Wednesday 9-20-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doug Upstone
Sep 20 '17, 9:10 PM
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Padres
Play on: Diamondbacks -140 at betonline

Arizona has not been hitting much of late and look to avoid sweep at San Diego. The numbers suggest they will take one game as NL road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like the D-Backs, hitting .255 or less, against a decent NL starting pitcher (ERA range of 3.70 to 4.20), with an on-base percentage of .285 or worse over their last five games, are 34-8, 81.0%, since 2013.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels
Sep 20 '17, 7:10 PM
MLB | Cardinals vs Reds
Play on: Cardinals -1½ -119 at BMaker

Free Play on Cardinals -1½ -119

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn
Sep 20 '17, 7:05 PM
MLB | MIL vs PIT
Play on: UNDER 8½ -103

1* Free Play on Brewers/Pirates under 8½ -103

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin
Sep 20 '17, 10:10 PM
MLB | Rangers vs Mariners
Play on: Rangers +135 at betonline

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Texas Rangers +135

The Seattle Mariners don't look too interested right now after they've basically been eliminated from postseason contention after going 0-4 in their last four games overall. I think the Rangers have shown some fight here down the stretch and will continue to do so tonight. Plus, the Rangers have the advantage on the mound with Andrew Cashner, who is 9-10 with a 3.40 ERA in 25 starts this season. Felix Hernandez has gone 5-4 with a 4.19 ERA in 14 starts for the Mariners, and 0-0 with a 5.52 ERA in his last three. Cashner has a 3.95 ERA in seven previous starts against the Mariners. The Rangers are 4-0 in Cashner's last four road starts. The Mariners are 0-7 in their last seven after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd
Sep 20 '17, 3:45 PM in 33m
MLB | Rockies vs Giants
Play on: Giants +113 at GTBets

Free Pick on Giants +

I like the value here with San Francisco as a division home dog against the Rockies on Wednesday. The Giants have been out of the playoff race for some time and that makes it easier to come out and play hard to close out the season. They seem to be enjoying playing spoiler against their division foes and who can blame them. After defeating the Dbacks 7-2 on Sunday, they came back from their day off and edged the Rockies 4-3.

Colorado is a team I think is starting to feel the pressure of the playoff race. The Rockies once comfortable lead in the Wild Card race is down to just 1-game over the Brewers and 3.5 ahead of the Cardinals.

Rockies starter Tyler Chatwood comes in having pitched well of late, but is just 6-16 against the money line in his last 22 starts after allowing 2 or less runs in 2 straight outings. Colorado is also just 1-4 in Chatwoods last 5 road starts and a mere 3-8 as a team in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take San Francisco!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays
Sep 20 '17, 7:35 PM
MLB | Nationals vs Braves
Play on: Nationals -148 at 5Dimes

1* Free Play on Nationals -148

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty was waiting on the Astros on Tuesday and likes the Mariners on Wednesday. The deficit is 795 sirignanos.

[New York Knight]

Cubs 7-0 last 7 overall, 11-1 last 12 interleague games & 6-1 in Lester's last 7 road starts.

Rays 1-7 last 8 vs lefties.


CHC -120 / TB +110

[New York Knight]

UNDER 6-0 Royals' last 6 after loss.

UNDER 7-1 Jays' last 8 & 4-0 in Anderson's 4 career starts w/ Jays.

Under 7-1 last 8 meetings.


Total: 9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Daily Line Drive: Wednesday's picks, betting odds and analysis

Double-Play Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (+128, 7.5)

It’s a battle of National League West rivals when the Diamondbacks visit the Padres to close out a three-game set and surprisingly, it’s the Padres who will be going for the sweep Wednesday night in San Diego.

Arizona has dropped three straight on the road, including the first two of this series, after winning 11 of its previous 12 road games. The problem has been that the D-Backs' offense has dried up a bit, scoring just 2.0 runs per game during their current three-game mini slide.

Luckily for the D-backs, chances are they won’t need to score too many runs tonight as they send Robbie Ray to the hill.

There haven’t been too many starters better than Ray this season. The lefty is 14-5 with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, but it’s his road splits that are a little ridiculous. Away from Chase Field Ray is 8-1 with a 1.33 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP.

We don’t mean to gush, but the D-backs southpaw has actually been getting better as the season has gone on. In his last five starts he is 5-0 with 1.39 ERA, a 0.77 WHIP while racking up 55 strikeouts.

Dinelson Lamet toes the rubber for the Padres and, while he has been San Diego’s best starter, he gets absolutely no run support and in his lone career start against the Diamondbacks (back on June 6) he allowed nine runs (seven earned) on five hits and five walks in 3.0 innings pitched.

The skid ends here.

Pick: Diamondbacks -138

Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels (+110, 8.5)

The Indians and Angels go to battle Wednesday night in Game 2 of their three-game series. Cleveland took the opener 6-3 last night and look to keep their momentum rolling tonight.

Something weird is happening right now between the oddsmakers and this historic Cleveland Indians team. They were winners for us yesterday and when we locked in our pick in the morning they were actually slight underdogs with red-hot Mike Clevinger on the mound. Today they are facing "Shitty" Nolasco and they are only slight -120 favorites.

Something isn't adding up. The Angels have certainly exceeded expectations in 2017, but they aren't in the same stratosphere as the Indians who have now won 25 of their last 26 games overall and 20 of their last 22 road games, including 12 in a row away from home.

Josh Tomlin gets the ball for the Tribe today. He's been very good with three straight team wins since returning from the disabled list with his hamstring injury. In his last two starts on the road, Tomlin has allowed only one run (0.93 ERA) and six hits over 9.2 innings of work.

Nolasco, as mentioned above, gets the start for the Angels tonight. He has team losses in six of his last seven starts against the Indians, the Angels have dropped three of his last four overall, and his team win/loss is only 10-20 on the season (5-10 at home). Nolasco has allowed a whopping 34 home runs this season and gets paid a lot of money to be "Shitty".

As mentioned above, this is a bit of a blind play on the best team in baseball - but it's also worth noting that they have won nine consecutive meetings with the Angels.

Pick: Indians -120

Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 149-137-15

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Luke Weaver, St. Louis Cardinals (6-1, 1.89 ERA, $504)

The Cardinals may be falling out the National League playoff picture, but they can be excited about the bright future ahead of young right-hander Luke Weaver.

Since Weaver has taken a regular spot in the Cardinals rotation back on Aug. 23, the 24-year-old has been straight dealing. He is 5-0 in his last five starts with a 1.15 ERA, a WHIP of 0.89 and has struck out 42 batters, while walking just four. Oh, he also has a current scoreless innings streak of 15.

He’ll look to extend that streak when the Cardinals visit the Reds as -189 favorites.

Slumping: Wade Miley, Baltimore Orioles (8-13, 5.32 ERA, $3)

There have definitely been some bumps in the road during Miley’s first full season with the Orioles and the bumps have been more pronounced of late.

Miley is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in his last three starts, which includes a dreadful performance in his last outing against the Yankees, where he allowed six runs on six hits on just 0.1 innings of work.

Miley will try to turn things around when the Orioles host the Red Sox as +170 underdogs.

Wednesday's Top Trends

* The San Francisco Giants are 1-9 in Matt Moore's last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record. +110 today vs. Rockies (82-68).
* The Chicago Cubs are 7-0 in their last 7 overall and 11-1 in their last 12 interleague games. -125 today @ Rays.
* The Washington Nationals are 0-9 in Gio Gonzalez's last nine road starts vs. Atlanta. -150 today @ Braves.
* The Cleveland Indians have won 25 of their last 26 games overall. -120 today @ Angels.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There shouldn't be any precipitation across Major League Baseball today.

There will be a stiff wind blowing in from left field this afternoon at Yankee Stadium where the Yanks will be taking on the Twins. The total is currently set at 8.5.

AT&T Park in San Francisco will feature it's usual 15 mile per hour wind blowing out to center field tonight. The total for tonight's game between the Rockies and Giants has been set at 8.

Ump Of The Day

Gary Cederstrom will be calling balls and strikes this afternoon in The Bronx and that is good news for Yankees' backers. Cederstrom is one of baseball's top "homer" umpires at 20-9 (69 percent) thus far for the 2017 season. Dating back to last season the home team has won 43 of his last 58 games behind the dish (74.1 percent).

The Yankees are big -300 favorites over Bartolo Colon and the Twins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE COKIN

INDIANS AT ANGELS
PLAY: ANGELS +107

Josh Tomlin and Ricky Nolasco match up tonight in the second game of the three game set between the Indians and Angels.

This is a virtual must win game for the Halos. A loss here and there’s a very good likelihood of a wrong way sweep at the hands of the relentless Tribe. The Angels have to travel to Houston this weekend, so with the daunting slate they’re facing, they really need this game tonight.

Tomlin is no cinch to hit these days, just like everyone else in the Cleveland rotation. But in what is clearly a small sample, some of the key Angels have enjoyed quite a bit of success against the Indians righty.

The gamble here, in addition to trying ti beat this Indians express, is that Ricky Nolasco isn’t exactly Mr. Reliable for the Halos. But I’m willing to take a small shot with the home team tonight in what I feel is their most important game of the entire season to this point. I’ll risk no more than a half unit on this, but my play will be the Angels as small home dogs tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

3G-Sports

Arizona vs. San Diego
Play: Arizona -138

The Diamondbacks are coming off of a test loss where Patrick Corbin gave up four runs on three hits. The Dbacks also stranded the bases loaded late in the game. ARZ has lost 3 straight, but I expect them to bounce back and get the win here on Wins-day night behind Robbie Ray. He is opposed by Lamet and I expect the DBacks to hit him. We like the Diamondbacks to bounce back in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog

Colorado @ San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco +118

San Francisco won its second straight with a 4-3 win over the Rockies on Monday night while Colorado lost its second in a row. The Rockies now have lost their last four meetings at San Francisco and five of the last seven meetings overall. Colorado is 1-4 in Tyler Chatwood's last five road starts and the Rockies have lost 91 of their last 134 road games against left-handed starters dating to last season. Matt Moore had a rough outing against the Dodgers last Wednesday, but before that had given up more than two runs just once in six appearances. Colorado still is barely above .500 on the road and the Giants are playing the spoiler role.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Rogers

Brewers vs. Pirates
Play: Brewers -110

The Pirates have been shut out in each of the last two games at home against the Brewers as Pittsburgh tries to avoid the sweep tonight. Steven Brault tossed six shutout innings the last time he faced the Brewers earlier this month, which was coincidentally the last victory Pittsburgh registered prior to this seven-game losing streak. Aaron Wilkerson makes his ML debut for Milwaukee tonight, coming off an 11-4 record and 3.16 ERA at Double-A Biloxi. I'll back the Brewers to pull off the sweep of the Pirates.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +136 over MIAMI

Based on the starters alone, this game offers up the most value on the board. That doesn’t mean that New York will emerge victorious but it’s a bet that has to be made because these two starters are not in the same class. The price suggests that Jose Urena is the superior starter but nothing could be further from the truth.

Urena’s strikeout to walk ratio isn’t even 2-1. He’s walked 56 batters while whiffing 104 in 152 innings. It’s a rare day when Urena makes it past the sixth inning and or even finishes the sixth inning. At first glance, it would appear that he has made substantial gains vs. LHB in 2017, but that's not the case. The difference is largely due to a fortunate 22% hit rate. His command vs. LHB has been poor but once again, he has benefitted greatly from a combination of hit %, strand % and hr/f luck, as evidenced by the wide disparity between ERA and xERA. Despite the vastly improved surface numbers (3.68 ERA), Urena is pretty much the same pitcher he has been. Unless he can discover a way to generate more strikeouts, refine his command, and make some strides against left-handed batters, his ERA figures to eventually move toward his 5.98 xERA. This is a grossly overpriced pitcher with little upside.

Rafael Montero is a rock-solid pitcher with filthy stuff but his surface stats say otherwise. Montero is a high-upside starter who has struggled to produce any value in 2017 because of poor fortune. Montero has posted a sub-4 xERA in August and September along with a decent skill foundation: 9.2 K’s/9, 3.9 BB’s/9, 47% grounders, 14% swing and miss rate and 67% first-pitch strike rate. Montero has 106 K’s in 106 frames. His 59 walks look troublesome but we’ll refer back to his outstanding 67% first-pitch strike rate and not put much emphasis on it. What that tells us is that he’s getting ahead in the count and then he tries to nibble or throw the perfect pitch to get the batter out. Many young pitchers fall victim to that strategy but Montero‘s control is too good to be walking that many hitters so a dramatic decrease in walks is on the horizon. Montero will enter 2018 as an intriguing speculative target that will be high on our radar, just like he is now when offering up such tremendous value.

ATLANTA +136 over Washington

Prior to 2017, Lucas Sims’ biggest problem was control. This year, in both Triple-A and the majors, he has made significant improvement in that area, backed by an elite first-pitch strike rate. However, at least in the majors, that reduction in walks has come with a reduction in strikeouts that has basically negated any change in his overall skill level—in fact, if you go by xERA, it has been a step backward but that doesn't mean he can't take the control growth and find a way to bring back the strikeouts and lower his xERA. The 23-year-old Sims has upside, as evidenced by his strong prospect rating. The scouting reports touted his 96 mph fastball and "great 12-6 curve that ranks among the best in the organization," but added that "his changeup is inconsistent," which is why there has been much speculation that he may fair better as a reliever. After seven starts, the Braves moved him to the pen for what was suppose to be the remainder of 2017 but Mike Foltynewicz has come up lame so Sims moves back into the rotation. This kid has talent and now gets another shot but we’re not counting on him for anything. We’ve been fading Gio Gonzalez for a few weeks now and we’re not letting up.

Gonzalez is 14-7 with a 2.68 ERA. He has put up some tremendous surface stats this season but they do not have the support of his underlying numbers. The usual suspects of HR%, BABIP and strand rate are often the difference between good surface stats and weak ones. That’s not unusual as guys like James Shields, Marco Estrada, Dan Haren and Bartolo Colon to name a few out-pitched their peripherals for years. You can now add Gio Gonzalez to that list. Gonzalez brings his 83.7% strand rate to this game. That’s way above league average. He also brings his .254 BABIP, which is way below the league average of .307. Gonzalez is on his way to a fourth consecutive year of velocity decline, as his fastball now averages 88.7 MPH. Gonzalez’s 171 K’s in 185 frames is not supported by his 9% swing and miss rate and as soon as everything inevitably starts to even out, the opposition will put up crooked innings against Gonzalez. He was tagged for five runs in five frames in his last start so the wheels coming off arte already in motion. The fade continues here.