Friday 9-8-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Larry Ness

Angels vs. Mariners
Pick: Mariners -120

Seattle has lost eight of 11 to fall back to four games out in the AL wild-card chase for the No. 2 spot. 73-67 Minnesota currently owns that spot and a big problem for 69-71 Seattle is that there are FIVE teams between them and the Twins, including tonight's opponent. the 72-68 LA Angels. Los Angeles visits Seattle just one game behind Minnesota, after splitting the first six contests of its current nine-game road trip.

Ricky Nolasco (6-12, 5.08 ERA) will get the ball for LA and the recently acquired Mike Leake (8-12, 4.14 ERA) takes the mound for Seattle. Nolasco owns an 'ugly 6-12 record but he's unbeaten over his last seven starts. Then again, it's not as if he's been "lights out," as he's 2-0 (team is 5-2) but his ERA is 5.11 in that stretch. He will be making his fifth start of the season against the Mariners after posting a 1-0 mark and 4.07 ERA in the first four (he's 2-4 with a 4.36 ERA in nine career starts vs the Mariners / teams are 4-5).

Mike Leake provided a huge boost to an injury-depleted pitching staff in his debut with Seattle, limiting Oakland to two runs over seven innings while striking out season high-tying seven in a 3-2 win last Friday. Leake was outstanding early on in 2017 for the Cardinals, as he had a 1.91 ERA through his first nine starts. However, he was ripped for 23 runs on 34 hits in his last four starts with St Louis and at the time of the trade, was 7-12 with 4.21 ERA. Leake has just one career start against the Angels (1-0, 1.13 ERA).

As noted, Nolasco is unbeaten in his last seven (Angels are 5-2) but overall, the Angels are 10-18 in all of his 2017 starts, giving him a minus-$715 moneyline mark (11th-worst among all starters). Time is running out for Seattle, Taking this series against the Angels is almost a must. A sweep would be nice but I'll settle for a win tonight. Take the Mariners.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Diamond
Sep 08 '17, 7:05 PM
MLB | Phillies vs Nationals
Play on: Nationals -1½ -140 at 5Dimes

Washington -1-1/2 runs over Philadelphia

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Bobby Conn
Sep 08 '17, 7:35 PM
MLB | Marlins vs Braves
Play on: Marlins -101 at 5Dimes

1* Free Play on Marlins -101

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Andre Ramirez
Sep 08 '17, 7:05 PM
MLB | Phillies vs Nationals
Play on: Nationals -1½ -140 at 5Dimes

MLB 75 DIME GAME

Max Scherzer has had a fantastic year, but it’s somewhat choppy lately. That doesn’t mean he’s lost any games though, he just hasn’t collected all that many wins. Over his last five starts, he’s won only one of them, coming along with four no-decisions. Dating back to his last 12 starts, he’s 5-0 with seven no-decisions. That’s a lot for a top notch pitcher like himself.

Still, on the year, his numbers are great. Coming into Friday’s contest, he is 13-5 with an ERA of 2.19. He has struck out 232 in 172. innings and has struck out nine or more in eight of his last 10 starts. Him and Kershaw have to be the only real contenders for the NL Cy Young.

The Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 games. Scherzer is 25-7 against National East Teams. I have the Nationals winning 5-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Ohio +3 over PURDUE

The Boilermakers have been the Big-10’s version of the Cleveland Browns for years and opened as a 26-point underdog last week at home to the Louisville Cardinals. That game was available nationwide to see on TV and the country watched in shock as the Boilermakers traded punches with Louisville and nearly pulled off the miraculous upset in a 35-28 loss. Purdue wasn’t getting lucky either. They came in with intensity and moved the ball with relative ease throughout. Those familiar with Purdue football also had to be in shock, as this edition looked nothing like editions of the recent past. Purdue looked very good and now they go from a 26-point dog to a 3-point favorite against a MAC team that is favored to win that conference. Even though the Boilermakers lost, they gave it absolutely everything they had in the opener and then some. We’re suggesting that they blew their load last week and will have little left or a lot less left than last week. This line is a big-time overreaction to what the Boilermakers did last week while the market pays no attention to Ohio’s 59-0 opening week win over Hampton.

The Bobcats were a 36-point favorite over Hampton last week and barely broke a sweat in covering easy. Ohio had the top ranked defense in the conference last season, allowed just 339 total yards and 22.6 points a game and they’ll get six returners back, including redshirt senior linebackers Quentin Poling and Chad Moore. QB Quinton Maxwell, who was forced into duty last year after the Bobcats first and second stringers were injured, is clearly the man in charge this year. There are no questions behind him, there's no other starter to split reps with, there's no side-discussions anymore. Maxwell finished the year with 1,252 yards passing, eight touchdowns and four interceptions but he lacked confidence. That’s no longer the case with Coach Frank Solich giving him all the confidence he needs. Maxwell looks confident and poised. Solich is now in his 12th year as Ohio’s coach. This is a well-coached team that excels at situational football and doesn't beat itself, but what we most love about taking points (or money) with Frank Solich’s charges is the way they keep coming for four quarters regardless of the score. The Boilermakers may have been a live dog last week but they are now giving away something to a proven underdog performer that plays efficiently in all three phases and typically avoids the game-changing mistake. We’re going to have to see a lot more from Purdue than one good game because there is a great chance that Louisville came unprepared for a fight last week. Ohio won’t make that same mistake.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Yankees -1½ +109 over TEXAS

Masahiro Tanaka’s 4.54 ERA is one of the most misleading and unluckiest ERA’s in the game that we’ll attempt to take advantage of because this is one of the best starters in baseball. Tanaka has a BB/K split of 36/158 in 155 innings. You would be hard-pressed to find better ratios. He also has an elite 51% groundball rate, which has been even better at 64% over his last three starts. With a 72% first-pitch strike rate, an elite groundball rate, elite control and an elite 3.42 xERA, Tanaka is exactly the type of pitcher we want to get behind at this hitter’s haven. His chances of dominating or having a solid outing are about 400% better than Martin Perez’s chances.

Perez has a WHIP of 1.58 so he’s always at the mercy of strand rate because there is always traffic. He has a dreadful BB/K split of 52/98 in 157 frames. When Perez pitches and has a good pitching line on paper, it is always because of a hit%/strands%-fueled mirage. He has 22 K’s over his last 40 innings so he’s going to put the ball in play and be at the mercy of both BABIP and strand rate. That’s not a good strategy against the Yanks. Other signs are ominous too with his poor xERA holding very steady for years. Lots and lots of bad innings is what Perez provides.

Detroit +199 over TORONTO

The Blue Jays have three wins in their past 10 games. They continue to make bad pitchers look good and mediocre one’s look like aces. They’ll now face a pitcher with unimpressive surface stats that is extremely under the radar. Buck Farmer receives a decent ranking by allowing three earned runs in 12 away innings (2.25 ERA), as the righthander has struck out 14 hitters on the road. On the year, Farmer has 28 K’s in 26 innings with a skill supported 13% swing and miss rate. He has also only issued eight walks, he has an 80% first-pitch strike rate and a 4.25 xERA, which is three runs lower than his actual ERA. The Blue Jays are a bottom-five offense vs. RHP (.721 OPS-26th).

Marcus Stroman left his last outing with a right elbow contusion so there’s that. Stroman is a very good pitcher but he’s not unbeatable by any stretch, especially at this time of year pitching for free-falling Jays. Stroman’s being hurt by high hr/f, the same issue that hurt him in 2016. He doesn’t give up many fly balls but when he does, many of them clear the fence. Another factor that keeps Stroman’s ERA in check is that he doesn’t walk many batters. He’s gotten his swing and miss rate up to league average but that’s not dominating. With a profile that features few walks and plenty of ground balls, Stroman’s numbers won’t suffer too much when fortune runs against him. At 26, so there’s still a bit of room for growth and finding a more consistent strikeout pitch would boost him into the top tier of AL starters. For now, though, he remains a solid mid-tier option but not one that is worth getting behind at a price like this because the Jays lose too often.

Tampa Bay +118 over BOSTON

Chris Archer has a BB/K split of 52/225 in 179 innings. He’s as likely to throw a gem as any pitcher in baseball. When Archer does blow-up, it is fueled by hit % and hr/f variances that can occur at any time to any pitcher, even Clayton Kershaw (see last night). Archer is the straight goods, whose skills this year are the best we've ever seen from him. There's plenty of profit in backing this ace when taking back a tag and that applies here. Chris Archer’s xERA of 3.01 since the beginning of August is the best xERA in the game over that span.

Our outlook for Drew Pomeranz seemed clear when we wrote "1H version (2.65 ERA) not coming back; heed xERA (4.15) for most likely outcome." So far we've nailed it, as Pomeranz has put up a pedestrian 4.45 xERA and 1.38 WHIP through 27 starts. Anything different beneath the surface? Not really, as the Ks are nice, but control issues persist. Pomeranz has walked 59 batters in 147 frames but he is not throwing enough strikes nor is he getting ahead in the count enough, which all but cements another subpar control season. Pomeranz has walked 15 batters over his past 27 innings. He continues to provide a strong K foundation, as he features two primary pitches: a four-seam fastball that generates a bunch of whiffs (52% of pitches; 12% swing and miss rate) with a complementary curveball (36%; 10%). However, since the beginning of August, Pomeranz’s skills are in big decline with an 8% swing and miss rate to go along with an xERA of 5.03 and an unsightly WHIP of 1.54. At this point, Pomeranz provides mediocre ratios with a healthy dose of strikeouts but that’s not enough to be priced in this range against one of MLB’s best.

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Bob Balfe

Red Sox -130

Tampa comes into this game not being able to hit left landed starters that well and late in the game will go with an almost flawless Boston Bullpen when at home. The Red Sox are a great home team and should win tonight behind the arm of Drew Pomeranz.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bruce Marshall

Giants at White Sox
Pick: Giants

The Chisox breathe a sigh of relief after sending for a police escort to get the Indians out of town. But nothing has gone too well for the Pale Hose for the past three months and not even a visit from the Giants is likely to offer much relief. Bruce Bochy has actually gotten some decent work lately from Matt Moore, who has four quality starts over the past month. Not ready to jump on the Lucas Giolito bandwagon for the White Sox.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OC Dooley

Ohio / Purdue Over 54

At the bottom of the analysis combined angles 22-0 to the OVER making this an excellent percentage wager. It was a week ago when Purdue was in the national spotlight (neutral field in Indianapolis) where they lost a 35-28 shootout against a Louisville attack directed by the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. Despite the high scoring affair the game stayed "below" a total (66) which was bloated. Since Purdue is rotating quarterbacks while Ohio is coming off a victory where they "shutout" the opposition we have MARKET VALUE with tonight's spot (opened at most offshore outlets up at 57 points) for which I am taking advantage. Purdue's current head coach is the same Jeff Brohm who used to be a quarterback as a professional. In all collegiate games coached by Brohm after a game where his defense "allowed" the opposition to gain on average at least 6.25 yards per play, he has gone 11-0 OVER the total with his offense in that situation putting up on average 44 points per pop. To add fuel to the fire in the pasy three years when off an ATS triumph, Purdue has gone 10-0 OVER the mark