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Zcode NCAAF Week 5 predictions

NCAAF is in full swing and it’s time to jump in on the action. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. NCAAF doesn’t have the betting volume that the NFL gets so we will have to be selective in our approach. But books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Wednesday (9/27) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.

OKLAHOMA STATE @ TEXAS TECH
Oklahoma State took their first loss of the season last week but they are ranked 15th in the country and the public expects them to bounce back.
Winning on the road in Lubbock is very difficult, especially at night. Texas Tech will throw everything they have at Oklahoma State and should get a great effort. This line is dropping down so I think we can go ahead and jump on Texas Tech +10 (BetOnline)

HOUSTON @ TEMPLE
Houston is the team with the pedigree and the public has jumped on the bandwagon.
This is a tough road trip for Houston after losing a close game at home vs Texas Tech. Temple is already 0-1 in conference play and this is a must win for them so a huge effort should be expected. Let’s take Temple +14 (5Dimes).

VANDERBILT @ FLORIDA
Vanderbilt was crushed by Alabama and Florida was lucky to get a win vs Kentucky. Florida has not looked good and the public is on the Vanderbilt train.
Florida changed quarterbacks for this game and Luke Del Rio should be an upgrade from what they were getting at that position. Vanderbilt has been a trendy sleeper team but after a meltdown last week I don’t think it gets any easier for them against a hungry Florida team. Let’s take Florida -10(Bookmaker).

Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2017, 09:31 AM

THE TGS EXTRA
SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2, 2017 NO. 5

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

COLLEGE TECH PLAYS

EASTERN MICHIGAN

While Kentucky has been focusing on climbing the SEC East ladder in recent years, it has left itself vulnerable in non-conference opposition. The Wildcats haven’t learned how to take care of business in those sorts of games, dropping their last seven vs. the line in intersectional play, and face another of those tricky assignments on Saturday in Lexington vs. undervalued Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have offered pretty good spread value lately, especially away from Ypsilanti, where they’ve covered 8 of their last 9. Note that UK is also a subpar 1-6 its last 7 as double-digit chalk.

NAVY

There’s a reason why Navy often frequents the Tech Plays box, as it does again this Saturday for its trip to Tulsa. Simply, the Mids have been offering good spread value for years, especially on the road, where they stand a solid 21-11 vs. the line their last 32. They’ve also won and covered the last two years vs. the Golden Hurricane, and are always a featured recommendation in the Coach and Pointspread system with HC Ken Niumatalolo. Note that Tulsa continues to provide better value on the road than at home, where it is 9-17 vs. the line since the 2013 campaign.

NEW MEXICO STATE

We hope we aren’t too late to catch up with this emerging go-with trend of New Mexico State, which takes its act to Fayetteville for a battle vs. misfiring Arkansas on Saturday. Simply, the Aggies have been one of the nation’s best pointspread bargains this season, covering their first four against the number, success that carries back to last season, with NMSU now 11-4 vs. the points its last 15 on the board. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have been nothing special for a while as chalk, covering just 5 of their last 13 in that role, and have dropped their last four vs. the number against non-SEC foes.

FRESNO STATE

Several teams have emerged as pointspread forces to watch in September. One of those is Fresno State, which is a spotless 3-0 vs. the line (including covers at two of last year’s Final Four participants, Alabama and Washington), and looks to add another W on Saturday at Bulldog Stadium vs. struggling Nevada. The bulldogs’ recent spread prowess stretches to last season as they’ve now covered five straight and eight of ten, and they’re 5-2 vs. the line the last seven vs. the Wolf Pack. Note Nevada has dropped its last three spread decisions, with a woeful -23.25 “AFS” (Away from Spread) mark its last two games.

NFL TECH PLAYS

NEW ORLEANS

It looks like New Orleans is alive again after last week’s romp at Carolina, and the Saints look to continue their uptick on Sunday at Wembley Stadium in London vs. Miami. Traveling across the pond should be no bother to New Orleans, which seems to play better away from the Superdome anyway, covering 8 of its last 10 away from home. Note that the travel-weary Dolphins are playing their third straight on the road, where they’ve covered just 9 of their last 22.

BUF-ATL “OVER”

The premier “over” trend in the NFL belongs to Atlanta, which looks to improve upon that mark on Sunday at new Mercedes Benz Stadium against visiting Buffalo. The Falcs are now “over” 18-4 since last season, including 11 straight at home. Meanwhile, the Bills have been trending “over” lately as well (13-6 since last season).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2017, 09:32 AM

Zcode NFL WEEK 4 fade-the-public picks and predictions

Sweep! 3-0 ATS in Week 3 which improves our YTD to 7-2. Let’s see if we cankeep it going with a few potential plays for Week 4. The main strategy I wantto implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit publicperception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a fewheavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Tuesday (9/26) soalways keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.

JACKSONVILLE @ NEWYORK JETS
While the Jets quietly beat a bad Dolphins team, the public took notice asJacksonville dominated Baltimore in London.
It’s always tough to play the next week after being in London and the Jetswill be looking to carry the momentum from their first win of the season intothis week. Let’s take NewYork +3.5 (BetOnline)

CAROLINA @ NEWENGLAND
The Panthers were awful last week against the Saints and the Patriots wereable to sneak away with a close win over Houston. As always, New England is ahuge public favorite:
While Carolina has been struggling offensively all season, New England hashistorically had problems with mobile quarterbacks and this could be the gamethat Cam Newton breaks out. With such one-sided action we are able to get asolid underdog at a great number. Let’s take Carolina +10 (5Dimes)

TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON
We’re going to take a little different strategy with this game. The Titansare coming off a huge win over Seattle while Houston hung tough but came upshort against New England. I think there will be some separation in the percentagesbut as of now the public is relatively split.
I think Houston is the sharp side and catching this line early will allow usto get a few points. The Texans return home after a tough loss while the Titansare in a potential letdown spot. Let’s take Houston +2(Bookmaker)

Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lotsof wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentagesthroughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when thepublic side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the bettingvolume grows.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2017, 02:01 PM

Playbook Wise Guys Contest

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2017, 02:05 PM

Playbook Midweek Alert

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2017, 02:05 PM

Gaming Today September 26 - October 2
Winning Points
Sports Reporter
Gold Sheet
Pointwise
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Nelly's Green Sheet
Victor King's Totals Tipsheet
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Powers' Picks
Killer Sports
Confidential Kick-Off
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NFL
CFB Advisor
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Gold Sheet Xtra Plays

Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's September 27 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Phil Steele's September 27 Podcast with Michael Reghi - Strong as Steele

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