Friday 9-22-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TOP SU TREND:

-- The Giants are 0-12 since Oct 07, 2016 as a road dog after they allowed 6 or fewer hits last game.

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TOP OU TREND:

-- The Rockies are 0-14 OU (-3.71 ppg) since Aug 01, 2017 after they did not hit a home run.

TOP STARTER TREND:

-- The Orioles are 10-0 since Sep 23, 2014 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts as a dog in September or October.

TOP CHOICE TREND:

-- The Indians are 19-0 since Jun 11, 2017 as a favorite after Edwin Encarnacion hit a home run last game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones
Sep 22 '17, 7:10 PM
MLB | Red Sox vs Reds
Play on: Red Sox -132 at BMaker

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Boston Red Sox -132

This is a pretty cheap price for the Boston Red Sox. They are trying to hold on to first place in the AL East at 3 games ahead of the New York Yankees. They are doing a good job of it by going 6-1 in their last seven games overall. Now they face a Reds team that is 66-87 and was just swept at home by the Cardinals last series.

Rick Porcello has been much better in the second half of the season, and he's 1-1 with a 1.46 ERA in his last three starts. Porcello has done his best work on the road this season, going 4-6 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in 13 starts away from home.

Sal Romano is getting way too much respect from the books here. He has pitched well in his last three starts, but that has come against weak NL lineups in the Pirates (twice) and Mets. He is 5-6 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in 14 starts this year. He'll have his work cut out for him against this potent Red Sox lineup.

Cincinnati is 6-21 vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season. The Red Sox are 81-33 in their last 114 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. Boston is 10-1 in Porcello's last 11 interleague starts. The Reds are 17-45 in their last 62 interleague games. Bet the Red Sox Friday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin
Sep 22 '17, 7:05 PM
MLB | Rays vs Orioles
Play on: Rays -108 at 5Dimes

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Tampa Bay Rays -108

The Tampa Bay Rays have the edge on the mound over the Baltimore Orioles today and should be bigger favorites because of it. Alex Cobb is 11-10 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 28 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his last three. Ubaldo Jimenez is 6-10 with a 6.93 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 24 starts, including 2-3 with a 7.28 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in 11 home starts. Cobb is 5-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 11 previous starts against the Orioles. Jimenez is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts against Tampa Bay, yielding 14 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings. Give me the Rays.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams
Sep 22 '17, 7:05 PM
MLB | NYY vs TOR
Play on: OVER 8½ -110

1* on Yankees vs Blue Jays over 8½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays
Sep 22 '17, 10:10 PM
MLB | Giants vs Dodgers
Play on: Dodgers -208 at betonline

1* Free Play on Dodgers -208

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

ARIZONA +3½ over Utah

Utah is 3-0 as they get set to fire up their Pac-12 schedule but the Utes are a great example of how college win/loss records can be very deceiving. Through three games, Utah has played nobody of substance, including in-state rival BYU. They have double-digit wins over both San Jose State and North Dakota, both of which are a notch above Division II. In their only game where they were not favored by 20 or more, the Utes struggled against BYU barely covering as -4½ point road chalk. BYU is putrid and cannot score, posting just 40 points in four games with 20 or those coming against Portland State as a -35 point favorite. The combined record of Utah's cupcake opponents is 3-8 and the three wins of said opponents came against some of the worst teams in the country. Now the Utes come in ranked #23 in the country. You will always pay a price to get behind ranked versus unranked and that applies here as well. Utah is not close to being one of the top 23 teams in America.

Arizona, on the other hand, is 2-1 having lost to Houston 19-16 in Week 2 as a one-point pooch. In their other two games, the Wildcats also played a pair of cupcakes but they pasted both Texas-El Paso and Northern Arizona by 47 and 38 points respectively. The Arizona offense put up over 60 points in both of those games as they easily covered the 25 and 26 points lines. The defensive battle with Houston was a surprise, as the total in that game was 67, but the Wildcats' offense still had a good day with 371 yards in the air and another 152 on the ground, despite not putting a bunch of points on the board. That loss to Houston and the fact it came at home has lowered 'Zona's value in the market, which we’ll attempt to take advantage of. Entering this game as a ranked team instantly gives credibility to the Utes in the market but that superficial number is just that. The Utes are not that good and certianly not worthy of this billing on the road.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Minnesota -1½ +111 over DETROIT

The AL Wild Card race has basically come down to Minnesota versus Texas, the Angels and K.C with Minnesota holding a 2½-game lead. Twins Manager, Paul Molitor has been outmaneuvering everyone all season long and that figures to continue here in this very winnable and important series. Molitor’s baseball IQ was off the charts when he was a player and it’s still off the charts. After watching him all season long, we’re convinced he’s the best in the game and that matters this time of year.

Daniel Norris has started since early July. He returned in early September to make four relief appearances but the Tigers were getting pounded in all of them but one. He came into games that the Tigers lost 10-4, 8-2 and 11-1. Norris has been a physical mess since his Sept 2014 debut. He had off-season surgery for thyroid cancer, a fractured back in March of that same year and also suffered an oblique strain last June. This year he’s been dealing on and off with a strained groin the entire season and when he has been healthy enough to pitch, it hasn’t been pretty. Norris brings his .300 oppBA, 1.67 WHIP, 6.02 xERA and poor control into this start, his first in roughly 10 weeks. The Tigers need bodies to finish out the season and that’s what Norris provides right now.

While nobody was watching, the Twins added a third dangerous arm to their prospective playoff rotation. While people were fawning over adorable, ancient, rotund, polygamous Bartolo Colon and mulling whether the team could cobble together a competent fifth starting slot, Kyle Gibson evolved into the solid, efficient, mid-rotation innings-eater he always ought to have been.

Since being exiled to Triple-A (for the first of two times this season) in early May, Gibson has made 30 starts (27 with the Twins, and three with the Rochester Red Wings), posted a 3.94 ERA, pitched 162 innings, faced 606 batters, struck out 122, walked 58, and induced ground balls on more than half of all batted balls against him.

A career that seemed very much in jeopardy as recently as two months ago now seems to be on a steady, upward trajectory. With any pitcher as broken and removed from his own potential as Gibson was earlier this season, it’s hard to put much faith on a recent surge but it’s legit.

Gibson has a fairly high natural arm slot, but over his career, he’s somewhat lost touch with it, and has even artificially raised it—with disastrous results. When Gibson releases the ball from a higher sheer height, it’s usually because he’s either tilting his spine sharply to the left (carrying him off a straight line toward his target and wasting some of the energy in his motion) or not bending the back enough at all. Not the way the release point rose throughout 2016. That was Gibson (hampered by pain in his shoulder and lower back) simply landing on a stiff front leg, staying high throughout the drive phase of his delivery, and throwing without finishing strongly. Recognizing that issue, Gibson consulted a former coach from his amateur days this winter and landed at the Florida Baseball Ranch. There, he retrained his shoulder muscles to absorb the energy of completing his release and allowing his arm to recoil. The resulting arm path was a bit lower and considerably easier to repeat, and it began to pay off as he tapped into other mechanical improvements later in the season. Gibson has always relied heavily on his sinker and that is still in play. On video, you can see a mild version of Max Scherzer’s head movement from Gibson lately, and the reason is that (like Scherzer) Gibson has added a bunch of well-directed energy to the final phase of his delivery, snapping his upper half toward the plate as if spring-loaded. The most obvious change Gibson has made, of course, is one that can easily be observed without an especially keen eye for pitching mechanics or an intimate knowledge of Gibson’s medical history. He’s become a five-pitch pitcher, especially over the last two months or so. All of what you just read has progressively made Gibson a reliable and effective five-pitch pitcher that will now face a bunch of young and inexperienced hitters. Minnesota figures to score a bunch off of Norris and that putrid ‘pen while Detroit can’t get out of their own way these days.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob

Virginia @ Boise St.

BOISE STATE -12 31 Virginia 13

Strong Opinion – Under (52½)

It appears as if Brett Rypien will be back at quarterback for Boise State after sitting out nearly two full games with a concussion. The line jumped up a couple of points on that news but I would have preferred to play Boise at a lower number with Montell Cozart at quarterback since I don’t think Rypien makes a difference to the offense. Cozart actually has better compensated passing numbers this season (6.7 yards per pass play on 51 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB) than Rypien has (5.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp) and Cozart adds a running element (187 yards on 28 runs) that Rypien does not possess. Rypien’s sample size this season is small (37 pass plays) and he averaged 8.6 yppp in 2016 (against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp) so I still rate the Broncos’ as a better passing team with Rypien.

However, I do not expect Rypien to be nearly as good as he was last season when the Broncos had two elite receivers in Thomas Sperbeck (10.2 yards per target on 125 targets) and Cedrick Wilson (11.9 ypt on 95 targets). Rypien still has Wilson to throw to and he’s been just as good (12.0 ypt on 23 targets) but the next 3 wide receivers have combined to average just 5.7 ypt on 21 targets, which is a massive drop-off from what Sperbeck averaged. Boise’s pass attack won’t be nearly as good as last season unless another receiver steps up and the rushing attack, without Cozart helping, is also worse.

Boise lost RB Jeremy McNichols (1709 yards at 5.4 ypr in ’16) to the NFL after his junior season and new backs Mattison and Wolphin have combined for a dismal 3.9 ypr through the first 3 games. Overall the Boise offense rates the same with either quarterback because of what Cozart adds with his feet and the Broncos are clearly not as good on the attack side of the ball as they were last season.

Virginia’s defense is mediocre at best, as the 20.7 points per game they’ve allowed through 3 games is not indicative of their level of play. The Cavaliers have allowed 5.2 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team and last season that unit was 0.3 yppl worse than average. Overall, the math projects a modest 5.7 yppl for Boise State in this game.

While the Boise State offense doesn’t figure to be as good this season, the Broncos defense looks significantly improved. Boise has yielded just 4.2 yards per play against Troy, Washington State, and New Mexico and held the best of those offenses (WSU) to just 4.8 yppl in their overtime loss to the Cougars (just 3.8 yppl in the other two games combined). Virginia looked incredibly good offensively in last week’s 38-18 win over Connecticut with 621 yards at 8.7 yppl but the Cavaliers have averaged just 5.6 yppl in 3 games even without those incredible numbers from last week skewing their average upwards. Virginia actually rates at 0.7 yppl worse than average when you take into account that the three teams the Cavaliers have faced would combine to allow 6.3 yppl to an average team. I don’t see the Cavs having much success in this game against what appears to be a very good Boise State defense.

Overall, my math favors Boise State by 15 ½ points and I get 19 points using this year’s games only. The Broncos also apply to a 151-63-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Virginia applies to a 101-212-5 ATS situation. I’ll consider Boise State a 1-Star Best Bet at -12 or less and as a Strong Opinion from -12.5 to -14.

I also see this as a low scoring game given that Boise State’s offense is not as good while their defense is underrated. Boise is also playing at a much slower pace so far this season and their games have averaged 11.3 points below the over/under total (excluding the total points in overtime against Washington State). I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 51 points or higher.

Note: The line was at -12 this morning but has since moved out of Best Bet range up to -13. I still consider Boise a Strong Opinion at that number.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MMA Profitcy

T Gomi vs D H Kim
Pick: D H Kim

Gomi is a legend of this sport, but is absolutely shot. I feel the line on this should be much worse. Kim has lost to only top competitors in the division, Gomi is no longer that. Play Kim confidently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Finn

Utah vs. Arizona
Play: Utah -3

This late kick west coast contest between the Utes and the Wildcats is scheduled for a 10:30 p.m. ET primetime start on Arizona Stadium field in Tucson and will be broadcast by Fox Sport 1.

This Pacific Coast Conference event won't represent most P-12 contests with pocket passers that occupy the current league but rather will feature two signal-callers that can run and pass.

Utah sophomore Tyler Huntley is responsible for 360 yards per game for his team and has run for nearly as many touchdowns as he has thrown, registering three by land and five by air in 2017.

Arizona junior Brandon Dawkins is averaging over 80 yards per game on the ground with five rushing touchdowns and four through the air.

Both head coaches will be using their football pieces to play a chess game on Friday night and played correctly the Utes have the advantage as the visitor tonight in southern Arizona.

Can the U of A Wildcats continue to be successful with their 325 rushing yards per contest against a Utes defensive front that has allowed less than 50 yards per game rushing?

Did Arizona's head coach Rich Rodriguez pour it on late in last Saturday's 63-16 rout of UTEP in El Paso get his players and field leaders past their porous performance and loss to the Houston Cougars in Week #2.

Can Utah bench boss Kyle Whitingham continue to coach-up his players on the road with the same success he has had in the past?

Rich Rod and his offense scored a mere 16 points in their home loss this season to a pedestrian Houston Cougars defense while Whitingham has already manufactured a quality road win at BYU.

The Utes strayed somewhat from their typical soft non-conference schedule this season with an affair at Brigham Young but with that win have now executed a clean sweep of their non-con foes for the fifth straight year. The Utes have also won their last two conference openers and look to make it three straight tonight in Tucson.

The Utes have plenty of talented skill players around Huntley including Oregon transfer Darren Carrington II who has 26 catches for 409 yards and four scores this season.

Defensively Utah front seven have been as good as any group in the FBS behind linebacker Sunia Tauteoli. The Utes stop-unit have taken the ball away nine times this season and that number includes six interceptions.

Dawkins and his teammates put the home loss against Houston behind them last Saturday by running up the score on an undermanned UTEP Miners squad. Dawkins and tailbacks Nick Wilson and J.J. Taylor have to find a route through the Utah front seven tonight if they want to prevent a second straight loss on their home turf.

Defensively the Wildcats have been nothing short of ordinary in 2017. The group hasn't been effective despite forcing seven turnovers and are allowing nearly 400 yards per game across their first three September events.

The special teams edge tonight goes to Utah. Place kicker Matt Gay has yet to miss a field goal attempt (11-for-11) and the Utes roster the 2016 Ray Guy Award winner Mitch Wishnowsky who has a 45-plus yard net average in 2017.

It is difficult to trust Arizona coach Rich Rod. The public supported him and his kids a week ago steaming the market spread as much as six points in their road event against the Minors. The Wildcats defense has allowed only three touchdowns over the last two games but this is essentially the same unit that has allowed nearly 40 points per affair over their last 10 contests.

It is noteworthy to mention for those that are not Pac-12 faithful that coach Rodriguez didn't record a conference win last year and his team was a miserable 2-7 ATS.

While Arizona has been as inconsistent this season as they were last the same can't be said about Whittingham’s team. Utah has outgaining all three of their opponents this September by 200-plus yards.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

BOISE STATE (-12.5) over Virginia

After being sidelined for last week’s game with a head injury, Boise State QB Brett Rypien has been cleared to play tonight and that’s good news for the Broncos offense that struggled without him during a lackluster 28-14 win over New Mexico last week. With Rypien back under center, the Boise State offense will be too much for a Virginia defense that was lit up for 56 points and 447 yards of total offense the last time these two teams met back in 2015. On the other side of the ball, the Boise State defense is playing remarkably well and has been outshining the offense after holding Troy and New Mexico to a combined 27 points while also keeping the powerful Washington State offense in check, allowing just 10 points through three quarters before losing a heart-breaker in triple OT. The Cavs are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against WAC foes and that trend continues tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Finn

Utah vs. Arizona
Play: Utah -3

This late kick west coast contest between the Utes and the Wildcats is scheduled for a 10:30 p.m. ET primetime start on Arizona Stadium field in Tucson and will be broadcast by Fox Sport 1.

This Pacific Coast Conference event won't represent most P-12 contests with pocket passers that occupy the current league but rather will feature two signal-callers that can run and pass.

Utah sophomore Tyler Huntley is responsible for 360 yards per game for his team and has run for nearly as many touchdowns as he has thrown, registering three by land and five by air in 2017.

Arizona junior Brandon Dawkins is averaging over 80 yards per game on the ground with five rushing touchdowns and four through the air.

Both head coaches will be using their football pieces to play a chess game on Friday night and played correctly the Utes have the advantage as the visitor tonight in southern Arizona.

Can the U of A Wildcats continue to be successful with their 325 rushing yards per contest against a Utes defensive front that has allowed less than 50 yards per game rushing?

Did Arizona's head coach Rich Rodriguez pour it on late in last Saturday's 63-16 rout of UTEP in El Paso get his players and field leaders past their porous performance and loss to the Houston Cougars in Week #2.

Can Utah bench boss Kyle Whitingham continue to coach-up his players on the road with the same success he has had in the past?

Rich Rod and his offense scored a mere 16 points in their home loss this season to a pedestrian Houston Cougars defense while Whitingham has already manufactured a quality road win at BYU.

The Utes strayed somewhat from their typical soft non-conference schedule this season with an affair at Brigham Young but with that win have now executed a clean sweep of their non-con foes for the fifth straight year. The Utes have also won their last two conference openers and look to make it three straight tonight in Tucson.

The Utes have plenty of talented skill players around Huntley including Oregon transfer Darren Carrington II who has 26 catches for 409 yards and four scores this season.

Defensively Utah front seven have been as good as any group in the FBS behind linebacker Sunia Tauteoli. The Utes stop-unit have taken the ball away nine times this season and that number includes six interceptions.

Dawkins and his teammates put the home loss against Houston behind them last Saturday by running up the score on an undermanned UTEP Miners squad. Dawkins and tailbacks Nick Wilson and J.J. Taylor have to find a route through the Utah front seven tonight if they want to prevent a second straight loss on their home turf.

Defensively the Wildcats have been nothing short of ordinary in 2017. The group hasn't been effective despite forcing seven turnovers and are allowing nearly 400 yards per game across their first three September events.

The special teams edge tonight goes to Utah. Place kicker Matt Gay has yet to miss a field goal attempt (11-for-11) and the Utes roster the 2016 Ray Guy Award winner Mitch Wishnowsky who has a 45-plus yard net average in 2017.

It is difficult to trust Arizona coach Rich Rod. The public supported him and his kids a week ago steaming the market spread as much as six points in their road event against the Minors. The Wildcats defense has allowed only three touchdowns over the last two games but this is essentially the same unit that has allowed nearly 40 points per affair over their last 10 contests.

It is noteworthy to mention for those that are not Pac-12 faithful that coach Rodriguez didn't record a conference win last year and his team was a miserable 2-7 ATS.

While Arizona has been as inconsistent this season as they were last the same can't be said about Whittingham’s team. Utah has outgaining all three of their opponents this September by 200-plus yards.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Rays -115

The Orioles have been silent with the bats the last week in addition to the Rays having the more consistent starting pitcher on the mound. Ubaldo Jimenez shows flashes of greatness at time, but his numbers have been declining so I expect the Rays to get to him early and often.

[New York Knight]

Verlander is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA, 0.62 WHIP and 26 Ks in 3 starts since joining Astros.


HOU -153 tonight vs LAA

[New York Knight]

Gianni The Greek

UFC Japan (No Premiums)


Main-Event = OSP

Co-Main = GADELHA

Main Card = KIM, GOKHAN, DY, & FORMIGA

Under Card = NAKAMURA, JEON, JUMEAU, & ABE