Service Plays Thursday 9/14/17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

Thursday's Selection ...

For Thursday, Raise The Bar 1500♦ is the Houston Texans as the road dog at Cincinnati. At 7:00 am eastern time, the Texans are +6 point dogs. Note: I advise buying the half-point up on Houston if the line you get is +6 1/2 or +7 points.

One of these teams will - hopefully - get the bitter taste of Sunday's clunkers at home out of their mouth, as Houston allowed 10 sacks and turned the ball over 4 times in an ugly 29-7 loss to Jacksonville. In that game, starter Tom Savage was benched in favor of Deshaun Watson, and it will be Watson's rodeo at least to start this Thursday night in the Queen City.

The Bengals were just as bad, as they were blanked at home for the first time since 2001, and QB - Andy Dalton was picked off 4 times in the setback to Baltimore.

Obviously, not much to go on here in 2017 yet, but I can tell you that based on past meetings between these teams - and there are 8 of them between 2008 and 2016 - it is clear to me that no matter who is under center for the Texans, they simply have Cincinnati's number! Houston is 7-1 straight up, and 6-2 against the spread in those 8 meetings!

Dalton may rate the experience edge over Watson or Savage, but I like the value the points present in backing the underdog tonight on this short week.

Marvin Lewis certainly knows the clock is ticking louder after last week's blanking, and should his team start slowly tonight, the home crowd cannot be counted on to be patient. The pressure is on the Bengals!

Grab the points with Houston.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tommy Brunson

50 Dime - Houston-Cincinnati Under the Total

TODAY'S RELEASE

My Thursday release is a 50 Dime play on Houston-Cincinnati Under the total. At 7:45 am eastern time, the total for this game is 38-points.

TODAY'S ANALYSIS

Hard to make a case for this one landing Over the total, that is for sure.

Houston could only muster one touchdown on Sunday in their 29-7 loss at home against Jacksonville in a game that stayed Under the total. The Texans were so bad in that game that starter Tom Savage was benched in favor of rookie Deshaun Watson, and it sure looks like Watson is going to be the starter for the time being.

If you can believe it, Cincinnati's afternoon was even worse, as the Bengals were blanked in their home loss to Baltimore, as Cincy held Under the total for the third straight time dating back to last season, and the 8th time in their last 9 games overall.

This is the 7th season (playoffs included) in a row that these AFC teams are meeting, and each of the last 4 have held Under the posted price. In fact, 7 of the 9 series meetings dating back to 2005 between these clubs have held Under, so it is not a real stretch to see another meeting land Under the posted price.

Finally, the Bengals have played 4 straight Week Two games Under the total, and they are also 3-0-1 Under the total in their last 4 Thursday night contests.

Stick with the trends that say to go LOW.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Anthony Redd

Thursday's Play

75 Dime selection on the Cincinnati Bengals against the Houston Texans. As I release this play at 5:20 am Pacific in Vegas, the line on the Bengals is -6. If the line moves up and your line is -7 or -7 1/2, I recommend buying down the 1/2 point insurance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Benton

Benton's Banger

50 Dimer - New Mexico-Boise State UNDER the total

Line - 58 1/2 points

Time Released - As of 9:00 am eastern time

If this were a few years ago, no question I would be backing the Over in this Mountain West meeting, but after watching these teams play through a pair of games this season, I have to side with the Under in this meeting.

Don't get me wrong, this game is not going to see a combined 21-points, it will come close to creeping over the total, but my feeling is we will hold just Under the posted price when the dust clears tonight in Boise.

The Lobos have played both of their games this season Under the total, while the Broncos went Under in Week One, but did wind up way Over the total last week when they played overtime against Washington State in a game that saw 91-combined points.

The real problem tonight is New Mexico's offense. If it cant get going, it never will. The Wolves have been using their running game much more this season than they have in season's past. You and I know that running the football keeps the clock running, and limits the scoring chances.

The Broncos have gone from being an offensive juggernaut, to a defensive team. Last week's issues stemmed from Boise State turning over the pigskin, so if State keeps things on the ground to avoid the costly turnovers, then you have the "double-whammy" in play with the clock a-ticking away!

Make no mistake, this game will land near the total, but don't know if it can creep Over.

Look for Boise to get up big and then play it conservative.

Lobos and Broncos to land just Under the total on Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joey Juice

Thursday's Play

50 Dime play on the Cincinnati Bengals over the Houston Texans.

As I go live with my release at 9:30 am eastern time, the Bengals are -6 1/2 point favorites. I advise buying the half-point down on Cincy if you line happens to creep to -7 or -7 1/2 points.

Analysis

Houston and Cincinnati, both losers of their home openers, face off under the Thursday Night lights looking for a bounce back opportunity.

Last year Houston barely edged the Bengals at home, 12-10.

A look inside the number shows that Houston is lousy on the road, they are a dreaded 1-4 ATS last 5 road games, and more importantly, they stink on Thursday night, 0-7 ATS last 7 Thursday night games.

For the Bengals, we know they are a good week 2 team, they are 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 "Week 2" games, and they are also a damn good team in September
going 18-7-2 ATS last 27 in September.

Look, just like Houston, the Bengals were awful in Game 1, but they were missing defensive stoppers Vontez Burfict and Adam Jones who were both suspended. “Pac Man” will be back in this one!

Also I believe veteran quarterback Andy Dalton will bounce back against a defense that, lets face it, has to be second-guessing themselves after the way they played in week 1.

Bottom line is that Cincy has too many weapons for Houston.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

Thursday selection ...

My 40 Dime selection is the Texans and Bengals Under the total. The current total on this game at 12:35 pm eastern is 38 in Vegas and offshore. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.

ANALYSIS

I am going to force these two to show me they can reach this total.

Last week they combined for a total of 7 points as Cincy was shut out 20-0 and Houston blown out at home 29-7.

Now a week later you have a Texans defense that is taking on a struggling QB in Andy Dalton while the Bengals get a rookie QB with a bad offensive line.

It's has to be clear to head coach Bill O'Brien that if they want to win this game it has to be with his defense.

To the numbers:

Last 4 in this series have gone Under.

Bengals Under 20 of their last 28 on Vegas board going back to 2015.

Barring turnovers, special teams touchdowns or defensive touchdowns, this game has no shot at reaching it's posted total.

Last week I told you Kansas City and New England would fly over and tonight I am telling you Houston and Cincy stay Under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al DeMarco - GM

THURSDAY

5 DIME play on Boise State at home against New Mexico. The Broncos are -14 1/2 as of 1:00 pm pacific.

Boise State blew a 31-10 lead with eight minutes left in regulation in last Saturday's eventual 47-44 triple-overtime loss at Washington State, a game the Cougars were hellbent on seeking revenge having lost the prior year in similar fashion on the Broncos' blue turf. Yet I'd still rather lay a couple of touchdowns with Boise back home tonight on a short week than play New Mexico as the road dog.

Sure, last time here in 2015, the Lobos scored a tremendous 31-24 upset as a 30-point pup. But Boise State got revenge in last year's return engagement in Albuquerque, jumping out to a 42-7 lead at halftime en route to a 49-21 blowout.

Here's the problem with New Mexico tonight: playing at home in revenge against in-state rival New Mexico State last Saturday the Lobos lost 30-28 as a 7 1/2-point chalk. Do not be deceived by the final score, either, as they were down 25 points entering the fourth quarter. New Mexico's defense, a unit with eight first-year starters, allowed 500 yards - 401 of them through the air.

As if that wasn't enough, a freelance journalist dropped a bombshell yesterday with a report citing multiple unnamed sources that claims the university has hired an outside party to investigate allegations that head coach Bob Davie has mistreated players.

Again, a team with a pass defense ranked 112th in the nation after two games, and one off a huge loss with some potential off-field distractions is one that I'm not interested in backing on the road no matter the number of points I'm being enticed with.

Boise hasn't looked pretty in starting the season 1-1 as the Broncos needed to rally for a 24-13 win over Troy State in their home opener. And quarterback Brett Rypien (847 yards, seven TD passes), who was 21-for-28 for 391 yards and five scores in last year's road win, is probably on the sidelines for the start of tonight's game because of a concussion. But, that's not the end of the world because ex-Kansas starter Montell Cozart will get the nod instead and he's been outstanding so far, guiding the Broncos to the comeback win against Troy and then delivering a huge relief effort (12-for-20 passing, 161 yards; 14 carries, 72 yards rushing) versus Washington State. Plus, Boise's defense has certainly played better than New Mexico's so far with nine sacks, six takeaways and only 98 yards rushing allowed in two games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LineDriveSports

4* NewMexico +15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EXEC SPORTS GROUP

Cinn -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VSI

4 Unit Play. Take #103 New Mexico +14.5 over Boise St (7:00p.m., Thursday September 14)
A little confused on this number as Boise St will most likely be without QB Brett Rypien tonight and if New Mexico won last week this number would probably be around 12. The New Mexico Lobos made a heroic comeback last week against New Mexico St after trailing 30-5 entering the 4th quarter. A failed 2-point conversation was the difference last weekend but Thursday night I see these Lobos hanging around all game long. I know the Lobos have issues on who will start this game at QB but whoever starts will have chances to move the ball on the Broncos defense. Boise St beat New Mexico last year in Albuquerque 49-21 but this game will be much closer and lets throw in that the Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings against Boise St. Boise St is 1-5 ATs in their last 6 conference games and the Lobos are 11-4 ATS following a SU loss.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George

4 bengals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JM
The Champ Team


The Domination Baseball Picks for 9/14
Here are The "Domination" Picks for today:
Cubs


Note: All bets are made on the money line.

[batjag]

Executive Sportsline 200% Texans +6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive

200 - Texans

[Calidreaming]

C Jordan 1000 play on Boise St