Thursday 8-31-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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CFL
Dunkel

Week 11

Thursday, August 31

Ottawa @ Montreal

Game 351-352
August 31, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ottawa
113.273
Montreal
112.598
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ottawa
by 1
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montreal
by 1
51
Dunkel Pick:
Ottawa
(+1); Under

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CFL

Week 11

Ottawa (3-6-1) @ Montreal (3-6)— RedBlacks (-4.5) beat Montreal 24-19 at home in first meeting this season, despite giving up 517 yards of offense. Ottawa scored 37-31 points in winning its last two games, after a 1-6-1 start- they’re 1-3 on road, with only win at winless Hamilton. Under is 5-1-2 in their last eight games; they pushed the total the last two weeks. Montreal allowed 38-34 points in losing last two games; they’re 3-2 at home after last week’s home loss to Winnipeg. Under is 6-3 in Alouette games this season. RedBlacks won six of last seven series games; under is 7-3 in series games.

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Chris Jordan

As I told you the last two days, it is tough to go against the league's most dominating baseball team, but I liked the Arizona Diamondbacks to upset the Los Angeles Dodgers the last two nights, and if the best team in baseball is in a lull - then so be it. I'm taking the Snakes as my free play this afternoon, as the National League West rivals conclude their three-game series at Chase Field in Phoenix.

I'm not listing pitchers, as I believe Arizona's six-game win streak will provide enough momentum, just as I said two nights back in going against Rich Hill, and yesterday in carrying the flow over.

The Diamondbacks have not only won six straight, but they're 44-23 at home after last night's win over L.A. They're three games in front of the Colorado Rockies for the top wild-card spot, which is all they can hope for at this point, since their 17 games back of the Dodgers in the West.

The Snakes have the fifth-best home batting average (.273) in the bigs, and second-best runs scored (373) at home.

Take Arizona here, as it shocks L.A. again.

2* DIAMONDBACKS (straight action)

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Eric Schroeder

My free play for Thursday afternoon is on the Under in the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

IMPORTANT: As you know every single Run Line play and Total wager will automatically list the scheduled starting pitchers at the time of the wager, and I want you to be sure the following pitchers are the registered starters on your ticket when making your wager: Kent Maeda and Zack Greinke. If one or both of these pitchers is not going, this is a no-play.

After the Dodgers have suffered four straight losses, it's time they get a reprieve with superior pitching. Maeda is in after posting his best outing of the season last Friday, when he fired six innings of one-hit, one-run ball against the Milwaukee Brewers. Right-handed batters are struggling, hitting .130 off the righty since the All-Star break. The Snakes will struggle.

The already struggling Dodgers will have to face their former pitcher, and Greinke is in after picking up his 15th win of the year his last time out, against the San Francisco Giants last Friday, tying him with Clayton Kershaw for the Major League lead. Greinke has 182 strikeouts in 166.1 innings this season, and I like the right-hander to be at his best today.

This one stays low.

1* UNDER Dodgers-Diamondbacks (Maeda-Greinke)

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Jack Brayman

Now about this complimentary winner

My free play is off the night card, as I like the Baltimore Orioles to get things done over the Seattle Mariners.

Baltimore continues its ride after sweeping the American League East-leading Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park last weekend, and carrying the momentum into their next series and extending their win streak to seven games. Now sitting three games above .500, the Orioles are 1 1/2 games back from the second wild-card spot and they're 41-26 at home.

The momentum is real, and in hosting a division rival that has lost four in a row, things are getting better and better for the O's. Toronto is now in a 7-1 loss to the visiting Boston Red Sox on last night. The last place Jays closed a six-game homestand with a 1-5 record and has lost 10 of 12 overall.

Toronto won't be able to hang with Baltimore's offense, which has scored four or more runs in six of the seven games during the win streak.

I'm not listing pitchers. Just look for Baltimore to roll past Toronto in this one, while laying a cheap price doing so.

3* ORIOLES (straight action)

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Brad Diamond
Aug 31 '17, 7:30 PM
NCAA-F | Tulsa vs Oklahoma State
Play on: OVER 69½ -112

083117…CFB

Schedule: Tulsa @ Oklahoma State

Facility: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater

TV: FOX Sports 1, 7:30 PM Eastern

Current Las Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -18 (-17), OVER/Under 69-1/2 (74)

Most Recent Meeting: 2011 at Tulsa, Oklahoma State (-13-1/2) WON…59-33

Tulsa last defeated Oklahoma State in 1998, 35-20.

Background…

Oklahoma State shows off a super 38-8 victory over Colorado (-3) in the Alamo Bowl. However, they play in after losing to Oklahoma and Baylor in 2016, breaking the hearts of their faithful. It’s difficult to assess a Big-12 Championship but, the Pokes do catch the Sooners at home this season. Again, the Pokes offense is loaded led by QB Rudolph and wide out Washington (groin) both seniors and record-breaking players achieving awards. Also, we can’t forget RB Justin Hill who will surely dent the Hurricanes defense that was ranked #102 in yards allowed (466.6) in 2016. The Cowboys come off a super offensive season averaging 38.6 points per game and bring back a huge offensive line. Defensively, they return 56% of their starters and should look improved tonight with the Hurricanes starting only 29% of the 2016 offensive starters. Although Tulsa scored 45.7 points per game last year, they were sullied on the defensive end allowing 29.8 points per game. From the coaching standpoint, a huge edge goes to HC Mike Gundy of the Cowboys who has brought consistent success to Stillwater including, a national championship. Since 2010, State has garnered five ten wins seasons, seven top-ten finishes going back to 2008. By the way, the forecast is for super weather conditions come game time so, go OVER the total. Good Luck

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Jimmy Boyd
Aug 31 '17, 7:30 PM
NCAA-F | TULSA vs OKLAHOMA STATE
Play on: TULSA +18½ -110 at Bovada

Free Pick on Tulsa +

Tulsa continued it’s upward swing in year two under head coach Philip Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane had won just 5 combined games the two years prior to Montgomery’s arrival. He guided them to a 6-7 record and bowl bid in his first year on the job. Tulsa followed it with an impressive 10-3 campaign. That included a 55-10 blowout win over Central Michigan in their bowl matchup.

The Golden Hurricane bring back a respectable 13 starters. However, they do have to replace James Flanders (1,629 rushing yards, 18 TDs), starting quarterback Dane Evans (3,348 yards 32 TDs) and two 1,000-yard receivers.

What you have to keep in mind is that Montgomery has a history of putting up big offensive numbers regardless of the talent he has to work with. Back in his time with Baylor, it didn’t matter who was the starting quarterback or skill players. I fully expect sophomore QB Chad President (high recruit) to put up big numbers ins first year as a starter.

He’s also got more weapons to work with than you might think given what they lost. Backup running back D’Angelo Brewer rushed for 1,435 yards and 7 scores last year. Wide outs Keenon Johnson and Justin Hobbs are poised to take a big step and they are high on red-shirt freshman Josh Stewart. Not to mention they have a top level o-line with 4 starters coming back.

I also think you have to take into consideration that Oklahoma State had some struggles out of conference early last year. Most notably their 27-30 home loss to Central Michigan as a 20-point favorite. No question the Cowboys have some studs on offense, but the defense loses a lot from a unit that gave up 446 ypg last year, which was 92nd in the country. I think Oklahoma State is getting a little to much respect early, while the Golden Hurricane are flying under the radar.

Tulsa has gone 7-3 ATS in non-conference and 6-1 ATS as a road dog in the first two years under Montgomery. That includes a road game at Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma in his first year on the job. Golden Hurricanes kept it respectable in a 38-52 defeat as a 30-point road dog. I expect the same thing here. Take Tulsa!

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Brandon Lee
Aug 31 '17, 7:30 PM
NCAA-F | TULSA vs OKLAHOMA STATE
Play on: TULSA +17½ -110 at BMaker

10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Tulsa -17.5)

Just about every average joe I talk to likes Oklahoma State to cover this big spread at home on Thursday against Tulsa. That has me looking the other way and you can make a strong case for backing the Golden Hurricane in this one.

Tulsa does lose some skill players that put up big time numbers, including their starting quarterback. What people are forgetting is that head coach Philip Montgomery and his offensive scheme that turned Baylor into what it is today is why those guys put up the numbers they did. Keep in mind he took over a team that had gone 2-10 and averaged 24.7 ppg and in his first year on the job had them scoring 37.2 ppg while averaging nearly a 100 yards more of total offense.

The talent is there, including highly recruited sophomore QB Chad President. They get back a guy who rushed for more than 1,400 yards and got a guy back that caught 50 passes for 685 yards and 4 scores as a sophomore.

Oklahoma State is getting a ton of love going into the season, but how much can you really get excited about a Big 12 team. That conference is by the weakest of the Power 5. The offense has three studs and is going to score a lot, but for what it's worth they averaged fewer points and yards/game than Tulsa. Defensively they only return 5 starters and have to replace their top two tacklers. Give me the Golden Hurricane +17.5 and for those that like action, throw a little on the OVER 69!

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Jack Jones
Aug 31 '17, 1:10 PM
MLB | White Sox vs Twins
Play on: White Sox +137 at BMaker

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Chicago White Sox +137

I'm baffled by the fact that Bartolo Colon is nearly a -150 favorite today. The Twins have a lot to play for, but this is still a division rivalry, and the White Sox will be motivated to try and avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series.

Colon is clearly one of the worst starters in baseball. He is 6-10 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.634 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 3-5 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in nine home starts. There's no way he should ever be this kind of favorite.

Miguel Gonzalez has actually been very good here down the stretch for the White Sox. He is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in his last three starts, giving up just 3 earned runs in 20 innings to the Tigers, Rangers & Dodgers. He has given up just 3 earned runs in 13 innings for a 2.08 ERA in his last two starts against the Twins as well.

Minnesota is 10-19 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in home games in day games this season. Bet the White Sox Thursday.

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Mike Anthony

Tulsa vs. Oklahoma St
Play: Tulsa +18

The Cowboys enter the season as a team that many believe could win the Big 12 and challenge for a spot in the CFP. I’m not as trusting of their defense, or their performance in big games. Tulsa is a team the Pokes may overlook somewhat. But the Golden Hurricane can run the ball and play good defense. They covered 7 of their last 8 and they have a good system and coach. They wont win but they'll keep it close within the number.

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Robert Ferringo

Florida International at Central Florida
Play: Over 58

That is now three of four winning free football picks, and I am looking forward to dealing out more winners this week. I will have a 6-Unit College Football Play on Thursday night and then I am coming back with a 7-Unit College Football Play on Saturday as I play for a big weekend. As for this free play, this total has spiked three whole points this week for good reason. I think that Central Florida will be able to get to 40 points all by themselves in this one. Coach Scott Frost utilizes the same fast-paced offense that was a hallmark of the Oregon Ducks over the past decade. And with nine starters back on offense this team should improve significantly on the 28.8 points per game they managed last year. UCG hung 53 points on Florida International on the road last season (53-14), and I expect more of the same here in the opener. FIU has three-year starters at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and at both tackle spots. I can see them ringing up 20 points themselves, and I think that this one will be a shootout.

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Indian Cowboy

Florida International (+17) over Central Florida

We roll with Butch Davis and new-look Florida International as they face UCF in a game that featured these two teams last year and saw FIU get routed 14-53. Without a doubt, FIU remembers that game, and note that Butch Davis has a track record of a wealth of experience and he knows how to turn programs around fast (albeit, he has gotten in trouble with the NCAA in the past). But, per this game, you have a coach who has a team with revenge, returns 15 starters and 4-year starters at quarterback and running back, which speaks volumes to what this team could do. And, given the talent that UCF lost over the off-season as they only return back four starters on defense, this sets up nicely for Butch Davis to make an impact here for his new ball club. Scott Frost's team is very good for a team that did not do nearly any winning as he took them to 6 wins and a bowl game last year. However, having said that, this is a game that means far more to FIU than it does to UCF. We like FIU to hang tough here and to likely lose by around 10-14 points.

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Tony George

Ohio State (-20.5) over Indiana

Yes, this is not mid-season. Yes, almost 3 TDs is a huge number in Week 1 for anyone. Yes, I love taking dogs or laying short numbers only in Week 1. Yes Indiana gave OSU all they wanted last year and made a game of it at Ohio State until late in the game, but Indiana's fired head coach Kevin Wilson is now Ohio State's Offensive Coordinator. Do you think he wants to pull a can of whoop ass out with some bad feelings towards his ex-employer? I do, big time, and he has QB JT Barrett and company to do so. Barrett ran all over Indiana for 137 yards last year in a 21-point home win. Ohio State has 15 starters back and a lot of preseason hype, but it is warranted. They have a shut down defense (8 starters on D) that allowed just 15 PPG last year and wants to prove something out of the gate after getting crushed 31-0 by Clemson in the postseason last year. Meyer hasn't slept a full night since that debacle, I assure you! While the QB position is solid and the RB tandem of Weber and newcomer Dobbins will be effective behind one of the better OL's in the Big 10 with 4 starters back, I expect OSU to throw it around and improve their passing game, starting tonight. An entirely new coaching staff against one of the best teams in the country, even at home, will have Indiana back on their heels early despite the prowess of their stud QB Rich Lagow, who has a big arm and a couple of big time WRs. Not enough, gents, against a team who is a Top 5 team in the nation in my opinion and looking to make an opening day statement against a conference foe.

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Alan Harris

Ottawa (PK) over Montreal

The Ottawa Redblacks will look to extend their win streak to three games when they hit the road to take on the Alouettes at Percival-Molson Memorial Stadium in Montreal, QC, on Thursday night. Ottawa has posted a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games where they faced a team with a losing record and they have gone an excellent 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus a team from the East Division. They have also covered the number in nine of their last twelve games overall going back to the end of the 2016 season, and they are a light's out 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games. The Alouettes, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Thursday night as they have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five Week 11 games over the past five seasons and they are an awful 5-12 ATS in their last seventeen home games. Throw in the fact that Ottawa is 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings between the two teams and we'll take them at the pick as we have them getting the outright win in Montreal on Thursday evening.

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DAVE COKIN

BROWNS AT BEARS
PLAY: BROWNS +3

The final week of the NFL preseason is one in which most of the starters don’t see the field. It’s the last chance for coaching staffs to evaluate the depth charts and make the critical final decisions as to who makes the team and who gets cut.

But not surprisingly, the Cleveland Browns are not sticking to that script. The starters will see some action in this exhibition finale. I can’t imagine more than one quarter, but that’s still an edge. It indicates to me that head coach Hue Jackson would like to maintain the 3-0 momentum, as he tries to get away from the culture of losing that has surrounded this franchise for way too long.

The Bears will evidently not play any of their starters in this game. Mitchell Trubisky and Connor Shaw will split all the snaps, as they’re also not bothering with Mark Sanchez.

I can’t say for sure that the Browns are doing any particular game planning here. But if they’re utilizing the starters early in the game, it would also logically follow they are implementing some kind of game plan for at least that portion of the game.

I see that as an edge, and that’s what the whole idea is when it comes to handicapping these games that don’t count. So with that in mind, I’m looking at taking the points with Cleveland on Thursday night.