Tuesday 9-12-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin
Sep 12 '17, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Marlins vs Phillies
Play on: Marlins -112 at 5Dimes

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Miami Marlins -112

I'm backing the Miami Marlins and prospect Dillon Peters tonight as a short road favorite over the Philadelphia Phillies. Peters has been impressive in his two starts, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while striking out 14 batters in 12 innings. One of those starts was against the Phillies on September 1st as he tossed 7 shutout innings with 8 strikeouts. Nick Pivetta has been one of the worst starters in baseball, going 5-10 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 22 starts. Pivetta is 1-1 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in three previous starts against the Marlins, all of which have come this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price
Sep 12 '17, 7:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Orioles vs Blue Jays
Play on: Orioles -121 at betonline

1* Free Pick on Orioles -121

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog

Marlins vs. Phillies
Pick: Phillies -109

Miami is on a 2-12 run and playing its fourth straight road contest. The players aren't all focused on baseball, as the team and the state of Florida are dealing with the destruction from Hurricane Irma. A rough September has all but eliminated the Marlins from the National League Wild Card race. The Marlins are 3-13 against the NL East and face a Philadelphia squad beginning a 10-game homestand. The Marlins are going with lefty Dillon Peters, who is winless while making his third Major League start, and the Phillies have won five straight against southpaws. Miami is 43-81 after a game where their bullpen blew a save and 10-31 away after scoring 8+ runs, making this a great spot for the home team.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Cincinnati +150 over ST. LOUIS

Robert Stephenson doesn’t have appealing surface stats (5.15 ERA) but he’s a starter high on our radar because his stock is so much lower than it should be. We’ve written about Stephenson in the past and nothing has changed. This is a starter with nasty stuff that can dominate any lineup as long as he’s throwing strikes. He has 69 K’s in 65 innings but the problem is the 43 walks he’s issued over that same trial. Stephenson has a 2.19/4.27 ERA/xERA over his last five starts but that xERA is all because of walks issued. He will walks guys here but if he stays within himself, like he’s been doing lately, he has the ability to work around walks because his stuff is so good. That’s a gamble we’re willing to make because the take-back is so good also.

Lance Lynn will be making his fourth start of the season against the Reds with all three of the previous starts resulting in weak outcomes. He has not thrown a **pure quality start over his last eight starts and has been extremely lucky over his last 13 starts, going 4-2 with a 1.87 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Lance Lynn’s xERA over those aforementioned 13 starts is 5.58, which incredibly is near four runs higher than his actual ERA over that span. We don’t know what’s going to happen here but we do know we’re getting tremendous value for our money so let’s hope it pays off like we expect it to.

**When we talk about quality starts, we’re not referring to the old Bill James method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — as it is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.

In pure quality starts, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria:

1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 5.2 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total quality start score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.

2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.

3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.

4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.

5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.

We can then give a starter a pure quality start score of 0 through for each start.

Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the pure-quality start scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. Again, Lance Lynn does not have a pure quality start over his last 13 starts.

The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time. This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors.

Atlanta +150 over WASHINGTON

Julio Teheran is pitching well on the road recently, with three of his last four resulting in a dominant start. One of his three starts against the Nationals this season has resulted in a gem too. Teheran has been great on the road, where in 13 starts he is 7-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. That’s the skinny on Teheran but he’s not our target here. Our target is the Nationals in a vulnerable spot with a vulnerable starter going.

After a four-game set with Philadelphia this past weekend and a day off yesterday, we would not be a bit surprised to see the Nationals and their 20-game lead in the NL East take a bit of a breather this series. You see, the Nationals have the Dodgers up next in Washington so fans, media and players are obviously anticipating that showdown, especially with the Dodgers in the midst of a remarkable slump that might be even more remarkable than their record before it. In any event, from an emotional or situational standpoint, this would be the perfect time to take back a big price against what could be a disinterested starter and host.

As fate would have it, it is Gio Gonzalez’s turn in the rotation and he’s been a fade target of ours for weeks now. This is by far one of the luckiest pitchers in the game and it’s about to blow up. Mark our words on this one and keep fading him, especially come playoff time when lucky pitchers almost always get exposed. Gonzalez’s swing and miss rate since the beginning of August is 4%. That’s Bartolo Colon territory. His 55% first-pitch strike rate this season is weak but Gonzalez hasn’t paid the price yet. His velocity has decreased every month and now his fastball is averaging 89.2 MPH. Somehow, someway, Gio Gonzalez has been able to post an ERA of 2.50 but hitters have caught on to his 4th consecutive year of fastball velocity decline. Concurrent 2nd half drops in swing and miss rate and first-pitch strike rate shows declining quality of his stuff. With an xERA of 4.29 this season and an xERA of 5.17 since the beginning of August, Gonzalez is ripe for regression. This is at best a league average pitcher that is defying logic to a high degree and when it inevitably blows up, we’ll be there to cash in. Hopefully it happens here.

Pittsburgh +105 over MILWAUKEE

Gerrit Cole has quietly regained his ace form but he’s certainly not priced like it here. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find four starters in the entire game that have been better than Cole since the All-Star break and he keeps getting better. Over his last 12 starts Cole is 5-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Over his last 33 frames, he has whiffed 36 batters with a skill supported 14% swing and miss rate. This season, Cole has walked a mere 47 batters in 181 innings, which is close to one walk every four innings. An emphasis on getting ahead early in the count with some filthy pitches increases his value here against a Brewers team that strikes out often. Throw in his elite batted ball profile of 50% grounders, 17% line-drives and 33% fly-balls and one gets a clear picture of just how good Cole is and has been for weeks. That he’s taking back anything against Brent Suter is a steal.

Brent Suter has walked six batters and struck out five over his past nine frames covering two starts and one relief appearance. Suter caught lightning in a bottle earlier this year before reality and set in and so he was subsequently related to bullpen duty. However, with the injury to Jimmy Nelson, Suter is now forced back into the rotation after a month in the ‘pen. His last start was on Aug 12 against the Reds in which he lasted five innings, walked four and allowed five earned runs. Dude threw 100 pitches in five frames. Brent Suter’s fastball averages 84.9 MPH. He has poor control and a 3.00 WHIP over his last 14 innings pitched, which is the equivalent of pitching with the bases loaded every inning. What makes Suter appealing is his shiny 3.55 ERA but don’t buy it. Instead, sell his 6.91 xERA as a starter. Wrong side favored.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Oakland at Boston
Play: Boston -170

The Oakland Athletics and the Boston Red Sox kick off a three-game set tonight at Fenway Park with first pitch slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. A pair of southpaws take the hill to start for both clubs as the Athletics send Sean Manaea (10-9, 4.33 ERA) to the mound to oppose Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez (4-5, 4.33).

The Boston Red Sox are still contending for the American League East title currently owning a three-game lead on rival New York. The A's are offering opportunities to their young core of players with their only motivation for the remainder of the 2017 campaign is playing the spoiler role. Oakland comes off a four-game weekend sweep of the team with the second best record in the AL, the Houston Astros.

Manaea has been effective in September allowing three or fewer runs in each turn. His last start saw the lefty work six scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Angels. Despite his recent success and a 3.04 ERA over his last four starts it has been a disappointing season for both the A's and Manaea. The lefty has pitched to his 4.33 ERA this season and evidence of this is his 4.49 xFIP.

The left is pitching to contact and has benefited from batted ball luck. He has a mere 10 strikeouts in his last six starts. Boston thrives on pitchers with the aim of getting swings and misses out of the K-zone, something that the Red Sox don't so much of, as they have one of the best strikeout to walk ratios in the American League.

Rodriguez is in line to record his first win since late May tonight when he squares off against an Oakland lineup that ranks dead last in offensive efficiency versus left-handed pitching. The A’s have a slash line of just .237/.311/.389 against southpaws as a team and that includes two of their most effective bats in this situation, Trevor Plouffe and Adam Rosales, who are both now playing for other teams. With the A's now being a right-handed heavy order Rodriguez benefits from the clubs lack of success against lefties and that right-handed hitters only have a slash line of .227/.293/.421 against him.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Sports

San Diego vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -177

The next two days figure to be an excellent opportunity for the Twins to square away their home record (currently two games under .500!) as they get to welcome in the lowly Padres for a late-season Interleague set. Really, given the sub-.500 home mark, it's pretty remarkable that the Twins are in the position they are in, which is leading the chase for the AL's second Wild Card. The problem for them this year, at least at home, has been giving up too many runs. But that shouldn't be an issue here against the Padres (even w/ the DH) as they are the lowest scoring team in all of baseball.

In order to compete, the Padres need quality starting pitching, but they don't figure to get it tonight from Travis Wood, who has a 5.03 ERA his L8 starts and now must deal w/ an AL lineup. Wood has been brutal in two of his last three starts, resulting in an 8.74 ERA and 2.560 WHIP during that timespan. The Padres are a bad road team (26-44 record) as they allow 5.5 runs per game and that's facing mostly NL lineups.

Kyle Gibson has been sharp of late for Minnesota w/ a 1.83 ERA his L3 starts, all of those resulting in wins for the team. Going back, Gibson has allowed 3 ER or fewer in eight consecutive starts. This should be one of his easiest ones of the year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

New York at Chicago
Play: Chicago

Catching the Cubs off three straight losses, the Mets are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The last time that the Cubs lost three straight, Quintana took the mound to snap the slide. He delivered, tossing six shutout innings. The Cubs got back on track with a 1-0 victory. Quintana was on the other side of a 1-0 game, in his lone start against the Mets. That was in 2016, before he was with the Cubs and he was up against Harvey. Now with the support of the Cubs and up against Gsellman, Quintana figures to get considerably more support. Gsellman has made seven road starts. In those games, he's got a dismal 8.75 ERA and 1.895 WHIP, averaging less than five innings per start. With the Mets, who don't hit southpaws well, just 13-40 (-27) against winning teams, I'm laying the wood with Quintana and the Cubs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joey Juice

The Phillies and Marlins get set to start a three-game series in Philly at Citizens Bank Park tonight. The Marlins are an awful 1-7 in their last eight, this after losing three of four in Atlanta over the weekend.

The Phillies, not much better, they have lost four of their last five.

A look inside the numbers reveals that Miami is 2-12 in their last 14 games overall, they are 1-6 in their last seven on the road, and they are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs right-handed pitchers.

In the other dugout, the Philadelphia Phillies are 5-0 in their last five games against lefties, and 4-0 in their last four at home against lefties.

While the Phillies have not been getting many W's lately, they seem to have Miami's number. but it has done just fine against Miami who has run out of steam as they were officially ousted from the NL East playoff picture when they went down to Atlanta in extra innings on Sunday.

Bottom line, the Marlins ship is sinking like the titanic. Need more numbers? They are 3-13 in their last 16 against vs the National League East, 1-5 in their last 6 when they are following a loss, and they are 1-7 in their last eight against starters with WHIPs over 1.30.

Miami has emotionally checked out of the season, making this the perfect opportunity for the Phillies to grab a home win.

1* PHILADELPHIA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Rangers -120

Both pitchers have the same first initial and their last names sound the same and truth be told neither have been any good this year. Seattle starter Marco Gonzales has given up on average about 2 hits per inning this year. That won’t win too many games. The Rangers hit left handers well and should win this one at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tommy Brunson

For Tuesday, play the Twins on the Run Line to dispose of the visiting Padres.

The Padres saw their 3-game winning streak halted on Sunday, while the Twins enter tonight with losses in their last pair of games at Kansas City, as Minnesota was outscored 16-5 over the final 2 games.

Minny still has a slim hold of the second wild card spot, but if they wish to keep a hold of that spot, they will need to win tonight's game.

Chances of that happening appear good, as Kyle Gibson has found another gear for Paul Molitor's club, as he enters this start on a 3-0 roll his last 4 starts, allowing just 5 earned runs in 26-plus innings.

That solid pitching should bode well against the Padres and starter Travis Wood who was just torched by the St. Louis Cardinals in his last start, and sports an over 7 ERA for his last 3 starts.

The time is right for the Twins to find themselves back on the plus side of things, and I will back them tonight on the Run Line.

4* MINNESOTA -1.5