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Thursday 10-5-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
I know how hot the Indians have been to end the season but in this matchup in the post season I love Sonny Grey here. Gray pitched better in the regular season and he has ace stuff. Can't beat the plus money value here. Invest a 9 unit investment in the Yankees tonight.
Fp: Pat's have struggled to start the season losing 2 of the first 4 and Tampa Bay had looked avrage on offense as well 57 points to win will be a chore making the under my nfl free pick.
Play - Buccaneers-Patriots OVER (Game 303).
Edges - Patriots 5-1 OVER last six games versus NFC South opponents; and 4-2 OVER versus NFC following an NFC games… Buccaneers: 3-1 OVER home versus AFC foe off SU loss… With these two teams having played OVER the total in 6 of their 7 combined games this season, we recommend a 1* on the OVER total in this game. Thank you and good luck as always.
It is going to be very hard to side against Houston's Justin Verlander in this series lid-lifter, but my free pick for Thursday is on the Boston Red Sox in the matinee game.
If there is one game the Red Sox must have, it's Game 1 of this series. Boston ace Chris Sale is tabbed with the daunting task of shutting down a lineup that led the majors in batting average (.282), on-base percentage (.346), and slugging percentage (.478).
Quite a task, in defeating Verlander, and quieting the bats. But I'm taking the shot here, as Boston poses a serious threat and can challenge for this outright win.
And I say that with the utmost respect for what the Astros have done this season, but I have to lend credence to Sale, who is 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA over six starts against the Red Sox, while producing 65 strikeouts against five walks in 48 innings.
Now, after 260 regular-season trips to the hill, Sale will make his first postseason start. I think he thrives. Play the Red Sox in this one.
Dunkel Rating:
Louisville
100.780
NC State
93.308
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Louisville
by 7 1/2
71
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisville
by 3 1/2
65 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
Louisville
(-3 1/2); Over
Alcorn State @ Alabama St
Game 501-502
October 5, 2017 @ 7:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Alcorn State
53.463
Alabama St
40.742
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alcorn State
by 12 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alcorn State
by 10
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Alcorn State
(-10 1/2); Under
Thursday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Louisville at NC State
Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack (+3, 65.5)
North Carolina State served notice it was a team to be reckoned with in late September when it toppled then-No. 11 Florida State in Tallahassee, and coach Dave Doeren's squad will get another chance to prove it has some staying power less than two weeks later. The 24th-ranked Wolfpack eye their first 3-0 start in ACC play since 2002 and a fifth straight victory overall Thursday when they host No. 17 Louisville.
"We're a lot more mature than we have been in the past. A lot of guys in the past would've been like 'Oh we beat the (No. 11) team so we don't have to come out as hard this week.' We just all executed exactly what we needed to do," N.C. State defensive end Bradley Chubb told reporters following last weekend's 33-25 win over Syracuse. The victory gave the Wolfpack their first 2-0 start in the conference since 2006, leaving them as only one of two schools (Clemson) without a blemish in the ACC's Atlantic Division. In case his team needs any additional motivation on a short week, Doeren must only remind the Wolfpack of last season's 54-13 rout in which Louisville raced out to a 44-0 halftime advantage. The Cardinals have outscored a pair of overmatched opponents (Kent State and FCS foe Murray State) 97-13 since their demoralizing 47-21 setback to No. 2 Clemson on Sept. 16 and have won six of the seven meetings versus N.C. State, including all three since joining the ACC.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: Louisville opened as 3.5-point road favorites and that number dropped slightly to 3 on Thursday morning. The total hit the betting boards at 62 and jumped all of the way up to 65.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Louisville - OL C. Bentley (Questionable, Concussion), RB C. Wilson (Questionable, Knee), DL D. Bailey (Questionable, Ankle), WR J. Smith (Out Indefinitely, Wrist), RB J. Smith (Out For Season, Toe), CB J. Alexander (Out Indefinitely, Leg), WR D. Peete (Out For Season, Knee), RB D. Williams (Out For Season, Knee).
NC State - WR K. Harmon (Probable, Shoulder), S D. Wright (Probable, Groin), LB R. Nicholson (Questionable, Groin), DE D. Holden (Questionable, Upper Body), RB D. Nichols (Out For Season, Knee), DT D. Johnson (Out For Season, Lower Body), RB M. Braxton (Out For Season, Lower Body), CB J. Valdez (Out For Season, Knee), DB F. Phillips Jr. (Out For Season, Achilles), DB T. Meadows (Out Indefinitely, Personal), LB I. Moore (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), RB E. Collins (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), DE X. Lyas (Out Indefinitely, Suspension).
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, who is 13 yards away from becoming the seventh player in conference history to reach 10,000 total career yards, posted his program-best 16th 100-yard rushing game while also breaking Chris Redman's school mark (538) for career scoring (554) last time out. Dez Fitzpatrick finished with two touchdowns on four catches against Murray State and has scored six times on only 16 receptions, leaving him one TD catch shy of Arnold Jackson (1997) and Mario Urrutia (2005) for the most by a freshman receiver in school history. Preseason All-American cornerback Jaire Alexander, who suffered a knee injury in the season opener, practiced last week and is day-to-day, according to coach Bobby Petrino.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Junior quarterback Ryan Finley owns the longest active streak of consecutive attempts without an interception at 257, ranks 23rd in the nation in passing yards per game (280.6) and ninth in FBS in completion percentage (ACC-high 71.9). Nyheim Hines, a 5-9, 197-pound track All-American, has transitioned smoothly to running back after being used as a flex player in his first two seasons and ranks fifth in the conference in rushing (411 yards) after setting a career high in rushing yards in each of the last three weeks. Chubb leads the conference with league-best 12 tackles for loss after 3.5 last week, increasing his career total to 46 and moving him into second place in school history behind Mario Williams (55.5).
TRENDS:
* Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 10-3 in Cardinals last 13 conference games.
* Under is 16-1-1 in Wolfpack last 18 Thursday games.
CONSENSUS: The road favorite Cardinals are getting 68 percent of the action from users and the Over is picking up 60 percent of the totals wagers.
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