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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mendoza Line Newsletter Tracking Through September 29, 2019:

Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.

Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.

There are no plays pending for Monday Night Football.

CKO
11* (3-1)
10* (8-12)
o/u (2-5)

Gridiron Gold Sheet (this is the 2nd week we've seen this one)
NCAA Best Bets (5-3-2)
NFL Best Bets (2-6-0)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (1-3-1)
4* (2-3)
3* (3-2)
Upset pick (3-2)
Betcha Didn't Know (4-4)
Awesome Angle (2-2-1)
Incredible Stat (3-2)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (1-2-1)
4* (1-3)
3* (2-2)

Pointwise NCAA
1* (2-7)
2* (3-2)
3* (1-4)
4* (4-6)
5* (7-3)

Pointwise NFL
3* (3-1)
4* (6-2)
5* (5-2-1)

PowerSweep NCAA
4* (2-2)
3* (5-5)
2* (5-5)
Underdog Play of the Week (1-4)
Tech Play of the Week (2-3)
Revenge Play of the Week (2-3)
Situational Play of the Week (2-2)
Series Play of the Week (1-0)

PowerSweep NFL (rated NFL plays 0-3 this week)
4* (2-2)
3* (2-2)
2* (2-2)
NFL System play (4-1)
4* Pro Angle (4-0)

Powers Picks NCAA (rated college plays 1-4 this week)
3* (1-3-1)
2* (10-7-1)
1* (0-0)

Powers Picks NFL (rated NFL plays 3-0 this week)
4* (0-0)
3* (3-1)
2* (6-2)
1* (0-0)

Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-1)
NCAA Best Bets (10-6)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0)
NFL Best Bets (6-3)

Red Sheet
90* (0-0)
89* (4-6)
88* (9-10-1)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (1-4)
NCAA 3* (4-1)
NFL 4* (1-3)
NFL 3* (4-0)

Killer Sports, not including teasers (record does not include NFL Week 1)
MTI 5* (1-1)
MTI 4.5* (0-0)
MTI 4* (3-1)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (0-2)
SBB 4* (2-2)
Pick 60 Play of the Week (1-2)

Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (3-3)
2* (4-3)
Team Total of the Week (4-0)

PowerPlays
NCAA 4.5* (4-3)
NCAA 4* (4-11)
NFL 4* (3-1)

Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (10-8-2) (pushed with Navy +12 and Vandy -6 this week)
NFL Key Releases (7-5)

[TAWJR]

85 percent of these guys lose.mmmm

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Reporter

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Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet

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GRIDIRON GOLD SHEET

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Winning Points

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Sports Reporter
Playbook Midweek Alert
Gold Sheet
Gold Sheet Extra
Confidential Kick-Off
Powers' Picks
Gaming Today
Playbook Wise Guys Contest
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Winning Points
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Power Sweep
Power Plays
VSiN Point Spread Weekly

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thank you for posting

[Can'tPickAWinner]

'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 6 college football picks, bets, nuggets

College football season is in full swing, which means it's time for "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica to continue their prognostications.
In this file, they break down Week 6 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and even a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
Here we go with Week 6 picks. Get ready to back -- or fade -- a bunch of 'dogs you normally wouldn't want any part of. Enjoy Week 6.

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The plays

Stanford Steve (3-1 last week, 15-8-2 overall)

The Bear (5-0 last week, 10-11-1 overall)


Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverines (-3.5, 47.5)
Stanford Steve: I love the matchup and advantage Iowa has on each side of the line of scrimmage. The Hawkeyes will welcome offense lineman Alaric Jackson back to the starting lineup, and he gives them the best duo of offensive tackles in the country. Hawkeyes defensive end A.J. Epenesa is an NFL talent, and I expect him to wreak havoc on Saturday in Ann Arbor. Iowa also gets back Julius Brents and Kaevon Merriweather in the secondary, which will help against the Wolverines' elite receivers.
Pick: Iowa +3.5. Iowa 23, Michigan 20.
The Bear: Iowa has all the makings of a 'dog with fleas this week. You can make a great case for the Hawkeyes on the field, but there has been so much line movement here that you're getting the Wolverines at a discount. I'm still not sold on Michigan long-term, but this week I think we see the team most people thought we would see prior to the season.
Pick: Michigan -3.5

Tulane Green Wave (-3, 43) at Army Black Knights
Stanford Steve: The familiarity between these two teams is scary. Tulane defensive coordinator Jack Curtis coached under Army head coach Jeff Monken for three years. Two coaches on the Army staff played for Tulane head coach Willie Fritz. Army is what you thought it would be this season: fourth in the country with 293 rushing yards per game and dead last with 48 passing yards per game. Army has won 15 straight home games, and I think it has enough to keep it close against a Tulane team that I really like.
Pick: Army +3. Tulane 21, Army 20.
The Bear: There is a lot of familiarity between the coaching staffs, but I think the Green Wave get the W. They have already gone on the road and held Auburn to fewer than 4 yards per carry and just 24 points. It was a one-possession game for a long time at Jordan-Hare. Both teams had last week off, and I'll side with the road team that possesses some dangerous skill players.
Pick: Tulane -3

Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-7, 50)
Stanford Steve: Northwestern has not been good this season, but this is where you let Pat Fitzgerald work his magic as an underdog on the road getting a touchdown. Plus, I just don't know how Nebraska gets up off the deck after last week.
Pick: Northwestern +7. Nebraska 27, Northwestern 25.

TCU Horned Frogs at Iowa State Cyclones (-3.5, 45)
The Bear: This line seems a little short to me, but I'm going to play it anyway. The Cyclones should probably be unbeaten and certainly let one get away last week in Waco. TCU's defense looked good against a short-handed Purdue team and against an inferior Kansas side but will face a bigger challenge from Brock Purdy & Co. The Horned Frogs are also going to have to find some offense outside of running back Darius Anderson.
Pick: Iowa State -3.5

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at SMU Mustangs (-13, 62)
The Bear: Tulsa beat SMU last season, so there's probably a bit of a revenge factor in play, but Tulsa hung in there with Oklahoma State this season, so it isn't as if it will be intimidated by Shane Buechele & Co. The Golden Hurricane are a top-30 team nationally in defensive expected points added. If they can avoid turning the ball over -- something TCU and Arkansas State couldn't do against the Ponies -- they have a shot at not only the cover but also an outright win.
Pick: Tulsa +13

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Stay-away games

The Bear


Michigan State Spartans at Ohio State Buckeyes (-20, 50)
Sure, the Spartans have pulled some upsets over the Buckeyes in the past, but they were throttled by OSU in their most recent trip to the 'Shoe. This will be the best defense Ohio State will have faced, so I could see OSU struggling some offensively, but that could mean a 27-3 or 27-17 win.

Utah State Aggies at LSU Tigers (-27.5, 73)
I learned my lesson getting in front of the LSU train with an inferior team in the season opener. I'm sure there are plenty of people tempted to take the Aggies here, as it's an early game with the Tigers hosting Florida next week. But I'm not one of them.

Boston College Eagles at Louisville Cardinals (-6, 60.5)
I doubt many would have had the Cardinals laying a touchdown here in the preseason, but here we are. Predictably, the Eagles played well last week vs. Wake Forest and probably will in this game too. But Louisville could be sitting on the cusp of a nice win for Scott Satterfield following a week off after the near-miss and blown fourth-quarter lead in Tallahassee.

Maryland Terrapins (-13.5, 54.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
A team fresh off a 59-0 blowout loss laying two touchdowns on the road against a team with a new head coach? If that doesn't scream stay away, I don't know what does.

Oregon State Beavers at UCLA Bruins (-6.5, 65.5)
Both lost gut-wrenching games last week. It's anyone's guess who can get off the mat.
Stanford Steve


Michigan State Spartans Ohio State Buckeyes (-20, 50)
Coach Dino going back to Columbus as a huge underdog with Ohio State coming off a monster road win? No, thanks.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (-10, 63) at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Pokes off a big win on the road laying double digits vs. the Red Raiders, who just got run in Norman? Nope.

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The Bear's money-line parlay of the week

Eight-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 returns $52.15.
Penn State -4000
Missouri -2000
Oregon -1100
Georgia -2200
Ohio State -1400
LSU -2700
Boise State -1600
FIU -2000

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The Bear's underdogs to play on the ML and/or in a parlay or round-robin

Hopefully we can continue to win a good number of these. Fourteen of the 21 mentioned here in the past three weeks have won outright. We'll press on a few bigger 'dogs this week, hoping a couple can get the money.
New Mexico +195
West Virginia +340
Pitt +180
Virginia Tech +450
Tulsa +400
Rice +280

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Stanford Steve's no-brainer over to take

Maryland Terrapins (-13.5, 54.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Rutgers has lost two Big Ten games by a combined score of 82-0 and fired its head coach. Maryland is fresh off a 59-0 loss to Penn State in which it gained 128 yards. Take the over.
Pick: Over. Maryland 41, Rutgers 35.

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Stanford Steve's team that might be getting too many points

Troy Trojans at Missouri Tigers (-25, 66.5)
I know that Mizzou has given up only two touchdowns through the air and is allowing quarterbacks to complete only 45% of their passes. But I think Troy's aerial attack can keep it close.
Pick: Troy +25. Missouri 41, Troy 24

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Stanford Steve's Thursday night teaser

Temple -1
Temple-ECU under 57.5
Georgia Southern pick 'em

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Bear Bytes

Upset Saturday?
Each of the past five years, a top-15 team has lost to an unranked team in the first week of October. Included in that mark are six top-10 teams.
2018: No. 8 Auburn at Mississippi State
2018: No. 13 Kentucky at Texas A&M
2018: No. 14 Stanford vs. Utah
2017: No. 3 Oklahoma vs. Iowa State
2017: No. 7 Michigan vs. Michigan State
2016: No. 12 Florida State vs. North Carolina
2015: No. 7 UCLA vs. Arizona State
2014: No. 8 UCLA vs. Utah
2014: No. 2 Oregon vs. Arizona
Here are the top-15 teams playing unranked opponents this week:
No. 5 LSU vs. Utah State
No. 6 Oklahoma at Kansas
No. 8 Wisconsin vs. Kent State
No. 12 Penn State vs. Purdue
No. 9 Notre Dame vs. Bowling Green
No. 11 Texas at West Virginia
No. 3 Georgia vs. Tennessee
No. 13 Oregon vs. Cal
No. 15 Washington at Stanford
Uncertainty at the top?
This is the first AP poll with five teams receiving at least three first-place votes since Nov. 1, 2015, when the top five looked like this:
1. Ohio State 39
2. Baylor 6
3. Clemson 6
4. LSU 5
5. TCU 4
Eventual national champion Alabama had one at that point of the season. That week, two of the teams receiving at least three first-place votes -- LSU and TCU -- lost on the road to ranked teams (Alabama and Oklahoma State).
Give a hoot?
In its previous nine games as a double-digit favorite, Temple is 2-7 ATS with four outright losses. That includes a 38-22 loss at Buffalo two weeks ago as a 13.5-point favorite.
Bulls flop
South Florida is 4-10 ATS in its past 14 games and 2-7 ATS in its past nine games as a favorite, and it has lost nine straight on the field vs. FBS opponents. USF's most recent win against an FBS opponent was Oct. 20, 2018, vs. Connecticut. The Bulls beat the Huskies 38-30 as 33-point favorites.
Money burners
Miami is 5-14 ATS with outright losses in its past 19 games as a favorite. In its past nine games as a double-digit favorite, Miami is 2-7 ATS with four one-possession wins and a straight-up loss (at Pitt in 2017). Included in that is a 17-12 win over Central Michigan two weeks ago as a 30.5-point favorite.
Devil of a time
In its past nine games as a favorite, Duke is 0-9 ATS and has lost eight of them straight-up. Going back further, in their past game 16 games as favorites, the Blue Devils are 2-14 ATS with 12 outright losses.
Still worth a play?
Under Justin Wilcox, Cal is 13-6 ATS with eight outright wins as an underdog. Included in that is a 6-2 ATS mark with four outright wins as a double-digit 'dog.
Rhuler of the universe
In 15 games as an underdog of fewer than seven points, Matt Rhule is 12-3 straight-up (4-0 at Baylor). That includes a 23-21 win over Iowa State last week as a 2.5-point 'dog.
On the farm
The only other time Stanford was a 15-point underdog was 2012 at Oregon, when the Cardinal beat the top-ranked Ducks 17-14 as a 20.5-point 'dog. The last time prior to that in which the Cardinal were a 15-point road 'dog was in 2007, when Jim Harbaugh's Cardinal pulled a 24-23 upset of No. 2 USC as a 40.5-point underdog.
T for take the points?
Georgia is just 3-9-1 ATS in its past 13 games vs. Tennessee.
Mull it over
In his past four games as a home underdog, Dan Mullen is 4-0 ATS with three outright wins. The lone loss was a seven-point defeat to No. 1 Alabama as a 14.5-point 'dog in 2017.
2018 vs. No. 5 LSU (-1): won by 8
2017 vs. No. 1 Alabama (-14.5): lost by 7
2017 vs. No. 12 LSU (-7.5): won by 30
2016 vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (-11): won by 7
Last year, in Mullen's first season at Florida, the Gators won three of four games in which they entered as an underdog (at Mississippi State, vs. LSU and vs. Michigan in the bowl game).
These are the Bulls you want
In its past 12 games as an underdog, Buffalo is 9-2-1 ATS with four outright wins in the past six games.
Spartan shortcoming?
Michigan State failed to cover each of the past two years as an underdog vs. Ohio State, losing by a combined score of 74-9. Prior to that, the Spartans covered each of the previous four games as underdogs against Ohio State, winning three outright.
Still of the night
Oklahoma State is 2-9 ATS in its past 11 games as a favorite in Big 12 play. The Cowboys have lost seven of the 11 games outright. Oklahoma State did beat Kansas State 26-13 last week as a four-point favorite.
Underdog Iowa
Iowa is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games as an underdog vs. Big Ten opponents. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover each of the past seven games in which they entered as underdogs of fewer than seven points. Iowa has won one of its past 10 games in which it was a 'dog of fewer than seven points: a 14-7 win as a two-point 'dog at Minnesota in 2016.
Arbor Day
Michigan has lost each of its past three games in which it entered as a favorite of less than a touchdown: last year in the bowl game vs. Florida, at Ohio State and in the season opener at Notre Dame.
Red River lookahead
Texas is 2-7 ATS in its past nine games as a Big 12 favorite. The Longhorns have failed to cover six of the past seven years in the game prior to Oklahoma.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best bets for Week 6 college football games

Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the second full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly: 10-5-1 (0-3-1 last week)
Kezirian: 17-13 (2-6 last week)
Johnson: 13-12-1 (2-3-1 last week)
Steele: 9-18 (2-3 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
Saturday's games

Texas Longhorns (-10.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers

Connelly: Consider this a test. Tom Herman's teams have never been particularly good at covering as a solid favorite, but Texas has handled its business nicely this season, scoring at least 36 points in every game, beating Louisiana Tech and Rice with ease and beating an underrated Oklahoma State squad. No missteps yet.
Without taking injuries into account, my SP+ ratings project a pretty easy go for the Longhorns in Morgantown; they have them winning 79% of the time by an average score of 38-24. The Texas secondary is quite banged up, and while I haven't been very lucky in this column when it comes to determining which teams will and won't deal well with injuries, West Virginia is a perfect opponent for a team with a suddenly shaky secondary -- the Mountaineers don't produce big pass plays and aren't all that efficient with the shorter stuff. I think this is one the Longhorns can still handle pretty well.
ATS pick: Texas -10.5

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UMass Minutemen at Florida International Panthers (-26.5)

Connelly: File this one purely under "no one should be a nearly 27-point underdog against FIU." The Panthers are just 105th in SP+, and although their offense seems to be picking up with the return of quarterback James Morgan from injury, the defense still allowed 42 to Tulane and 43 to Louisiana Tech.
Now ... if anyone could get destroyed by a pretty iffy team, it's probably UMass. Walt Bell's Minutemen are 102nd in SP+, 130th on defense and managed to give up 29 points and over 400 yards to Akron, which has maybe the worst offense in FBS. But even with these obvious deficiencies, they are still only an 18.4-point projected underdog, per SP+ (something in the neighborhood of 40-22). FIU's offense will be super-prolific, but I'm banking on UMass keeping up for a while. Backup quarterback Michael Curtis is playing for the injured Andrew Brito, and there's a chance that's an upgrade.
ATS pick: UMass +26.5

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Memphis Tigers (-14.5) at ULM Warhawks

Connelly: Memphis has been handling its business. The Tigers pulled away from Southern U. and mauled South Alabama; they also handled two solid tests at home, beating Ole Miss by five and Navy by 12.
ULM has had its moments this season, nearly upsetting Florida State and handling South Alabama by 13 points last week, but the Warhawks lost 72-20 to the only good defensive team they've faced this year (Iowa State), and SP+ projects the Tigers with a nearly 25-point edge here. I don't think it'll get that bad, but Memphis' defense is supremely underrated, and while the offense has all-or-nothing tendencies -- explosive as anyone but not particularly efficient -- it should be able to find some gashes against a ULM defense that SP+ ranks 121st.
ATS pick: Memphis -14.5

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Temple Owls (-11.5, 48) at East Carolina Pirates

Johnson: Both the ECU side and the under 48 in this game are half-sized wagers for me. The reasoning here is pretty straightforward: Only eight teams in the country are running fewer plays per game than the Pirates. The Owls are allowing just 4.0 yards per play, which is eighth-best in the nation, and both teams rank outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. My projections are ECU +9.6 and 45.3, so I'm taking a smaller shot on each within the same game.
Pick: ECU +11.5 and under 48

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Troy Trojans at Missouri Tigers (-25, 65)

Johnson: Both Troy and Missouri rank in the top five in the country in plays run per game, and Troy's defense ranks 123rd (out of 130 teams) in defensive efficiency. The Trojans have faced Campbell, Southern Miss, Akron and Arkansas State.
Their matchup this past Saturday with the Red Wolves was the most head-scratching, though, as the Trojans gave up 50 points to Arkansas State's backup freshman quarterback Layne Hatcher in his first start. The college football gods know what the Missouri offense can do to this Troy defense. There is a 42% chance of rain at kickoff, so this total has ticked down some from 66.5 to 65. I don't think the weather is going to impact the game much, and the winds are still relatively light. The over 65 is worth betting, and when Missouri's team total comes out later this week around 44 or 45 points, that will be worth a look as well.
Pick: Over 65

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Arizona Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes (-4.5, 63)

Johnson: The Wildcats have switched to a 3-3-5 defensive scheme the past two weeks and it has transformed their identity. After giving up 45 points to Hawaii and 41 to Northern Arizona, the Wildcats allowed only 14 to Texas Tech and 17 to UCLA after the switch. Whether or not Khalil Tate plays under center, this number is too high. Backup quarterback Grant Gunnell was good enough against the Bruins in Arizona State's 20-17 win, but he's certainly an easier player to prepare for defensively -- and the Buffaloes have had a bye week and extra time to prepare for this matchup. This total should be closer to 60 assuming Tate plays, but my projection doesn't weigh in just how drastically the switch to the 3-3-5 appears to have impacted the Arizona defense. There's even more upside there, so I bet the under.
Pick: Under 63

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Michigan State Spartans at Ohio State Buckeyes (-20, 49)

Johnson: My projection for the total in this game is only 46.7, and I'm extremely concerned about this Sparty offense trying to score on the country's second-best defense to this point in the season (allowing just 3.3 yards per play). After allowing a plethora of explosive plays a year ago, Ohio State deserves credit for shoring up its execution defensively. On the other side of the ball for the Buckeyes, they face a Michigan State squad that fields the fifth-best defense. This is by far the biggest test for Justin Fields, and we know that Mark Dantonio is going to try to limit the number of possessions in this game and slow it down as much as possible.
Everything lines up for an under play as far as my personal projections, the matchup between two elite defenses and the likely game script.
Pick: Under 49

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No. 15 Washington Huskies (-16) at Stanford Cardinal

Steele: The Cardinal are 10-4 in their past 14 meetings with the Huskies and have won the past five home games in the series by 18.4 points per game. Last week Stanford jumped out to a 21-0 lead at Oregon State but needed a field goal with one second left for the win. The Cardinal's defense has played well at home, allowing just 265 yards per game (facing Northwestern and Oregon). Washington was in a great spot last week at home as the Huskies caught USC off a big home win of their own and the Trojans were down to their third-string QB. David Shaw is 45-9 straight up at home and the Cardinal have faced the fourth-toughest schedule in the country.
ATS pick: Stanford +16
Score: Washington 27, Stanford 17
Kezirian: I'm not going to overreact to Stanford hanging 31 points on Oregon State. This is still a pedestrian offense that is unwilling to get into a shootout with a team like Washington. The Huskies also have a stout defense, and that will compel David Shaw to operate even more conservatively than he normally does. Washington does have the firepower to light up the scoreboard, but Chris Petersen is also willing to lean on his defense in the second half, like we saw last week against USC.
Pick: Under 52

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Boston College Eagles at Louisville Cardinals (-6.5)

Steele: Boston College has played well this year except for that Kansas home loss, which has defined the Eagles' season. They had a 533-440 yard edge versus Wake Forest last week but were minus-2 in turnovers and lost by three points as a 7-point home underdog. Last time Boston College traveled here, running back AJ Dillon rushed for 272 yards. Boston College is 10-2 ATS its past 12 regular-season road games, and Louisville is 1-8 ATS in ACC games the previous two years. Last year Boston College won 38-20 at home and Dillon was out with an injury, but he is fully healthy this year, the Eagles are the stronger team and they're getting nearly a touchdown.
ATS pick: Boston College +6.5
Score: Boston College 31, Louisville 30

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Utah State Aggies at No. 5 LSU Tigers (-27.5)
Steele: Gary Andersen is 15-2 ATS as an away underdog as the head coach of Utah State. Ed Orgeron is just 5-8 ATS in nonconference games and has a huge home game on deck against Florida. Utah State has a bye next week and a dangerous offense (533 yards per game) led by an NFL-caliber QB in Jordan Love. Night games in Death Valley are very tough for an opponent, but this one kicks at 11:00 am CT. LSU is banged up on defense and will want to keep those players healthy for next week's game. The Tigers have been very impressive this year playing at an average game grade of 109.4 in my ratings, but Utah State has been equally impressive with an average game grade of 99.2. Love gives the Aggies backdoor potential as well, should they need it.
ATS pick: Utah State +27.5
Score: LSU 49, Utah State 28
Kezirian: By now, the secret is out that LSU's offense is much more dynamic this season and is finally delivering on all of its potential. The Tigers lead the nation with 57.8 PPG and rank third with 564 YPG. Meanwhile, the Aggies have a respectable offense and Ed Orgeron this week called it "faster than any team" the Tigers have faced. Love should find enough opportunities, even with this high a total.
Pick: Over 74

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North Carolina Tar Heels (-10.5) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Steele: UNC has faced five bowl-caliber teams and is 2-3 with losses by just 3.3 points per game, including a missed two-point conversion away from upsetting Clemson last week. The Tar Heels have a potent offense led by a dynamic running back corps, and QB Sam Howell has an 11-2 TD-INT ratio.
This looked like a rebuilding year for Georgia Tech coming in, as head coach Geoff Collins inherited option personnel and is trying to shift to the spread. The Yellow Jackets are averaging just 10 points per game against FBS foes.
ATS pick: North Carolina -10.5
Score: North Carolina 30, Georgia Tech 13
Kezirian: This could be a flat spot for North Carolina, but I'm banking on its near upset of top-ranked Clemson as an energy boost. Mack Brown said as much this week, indicating the program's goals of bowl eligibility and a rematch with the Tigers in the ACC championship game remain viable. That push starts with this game.
Georgia Tech has been incredibly inept this season (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS), and I can't resist the opportunity to lay a reasonable number against it. In their past two games, the Jackets failed to score on offense against Temple and lost to an FCS school (The Citadel). I imagine Brown will have his guys ready for what should be a one-sided victory.
ATS pick: North Carolina -10.5

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Maryland Terrapins (-13.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Steele: Maryland has been somewhat predictable in the past two years. When matched up against an average to below-average rush defense, the Terrapins look unstoppable. They have topped 165 rushing yards in eight games the previous two years and have put up 51.1 PPG in those contests. But when they face a solid rush defense, the Terps struggle. Last year they rushed for 290 yards and 7.3 yards per carry and beat Rutgers by 27. Rutgers is allowing 198 rushing yards per game this year and 4.6 YPC. My computer has Maryland topping 240 rush yards in this game.
Rutgers just fired its coach and offensive coordinator, which can be tough to deal with as a team midseason. Last year Rutgers averaged 246 yards per game and 11 points per game in Big Ten action, and versus three Power 5 teams this year is averaging just 219 yards per game and 5.3 points per game.
ATS pick: Maryland -13.5
Score: Maryland 41, Rutgers 17

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California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks (-18)

Kezirian: Cal QB Chase Garbers suffered a shoulder injury in Friday's home loss to Arizona State and now the Bears are relegated to Devon Modster for an indefinite period of time. This spells doom for a team that already had an inconsistent offense. Against Arizona State, Modster looked lost and incapable of making a reasonable throw down the field. I suppose he will be more comfortable with a full week of practice, but this is nonetheless a bleak situation (following the Garbers injury, Cal opened the second half with 12 consecutive run plays).
The Ducks are no longer allergic to this type of game, knowing their offense will eventually grind out the victory. They demonstrated that recently in their 21-6 win over Stanford, and I expect this game to follow a similar script. I expect the Ducks to play conservatively with the intention of avoiding any costly turnovers, knowing they can win a game of chicken with Modster.
Pick: Under 46.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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Mendoza Line Year to Date Newsletter Tracking Through October 6, 2019

Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.

Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.

A few games this week (Penn State/Purdue, Tex/WV, etc.) that landed near the line. Remember, these games are graded against the number in the newsletter.

There are no plays pending for Monday Night Football.

Confidential Kick-Off
11* (3-2)
10* (11-14)
o/u (4-5)

Gridiron Gold Sheet (records reflect 3 weeks of GGS)
NCAA Best Bets (8-5-2)
NFL Best Bets (6-6-0) (4-0 this week)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (1-4-1)
4* (2-4)
3* (4-2)
Upset pick (3-3)
Betcha Didn't Know (5-5)
Awesome Angle (2-3-1)
Incredible Stat (4-2)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (2-2-1)
4* (1-4)
3* (2-3)

Pointwise NCAA
1* (3-8)
2* (3-3)
3* (1-5)
4* (5-7)
5* (9-3)

Pointwise NFL
3* (3-2)
4* (8-2)
5* (5-4-1)

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (3-2)
3* (5-7)
2* (7-5)
Underdog Play of the Week (2-4)
Tech Play of the Week (2-4)
Revenge Play of the Week (2-4)
Situational Play of the Week (2-2)
Series Play of the Week (1-1)

Power Sweep NFL (NFL plays 5-0 this week)
4* (3-2)
3* (3-2)
2* (3-2)
NFL System play (5-1)
4* Pro Angle (5-0)

Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (3-3-1)
2* (11-9-1)
1* (0-0)

Powers' Picks NFL
4* (0-0)
3* (3-2)
2* (8-2)
1* (0-0)

Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-1)
NCAA Best Bets (12-8)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0)
NFL Best Bets (7-4)

Red Sheet
90* (0-0)
89* (4-8)
88* (13-10-1)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (2-4)
NCAA 3* (5-1)
NFL 4* (1-4)
NFL 3* (4-1)

Killer Sports, not including teasers (record does not include NFL Week 1)
MTI 5* (1-1)
MTI 4.5* (1-1)
MTI 4* (3-1)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (0-2)
SBB 4* (3-3)
Pick 60 Play of the Week (1-3)
Cajun NCAA (1-1)

Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (4-3)
2* (6-3)
Team Total of the Week (4-1)

Power Plays (5-2 overall this week)
NCAA 4.5* (6-3)
NCAA 4* (7-12)
NFL 4* (3-2)

Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (12-10-2)
NFL Key Releases (8-7)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GRIDIRON GOLD SHEET

Power Sweep

Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet

Sports Reporter

Winning Points

Power Plays

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Sweep
Power Plays
Powers' Picks
Playbook Wise Guys Contest
Gold Sheet
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Gaming Today
Sports Reporter
Winning Points
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Gridiron Gold Sheet
VSiN Point Spread Weekly