Saturday 9-30-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

MIAMI-OHIO (+21) over Notre Dame

The popular narrative is that Brian Kelly and the Irish have got their act together following a home loss to Georgia three weeks ago. And while N.D. has rebounded with two wins and two covers the last two weeks, we’re not impressed. The first win came against a weak Boston College team in a game that was 14-10 in the third quarter. Last week, the Irish left Michigan State with a 38-18 win, but were the beneficiary of three Spartan turnovers and were actually outgained in total yards. Under Kelly, ND is famous for playing down to its competition. They are also just 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of more than a TD when coming off a win. Miami-Ohio is a senior-laden team that will treat this game like it’s their Super Bowl. The Red Hawks have also covered 14 of their last 21 on the road and 10 of their last 15 as an underdog. Take the points!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nelly

Air Force - over New Mexico

In jeopardy of a potential four-game slide with this tough matchup ahead, New Mexico delivered a narrow road upset last week at Tulsa. The Lobos have received decent play from their backup quarterback Coltin Gerhart but he has had turnovers and provides much less potential in the passing game. New Mexico has had great success in this series with five ATS wins in a row and S/U wins each of the last two seasons as a double-digit underdog. Air Force still doesn't have a FBS win this season but the Falcons have competed well against elite defensive teams the past two games hanging tough at Michigan and losing a tight game with San Diego State last week. Air Force has great special teams play and catching the Lobos off a huge win should help the Falcons get back on track in this series as the Falcons look to recover from a disappointing defeat. Despite a big disparity in the quality of the defenses faced the rushing numbers are very similar and New Mexico's defense has fared well against the pass this season but that won't come into play in this matchup. This will also be the smallest favorite spread for Air Force in this series the past three years with the line over a touchdown each of the past three seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

TENNESSEE +9 over Georgia

It's always critical to determine why the games play out the way they do after the fact, and whether the outcome reveals more strength in the victor or weakness in the vanquished. Georgia logged a massive win last week over Mississippi State the week after Mississippi State whacked LSU. That Georgia/MSU game last week was broken down a million ways and was tabbed as one of the marquee matchups of the day. State was never in it, as Georgia rolled them from start to finish to move well up the rankings and into the conversation as a playoff contender. You will now pay extra points to get behind the Dawgs at Rocky Top in this one.

We always want to make identification of teams’ coming off a lopsided win against a good opponent because they are almost always overvalued the next time out. We touched on Conquering Heroes' syndrome in the past, pointing out Alabama's miserable track record in Week 2 games immediately following a marquee win in one of the season's big opening week neutral-site clashes. Bama never threatened to cover a big number against Fresno State, and Michigan fell victim to the same issue, turning in a lackluster performance as a heavy favorite the week after its demolition of Florida. Georgia is a great candidate to follow suit this week, coming off an emotional win and spotting nearly double digits to a team that can win outright over just about anyone and that includes the Bulldogs. Our outlook on Kirby Smart's Georgia program is and has been one of general optimism, but the Dawgs look to be a year or two of quarterback development, offensive line recruiting and general depth-building away from becoming a legitimate top 10 team. While the Dawgs are a great program that has gotten off to a great start, they may be the most overvalued team on today’s card.

Coastal Carolina +7½ over UL MONROE

The Warhawks are one of the most talked about mid-major teams this week after they orchestrated an upset of their cross-state enemies, UL-Lafayette on the road in the 2017 edition of The Battle of the Bayou. The Warhawks went into Lafayette as a mid-range underdog and pulled off a 56-50 overtime win. Adopting contrarian philosophies is a strategy we employ and that places Monroe in our crosshairs. The Warhawks come into a spot that we savor, as it presents an optimal opportunity to target them. The hunters have now become the hunted, as Monroe is spotting considerable points to visiting Coastal Carolina, a team that has hit a nasty skid as of late.

The Chanticleers crashed the gates when they won their first ever FBS game in Conway on Labor Day weekend when they handled visiting Massachusetts. The Chanticleers were supremely undervalued but won the game decisively by a 38-28 final tally. While the victory does not hold much water in light of the Minutemen’s winless record on the year, the victory continued a surge of CC triumphs that showcased the level this team is capable of playing at. CC was a football team that lost only two games by a combined margin of two points in 2016 at the FCS level against two opponents ranked in the top-10. CC had extended their winning streak to eight games before embarking upon the two-game funk they are riding now. With a loss at UAB and a nasty spat against WIU where they fell 52-10, the mystique of the Chanticleers has swiftly evaporated. They can re-conjure it against the trendy Warhawks.

While the victory against Lafayette is one that is landmark for Monroe and a public service announcement to the masses it is worth highlighting the fact that the Warhawks held as much as a 16-point lead in the affair. Furthermore, the Warhawks also held a 14-point lead on two additional occasions late in the second half. One of those instances occurred with seven minutes remaining in the contest. Despite Lafayette owning the worst defense in the FBS, the Ragin Cajuns were able to never let the game get out of control and managed to send the affair to overtime on a late rally when they scored in the final moments of regulation. Two overtimes were required for Monroe to pull off the upset. Essentially, the Warhawks had to throw the kitchen sink at Lafayette to get rid of them and even then, they had to sweat out the match until the Cajuns ran out of gas. After such a hard-fought victory, Monroe could easily get snared against a Coastal Carolina team looking to end their woes. While UL Monroe basks in the glory of such a relevant win against such a hated rival, the Chanticleers can come in here and not only cover but pull off the upset. This is the first Sun Belt game for CC so they can easily forget about what happened in the past two weeks and focus on raising havoc in this conference be that they don’t get a bowl game this season due to transitional requirements. With a Monroe team sitting in a position it is not accustomed to being in, (the favorite, let alone a significant favorite), chances are it is not equipped to spot this amount of points.

Syracuse +14 over N.C. STATE

Targeting overreactions is something we preach on a day-to-day basis. North Carolina State’s 27-21 win at Florida State as a 10½-point road pooch has creating one here. Florida State entered the 2017-18 season as a very popular choice to win the ACC and qualify for the College Football Playoff. Although Florida State lost its starting quarterback in its season opener when they were handled by Alabama by a score of 24-7, a presiding presumption was that the Seminoles vaunted defense combined with home cooking would have been able to get it done against the Wolfpack. After all, Florida State also had extensive time to prepare given the fact their September 9th contest with UL Monroe was postponed due to Hurricane Irma’s impacts and also given the fact they had a bye in the week in between. Instead, NC State marched in and won their third straight game further driving their stock.

Syracuse comes in off a 35-26 loss at LSU. The Orange would cover a lofty three-touchdown plus line but this did not seem to raise as many eyebrows as it normally would have, likely because LSU looked abysmal when Mississippi State routed the Bayou Bengals in the week previous. With ‘Cuse owning an outright loss at home as a 7½-point favorite against Middle Tennessee State and just one win against a FBS opponent (Central Michigan) on the year, Syracuse offers little appeal. When the one win against a FBS opponent came at home and the competition hails from a Group of Five conference, the outlook becomes even more grim considering NC State gets to play this one at home. North Carolina State has also won the last three in this series.

Generally speaking, Carter-Finley Stadium is known as one of the toughest places to play in all of college football. The Wolfpack fan base is one that is rabid. Though the Wolfpack may not have as prestigious or accomplished track records compared to some of their more illustrious colleagues, NC State supporters are diehards and have a knack for getting in visitors’ faces. Combining that with the fuel they’ll be fed off the Florida State win, it seems the Orange have a lot of trouble awaiting them in Raleigh. However, N.C. State has already lost a game at home this year that it was supposed to win. As a -7½-point choice, the Wolfpack were defeated by the South Carolina Gamecocks. Though State accumulated double what SC did in terms of offensive production, Cocky was able to get up to a two-touchdown lead.

Syracuse comes in here with an offense that scores 35 points per game and ranks 25th in passing yards per game (300 yards per game). Both teams are likely to leave their pass defenses at home, so this has all the makings of a shootout. Academically, taking the points when a touchdown or more is offered is a prudent move in contests of this variety. However, this can be easily thrown out the window if one elects to sip the N.C. State Kool-Aid thanks to their big win last week. Though Kool-Aid tastes good and causes a sugar rush, it also produces a crash if you drink too much. N.C. State is set-up to do just that in this spot.

FRESNO ST -9½ over Nevada

We're extremely high on a Fresno State squad that has done some really nice things this year already that has gone essentially unnoticed but we are even more pessimistic about the new regime at Nevada than we were about the last one. If our reads are right, this is a quality favorite at home facing what might be one of the bottom-10 teams in the FBS. The usual difference in that scenario is easily more than 21 points. The end-around to capitalizing on the mismatch while ducking what is often a slow start by the favorite and avoiding asking a team to win too big is to wait and seek value during the game or at halftime but what don’t see that happening here.

You see, Fresno State was off last week after losing its last two by scores of 41-10 and 48-16. On paper, that looks awful but those two losses occurred against #1 Alabama and #6 Washington. Fresno State moved the chains all day against Alabama but knew that FG’s would do nothing so they were stopped on some fourth down attempts. They didn’t have as much in them against Washington but the step down in class here is one of mammoth proportions that this number does not reflect. We often say that there is a price to play for scheduling games against weak opponents but the opposite holds true also. There is a big reward for scheduling games against the best teams in the country and we’re strongly suggesting that Fresno State and its backers will reap those rewards here.

KENT STATE +7½ over Buffalo

The Buffalo Bulls are 2-2 this season but more importantly, it is 4-0 against the spread and now that the market is jumping on, we’re jumping off. Bad favorites are teams that perform the role of favorite rarely, and unreliably. Expansion has overpopulated the bottom tier of the FBS, and consequently there are plenty of really poor teams occasionally asked to spot significant points these days, especially in the less recently stabilized conferences. While the MAC is considered to be more stabilized than say Conference USA or the Sun Belt, Buffalo is still an unestablished commodity that brings far too much risk.

The bad-favorite archetype is a program that hasn't won much at all the past several years, let alone posted winning seasons. Rarely favored to win, its players are accustomed to losing. These teams aren't good enough to play four mistake-free quarters, lack explosive playmakers, aren't accustomed to playing with leads and haven't had enough experience closing out games. Any victory is usually hard-earned. These are not the teams you want to ask to win, let alone by large margins. The Bulls fit this to a tee. Buffalo’s 34-31 win as 1½ -point chalk against Florida Atlantic was the Bulls' first turn laying points in an FBS game since 2015 and their first cover when favored in six tries. Now the number has gone up quite a bit more and frankly, it’s bordering on ludicrous. The Golden Flashes have already played Clemson and Louisville so playing the Bulls should appear in slow motion for them. Kent State getting 7½ at home to the Bulls is true value in a game they can absolutely win outright.

EAST CAROLINA +21 over South Florida

We’re not going to discuss ECU much here because this wager has very little to do with them. We are always in the buy-low/sell high business and that especially holds true in the early kickoffs, as the market teases and parlays targeted games in an attempt to get a head start on the day and have some live tickets later. Of all the early games, South Florida’s stock is the highest and therefore, they become our fade target.

The Bulls treated weeknight viewers to a pair of nationally televised blowouts of Illinois and Temple the past two weeks, outgaining those foes by a whopping 650 yards. Quarterback Quinton Flowers is a special athlete, and there's plenty of offensive skill around him. This is a fast, physical, athletic roster, and all three phases are explosive and dangerous. However, USF is also self-destructive and we’re happy to be taking back an inflated priced against them on the road.

The Bulls' warts have been on display in all four games this season: too many penalties, boneheaded mistakes and discipline issues. The team often plays fast and hard but not smart, and the offense is prone to lulls and occasional wasted possessions. Charlie Strong inherited a ready-made team, but he doesn't have full control of it yet. The Bulls are dangerous to themselves and others, and while they'll explode and rout a few more teams this year, we aren't trusting them with our money.

That's largely because the Bulls are now a ranked commodity. Willie Taggart changed the offense to an up-tempo scheme that fit Flowers well in 2015, and the result was a 10-3 ATS record in a year in which USF went 8-5 for its first winning season in five years. Last year, Flowers took another step, as the offense averaged more than 500 yards per game and the Bulls broke out with an 11-2 season. The prices still hadn't quite caught up, and the ATS record was still strong despite slipping to 8-5. This year, the value has faded. There are lofty expectations, especially regarding the explosive talent on offense, and the gaudy blowouts on weeknight television are only fueling them. South Florida is now being asked to lay prices never before seen in program history, and while the expected athleticism has been on display, indications are that the maturity, discipline and consistency are sketchy enough to run from investing.

NEW MEXICO +116 over Air Force

Of the two teams featured in this Mountain West bout, the Falcons of Air Force certainly own the higher profile. Under Coach Troy Calhoun, the Falcons have assembled two 10-win seasons in their previous three campaigns (2014 and 2016) and participated in the 2015 Mountain West Championship Game. Besides being a fan favorite as a United States Military Academy institution, the Falcons are the team in the Mountain West that seem to have Boise State’s number. The Falcons have won three in a row against the Broncos and though this may not seem pertain to this contest, it does in that ‘Thunder and Lightning’ have single-handedly reshaped the landscape of this league by showing that the traditional Goliath of this conference is beatable. The Falcons are that “one rock”. All those factoids have an influence on the perception of this market. With Air Force also engaging in a dog-fight with the current big dog of the Mountain West, San Diego State, the Falcons seem positioned to once again be primed for a 10-win season and perhaps a contender for the Mountain West if they were to cross paths with the Aztecs again in the Conference Championship Game at season’s end. Air Force led on two occasions against SDSU. They led by as much as nine points at one juncture and held a lead late in the fourth quarter before the two-time defending MWC Champs would slip away in a 28-24 heartbreaker. Performances such as these often set up teams for a huge let-down in their follow-up.

For the Lobos, the concussion bug has created a quarterback carousel. Two weeks ago, New Mexico lost its starting signal caller Lamar Jordan due to a helmet-to-helmet hit sustained against Boise State. With back-up Tevaka Tuioti who also split time with Jordan shelved thanks to injuries of a similar nature, New Mexico had to turn to its third-string quarterback Cotlin Gerhart to get the job done. New Mexico would lose and head into Tulsa as a 10-point road pup, seemingly positioned to be a sacrificial lamb to the Golden Hurricane in its own den. With many suggesting New Mexico was a sitting duck, Gerhart would be exceptional on the ground and rush for 156 yards and a touchdown. New Mexico would go on to a complete the upset thanks mostly in part to the play of its defense, which has been stout against the run all season long. The Lobos managed to mitigate a Tulsa offense averaging 47 points a game and 364 yards on the ground to just 13 points and 155 yards rushing. With Air Force being a run specialist in its own right, the Lobos match-up well with the Falcons.

The Lobos have won three of the last four against the Falcons and they are playing this one at home in Albuquerque. Nevertheless, given the perception of Air Force compared to New Mexico, many in this market see the Falcons as a steal. After all, Air Force’s losses came at #7 Michigan and against aforementioned #22 San Diego State, both of which have a bit of shine to them. New Mexico lost to New Mexico State earlier this year, which on paper looks terrible. However, New Mexico will have Lamar Jordan back at the helm for this contest and he can throw as well as run. In fact, Jordan threw for 328 yards in two and a half weeks before his injury. Air Force left it all on the field the past two weeks and especially last week against SDSU in what was a deceptively physical game. The Falcons are spent and a New Mexico team that's just hitting its stride is a tough assignment coming off games against two ranked opponents.

San Jose St +14½ over UNLV

In finding value in the numbers, certain teams’ stock is so low that they bode exceptional value. Such is the case regarding San Jose State. As a whole, the Spartans are a tough sale. San Jose is known as a cupcake and they have performed like one so far in 2017. The Spartans have yet to win a game against an FBS opponent and their four losses this year are difficult to stomach. Currently, the Spartans are riding a three-game losing streak and have given up 54 points or more in each of their three defeats. In their most recent outing, Utah State would come in as a two-point choice and hammer SJSU 61-10 on the Spartans’ own field. San Jose’s stock couldn’t be much lower, thus creating this opportunity. Make no mistake that San Jose State is being offered an inflated price here and UNLV is not good enough to be spotting inflated prices.

We would be remiss to conjure up what was a historical anecdote in 2017 and the Rebels were a part of it. UNLV is the owner of the biggest upset in college football history at an against-the-spread level. The Rebels were not the authors of this triumphant tale, they were the subject of it. As a 45-point home choice in Week 1, the Rebels would fall to the Howard Bison, a FCS team by a score of 43-40. Since this catastrophic defeat, UNLV would stage a rout of visiting Idaho when they squashed the Vandals 44-16 in their follow-up. The Rebels would get a bye and then head to The Horseshoe and cover a 40½ -point spread in a 54-21 loss against Ohio State. Seemingly all has been forgotten about the Howard debacle but this is another good spot to fade the Rebels.

You see, UNLV was on a major stage last week in Ohio State so many people were able to get a glimpse of them when they covered and put up 21 points in the process. The week prior, UNLV whacked Idaho 44-16 and easily covered that one too. That’s two straight covers for the Rebels while SJSU has lost its last three by scores of 56-0, 54-16. and 61-10 respectively. That’s a combined 171-26, which is something that resonated loudly in this market when UNLV opened as a 9½-point favorite and was subsequently bet up to this current price. Don’t get caught up in fading the Spartans here because if you do, you’re playing them at a bad number. We’ll play them at a very good number and watch them respond after three humiliating losses against a very beatable team host.