Thursday 9-21-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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JEFF BENTON

Your Thursday freebie is Under the total in your late night meeting between Texas and Seattle at Safeco Field.

It will be Cole Hamels and James Paxton to the mound. Hamels did defeat Seattle back on September 11th when he worked 6 innings of 3 run ball with 7 batters fanned, as the southpaw improved to 6-3 for his career against the M's.

Paxton is easing his way back into the rotation after missing pretty much all of the summer with a pectoral strain. While it is doubtful he will be working deep into the Emerald City night, I do think he can give his team a solid 5 frames of work this Thursday night.

Tuesday's series opener landed Under the total, while last night's game landed Over the posted price. Last night's Over snapped a streak of 3 straight Unders for the Rangers, while it moved the Mariners home Under mark to 6-2 their last 8 games in the pacific northwest.

Series finale to land Under the total with Hamels and Paxton setting the tone.

3* TEXAS-SEATTLE UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE LUNDIN
MLB | Sep 21, 2017
Rockies vs. Padres
Rockies-124

The Colorado Rockies took two of three against the Padres over the weekend, but they've opened this week with back-to-back losses to the Giants. I like the Rockies to bounce back with a win here as they fight to hold on the second National League wild-card spot with the Brewers right on their heels.
Tonight Tyler Anderson (5-5, 5.28 ERA) will take the ball for Colorado. The 27 year old left-hander held the Padres scoreless and just two hits through six innings of a 16-0 victory last week. He's 2-0 in 10 innings of scoreless ball since returning from the disabled list Sept. 10.
The Padres turn to Clayton Richard (7-14, 4.82 ERA) who was charged with four runs on seven hits and three walks in six innings against the Rockies last week. He's 1-2 with a 9.98 ERA in three starts against Colorado this year.
The Rockies are 7-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings.
My free pick is on the Colorado Rockies.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

49ers +2.5
S. Florida -19.5

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MLB Daily Line Drive: Thursday's picks, betting odds and analysis

There are 11 games on the MLB schedule today, including the Cardinals who continue their chase for a Wildcard spot with Carlos "The Clown" Martinez on the hill against the Reds.

Double-Play Picks

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds (+140, 8.5)

The Reds and Cardinals will wrap up their three-game divisional series tonight at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The Cards have won the first two games and will be looking for a very important sweep Thursday night.

The Cardinals sit just 2.5-games behind the struggling Rockies for the second National League Wildcard spot and every win, obviously, is critical this time of year.

St. Louis has won six of the last seven meetings with the Reds and will send Carlos "The Clown" Martinez (and his purple hair) to the mound tonight. Martinez was beat up by the Cubs in his last start for seven runs over 5.1 innings of work and he has taken some criticism from the spoiled St. Louis media and fan base. He will be out to prove the critics wrong tonight.

Martinez was in good form heading into his last outing with an ERA of 1.95 and a WHIP of 1.1205 in his four starts prior to Friday's disaster at Wrigley Field. The Cardinals have won five of his seven career starts against the Reds and and tonight presents a perfect bounce-back spot for the hard-throwing righty.

The Reds will counter with veteran Homer Bailey. Great American Ball Park is not an easy place to pitch, and Baily has really struggled at home this season with a personal win/loss record of 1-5, an ERA of 7.78, and a WHIP of 1.68. His last start against the Cardinals was back on Aug 6 when he allowed 10 earned runs in just 3.1 innings of work, in an eventual 13-4 loss for Cincinnati.

The opportunity is there for the Cards to get right back into this National League Wildcard race, and a win tonight would help immensely.

Pick: Cardinals -150

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (+125)

The Nationals have clinched their third National League East title in the last four seasons and are still in the running for the top overall spot in the NL as they go for a three-game sweep of the Braves on Thursday night in Atlanta.

The Nationals took the first two games by a combined score 11-5 and will hand the ball to Tanner Roark in hopes of completing the sweep and inching closer to the Dodgers, who sit at the top of the NL by 3.5-games.

It’s been an up-and-down season for Roark, who is 13-9 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, but the right-hander has turned it up lately. The Nationals have won four of his past five starts, where he has pitched to a 3.23 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP, while racking up 39 strikeouts to just four walks.

The Nationals have also knocked off five road wins in a row, outscoring their opponents by a score of 28-9 in the process and they try to keep that going when they face Braves’ knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.

The 42-year-old has actually been solid for most of his first season in Atlanta, going 9-10 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.43 ERA, however Dickey has hit a bit of a rough patch. Dickey is 0-2 with a 10.05 ERA and a 2.09 WHIP with as many strikeouts as walks.

This is good value for a team that still has something to play for.

Pick: Nationals -135

Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 151-137-15

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Parker Bridwell, Los Angeles Angels (8-2, 3.71 ERA, $1644)

Parker Bridwell is going to be the ace of this Angels' pitching staff for a very long time. The young right-hander has made 17 career starts at the major league level and the Angels have won 15 of those games.

Bridwell is the runaway leader in our Starter Money statistic at $1644, with Drew Pomeranz in second place but very far behind at $1049.

The rookie starter draws a tough assignment this afternoon as a +120 home dog against Danny Salazar and the red-hot Cleveland Indians.

Slumping: Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers (8-12, 6.18 ERA, $-478)

Right-hander Jordan Zimmermann has been bad all season for the Tigers who are in desperate need of a full rebuild - and that rebuild should start will dumping Zimmermann off their pitching staff.

Over Zimmermann's last five starts he is 1-3 with an ERA of 11.03 and a WHIP of 2.239. He makes $18 million this season and is scheduled to make $24 million in 2018. It doesn't really seem worth it, does it?

Zimmermann and the Tigers are +110 underdogs at home against Adalberto Mejia and the Twins tonight.

Thursday's Top Trends

* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 5-20 in their last 25 overall. OFF.
* The Cleveland Indians have won 26 of their last 27 games overall. -138 today @ Angels.
* The Washington Nationals are 39-16 in the last 55 meetings with the Atlanta Braves -137 today @ ATL.
* The Chicago Cubs are 17-4 in their last 21 road games vs. a right-handed starter. -128 today @ Brewers (Davies).

Weather To Keep An Eye On

Precipitation should not be an issue for any of today's games on the MLB schedule. There are thunderstorms expected late tonight in Detroit, but the game between the Twins and Tigers should be long over by the time that system rolls through.

There is a 10-12 mile per hour wind expected this afternoon in Anaheim where the Indians will be taking on the Angels. The total opened at 8 and has been bumped up slightly to 8.5.

There will be a 9-12 mile per hour wind blowing in from the Western Metal Supply Company in left field at Petco park in San Diego tonight. The total for tonight's game between the Padres and Rockies in currently listed at 8.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

SAN FRANCISCO +120 over L.A. Rams

The Rams scored 12 points in about two minutes in Week 1 and went on to record a resonating 46-9 victory in that game while the 49ers are 0-2 with 12 points scored in two games. This market loves offense and the market perception here is that the 49ers have none. We shall see about that but what we do know is that the Los Angeles Rams have played two home games against two weak opponents and cannot be road chalk because of one big offensive output against the bumbling Colts. Jared Goff had all day to throw against Indy but things were different for him last week and they’ll be different for him here. Goff only managed 224 yards versus the Redskins last week in a loss and tossed just one touchdown. The 49ers D-line put great pressure on both Russell Wilson and Cam Newton and take a step down in class here against Jared Goff. Also, take note that the Rams defensive line was blown off the ball last week against an average Washington offensive line.

The Rams will now go on the road with their rookie QB for the first time this season with only three full days to prepare. Forget X’s and O’s for a sec and just consider how difficult it is to not only win on the road in this league but to do so being a weak team on short preparation. Wins and losses are the bottom line in any sport and in that regard, an 0-2 49ers’ squad that won two lousy games last year and five lousy games in 2015 is very difficult for this market to get behind. The Rams have a blowout victory already, which holds much more weight in this market than SF’s two losses in two games. That provides us with this opportunity.

While the Rams were facing Indianapolis and Washington, the 49ers had to deal with Seattle and Carolina’s defenses so it should come as no surprise that points for their offense were at a premium. After facing those two great defenses, a battle tested Brian Hoyer figures to be a lot more comfortable this week and chances are he’ll get a lot more time to make some plays. Brian Hoyer hasn't thrown a touchdown yet and the 49ers as a team still haven't found the end zone. Hoyer comes off a 99-yard effort in Seattle that was predictable facing a great defense in their stadium but Hoyer opened with 193 yards at home versus the Panthers. The Rams also have a weapon of their own this week that can match Todd Gurley and might be the best offensive weapon in this game. Carlos Hyde is healthy and comes off a 124-yard effort over the Seahawks on only 15 carries. He's adding a few receptions each week and could very easily go off for a monster game here.

With losses piling up over the past three seasons and two more in two games this year, the books have Kyle Shanahan’s squad as home dogs here but Shanahan’s freewheeling, keep-it-real manner is very good medicine. The 49ers are strong on both lines and claim to have had good weeks of practice and a good camp before their opener. They did not look overwhelmed in two difficult games and the message here is more about belief in each other than a canon of maxims. The Rams favored on the road is incorrect. 49ers outright get this call.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Temple +19½ over USF

The Bulls are a popular favorite to win The American Athletic Conference in 2017. In addition, some pundits have been bold enough to pencil the Bulls into a New Year's Six Bowl Appearance as the Group of Five Champion Qualifier. These superlatives create a glorified public perception of this program. Don’t get us wrong, as the Bulls are indeed a quality team (offensively) but once again we’re after inflated points and trust we’re getting some here.

The Bulls enter at 3-0, which also has market influence. There is no question that USF has some exceptional talent in its ranks, most notably perhaps one of the game's best players overall in quarterback Quinton Flowers. So far, Flowers has been nothing short of spectacular in his first three outings in 2017. The question mark surrounding this team has never been its offensive proficiencies but rather its defensive proficiencies. Temple utilized this very angle to defeat the Bulls in Philadelphia in 2016 when the Owls hung 46 points on USF en route to a 16-point victory. Just like this year, USF was considered the best team in the American Athletic Conference in 2016 but Temple took the conference hardware. We have yet to see USF in a true high-profile game this year, unless you consider USF steamrolling an Illinois team that beat up on an atypical Western Kentucky as such a feat.

Meanwhile, Temple was televised getting beat down by the Fighting Irish on opening weekend and that has left a lasting impression. Furthermore, despite an impressive 47-23 victory in which USF put up video-game like numbers in total yardage against Illinois when they eclipsed the 680 mark, there are some other statistics worth focusing on. First, the Oskie-Wow-Wows were able to generate 354 yards. This further reinforces that USF is once again living and dying by its offensive exploits. Additionally, Illinois committed three turnovers which is a big no-no against a team of South Florida’s potency. The Illini were penalized 15 times for 138 yards but it is USF that is one of the most penalized teams in America. In this contest, the Bulls were penalized 16 times for 140 yards. On the year, the Bulls average 13 penalties per game. In most outings, such a lack of discipline could be catastrophic. However, Illinois miscues and mistakes fed perfectly into South Florida’s hands.

Temple will not be so inclined to grant such clemency. Though the Owls have looked far weaker compared to its 2016 edition, Temple has only been penalized 6.5 times per game. Furthermore, Temple has only committed one turnover all year and that includes the aforementioned trip to South Bend. Temple also has the blueprint to beat or compete against this familiar team. The revenge angle is one that some will employ in this contest but such a philosophy is often a perilous proposition. In its first high-profile game of the season against Notre Dame, Temple was whacked but followed that up with consecutive victories over Villanova and UMass. Those two victories obviously hold no weight in this market but it did give the Owls an opportunity to clean up some things and also served as a confidence builder coming into this one. Getting whacked again is not a trait of this program. In fact, since 2014, Temple has just one loss by more than the points being offered here. This is a program built to compete.

We are not suggesting that Temple will pull off an upset. However, the Owls can certainly hang around and come in under this number. After all, USF had trouble putting away Stony Brook in Tampa as a 35-point home choice. The final score was 31-17 but USF didn’t pull away until the last two minutes. Very simply, this is a team that cannot be trusted spotting this kind of lumber to Temple and as the #21 ranked team in the country, the premium to back them is too steep.

Pass MLB

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Larry Ness

Texas at Seattle
Pick: Seattle

The Mariners were feeling pretty about their wild card chances after they took the final three games of a four-game series at Texas, from 9/12-14. However, the Mariners have crumbled ever since, losing their fifth straight game last night, 8-6 to the Rangers. Seattle has twice scored six runs in their five-game slide but in the other three, they've totaled a modest four runs. The Mariners are now four games behind the Twins for the AL's final wild card spot, with just 10 left to play. Meanwhile, the Rangers have followed a five-game skid, with three consecutive wins. Texas has climbed to within 2 1/2 games of Minnesota with 11 games remaining to its season.

Texas goes for a three-game road sweep tonight, when it sends Cole Hamels (10-4, 3.96 ERA) to the mound. Seattle hopes to avoid that sweep and end its five-game slide with James Paxton (12-4, 2.98 ERA) getting the nod. Hamels may be 10-4 but Texas is a more modest 12-9 in his starts, giving him a so-so moneyline mark of plus-$369. He may be 6-3 lifetime against Seattle in 13 starts (teams are 8-5) but one couldn't tell that by his 5.02 career ERA against the Mariners!

Paxton returned from a pectoral strain this past Friday but worked only 1 1/3 innings in a 5-2 loss at Houston. It marked his first loss since June 27. The lefty has been very good in 2017 when healthy, as since a June 16 outing against the Rangers, when he allowed seven runs, he hasn't allowed more than three ERs over any of his last 11 starts (Mariners are 8-3). Paxton lost that June 16 outing 10-4 vs the Rangers, falling to 2-3 with a 4.60 ERA in nine career starts against them (teams are 4-5).

Allowing no more than three ERs over 11 starts is quite a nice run and I haven't been impressed with Hamels in 2017 plus there is his 5.02 career ERA against Seattle to consider.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

SOUTH FLORIDA (-19.5) over Temple

The Temple Owls had one of the best seasons in school history last year, but this year’s edition is a shadow of that team. Head Coach Matt Rhule bolted to Baylor and the team lost a ton of talent. Don’t be fooled by the 2-1 straight-up record to start this season. Temple has been outgained in all three games and is 0-3 ATS, barely getting by the likes of Villanova and UMass. Now, they have to go on the road to face a revenge-minded South Florida team whose only conference loss came last year at Temple. The Bulls have Hurricane Irma in the rear-view mirror and are finally clicking on all cylinders, averaging 520 yards of offense per game. Lay the lumber!

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Bob Balfe

Rangers +125

James Paxton is having a fine year for the Mariners, but he never pitched this month in a season and maybe that is why his numbers are fading here at the end of the season. Cole Hamels has been doing this for ages so I expect him to be the better pitcher tonight. There is great value with the Rangers in this one.