Friday 10-6-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Chris Jordan

My free pick for Friday is on the Boston Red Sox in the matinee game, and I want you listing Houston's Dallas Keuchel ONLY.

Look, I'm not going to get to deep into this, as there's one main reason you should be looking at the underdog in this game. Keuchel has been hands down garbage when facing the Crimson Hose.

In three career appearances, including two starts, against the Red Sox, he is 0-1 with a 9.88 ERA. Now he faces a team that ranked sixth in the league with 398 runs plated on the road, and hungry to avenge yesterday's loss.

Much different than facing Justin Verlander, as Keuchel is nearly as dominating, and him stepping to the hill gives the Red Sox a fighting chance.

Though I won't bother listing Drew Pomeranz, make note he was on the hill, and ended up being the pitcher of record, when the Red Sox clinched the American League East on Sept. 30, allowing one run on three hits, with three strikeouts, over six innings in a 6-3 victory over these same Astros. He won't be intimidated.

There are far too many trends to consider, both winning and losing on both sides of this game, it's a matter of finding the ones that fit your need. So for this argument, the Red Sox have won six of seven on the road and and four of the last five Pomeranz has started with a suitcase in hand.

And, Keuchel hasn't started a game since Sept. 26, which doesn't bode well since the Astros have lost six of eight when he's had nine or more days rest.

Take a shot with the underdog here.

5* RED SOX (Listing Keuchel ONLY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Oct 06 '17, 5:05 PM

MLB | Yankees vs Indians
Play on: Indians -1½ -105 at 5Dimes

Dave's Friday Free Play:

1* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-105)

The Key: Corey Kluber dominated in the postseason last year, going 4-1 with a 1.83 ERA in 6 starts. That success carried over into the regular season this year as Kluber went 18-4 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 29 starts, and 10-2 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 16 home starts. Kluber is 5-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts vs. New York. C.C. Sabathia is 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA in his last 3 starts against Cleveland. Take Cleveland on the Run Line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Sawyer

Oct 06 '17, 5:05 PM

MLB | Yankees vs Indians
Play on: Indians -218 at 5Dimes

Take the Cleveland Indians with the money-line versus the New York Yankees listing both starting pitchers Corey Kluber and C.C. Sabathia. Cleveland (103-60) won the opening game of this series last night with their 4-0 score — and they have then won 44 of their last 54 games after a win. The Indians have also won 36 of their last 52 home games against teams with a winning record. New York (92-72) has now lost 4 straight games against the Indians. And in their last 7 playoff games, the Yankees have lost 6 of these games. Take Cleveland with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Oct 06 '17, 10:30 PM

MLB | ARI vs LAD
Play on: OVER 7 -120

Free Pick on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER
Anytime Clayton Kershaw is on the mound the public will look to take the UNDER, but I think the value here in Game 1 of this NLDS is on the OVER. We have seen a number of how scoring games already in the postseason, as the ball continues to fly out of the park. Both of these teams are capable of eclipsing this total on their own.
Arizona is forced to send out Taijuan Walker, as they used up Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray in their Wild Card game Wednesday against the Rockies. Walker was just 9-9 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.328 WHIP in 28 starts and finished the season in poor form, posting a 5.27 ERA and 1.683 WHIP in his last 3 outings. The Dodgers should be able to get to Walker for a few runs and continue to add to their total once they get to Arizona's bullpen.
As for Kershaw, there's been something about the postseason that has made him vulnerable. He's just 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA in 14 starts (18 overall appearances). Arizona's offense is swinging a confident bat after putting up 11 in the Wild Card game and I look for them to push across a few runs here to send this well over the mark set by the books.
OVER is 4-1 in the Dodgers last 5 playoff home games and 4-1 in Kershaw's last 5 home starts against the Diamondbacks. Take the OVER!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

Connecticut (+14) over Memphis

My third-biggest college football bet last week was on Central Florida. It was an easy win as part of a 40-13 UCF blowout. Part of that bet was based on how good the Knights are. But part of it is on how bad Memphis is. And I have not seen anything from this team to make me think they should be laying two touchdowns on the road. This is a team that didn't beat FCS team Southern Illinois, at home, by more than two touchdowns. They also didn't beat UL-Monroe, also at home, by more than 10 points. So I think this line is out of whack, yet over 70 percent of the public is taking the Tigers. I know Connecticut is nothing great. But they played much better than the final suggests last week at SMU, and I see genuine improvement in this team. Connecticut is on an 0-9 ATS slide dating back to last year. This is the second-most points they have been catching in that time period. That tells me the books have been way off on this team and they are overcorrecting. I think Randy Edsall's team does enough to keep this one competitive against an overrated Memphis squad. I'm taking the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Raphael Esparza

Memphis / Connecticut Over 72

I know this total is a bit high, but Friday night in Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field we should see tons of points being scored. The Memphis Tigers come into this game cashing the OVER 3 out of their last 4 games, and their defense gives up and average 36.3 ppg. The Connecticut Huskies have cashed 3-straight OVER tickets, and here is another defense that gives up points of plenty as the Huskies 'D' is giving up an average of 42.6ppg their last 3 games. With both defenses playing some bad football, I see this game easily going OVER the total and I would grab this number now before the number moves to 73 or higher.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog

Chicago @ Washington
Pick: Chicago +1.5

The Chicago Cubs begin their quest to repeat as World Series Champions tonight in Washington. The pitching matchup in this one has Stephen Strasburg taking the hill for the Nationals, and he will go up against Kyle Hendricks. Both have had success against tonight's opponent as Hendricks has a career mark of 2-2 vs. Washington in five starts with a nifty 2.67 ERA. Strasburg has been equally impressive vs. Chicago where he has logged career numbers that are 1-1 in five starts with a 2.08 ERA. These numbers are basically a wash, so I look for this one to be played tight, and a one-run outcome either way appears to be the most likely, serving us with value on the plus side of the runline. The Nationals have won four times vs. the Cubs behind Strasburg, and three of the four wins have been by a single run.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts

Memphis / UConn Under 72.5

While evaluating reasons why Memphis should cover this game, I came to the realization that there were better reasons to side with the Under. This is a massive total and it's understood that they both allow more than 36 ppg, but I see the Memphis defense being able slow UConn just enough to keep it Under. I think the total should be closer to 66 so I feel there is some value.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Vegas/DALLAS Over 5½

We’re going to approach today’s small NHL card a little differently and play all three games over the total. What we’ve noticed in the preseason and the first two nights of the regular season is that there is a big emphasis on higher scoring games. It would appear to us that the refs have been put on notice to call everything. With very few exceptions, we’re seeing 12 to 15 minor penalties being called per game. The skill level, the speed and the talented playmakers and goal scorers has never been higher. Combine that with all those PP’s and the result is a ton of goals being scored.

5-4 games sell tickets while 2-0 games do not, at least to potential new fans. Americans love NBA, football and baseball and part of the reason is all the scoring. Soccer doesn’t sell in the US and the NHL gets less coverage in many US markets than the cooking channel. What those two games have in common is not enough goals being scored and Bettman is trying to change that. There is about to be an entirely new wave of NHL first-time watchers this year, as the NHL will be featured in Las Vegas. Gary Bettman wants to desperately sell this game in US markets and this is his latest attempt to do so. On opening night, three of the four games went over the total. Last night, six of eight games went over the total with one game being a push. Thus, 9 of 12 games have gone over the total with one game being a push. The totals are still at 5½ so the oddsmakers have not made adjustments yet. Expect to see more 6’s than 5½’s real soon and we’ll try to take advantage of it. Thus, we’ll put this same writeup in all three games tonight and expect the penalties and goals to keep coming.

Florida/TAMPA BAY Over 5½

We’re going to approach today’s small NHL card a little differently and play all three games over the total. What we’ve noticed in the preseason and the first two nights of the regular season is that there is a big emphasis on higher scoring games. It would appear to us that the refs have been put on notice to call everything. With very few exceptions, we’re seeing 12 to 15 minor penalties being called per game. The skill level, the speed and the talented playmakers and goal scorers has never been higher. Combine that with all those PP’s and the result is a ton of goals being scored.

5-4 games sell tickets while 2-0 games do not, at least to potential new fans. Americans love NBA, football and baseball and part of the reason is all the scoring. Soccer doesn’t sell in the US and the NHL gets less coverage in many US markets than the cooking channel. What those two games have in common is not enough goals being scored and Bettman is trying to change that. There is about to be an entirely new wave of NHL first-time watchers this year, as the NHL will be featured in Las Vegas. Gary Bettman wants to desperately sell this game in US markets and this is his latest attempt to do so. On opening night, three of the four games went over the total. Last night, six of eight games went over the total with one game being a push. Thus, 9 of 12 games have gone over the total with one game being a push. The totals are still at 5½ so the oddsmakers have not made adjustments yet. Expect to see more 6’s than 5½’s real soon and we’ll try to take advantage of it. Thus, we’ll put this same writeup in all three games tonight and expect the penalties and goals to keep coming.

N.Y. Islanders/COLUMBUS Over 5½

We’re going to approach today’s small NHL card a little differently and play all three games over the total. What we’ve noticed in the preseason and the first two nights of the regular season is that there is a big emphasis on higher scoring games. It would appear to us that the refs have been put on notice to call everything. With very few exceptions, we’re seeing 12 to 15 minor penalties being called per game. The skill level, the speed and the talented playmakers and goal scorers has never been higher. Combine that with all those PP’s and the result is a ton of goals being scored.

5-4 games sell tickets while 2-0 games do not, at least to potential new fans. Americans love NBA, football and baseball and part of the reason is all the scoring. Soccer doesn’t sell in the US and the NHL gets less coverage in many US markets than the cooking channel. What those two games have in common is not enough goals being scored and Bettman is trying to change that. There is about to be an entirely new wave of NHL first-time watchers this year, as the NHL will be featured in Las Vegas. Gary Bettman wants to desperately sell this game in US markets and this is his latest attempt to do so. On opening night, three of the four games went over the total. Last night, six of eight games went over the total with one game being a push. Thus, 9 of 12 games have gone over the total with one game being a push. The totals are still at 5½ so the oddsmakers have not made adjustments yet. Expect to see more 6’s than 5½’s real soon and we’ll try to take advantage of it. Thus, we’ll put this same writeup in all three games tonight and expect the penalties and goals to keep coming.

MLB Houston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

MEMPHIS -14.5 over Connecticut

Huskies have the unfortunate task of having to face a explosive Memphis team off their 1st loss and worst performance of the year. Connecticut has been abysmal all year beating only Division 2 Holy Cross straight up and going winless ATS. Memphis had been averaging 43 points per game before being shut down last week by Central Florida and should score at will against a husky defense that is allowing 45 points per game. Take the Tigers in a rout!