Monday 9-4-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[New York Knight]

Totals4U

Houston/Seattle over 8.5

[New York Knight]

Jim Feist


(977) MINNESOTA TWINS VS (978) TAMPA BAY RAYS.

Take: over the total.

Reason: Your free play for Monday, September 4, 2017 comes in baseball as Minnesota and the Rays clash in Tampa Bay. This is a good offensive park and Twins have been on an offensive tear. Minnesota is 12-2 over the total on astroturf. The Over is 12-3 in Alex Cobb's last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record. And when these teams clash the over is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings, 9-0 in this park. Play Minnesota/Tampa Bay Over the total.

[New York Knight]

Mike Wynn

Arizona w/Ray +135 Over LA Dodgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 98

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2017 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 DEADLY BLACK EAGLE 3/1

# 8 STEVIE MAC 2/1

# 7 HARD KNOCKS ROCK 10/1

DEADLY BLACK EAGLE looks strong to best this field. Has to be given consideration - I like the figures from the last competition. Looks to have a very good class edge based on the most recent company kept. With a solid 90 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. STEVIE MAC - She has to be given a chance given the quite good speed figures. Recent figures for the jockey - 25 win percent - make this filly stand out in this group. HARD KNOCKS ROCK - Conditioner has solid win rate (15 percent) at this distance and surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 6

Quinella / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7


Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 37 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:00P
FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 4, 2016. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 21 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 4 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * OLA ESMERALDA: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TORALEY'S TRICK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Ratin g. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7
OLA ESMERALDA
2/1

8/5
4
TORALEY'S TRICK
4/1

5/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Delaware Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:45pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating: 4

#7 ASSET ALLOCATION (ML=6/1)
#10 JUSTCALLME K L (ML=5/1)
#3 MASTER ZEUS (ML=10/1)


ASSET ALLOCATION - Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a strong effort on August 21st. Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this horse has the highest speed fig for the dist/surf. After the race aboard this animal on August 21st, the rider is going to be acquainted with the gelding much better. This gelding has plenty of ability on the turf. Could be long gone by the time they hit the stretch. Came home in fast time in the last race. A positive sign. A repeat of that last performance on August 21st where he garnered a speed fig of 92 looks lofty enough to win in this clash. JUSTCALLME K L - Coming off a fifth place finish at Laurel, some may pass this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has decent morning line odds today. MASTER ZEUS - Like the way this gelding's finish positions keep getting better. That's a sure sign of improving form. Lets try to beat the probable favorites with this gelding. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty good race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #15 GILES FAIR (ML=4/1), #6 MOTT (ML=9/2),

GILES FAIR - Tough to bet on any horse to turn things around if there is no wager value to taking the stab. Don't think this vulnerable equine will do much running in today's race. That last speed figure was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's class rating. MOTT - Didn't hit the board on June 29th at Delaware Park. Followed it up with another less than stellar try. This runner ran a common speed rating in the last race. He shouldn't improve and will likely lose in today's race running that number.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 ASSET ALLOCATION is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
7 with [3,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,7,10] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[3,7,10] with [3,7,10] with [3,7,9,10,12] with [3,7,9,10,12] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar

Del Mar - Race 1

$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 Cent Trifecta $2 Rolling Double / $1 Place Pick All / $1 Rolling Pick Three $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / 50 cent Pick 5


Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 89 • Purse: $60,000 • Post: 2:00P
FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Trailer. GENERAL INTEREST is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GENERAL INTEREST: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. POCKET JAX: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return o n investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). POWERFUL THIRST: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SHACKALOV: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CAMPAIGNER: Horse has r un a Good Race within the last 30 days.
6
GENERAL INTEREST
5/2

9/2
10
POCKET JAX
8/1

6/1
11
POWERFUL THIRST
3/1

7/1
3
SHACKALOV
9/2

10/1
1
CAMPAIGNER
4/1

10/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ferndale

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6800 Class Rating: 72

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 BRITE CRISTIAN 4/1

# 3 PLUM LUCKY 3/1

# 2 IN ABSOLUTE AWE 2/1

I think BRITE CRISTIAN is a very good choice. Has very good speed figures and has to be considered for a bet here. There is a formidable possibility of an increase in speed as this gelding changes blinkers (off) for the first time. The quick return to the track points to a strong effort this time out. PLUM LUCKY - Will more than likely be one of the early speedsters of the group going into the midpoint of the contest. This gelding ought to be considered just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone. IN ABSOLUTE AWE - Could beat this group of animals given the 81 speed figure put up in his last outing. Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of decent win percentage - 17 percent - at this distance & surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Valuline at Louisiana Downs

Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Louisiana Downs, Race 1 (Monday September 4, 2017)

MISS SID N SAY
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)

LAD-1 7f DIRT Six Horses
"A" CLM 12,500 F/M 3YUP $7,000
P# dd ex p3 t ML WP TVL

5 MISS SID N SAY 7/5 36% 9/5 Strong Favorite icon
3 NIKE GAL 4/1 36% 9/5 $
4 CARELESS WHISPER 8/1 17% 5/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #11 - Post: 6:09pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating: 4

#7 JAKOB'S TUNE (ML=8/1)
#5 BLYDE RIVER (ML=5/2)
#9 BRITISH BULLDOG (ML=6/1)


JAKOB'S TUNE - Sanchez was aboard this gelding in the last race and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Sanchez should have him moving solid on the turn. Have to forget about that last turf race. This gelding should do better hitting the main track in this race. Another way to assign class is earnings per start. This horse has the topmost in the field. I think he'll be close at the finish line. BLYDE RIVER - This is a fairly classic handicapping angle. Play a horse that finished runner up in a maiden race last time out but finished well ahead of the 3rd horse. This horse is in nice physical condition. Ended up second on August 5th. BRITISH BULLDOG - Frangella drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping data to believe this thoroughbred has a good chance at this level. Frangella brings him right back. I advocate you stick with this strong gelding.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SPRING EMPEROR (ML=7/2), #6 BYZANTINE GOLD (ML=5/1), #1 CHECK THIS OUT (ML=5/1),

SPRING EMPEROR - A bit of a lackluster effort when this gelding finished sixth. BYZANTINE GOLD - Most likely won't make much of an impact in today's event. CHECK THIS OUT - In this situation, this racer's inability to close ground in the last affair is a cause for concern.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 JAKOB'S TUNE is going to be the play if we are getting 2/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
7 with [5,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Saratoga

RACE #9 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 4:50 PM EASTERN POST
The Hopeful Stakes
7.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE I TWO YEAR OLDS STAKES $350,000.00 PURSE

#1 MOJOVATION
#2 OSKAR BLUES
#8 FREE DROP BILLY
#5 NATIONAL FLAG

One of the oldest and most prestigious races for 2-year-olds, the Hopeful had its inaugural edition in 1904, when it was won by the filly Tanya. The following year she went on to win the Belmont Stakes, the first of more than a dozen Hopeful winners who went on to triumph in the 1½ mile "Test of the Champion." Here in the 113th running of this Grade I stake test, #1 MOJOVATION demonstrated exceptional early speed in a "first asking" "POWER RUN WIN," 36 days ago here at "The Spa." Jockey John Velazquez was in his irons for that win, and is back this afternoon for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips." #2 OSKAR BLUES, a 10-1 BOMB, is the overall speed and pace profile leader, and comes off a "POWER RUN WIN" to break his respective maiden in his "first asking." He is a grandson of A.P. Indy, out of the Speightstown lineage, whose progeny have hit the board in 48% of more than 8, 800 combined lifetime starts to date. For your information folks, Speightstown also qualifies for my Three Star Sire list ... if you would like a description of the rigid rules that I "employ" to make this list, kindly send me an email ... and yes ... this list, and the "rules" are indeed free!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Recap - Week 10

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 10
-- Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Week 10
-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 10
-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 10
-- The 'over' went 2-1-1 in Week 9

Analysis

Favorites went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in Week 10 and the 'chalk' is now 7-1 both SU and ATS over the last two weeks. In the three non-divisional games, the West posted a 2-1 record over the East.

The scoreboard operator was working hard this week as the 'over' went 2-1-1 in Week 10 with five of eight teams scoring 30-plus points, and Saskatchewan lit it up with 54 points.

Team Betting Notes

-- Calgary (7-1-1) took over first place of the West Division on Saturday as it stifled Toronto 23-7 as a 10-point home favorite, improving to 4-0 at home this season. The Stampeders have won and covered five straight games and four of those decisions came by double digits. They've only allowed 169 points this season and that's the best scoring defense in the league.

-- Winnipeg (7-2) extended its winning streak to five games in Week 10 with a 34-31 road win over Montreal. The team is 4-1 ATS during this span and 7-2 overall versus the number, which is the best mark in the CFL. Including last week's win, the Blue Bombers are 3-1 this season with games decided by three points or less. The 'over' is 7-1.

-- After winning its first seven games of the season, Edmonton (7-2) suffered its second straight setback in Week 10 and the defense has contributed to the defeats. The unit was helpless in a 54-31 loss at Saskatchewan on Friday and helped the 'over' stay hot with a 5-1 run in the last six contests. This was the first home loss of the season for Edmonton.

-- British Columbia (5-5) is another team struggling in the West Divison, losers in three straight and four of their last five games. On Saturday, the club dropped a 31-24 road decision at Ottawa. The offense has been held to 49 points over the last three losses after averaging 31.4 points per game in their first seven games. The 'under' is on a 3-0-1 streak.

-- The week off helped Saskatchewan (4-4), who put up a season-high 54 points in its victory over Edmonton. The Roughriders cashed as road underdogs (+5.5) over the Lions and that victory was the first away win of the season for them. The club is 5-3 ATS overall.

-- Ottawa (3-6-1) showed some first for the second straight week as it defeated BC 31-24 as a short home favorite (-1). Despite putting up more than 30 points for the second straight week, total bettors saw the outcome push once again as it landed on the closing number of 55.

-- Defense continues to be a major issue for Montreal (3-6) lately and it showed on Thursday as the Alouettes lost a 34-31 home decision to Winnipeg. The team has allowed over 30 points in three of its last four games, which has led to a 1-3 record. Despite the loss, they only trail Toronto by one game in the East Division.

-- The Argonauts (4-6) haven't won back-to-back games all season and that trend continued on Saturday as the team was trounced 23-7 at Calgary. The Argos have gone 1-4 on the road this season and the 'under' is 3-2 in those games.

-- Hamilton (0-8) didn't win or lose in Week 10 as the club was on bye. The T-Cats will be returning on Sept. 4 versus Toronto.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

Monday, September 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EDMONTON (7 - 2) at CALGARY (7 - 1 - 1) - 9/4/2017, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 3-3 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 3-3 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (4 - 6) at HAMILTON (0 - 8) - 9/4/2017, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HAMILTON is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
HAMILTON is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HAMILTON is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HAMILTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 6-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 6-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 11

Trend Report

Monday, September 4

3:00 PM
EDMONTON vs. CALGARY
Edmonton is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Calgary is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Edmonton

6:30 PM
TORONTO vs. HAMILTON
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 10 games
Hamilton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 11

Monday, September 4

Edmonton @ Calgary

Game 355-356
September 4, 2017 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
108.590
Calgary
125.027
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 16 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
by 11
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
(-11); Over

Toronto @ Hamilton

Game 357-358
September 4, 2017 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
109.394
Hamilton
101.473
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 8
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 4 1/2
53
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-4 1/2); Under