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Joe Gavazzi's
NFL Pointspread Prognosis 2018 Issue 13
Best Bets
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals
Philadelphia Eagles
Best Bets
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals
Philadelphia Eagles
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Season records
Steele: 41-36-2 ATS (last week: 3-4)
Coughlin: 41-21-1 ATS (last week: 3-3)
Fallica: 40-37-1 ATS (last week: 0-7)
With conference championship week upon us, there's one more opportunity for teams to jockey for position in the College Football Playoffs and a number of prime bowl game opportunities. These remaining games offer a chance for the most observant bettors to take advantage of what they've learned throughout the season. As is the case every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin pick their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are the best bets for Week 14 of the college football season.
Lines from Westgate SuperBook, as of Wednesday afternoon.
Clemson Tigers (-27.5) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (O/U 53.5)
8 p.m. ET, Saturday, ABC/Watch ESPN
Fallica: I normally wouldn't think of laying this many points, as the Panthers are usually very reliable in the role of big underdogs. But I think Pitt wins the bad timing award this week, as Clemson gave up 600 yards (510 through the air) last week vs. South Carolina. Now Clemson gets the 101st-rated pass offense in terms of expected points and there is also the fact that the Panthers upset the Tigers two years ago as a massive underdog. There will be no looking past Pitt to the CFP. And if you're concerned about laying this big of a number, know there have been five conference title games where the spread has been at least 24 points. Those five 24-point favorites went 4-1 ATS, with 2011 Oregon the only team not to cover as a 31-point favorites vs. UCLA. The five teams that covered all won by at least 31 points. The UCF offense put 45 on the board vs. Pitt, and Clemson should do the same.
ATS Pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 45, Pitt 14
Utah Utes vs. Washington Huskies (-5, O/U 44.5)
8 p.m. ET, Friday, Fox
Fallica: This is the second time this year the Utes and Huskies will meet. UW was a 21-7 winner in Salt Lake City in a game that Utah quarterback Tyler Huntley was just 20-for-38 passing for 138 yards and Zack Moss had only 11 carries for 67 yards as he was hampered because of an ankle injury. So their absence won't necessarily hamper the Utes' offense, as Jason Shelley has done a good job in Huntley's absence. In that game, the Utes had three critical, sloppy turnovers and went 0-for-3 on fourth down, including once after an interception return that was looking as if it would be returned for a TD. Jake Browning was just 14-for-24 passing in the game and had a 41 QBR, so it wasn't as if the Washington offense did much that night. Some numbers to digest: Washington is 3-9 ATS this year and 1-7 ATS as a favorite in Pac-12 play, covering the first meeting vs. Utah as a 4-point favorite. Nine of the Huskies' 12 games have gone under this year, including three times with totals in the 40s. Utah is 13-5-1 ATS with eight outright wins in its 19 games as an underdog since the start of the 2014 season. That includes a 3-1 ATS mark as a dog against the Huskies. In a revenge spot, in what I expect to be a low-scoring game, I'll take the points.
ATS Pick: Utah
Score: Washington 23, Utah 20
Coughlin: Last week was the effort from the Huskies that I expected all year, as they had their way in the Apple Cup, beating Washington State. And, with the return of tight end Hunter Bryant and running back Myles Gaskin, this offense is clicking on all cylinders and as lethal as there is in the conference. When you look at the head coaches in this matchup, it doesn't get any better; both of these guys are as good as it gets and will have their teams ready to go. I know Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is 14-5-1 in his past 20 as an underdog ATS, but I have to lean to the side of the purple and gold, especially because of the Utes losing some key players on their offense. I just think coach Chris Petersen has better personnel and a couple of more tricks up his sleeve. I'll take the Huskies to win and cover.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 27, Utah 17
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-14, O/U 60.5)
8 p.m. ET, Saturday, Fox
Fallica: I'm banking on the Ohio State team we've seen for much of the season being the team that shows up in Indianapolis on Saturday night. After looking over on the other sideline last week and seeing that winged helmet as a favorite on their home field and getting an emotional boost, it's human nature that the Buckeyes will look across the field this week, see those purple uniforms and "N" on the helmet and see an easy win as a foregone conclusion. The problem is Northwestern is 12-3 ATS with nine outright wins in its past 15 games as an underdog. And it its past 11 games as a double-digit dog, the Wildcats are 10-1 ATS with seven outright wins. Additionally, in its past seven games as an underdog in Big Ten play, Northwestern is 7-0 ATS with six outright wins, including two outright wins as a double-digit dog. Most are assuming Ohio State will put forth a 2014 CFP type statement here, and I know Northwestern hasn't faced many offenses like Ohio State's all season and that could be a problem, but I'll back the disrespected underdogs who rarely fail to show in this role.
ATS Pick: Northwestern
Score: Ohio State 38, Northwestern 28
Steele: I am fully aware that Northwestern is on a 13-2-1 ATS as an underdog, but I like the Buckeyes here. Though Ohio State has struggled most of the year, it still has outgained its foes by 145 yards per game. Northwestern has been a great story as it wrapped up the Big Ten West title three weeks ago, and it has won 15 out of 16 Big Ten games dating to last year. On the season, the Wildcats are being outgained by 21 yards per game. Ohio State's defense has been hurt by explosive players all season, giving up a boatload of big plays. When the Buckeyes matched up against a pedestrian offense in Michigan State, they held them to only 274 yards. Northwestern has a run game that averages only 3.0 yards per carry, and in the past six games, Clayton Thorson has thrown for only 153 yards per game with a 6-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Though Northwestern's offense gains 29 yards per game below what its opponents usually give up, Ohio State's offense gains 165 yards per game above what its foes usually give up, which is second best in the country. The last time Ohio State entered the Big Ten title game needing an impressive win to make the College Football Playoff, it won 59-0 over Wisconsin in 2014 and went on to win the national championship that season.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 40, Northwestern 17
Stanford Cardinal (-3) at California Golden Bears (O/U 47)
3 p.m. ET, Saturday, Pac-12 Network
Coughlin: This one just doesn't feel right. Cal has overcome a lot this year, with its biggest win a comeback road victory over USC two weeks ago to become bowl eligible. When I look back, the last time these two rivals came into "Big Game" with the same record, it was Cal that came out victorious in Palo Alto as Stanford was a pretty big favorite. It might be the most painful loss to me of the Jim Harbaugh/David Shaw era on The Farm. Stanford has won every meeting since, but you have to remember Cal equaled its longest win streak in the series with five straight victories from 2002 to 2006 and won seven of eight from 2002 to 2009. The Bears have done whatever they have needed to do this season on offense to get wins, and they even beat Washington without scoring an offensive TD. I think the home team covers.
ATS pick: Cal
Score: Cal 21, Stanford 20
Oklahoma Sooners (-8) vs. Texas Longhorns(O/U 78)
12 p.m. ET, Saturday, ABC/Watch ESPN
Coughlin: Plenty has been made of Tom Herman as an underdog and the success he and his teams have with him as a head coach. On the other side, plenty has been made of the Oklahoma defense, as it comes in giving up an average or more than 32 points per game. The last time the teams played, Oklahoma was a little more than a touchdown favorite, which is what it is in this matchup, too. Last year, I got burned in this spot, as I picked TCU to upset Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, seeing how I thought coach Gary Patterson and his defensive scheme would be better in the rematch. I do think the world of Texas defensive coordinator Todd Orlando and of course Herman, but I just like the talent on the OU offense more than what the Longhorns have on the defensive side of the ball. Plus, the game will be played indoors, so not even a little weather can get in the way of Kyler Murray and the Sooners. I think OU wins and covers.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 48, Texas 37
Steele: For the first time since 1903, these rivals will meet twice in the same season. Each of the past five meetings has been decided by seven points or fewer, and Texas has covered six in a row in the series. When these teams met on Oct. 6, I used Texas (+8) as one of my ESPN picks that week and the Longhorns won outright 48-45 as they kicked the winning field goal with nine seconds left. Oklahoma has the nation's most potent offense but also has a defense that has given up 623 yards per game in its past three games, which is 182 yards per game more than before that stretch. Texas has three losses this year, and they are by five, three and one point. Oklahoma has won its past four games by six points per game but was favored by an average of 18 points in those games. Herman is not only 13-1 ATS as an underdog in his career as a head coach, but also has won 10 of those contests outright. Texas has a significant edge on defense, and though Murray is a legitimate Heisman contender, Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has thrown for 23 touchdowns and only four interceptions.
ATS pick: Texas
Score: Oklahoma 45, Texas 44
Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Buffalo Bulls(-3.5)
7 p.m. ET, Friday, ESPN 2
Steele: These teams have met 12 times with Northern Illinois having an 11-1 record. NIU is the champion of the stronger Western Division of the Mid-American Conference and clinched the title three weeks ago. With nothing to play for, the Huskies dropped their final two games and that is why they are an underdog for this game. NIU is battle-tested having faced a nonconference slate of Iowa, Utah, Florida State, and BYU. These two have faced six common MAC foes, and NIU was plus-74 yards per game in those games and Buffalo was just plus-24 yards per game. Buffalo QB Tyree Jackson got off to a great start this year, but in the past three games has thrown for only 126 yards per game, completing 49 percent of his passes with a 2-3 ratio. NIU has a significant edge on defense, and head coach Rod Carey is now in his fourth MAC title game, and Buffalo has not been here since 2008. NIU has taken on the much tougher schedule and has a stronger defense. I feel the better team is the underdog and will take the Huskies to win outright.
ATS pick: Northern Illinois
Score: Northern Illinois 23, Buffalo 20Comment
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Power Plays
Power Sweep
Sports Reporter
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Winning Points
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Powers' Picks PointwiseRed Sheet
VSIN Point Spread Weekly
Wise Guys Contest
Joe Gavazzi's CFB Pointspread Prognosis
Joe Gavazzi's NFL Pointspread Prognosis 2018 Issue 13
Gaming Today November 28 - December 4
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Power Plays
Power Sweep
Sports Reporter
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Winning Points
Gaming Today November 28 - December 4
Powers' Picks
Pointwise
Red Sheet
VSIN Point Spread Weekly
Wise Guys Contest
Joe Gavazzi's CFB Pointspread Prognosis
Joe Gavazzi's NFL Poinstread Prognosis
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Sports Illustrated College Tip Sheet
Sports Illustrated Pro Football Tip Sheet
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NFL
Killer Sports NFL ReportComment
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Mendoza Line Newsletter Tracking (through 12/2/18)
Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.
Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.
Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (37-30-4)
NFL Best Bets (32-18-2)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (6-7)
4* (6-7)
3* (5-7-1)
Upset pick (4-10)
Betcha Didn't Know (4-18-1)
Awesome Angle (5-11)
Incredible Stat (6-7-1)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (9-4)
4* (7-6)
3* (7-6)
Pointwise NCAA (0-4 overall this week)
1* (9-14-2)
2* (4-9)
3* (5-9)
4* (14-11-2)
5* (16-12)
Pointwise NFL
3* (5-8)
4* (8-16-1) (Washington +7 pending for MNF)
5* (11-15)
PowerSweep NCAA
4* (9-4)
3* (14-12)
2* (17-10-2)
Underdog Play of the Week (6-6-1)
Tech Play of the Week (5-2-1)
Revenge Play of the Week (5-7)
Situational Play of the Week (6-4)
Series Play of the Week (6-3)
PowerSweep NFL
4* (6-7)
3* (6-6-1)
2* (5-7-1)
NFL System play (7-8)
4* Pro Angle (0-4)
Powers Picks NCAA
3* (15-10)
2* (25-16)
1* (0-0)
Powers Picks NFL
4* (0-0)
3* (5-7)
2* (19-6-1)
1* (0-0)
Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (4-2)
NCAA Best Bets (24-20)
NFL Super Best Bets (1-0)
NFL Best Bets (12-12) (Philadelphia -6.5 pending for MNF)
Red Sheet
90* (0-0-1)
89* (14-12)
88* (27-29-1)
Winning Points (0-3 overall this week)
NCAA 4* (9-4)
NCAA 3* (5-9)
NFL 4* (6-7)
NFL 3* (6-7)
Killer Sports, not including teasers (4-0 overall this week)
MTI 5* (0-2)
MTI 4.5* (7-6-1)
MTI 4* (5-5)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (1-7)
SBB 4* (10-7-1)
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (5-8)
2* (16-10)
PowerPlays
NCAA 4.5* (26-17-1)
NCAA 4* (26-30)
NFL 4* (8-4-1)
Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (24-28-1)
NFL Key Releases (18-17-3) (Washington +7 pending for MNF)
Megalocks
First Release Plays (9-1-2)Comment
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MEGALOCKS
PINSTRIPE BOWL
Miami Hurricanes vs Wisconsin Badgers
The Game
Here we go!
The tension is PALPABLE. Two 7-5 teams square off at Yankee Stadium including YOUR Miami Hurricanes. We had higher hopes for the Badgers this season but sketchier-than-normal QB play combined with sub-par defense (by their standards) led to a disappointing regular season. Miami was flaky (again?) this year and won just two of their final six contests. Bottom line? Both teams were inconsistent and failed to meet market (and their own) expectations. Who can bag a bit of redemption?
The Details
Miami -3.5 Wisconsin (47)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em
Sagarin Ratings – Miami -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Miami 25.25 Wisconsin 21.75
The Match-Up
Miami offense vs Wisconsin defense
Well, this has not been pretty, yo. N’Kosi Perry has done his best at QB but has been plagued by a decimated WR and TE corps. And the guys left? Well, let’s just say they are having a hard time catching the football. Not ideal. The Canes are ranked #92 in total offense and are having a really hard time getting anything done on a consistent basis. RB Travis Homer is approaching 1,000 yards on the season but the #1 WR left on the roster is Lawrence Cager (352 yards) and he is at best a #3 guy at the present moment. Watching these guys over the last half of the season it has become apparent that they lack an identity. Wisconsin has been a disappointment on defense. The Badgers have only managed to bag 18 sacks all season (42 last year) and are #5 in the Big Ten in yards per play allowed. They have shown some improvement in the latter statistic (#12 YPP Big Ten mid-season) but are still far from the stop unit we used to seeing on the field.
Wisconsin offense vs Miami defense
We have to be fair. The Badgers have also had some struggles on offense, particularly in the passing game. QB Alex Hornibrook has struggled with interceptions (11) but has managed to average 7.5 yards per attempt whilst dealing with a sub-par WR and TE group. The good news? RB Jonathan Taylor is not only on the all-MEGALOCKS team BUT also really close to hitting the seemingly-impossible 2,000-yard rushing barrier (1,989). As a team? The Badgers are averaging 6.3 yards per carry which ranks #4 in the FBS. Wisconsin has found it difficult to MATRICULATE down the field in the passing game (longest pass play all season long was 44 yards) and that might be a problem vs the #2 D in the FBS that only allows 23.7% conversions on 3rd down (#1 FBS).
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Did anyone say “weather”? Miami is a MUCH better team at home. And let’s not talk about the prospects of this team playing outdoors at Yankee Stadium on December 27th….It’s hard to believe but there is a lot of unhappiness in Miami Hurricanes land….What’s up with recruiting?….Do we have the right HC?……Why are players leaving the program?
Summary
This feels like a coin toss. If there is some bad weather? It seems to us that Wisconsin will have a big edge. Miami has struggled to find an identity on offense all season long and have wasted a really good performance from the defense.
Conclusion
Official play: Wisconsin +3.5Comment
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Sports Reporter
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Winning Points
Gaming Today December 5-11
Wise Guys Contest
VSIN Point Spread Weekly
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Powers' Picks
Pointwise
Joe Gavazzi's NFL Pointspread Prognosis
Marc Lawrence's Playbook Midweek Alert
Killer Sports NFL Report
PLAYBOOK - MIDWEEK ALERT (Marc Lawrence)
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Sports Reporter
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Winning Points
Gaming Today December 5-11
Wise Guys Contest
VSIN Point Spread Weekly
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Powers' Picks
Pointwise
Joe Gavazzi's NFL Pointspread Prognosis
Marc Lawrence's Playbook Midweek Alert
Killer Sports NFL Report
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - Army/Navy game
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NFL
Sports Illustrated Pro Football Tip Sheet
Comment
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Mendoza Line Newsletter Tracking (through 12/9/18)
NFL only the rest of the season.
Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.
Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.
Gridiron Gold Sheet
NFL Best Bets (34-20-2)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (10-4)
4* (7-7)
3* (8-6)
Upset pick (4-11)
Betcha Didn't Know (4-18-1)
Awesome Angle (6-12)
Incredible Stat (7-7-1)
Pointwise NFL
3* (6-8)
4* (9-18-1)
5* (11-17)
PowerSweep NFL
4* (6-8)
3* (6-7-1)
2* (6-7-1)
NFL System play (7-9)
4* Pro Angle (0-4)
Powers Picks NFL
4* (0-0)
3* (6-7)
2* (20-7-1)
1* (0-0)
Sports Reporter
NFL Super Best Bets (1-0)
NFL Best Bets (14-13)
Winning Points
NFL 4* (7-7)
NFL 3* (7-7)
Killer Sports, not including teasers (8-0 overall the last 2 weeks)
MTI 5* (1-2)
MTI 4.5* (8-6-1)
MTI 4* (5-5)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (2-7)
SBB 4* (11-7-1)
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (5-9)
2* (17-11)
PowerPlays
NFL 4* (8-5-1)
Gold Sheet
NFL Key Releases (18-18-3)Comment
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