoma (-34) 6:00 PM ET
Back to handicapping 101 for what could well, in retrospect, be the biggest letdown game of the CFB season. In a matchup of Top 5 teams last week, not only did the Sooners get their home revenge AT Ohio State but they put an exclamation point on the 31-16 win with a flag plant at mid-field by Sooners QB Baker Mayfield. If that does not spell “LETDOWN” when facing a little respected Tulane team, I don’t know what does. But this is a Tulane team under 2nd year HC Willie Fritz who has shown continual improvement. Last week against Navy, the king of option football, Tulane went toe to toe at the point of attack with the Middies being outrushed 194-191 in a narrow 23-21 comeback win for Navy. Now he takes his triple option to Norman where the Sooners have rarely seen this kind of attack especially in recent seasons in the pass heavy BIG 12 Conference. Look for Tulane to control the clock, shorten the game, take Mayfield and company out of their rhythm, and easily come in under the 5 TD impost. With last week’s ATS win, Fritz is now on a 24-15 ATS run.
Steamroller of the Week
Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky (-7) 7:00 PM ET
In the Purdue analysis above, I mentioned the importance of current Boilers HC Brohm in immediately turning around the Purdue Program. To further note his coaching abilities, consider his success at Western Kentucky in the previous 3 years where his teams went a combined 31-10 SU averaging 45 PPG. Now consider the start of current Toppers HC Sanford whose Western team has started 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS. And this has been against Eastern Kentucky and Illinois. In the Game #1 victory vs. EKY, 31-17, Western held only a 364-345 yardage edge. Last week, Western lost 20-7 at bottom of the barrel Illinois being outrushed 193-6. So what is going to happen when the high-powered offense of Louisiana Tech comes to town behind veteran 5th year HC Holtz who is 8-3 ATS as road dog at Rustin. Last week in obeying my command, Tech got trounced when stepping up in class against powerful Miss State from the SEC. They were outrushed 327-152 in a 57-21 loss. Today, however, they step way down in class to face a Western team who defeated them in the CUSA Playoff game last year, 58-44. Tech was +12 in that game and is still +7 in this contest. That does not nearly account for the difference in the coaching change at Western. In a contest where Tech would have been favored at the beginning of the year, we jump in with major value in a rare opportunity for a revenging underdog to win outright.
I.C.E Game of the Week
Army at Ohio State (-30) 4:30 PM ET
Each week in this missive, I isolate an ICE game in which our team plays with (I)ntensity, (C)onviction and (E)xecution. Though Ohio State will certainly be looking to do that following their home field debacle last week, it is Army who plays with that ICE mentality each week. Enough of this “Urban Meyer – Ohio State Legend”! Consider their most recent 3 games. A 31-0 shutout at the hands of Clemson in a Playoff game last year, an opening day win at Indiana when they were tied with the Hoosiers at the half, and last week’s 31-16 loss to avenging Oklahoma. Now they must host an emerging triple option team who, under 4th year HC Monken, is playing their best ball in a number of years. They trounced Fordham in the opener 64-6, then roared back for a 21-17 win against underrated Buffalo as they rushed for 322 yards making the 2 game average 417 RYPG. THAT WILL RUN A LOT OF CLOCK AND SHORTEN THE GAME CONSIDERABLY making this 30 point impost a mountain. Remember that Meyer has only faced the option 3 prior times. The last time was 3 years ago when Navy gashed the OSU front 7 for 370/5.9. Want no part of the Buckeyes bounce back at a price point where home favorites are 28-48 ATS as -14+ in CFB this season.
Under the Radar Game of the Week
Tulsa at Toledo (-10) 7:00 PM ET
With over 50 games each week in the CFB season, the casual handicapper seldom takes time to glance at non-conference matchups such as this one between the MAC-West and the AAC-West. Yet these are a pair of quality programs who will each have winning records at the end of the season. The Toledo offense is led by QB Woodside who has boosted the Rockets to wins of 47-13 vs. Elon (553-175 yards), then 37-24 at improving Nevada last week in which they rolled up 426 yards. Long knocking on the door in the rugged MAC-West, this figures to be the year they ascend to the Title game. Tulsa had an outstanding year under then 2nd year HC Montgomery going 10-3 SU, 8-4 ATS while averaging 42/527 on offense. To Montgomery’s credit, he has ably filled in the gaps with QB President and RB Brewer leading the charge. After an opening week loss at Ok State, they dominated LA LaFayette last week, 66-42 with 667 yards in one of the more entertaining, high-scoring games of the week. Look for Tulsa to offer enough fire power to come in comfortably under this double digit impost.
Hidden Gem of the Week
Oregon (-14) at Wyoming 7:00 PM ET CBC TV
The linemaker has quickly adjusted for the presumed Oregon improvement under 1st year HC Taggart. Last year, the Ducks dipped to 4-8 SU, 2-8 ATS in the final season under HC Helfrich. At the close of last year, Wyoming would actually have been the favorite in this game. But since the Ducks scorched S. Utah for 703 yards and followed it up with 566 yards in their 42-35 “save” last week vs. Nebraska, this line has zoomed more than 2 touchdowns for their trip to Wyoming. Beach boys at altitude are always a negative. Clearly there is a difference between Eugene, Oregon and Laramie, Wyoming which sits at 7100’ of altitude on the Front Range. The Wyoming offense struggled in their opener at Iowa against the staunch Hawkeye defense though the Cowboys were outgained by only 30 yards in the 23-3 loss. Last week, they bounced back with a 27-0 home field victory against G. Webb in which the Cowboys purported NFL ready QB Allen passed for 328 yards. With Oregon looking dead ahead to their 9 game PAC 12 schedule and having just survived Nebraska in their home revenge game, this has sandwich spot written all over it.
Faux or Fo’Real
Kansas State (-3-) at Vanderbilt 7:30 PM ET ESPNU
Vandy is off to a 2-0 SU start. Are they Faux or Fo’Real? The clear answer is Faux, as we will soon find out in the next month when they must face Kansas State, Alabama, Florida and Georgia. Starting with a pair of victories over MTSU and Alabama A&M, even by combined scores of 70-6, means little in the overall schemata when stepping up in class against the Big Boys. That becomes a reality today when they must face a Bill Snyder coached team in the BIG 12. Let’s see how Vandy QB Shurmer fairs against a Top rated Wildcat secondary. Under 26th year HC Snyder, there are few coaches who have had more pointspread success year in and year out. The Wildcats began the year by devouring C. Ark and Charlotte at home. With a bye next week, prior to the start of the BIG 12 season, expect full focus today against an SEC team whom they will respect. This may well be one of Snyder’s best teams. This year, Snyder adds a more competent offense to his usual bag of tricks for his special teams and defense. At a slightly reduced price due to Vandy’s hot start, it puts this in a price range where they can comfortably get the cover against a Commodore team whom they expose as Faux.
Cheap Thrills Game of the Week
Troy (-6-) at New Mexico State 8:00 PM ET
Sun Belt opener for each! The Aggies, in their last year of FBS play, are looking to make a statement that their program should not have been downgraded. Already this season, in two road games, they stormed back at Arizona State in the 100 degree 4th quarter heat to turn a 37-13 deficit into a 37-31 final in which they outgained the Sun Devils 549-400. Last week, leading rival New Mexico, 30-5 at the end of the 3rd, the Aggies held on for a 30-28 win again amassing 500 yards. They are allowing just 3.3 YPR while QB Rogers is lighting it up for 400 PYPG. As a result, despite the fact that Troy won this contest, 52-6 last year and 52-7 the year before, there will not be any letdown. Troy brings the league’s best QB in Silvers to the fray who is completing 67% of his passes. After a tough loss at Boise in Week #1, Trojans got a confidence-building win with 605 yards in a 34-7 win against Alabama State. Despite a pair of fine outings, the Trojans still have a -44 AFP diff entering this contest because of the Aggies hot start. That has resulted in an adjustment of 10 full points from where this line would have been opening week. Must step in with the value as Troy fans get their cheap thrills in watching their Trojans dominate a team they have destroyed by a combined count of 104-13 in the previous seasons.Comment
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Gaming Today September 12-18
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Pointwise
Winning Points
Sports Reporter
Nelly's Green Sheet
Gold Sheet
Gold Sheet Extra
Red Sheet
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College Football
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NFL
Joe Gavazzi’s Pointspread Prognosis
Powers' Picks
Victor King's Totals Tipsheet
Killer Sports NFL Report
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Confidential Kick-Off
2017 Playbook Wise Guys Contest
Cal Sports: Stat Comparison – College Football thru Week #2
The Gridiron Guide – College Football Week #2 Stat, Log & Match-Up Guide
Last edited by Can'tPickAWinner; 10-06-2017, 11:52 AM.Comment
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Mendoza (a poster in another forum) Line cumulative year to date record:
Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.
Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.
CKO
11* (0-3) (this was 3-10 last season)
10* (4-7)
Totals (4-2)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA (college plays tracked here went 7-0 this week)
5* (1-2)
4* (3-0)
3* (1-2)
Upset pick (1-1-1)
Betcha Didn't Know (2-2) (this was 4-13 last season)
Awesome Angle (3-2)
Incredible Stat (2-1)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL (these were 14-34-3 overall last season)
5* (1-1)
4* (1-1)
3* (0-2)
Pointwise NCAA
1* (3-2)
2* (3-0)
3* (1-2)
4* (1-5)
5* (4-2)
Pointwise NFL
3* (1-1)
4* (1-3)
5* (2-2)
PowerSweep NCAA
4* (0-2) (4* play was canceled this week)
3* (4-2)
2* (4-2)
Underdog Play of the Week (0-3)
Tech Play of the Week (0-2)
Revenge Play of the Week (1-2)
Situational Play of the Week (0-3)
Series Play of the Week (1-0)
PowerSweep NFL
4* (1-1)
3* (1-1)
2* (0-2)
NFL System play (1-1)
4* Pro Angle (0-1)
Powers Picks NCAA (went 1-7 overall in college and pro plays this week)
3* (1-4)
2* (2-5-1)
1* (1-1)
Powers Picks NFL
3* (0-2)
2* (1-3)
1* (0-0)
Sports Reporter
NCAA Best Bets (4-6)
NFL Best Bets (2-2)
Red Sheet
89* (1-3)
88* (4-4)
Winning Points
NCAA 4* (1-2)
NCAA 3* (2-0-1)
NFL 4* (1-1)
NFL 3* (0-2)
Killer Sports, not including teasers (0-4 overall this week)
MTI 5* (0-0)
MTI 4.5* (0-1)
MTI 4* (2-1)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (0-0)
SBB 4* (1-3)
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (2-0) (these were 13-5 last season)
2* (2-1-1)
PowerPlays
NCAA 4.5* (3-4-1)
NFL 4* (0-2)
Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (9-2)
NFL Key Releases (1-5)
Last Year's Newsletter RecordsComment
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Gaming Today September 19-25
Gold Sheet
Winning Points
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Victor King's Totals Tipsheet
Sports Reporter
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Powers' Picks
Cal Sports: Stat Comparison – College Football thru Week #3
The Gridiron Guide – College Football Week #3 Stat, Log & Match-Up Guide
Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's September 20 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Phil Steele's September 20 Podcast with Michael Reghi - Strong as Steele
Last edited by Can'tPickAWinner; 10-06-2017, 11:52 AM.Comment
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Joe Gavazzi’sCFB POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS
The 50 Point AFP SolutionIssue #4 2017By Joe Gavazzi
Join the hundreds who will win millions this year with these elite plays!
Joe Gavazzi
Tuesday, September 19, 2017
Last week in this space, we talked about learning a new language, the language of the AFP (Away From the Pointspread). With it, comes a whole new way of thinking about handicapping. Rather than playing selections based purely on momentum, with the attendant loss in line value, the AFP indicator SEEKS OUT VALUE to let you know, IN A VERY CONTRARY WAY, when to play the LETDOWN, or the BOUNCEBACK.
To review the concept of the AFP, I will repeat the example we used last week. Let’s say a 10 point favorite wins a game by 30 points, FOR THAT GAME, they would have a +20 AFP. This number can be used in referring to a specific game, a group of games such as home or away, for the YTD, or in conjunction with another team’s AFP to provide A NET DIFFERENTIAL NUMBER. It is that Net Differential Number that is of greatest concern to us in this article. Please allow me to put it in terms of stating the concept.
The 50 point Contrary AFP Concept: Between Games #4 and #7 (for each team) of the CFB Season, we look to play ON a team who has an AFP of -20 or worse and AGAINST an opponent with an AFP of +20 or better if the sum of those numbers is 50 or more. Finally, it is imperative that our PLAY ON team has a LOSING pointspread record and that our PLAY AGAINST team has a WINNING pointspread record.
The optimal situation for this is if either our PLAY ON team LOST SU and ATS in their game last week, or if our PLAY AGAINST team WON SU and ATS in their game last week. It is even better if both situations occur. Because the linemaker adjusts approximately 1 point in a team’s power rating for every 7 to 10 points of AFP differential, we are in most cases getting at least a touchdown of line value from where this line would have been in Week #1 which is the linemaker’s highly respected original opinion of all teams.
Let’s look at examples for the games of Saturday, September 23rd
TeamSUATSAFPFoeSUATSAFPNet AFPDiffLine Valuefrom Wk #1App State2-10-3-26Wake Forest3-03-0+49-757Boston College1-20-3-51Clemson3-03-0+39-907Nebraska1-21-2-20Rutgers1-22-1+32-5210UTEP0-30-3-49New Mex State1-23-0+30-7915Baylor0-31-2-58Oklahoma3-03-0+35-9314Arizona St1-20-2-1-32Oregon3-02-1+31-6315
These (6) teams above are the qualifiers for this weekend’s games. They are rarely easy to bet, but what do you care as long as you are putting money in your pocket.
52-21 ATS Any team who double rushed their opponent (75% ATS L16Y)KEEP ON TRACKIN’
29-8 ATS Any team who ran AND passed for 200+ yards if opponent did not (“200 Club”)
12-1 ATS Any team who is +3 or more turnovers in the game
PREFERRED SELECTIONS ARE UNDERLINED
Saturday, September 23rd
Perception/Reality Game of the Week
Wake Forest (-5-) at Appalachian State 3:30 PM ET
Here’s the perception… Wake Forest is a team who continues to turn it around for 4th year HC Clawson, a coach whose Deacons went 6-18 SU his first two seasons. Last year with 17 RS, Wake went 7-6 SU, 8-4 ATS including a Bowl win vs. Temple as double digit dog. This year, they are out of the gate at 3-0 SU, ATS covering the number by 49 points. On the other side of the field, is an App State team widely predicted to win the Sun Belt. They are 0-3 ATS, -26 AFP, thus considered to be an underachiever. HERE’S THE REALITY. Wake has defeated 3 barefoot teams in Presby, BC and Utah State. Feeling good about themselves, they have a dead look ahead to ACC powers Florida State and Clemson in the next two weeks. App State just completed a conference opening game victory against lowly Texas State, 20-13. There was little focus for a last place team whom they defeated 35-10 LY. THIS CHANCE TO FACE AN ACC TEAM WHO IS LESS THAN 100 MILES AWAY FROM THEM IN A GAME OF FAR GREATER IMPORTANCE THAN ANY SEPTEMBER CONTEST. With the benefit of a -75 AFP yielding more than a touchdown of line value (see lead article above), we comfortably line up with App State as our Perception/Reality Game of the Week. Technicians will flock to the current Wake run of 9-2 ATS and 8-1 ATS away mark, while they shy away from an App State team who is 1-9 ATS in Boone of late. Outright home underdog win no surprise to this bureau in the Perception/Reality Game of the Week.
If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It
Michigan (-10) at Purdue 4:00 PM ET FOX
We won with Purdue as this very “Named Game” last week but shied away from using it as a Game Day selection based on decreasing line value. WRONG! The Boilers cruised 35-3 (as +7) and even put the brakes on in the 2nd half preparing for this contest. Now that Purdue is 3-0 ATS and has covered by 63 points, we face the same dilemma as they face a powerful Michigan team. Before we shy away again, note that in Week #1 against an explosive Louisville team, the Boilers took the Cards to the limit in a 7 point loss. Today, however, they must face the #5 defense in the Nation who has reloaded despite just 5 returning starters. In addition, because of Purdue’s hot start, we will be taking more than a TD LESS of value than opening week. Still, HC Brohm continues to work his magic, with his teams on runs of 25-11 and 16-5 ATS. QB Blough has completed 76% of his passes while RB Fuller is rushing for over 6 YPR. This week’s issue is a front door cover by a Michigan defense with a late game Pick 6, while the Boilers are chasing from behind. Nonetheless, as I wrote once again in my memo to HC Brohm this week, “If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It”. Purdue outright?
Faux or Fo’Real
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (-7-) 12:20 PM ET
The Faux or Fo’Real query is normally reserved for whether a hot team will continue its momentum or has a letdown. This week, we switch gears and ask whether a 1-2 SU Pitt team, who is 0-3 ATS -34 points, is Faux or Fo’Real. When Pitt HC Narduzzi came to the Burg as a highly touted DC from Michigan State, he was expected to improve the stop troops. That ain’t happened! Last year, the Panthers allowed 35/453 including 333 PYPG, among the worst in the Nation. Opening week saw a 2nd half look-ahead to Penn State and a narrow escape against Y. State. Trouncings followed by Top 10 teams, Penn State and Ok State by a combined count of 92-35. Now they must switch gears rather quickly to face the well-rested option attack of HC Johnson and Georgia Tech who had a buffer following their 1 point loss to Tennessee opening day followed by an unscheduled week of rest. They will be ready to roll with their #1 rushing offense and a 6-0 ATS recent mark. Aside from their defensive issues, the Panthers may well be starting rookie QB Ben Dinucci who will be making his first start on the road after highly touted USC transfer QB Browne flamed out in the 1st three contests. Aided by a 37-34 revenge margin from last year and with the additional week of prep time, a double digit victory margin will be inevitable against a Panther team who proves to be FAUX!
Underdog Game of the Week
Penn State (-12-) at Iowa 7:30 PM ET ABC
Top 5 Penn State continues to roll behind QB McSorley and RB Barkley. They are averaging 48 PPG, are on a 12-1 ATS run, and are 11-1 ATS on the road of late. Note, however, this year’s offensive explosion includes 108 combined points at home against Akron and Georgia State. When facing the only decent opponent to date, the stats were relatively even in their game against the rival Panthers. Tonight, they must take to the road for a prime-time game in the role of double digit favorite. It is a setting perfectly conceived for veteran HC Ferentz in a sold out Kinnick Stadium. Considering the 41-14 revenge motive from last year, and Penn State’s lofty status, there is little doubt that the Hawkeyes play this one with Super Bowl intensity. Ferentz coached teams have covered 10 consecutive times as underdog in this price range against Class A opponents. Though Iowa RB Butler is expected to miss up to a month, starting RB Wadley (leg) has been upgraded to probable for this contest. Iowa QB Stanley, with a 10/1 ratio, has shown great promise as the first year signal caller. This game goes to the wire with the outright upset no surprise to this bureau.
Steamroller Game of the Week
West Virginia (-21-) at Kansas 12:00 PM ET ESPNU
Pure momentum play in a game where the line has moved little since the opening week number! Following a bitter opening week loss to rival Virginia Tech, the Mountaineers have responded by scoring 115 combined points in games against outmanned foes, E. Car. and Del. State. They are now averaging 583 YPG. Can this pathetic Jayhawk edition, again scheduled for the Big 12 basement, be much above those opponents? After all, the Jayhawks just lost by 18 and 12 points to MAC foes, C. Mich and Ohio, allowing 87 points in the process. QB Greir, with an 11/2 ratio, along with RB Crawford, lead another overland assault as they Steamroll the downtrodden Jayhawks by 4+ TDs.
Crusher Game of the Week
Georgia Southern at Indiana (-24) 3:30 PM ET BIG 10 TV
Things have gone totally upside down for this Georgia Southern program. It was just 2 seasons ago, in 2015, that this proud Eagles program, under the tutelage of HC Willie Fritz, was recording its 3rd consecutive Nation leading season of 360 or more RYPG. When Fritz took the job at Tulane at the start of 2016, he was replaced by Tyson Summers. In complete antithesis of the “If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It” motto, Summers felt he had a better way. Few CFB coaches have ever been more wrong. Entering today, the Eagles are 5-9 SU, 3-9 ATS under Summers. With just 10 RS and lacking identity, the Eagles crashed and burned in their previous contest losing 22-12 as 7 point favorite to New Hampshire. When facing a real team in Week #1, they lost 41-7 to Auburn. There is little hope for success in the Sun Belt, and even less hope in this contest today. The Hoosiers, under 1st year HC Allen, have been steeled by contests against Ohio State (whom they played on even terms for ½ the game), then by a rout of Virginia where they controlled the proceedings throughout. With a week of rest, this outmanned foe provides an excellent tune up for next week’s Big 10 meeting against powerful Penn State. No worries, however, about a 4th quarter letdown. QB Lagow and QB Ramsey are fighting for the starting signal caller position, meaning there will be full focus for the entire game regardless of who is at the controls in the 4th quarter. With this 4 TD rout, we extend the record for the Crusher of the Week to 4-0 ATS on these pages!
I.C.E. Game of the Week
Cincinnati at Navy (-11-) 3:30 PM ET CBSC
Each week on these pages, I focus on an I. C. E. game in which our team plays with (I)ntensity, (C)onviction and (E)xecution. Though that acronym always refers to the Middies, they are in an excellent situation this week. They have an extra week to prepare while Cincinnati is playing a 3rd consecutive game on the road in 3 weeks. The first of those was a physical pounding at Michigan. Last week, it was a highly emotional rivalry win when they stormed back from being down double digits in the 4th scoring on a pick 6 with a minute to play for the 21-17 win against arch rival Miami, OH. No surprise if the Bearcats, who are on a 6-13 ATS slide, come with less than full intensity at Annapolis this afternoon. 1st year HC Fickell prepped for Navy during his time as Ohio State assistant. That may not be of much use today. The Middies remain underrated. On recent runs of 35-20 and 17-9 ATS, they have covered 7/11 recent games as home chalk. As always, 10th year HC Niumatalolo has a well prepared signal caller in QB Abbey, who is averaging 5.6 YPR. With a 4 quarter mentality, look for Navy to I.C.E. this game early on as they cruise to an easy 3 TD victory.
Puppy of the Week
Notre Dame (-4) at Michigan State 8:00 PM ET FOX
These marquee matchup Saturday night home dogs have been like money in the bank in recent seasons. This is most probably another outright winner. Following their 20-19 home loss to Georgia two weeks ago, the Irish bounce backed smartly with a 49-20 trouncing of BC. It was a game in which they totaled 611 yards including 515 overland. It was indeed reminiscent of their opening rout of Temple, 49-16, in which they gained 606 yards and 422 overland. In between, however, was that loss to Georgia in which they were outgained 326-265 and outrushed 185-55. Are you beginning to see a pattern? Now, they must face another Power 5 team who, much like Notre Dame, is looking for redemption from a disappointing season of last. Though untested, Sparty has recorded confidence-building wins against MAC entities B.G. and Western Mich. With an extra week to prepare, they look to duplicate the 36-28 win over the Irish last season. QB Lewerke has been outstanding with a 4/1 ratio while averaging 8.8 YPR overland. Little doubt this has been Sparty’s role, as under 11th year HC Dantonio, they are 17-5 ATS as dog including 4-0 ATS as home pup. Add another as the Irish fail to step up in class.
Cheap Thrills
Auburn (-19) at Missouri 7:30 PM ET ESU
The drums are starting to beat both on the Plains as well as in the Heartland for coaches of a pair of Tigers who have each begun the year 0-3 ATS. Despite a pair of victories against outmanned foes Georgia Southern and Mercer, it was the Game #2 loss at Clemson, 14-6, in which Auburn gained only 117 total yards that disturbed the Auburn faithful. Last week’s purported bounce back against Mercer, though a 24-10 victory with a 510-246 yardage edge, was marred by a -5 net TO margin. Clearly, however, there is far more upside to the Auburn season with transfer QB Stidham showing great potential. There is little good to be said about today’s host. In Game #1, Missouri allowed 43 points to Missouri State. After a 31-13 game #2 loss to South Carolina, Missouri head coach, Odom, fired DC Cross. That was merely meant to divert attention from himself as he is the one actually in charge of the defense. A defensive decline continued last week when Purdue “200 Clubbed” Missouri, 35-3 with a 477-203 yardage edge. That was with a merciful 2nd half by Boilers HC Brohm. Expect no such mercy today from Auburn HC Malzahn whose team needs to put it all together for a confidence-building win prior to a brutal 8 game SEC slate. There will be plenty of Cheap Thrills for the Auburn faithful as the visiting Tigers run up the score in a comfortable 4 TD win.
Penthouse Pick
TCU at Oklahoma State (-11) 3:30 PM ET ESPN
3-0 SU, ATS Oklahoma State is rampaging through September with wins of 35 vs. Tulsa, 34 vs. USA and 38 vs. Pitt while averaging 54 PPG. QB Rudolph, with an 11/1 ratio and 378 PYPG, is throwing to a plethora of quality receivers. Last year, they trounced TCU, 31-6, with a 541-343 yardage advantage. Our big edge here is the mental advantage owned by TCU. This is a Top 10 pass defense who has held each of their FBS opponents to their season low in yards. Last week, after spotting SMU an early lead, the Frogs rallied for a 56-36 win. Throw in 31-6 revenge from last year and the motivation of bouncing back from a rare losing season last year, 6-7 SU, 3-9 ATS, and you’ve got a double digit dog with bite! 17th year HC Patterson has been a solid road dog at 11-3 ATS on the run while QB Hill has played up to expectations.
Under the Radar Game of the Week
Ball State at Western Kentucky (-7-) 7:00 PM ET
No team may have dropped farther in the power ratings, year over year, than this Western Kentucky team who has broken from the gate 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS with a -53 AFP. Yet today’s line is still in the range where it would have been opening week despite the fact Ball State is 2-1 SU, ATS. Look no further than the change at the top and only 10 returning starters for the Tops. It’s a long way between the guidance of departed HC Brohm to former Tops assistant Mike Sanford who spent the previous 2 seasons on the staff of Notre Dame. Yet he would not be the first CFB coach to have failed in his quest to step up as the head man. Despite the return of senior QB White, Western has dropped from their 45 PPG average of the 3 previous seasons under Brohm to only 15 PPG. That is against the likes of E. Ky., Illinois, and LA Tech. Ball State has long been an outstanding road team and enters today’s contest with a recent 6-0 ATS road dog log including a cover at Illinois in Game #1 when they outgained the Illini, 375-216. QB Neill is averaging 68% C while the 3 headed RB monster of Gilbert, Huntly and Dunner are averaging 5.4 YPR. Wrong team favored in this Under the Radar special!
Hidden Gem
USC (-17) at California 3:30 PM ET ABC
Love this situation! USC continues to play to the level of competition. In Week #1 as 28 point favorite, they allowed Western Michigan to hang around well into the 2nd half. When challenged in Week #2, they smacked Stanford from the opening gun, 42-24 as (-5). Last week as 17 point home chalk, they were life and death vs. Texas needing to tie it in the closing minutes before winning 27-24 in OT. With a bigger game next week against Washington State, they will again play down to the level of Cal even though this could be considered a potential rivalry game. That only assumes that recent games in the series have been competitive. But USC is 10-2 ATS in this series of late. Trojan QB Darnold has now won 12 straight starts and is completing 75% of his passes. But there have been 6 INTs as well. Real change in this matchup has taken place at Cal where highly respected DC Wilcox has taken nicely to the role of head man in making a meaningful difference in Berkeley. Major improvement has come on the defensive side of the ball where the Bears, after allowing 43/518 LY have given up only 22 PPG in 3 outings this year. That includes come-back wins vs. Power 5 opponent North Carolina in Week #1, and last week against Ole Miss. where Cal won outright 27-16 after trailing by 9 at the half. This Hidden Gem is far closer than “they” have priced.
Lone Ranger Game of the Week
Oregon (-16) at Arizona State 10:00 PM ET
You and I and the Lone Ranger are the only ones who will be backing the Sun Devil’s bottom rated pass defense against an Oregon offense that gained 703 vs. S. Utah, 566 vs. Nebraska, and 558 yards last week vs. Wyoming despite calling off the dogs after intermission. They are now averaging 56 PPG behind quickly maturing QB Herbert and RB Freeman. The change is evident with 1st year HC Taggart replacing Helfrich at the helm. Taggart’s own great road chalk record fits like a glove with the Ducks 15-5 ATS mark as road chalk. What chance do the Sun Devils have with a defense that’s allowed 45 PPG in the last 7 outings, stands 1-8 ATS in the series including losing last year’s game, 54-45. Under Taggart, however, the Ducks MO has switched to a 64% run heavy offense in which he continues to feed the ball to RB Freeman. Assuming that MO remains, that clearly aides the home underdog. The Sun Devils have much to prove following a disappointing 5-7 SU season of last (no Bowl) and a pair of narrow losses recently to TTRR and SD State. With RB Ballage and RB Richard, the Sun Devils can play a bit of ball control and keep this far closer than the number.
Rivalry Game of the Week
UCLA at Stanford (-7-) 10:30 PM ET ESPN
The 45-44 UCLA opening night win against A&M will go down as one of the legendary comebacks in CFB. It may even be the victory which qualifies the Bruins for Bowl eligibility. Behind QB Rosen, with his 13/2 ratio and 428 PYPG, the UCLA offensive onslaught continued with a 56-23 trouncing of Hawaii and 45 points at Memphis in a 3 point loss. Today, however, they face a team who not only plays the type of fundamental ball control football that is ill-suited to the UCLA style, but also a hungry team who is off consecutive losses to USC and SD State. With their preferred method of controlling the game on the ground and with their defense, Stanford has an 8-1 ATS series advantage over the visiting Bruins. QB Chryst is emerging as a game manager while RB Love, in replacing McCaffery, has run for 160+ yards each game. Now playing in their home opener and off back-to-back defeats, look for Stanford to have their way against an injury-plagued defense of the Bruins. Note that the Cardinal is 11-3 ATS/loss of late.
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cant pick a winner, thanks for posting all the newletters, know it is a lot of trouble. during your searches if you run across marc lawrence mid week alert would you please post it any week you see it. it is a very good capping tool as the stats are best of all the newletters.
again thanks for all you doComment
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Gaming Today September 19-25
Gold Sheet
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Victor King's Totals Tipsheet
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Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Powers' Picks
2017 Playbook Wise Guys Contest
Killer Sports NFL Report
VSIN
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NCAA (all games)
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NFL (Thursday game only)
Cal Sports: Stat Comparison – College Football thru Week #3
The Gridiron Guide – College Football Week #3 Stat, Log & Match-Up Guide
This Year's Newsletter Records So Far
Last Year's Newsletter Records
Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's September 20 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Phil Steele's September 20 Podcast with Michael Reghi - Strong as SteeleComment
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