Sunday 10-8-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 8, 2017
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Preview: Jaguars at Steelers

Gracenote
Oct 5, 2017

The Pittsburgh Steelers are winning games but still don't have the kind of explosion on offense that they showed at times last season, and certain players are getting frustrated. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown will try to get on the same page when the Steelers host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

Pittsburgh earned a 26-9 win at rival Baltimore last week but spent most of their time during the week answering questions about Brown's tantrum on the sideline after Roethlisberger did not throw him the ball on a play in the second quarter. "AB is the best receiver in the world, maybe one of the best to ever play the game," Roethlisberger told 93.7 on his weekly radio show. "I'd like to think him and I together may be one of the best quarterback-wide receiver combos to ever play the game. I don't know he needs to react that way. He's superhuman on the football field, and when that happens, it almost brings him back to being a mere mortal, if you will. Because it gets in his head and it just messes with all of us a little bit. ... I'm not trying to call AB out. I just think this is causing a distraction that none of us really need." The Jaguars are trying to find some consistency after following up an impressive 44-7 win over the Ravens in London in Week 3 with a 23-20 overtime loss at the Jets. "Absolutely making progress," linebacker Paul Posluszny told ESPN.com. "You can just feel the attitude of the team, the feel of the team, the entire culture that's been established. We're definitely heading in the right direction. Now, we want to be better."

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Steelers -8. O/U: 42.5

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (2-2): Quarterback Blake Bortles exemplifies Jacksonville's inconsistency with five touchdown passes and no interceptions in two wins but two scoring passes and three picks in two losses. The 25-year-old completed just 15-of-35 passes in the 23-20 overtime loss at the Jets in Week 4 while posting a 52.1 rating, down from 128.2 in the London thumping of Baltimore. Bortles and the Jaguars have been leaning heavily on rookie running back Leonard Fournette, who is third in the NFL with 81 rushing attempts but is questionable this week with an ankle injury.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (3-1): Pittsburgh running back Le'Veon Bell leads the NFL with 87 rushing attempts and finally had a breakout game last week after a slow start, rumbling for 144 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries. The Steelers defense did not take as long to get in gear as the offense, and defensive end Cam Heyward was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week after recording two sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery at Baltimore. Heyward's unit is second in the NFL in total defense, surrendering an average of 267 yards.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Brown finished with a season-low four catches last week and has one touchdown reception on the season.

2. Jacksonville WR Marqise Lee (ribs), who is second on the team with 159 receiving yards, was held out of practice on Wednesday and is questionable.

3. Pittsburgh LB Ryan Shazier (shoulder) was limited in practice this week and is questionable.

PREDICTION: Steelers 31, Jaguars 17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Jacksonville at Pittsburgh

ATS TRENDS

Jacksonville

Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC. Jaguars are 19-44-2 ATS in their last 65 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Jaguars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5.

Pittsburgh

Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5. Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Steelers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Steelers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Steelers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October. Steelers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC. Steelers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

OU TRENDS

Jacksonville

Over is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games on grass. Over is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games following a straight up loss. Over is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games following a ATS loss. Over is 7-1 in Jaguars last 8 games in October. Over is 5-1 in Jaguars last 6 games in Week 5. Over is 6-2 in Jaguars last 8 games overall. Over is 10-4 in Jaguars last 14 vs. AFC. Over is 9-4 in Jaguars last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Pittsburgh

Under is 8-0 in Steelers last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games in Week 5. Under is 7-1 in Steelers last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Under is 13-2-1 in Steelers last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 7-2 in Steelers last 9 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 20-6 in Steelers last 26 games in October. Under is 20-7 in Steelers last 27 games overall. Under is 19-7-1 in Steelers last 27 games following a ATS win. Under is 24-9-1 in Steelers last 34 vs. AFC. Under is 10-4 in Steelers last 14 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 20-8 in Steelers last 28 games on grass. Under is 34-16-1 in Steelers last 51 games following a straight up win.

HEAD TO HEAD

Underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh. Jaguars are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, October 8, 2017
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California

Preview: Seahawks at Rams

Gracenote
Oct 5, 2017

It's been a long time since the Los Angeles Rams were on top of the NFC West, staring down at the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks will try to draw even in the division and reassert their status as the class of the NFC West when they visit the Rams on Sunday.

Seattle dropped two of its first three games -- with the lone win a 12-9 home triumph over the winless San Francisco 49ers -- but seemed to finally put everything together last week in the second half of a 46-18 drubbing of the Indianapolis Colts. "Well you can see it just built on each other," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll told reporters. "The energy was so high as we got going, and they just fed off each other. Everything started to click and go, and the pass rush was on fire. ... That was really fun to see." Los Angeles has been fun to see all season with an offense that leads the NFL in scoring at an average of 35.5 points under first-year head coach Sean McVay. "I think what good coaches do is they put their players in situations to have success, but ultimately those players are the ones that are making those plays," McVay told reporters. "You feel fortunate to be a part of that. I think the players have done a good job, but I also can't say enough about our coaching staff."

TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Rams -1. O/U: 46.5

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (2-2): Seattle got its running game going in last week's win over the Colts, rushing for 194 yards on 33 carries spread amongst five rushers. The Seahawks gave rookie Chris Carson 12 carries last week while making veteran Thomas Rawls a healthy scratch, but Carson underwent season-ending ankle surgery on Tuesday and Carroll plans to make Rawls a bigger part of the offense. "We haven't seen him in a while," Carroll told reporters of Rawls. "We haven't had a chance to see him on a regular basis, so this is a chance for him to re-enter. I'm really excited for him. He's in good shape, he has worked out hard. ... He's all fired up about it. He's healthy and he's real anxious, I can't wait to get him out there."

ABOUT THE RAMS (3-1): Los Angeles recorded 224 points last season -- the lowest total by an NFL team since 2012 -- and is already up to 142 in 2017 behind 2016 No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff and a new offense designed by McVay. Goff, who completed 54.6 percent of his passes and managed five TDs and seven interceptions in seven games under Jeff Fisher last season, is completing 66.7 percent of his passes with seven TDs and one pick for McVay. Running back Todd Gurley is taking on a bigger role in the offense and leads the team in both rushing (362 yards) and receiving (234).

EXTRA POINTS

1. Seahawks DE Cliff Avril (neck) was ruled out of Sunday's contest and could miss several weeks.

2. Los Angeles S LaMarcus Joyner (hamstring) did not practice this week.

3. Seattle WR Doug Baldwin (groin) and TE Jimmy Graham (ankle) were both full participants in Thursday's practice.

PREDICTION: Rams 35, Seahawks 31

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Seattle at L.A. Rams

ATS TRENDS

Seattle

Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 5. Seahawks are 23-6-2 ATS in their last 31 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Seahawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC. Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Seahawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games. Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Seahawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

L.A. Rams

Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 5. Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Rams are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Rams are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Rams are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. Rams are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games on grass. Rams are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Rams are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC. Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC West.

OU TRENDS

Seattle

Over is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Over is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 road games. Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Over is 12-5 in Seahawks last 17 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 9-4 in Seahawks last 13 games in Week 5.

L.A. Rams

Over is 6-0 in Rams last 6 games overall. Over is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Over is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Over is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 home games. Over is 6-0 in Rams last 6 games on grass. Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 vs. NFC. Over is 13-4 in Rams last 17 games in Week 5. Under is 6-2 in Rams last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 8-3 in Rams last 11 vs. NFC West. Under is 10-4 in Rams last 14 games following a ATS win. Under is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 13-6 in Rams last 19 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

HEAD TO HEAD

Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles. Underdog is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings. Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, October 8, 2017
Where: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, California

Preview: Ravens at Raiders

Gracenote
Oct 6, 2017

The Oakland Raiders and their sputtering offense aim to avoid a third consecutive loss when they host the equally inept Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. Oakland scored a total of 71 points in winning its first two games but has produced 10 in each of the last two contests - both on the road.

The state of affairs is even worse for the Raiders this week as EJ Manuel fills in for Derek Carr, who suffered a transverse process fracture in his back during last week's 16-10 loss at Denver and is expected to miss 2-to-6 weeks. However, the star quarterback was a limited participant in Thursday's practice and claims to be "very ahead of schedule," according to offensive tackle Donald Penn. Baltimore has been just as futile offensively of late, scoring a total of 16 points in back-to-back losses to Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. The Ravens also have struggled on the other side of the ball, allowing 70 points in the setbacks after yielding a total of 10 in victories over AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Cleveland.

TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Raiders -2.5. O/U: 39

ABOUT THE RAVENS (2-2): Joe Flacco has not performed well of late, going 39-of-67 for 263 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions over his last two games. He has had success against Oakland, however, passing for 1,023 yards and six TDs with only two picks in the last three meetings. Baltimore sorely misses nose tackle Brandon Williams, who is expected to miss his third straight game with a foot injury after watching the team allow 339 rushing yards in the previous two.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2-2): Carr's injury is yet another blow to a highly touted offense that was without Michael Crabtree last week due to a chest ailment and has received very little production from fellow receiver Amari Cooper and running back Marshawn Lynch. The latter rejoined the league after a year of retirement but has been less than spectacular, rushing for only 151 yards on 45 carries thus far. Manuel handled himself well in relief against Denver, completing 11-of-17 passes for 106 yards before throwing an interception on a late drive to seal the loss.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Raiders DE Khalil Mack has recorded four sacks in his last three games, including two versus Denver.

2. Baltimore T Austin Howard, who is among the top run blockers in the league, was released by the Raiders in July.

3. Cooper leads the league with seven dropped passes, according to ESPN.com.

PREDICTION: Ravens 24, Raiders 17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Baltimore at Oakland

ATS TRENDS

Baltimore

Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Ravens are 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS loss. Ravens are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. Ravens are 4-14-2 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up loss. Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. Ravens are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games in October. Ravens are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 5.

Oakland

Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss. Raiders are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.

OU TRENDS

Baltimore

Under is 8-1 in Ravens last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home. Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 games overall. Under is 4-1-1 in Ravens last 6 games following a straight up loss. Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 vs. AFC. Under is 7-3 in Ravens last 10 games in Week 5.

Oakland

Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games on grass. Over is 21-6-2 in Raiders last 29 home games. Over is 8-3-1 in Raiders last 12 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 5-2 in Raiders last 7 games in October. Under is 7-3-2 in Raiders last 12 games following a straight up loss. Under is 9-4-1 in Raiders last 14 games following a ATS loss.

HEAD TO HEAD

Home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL opening line report: Cowboys open as home faves in Week 5
Patrick Everson

“Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

Through the first four weeks of the season, Dallas still can’t seem to find the form it had during a 13-3 SU regular season in 2016. On Sunday, the Cowboys (2-2 SU and ATS) were in a dogfight throughout with the Los Angeles Rams and ultimately fell short 35-30 as a 5-point home favorite.

Green Bay got through the first month at 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS), with the only loss coming at defending NFC champion Atlanta. Last week in the Thursday nighter, the Packers bounced the Bears 35-14 as a 7.5-point chalk.

“This rivalry has renewed in great fashion the last few years, and this game will easily be our biggest handle of the season from a public perspective,” Cooley said of this 4:25 p.m. ET clash on Sunday. “Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4)

Much like Dallas, New England was dealt a stunning home loss in Week 4 and has now lost two of its three home games this season. The Patriots (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) tumbled to Carolina 33-30 as a 9-point fave, and now hit the road on a short week, playing in the Thursday night game.

Tampa Bay (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got a Nick Folk 34-yard field goal as time expired to edge the New York Giants 25-23, but the Bucs fell a tick short of covering as 2.5-point chalk Sunday.

“We’re expecting this number to inflate with the Patriots coming off a loss. But it’s doubtful it will grow to -5, and unlikely it will drop below -4,” Cooley said. “Our team was pretty consistent on this number and it feels right. Squares will think this is a steal spread, backing the Pats.”

As Cooley predicted, the number did bump up a tick later Sunday night, to Patriots -4.5.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Philadelphia is looking solid through four weeks, having already posted a pair of road victories. On Sunday at San Diego, the Eagles (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) held on for a 26-24 win as a 2-point underdog.

Arizona (2-2 SU) hasn’t covered in any of its four games this season. The Cardinals needed overtime Sunday in an offensive slog against San Francisco, winning 18-15 laying 6 points at home.

“My best guess is that this will climb a bit on the favorite side,” Cooley said. “Arizona is just not a good team, while we’ve been quite impressed with the Eagles, particularly in their road victories against decent competition. Some of our oddsmakers wanted this at -7.”

By late Sunday night, it was already trending that way, with Bookmaker.eu moving the Eagles to -6.5.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (no line)

Los Angeles is arguably one of the biggest surprises so far this season, getting out of the box 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) while piling up a ton of points. The Rams went into Dallas on Sunday as a 5-point pup, but came away with a 35-30 victory, getting six field goals from Greg Zuerlein.

Seattle finally showed signs of life on offense in the second half of the Week 4 Sunday night game. The Seahawks (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) scored 36 points over the final two frames against Indianapolis, rolling to a 46-18 victory laying 12.5 points at home. With Seattle in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu is waiting until Monday to post the line on Seahawks-Rams.

“Depending on how the Sunday night game goes, we’ll likely open Seattle as short chalk on the road,” Cooley said. “The Rams have surprised most, and the Seahawks haven’t exactly impressed in the early goings (prior to Sunday). That said, the public won’t think twice about backing the ‘Hawks at a favorable number.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 5 NFL lines are going to move

Green Bay is relishing a few extra days off after demolishing the Bears last Thursday, with about a dozen players nursing various injuries.

Game to bet on now

Buffalo at Cincinnati (-3)

The first-place Buffalo Bills. OMG. No, today is not Opposite Day - the Bills are actually in first place in the AFC for the first time since, well, maybe George Bush – the FIRST George Bush.

New England’s continued defensive struggles have created, at least, a temporary opening for the Bills and their long-suffering fans, and right now they’re taking full advantage. Through four games Buffalo has given up the fewest points in the league (less than 14 a game), and back-to-back wins over quality teams (Denver, at Atlanta) has raised hopes sky-high in western New York.

With the Patriots on a short week and the Bills on the move, things could get very interesting in the division for the first time in a long time.

Game to wait on

Green Bay at Dallas (-2.5)

This line opened at Dallas -1 at some books but the consensus was -2.5, which led to Green Bay backers jumping in with both feet. It has the look and a feel of a game whose line could melt a bit.

There might be an air of desperation in Dallas (even moreso than usual) as the Cowboys are 2-2 and still trying to figure things out. Certainly no one in the league had penciled in a home loss to the Rams when the schedule came out, but here we are. The Boys need to get rolling and fast, but the next four-game block includes this one, road games to each coast (San Francisco, Washington) with a home game against a solid KC team mixed in.

Green Bay is relishing a few extra days off after demolishing the Bears last Thursday, with about a dozen players nursing various injuries. Might be worth waiting for the injury report before betting this one.

Total to watch

Carolina at Detroit (43.5)

Is Cam Newton finally out of the box, or was Sunday’s 33-point burst just an example of another quarterback taking advantage of New England’s league-worst defense?

Newton’s Panthers had scored just 22 points total in their previous two games (New Orleans, Buffalo) but got out of the sick bed fast against the porous Patriots' D. Newton got the job done against New England despite two sacks, an interception and a fumble, which means the offense still has some cleanup work to do.

The Lions defense has been about average this season, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Carolina to put points on the board as it continues an October stretch of four road games in five weeks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5



Sunday, October 8

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LA CHARGERS (0 - 4) at NY GIANTS (0 - 4) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (3 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 3) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (2 - 2) at CLEVELAND (0 - 4) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 102-72 ATS (+22.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 89-62 ATS (+20.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (2 - 2) at MIAMI (1 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 4) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 3) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (2 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (3 - 1) at DETROIT (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 58-83 ATS (-33.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 131-170 ATS (-56.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (2 - 2) at LA RAMS (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 33-60 ATS (-33.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 40-65 ATS (-31.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
LA RAMS is 177-226 ATS (-71.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 177-226 ATS (-71.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-115 ATS (-46.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 127-178 ATS (-68.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 137-178 ATS (-58.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (2 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 74-101 ATS (-37.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-101 ATS (-37.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-101 ATS (-37.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (3 - 1) at DALLAS (2 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (4 - 0) at HOUSTON (2 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 5

Trend Report

Sunday, October 8

2:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Miami
Tennessee is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Miami is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games at home

2:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. INDIANAPOLIS
San Francisco is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games at home

2:00 PM
NY JETS vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games
NY Jets are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games
Cleveland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets

2:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CINCINNATI
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

2:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. NY GIANTS
Los Angeles is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Los Angeles

2:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. DETROIT
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Carolina
Detroit is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

2:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. PITTSBURGH
Jacksonville is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Jacksonville
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

2:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Arizona is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona

5:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. LOS ANGELES
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Los Angeles is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games when playing Seattle

5:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. OAKLAND
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Baltimore

5:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DALLAS
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home

9:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. HOUSTON
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 5

Sunday's games
Chargers (0-4) @ Giants (0-4)— Two desperate teams meet here; Chargers already have three losses by 3 or less points- they lost 24-21 at Denver in only road game. Since 2012, LA is 22-11-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Giants lost 27-24/25-23 the last two weeks; they’re running ball for only 59.3 yards/game, so all the pressure is on their passing game. Giants lost 24-10 to Detroit in their only home game; they’re 5-7 vs spread in last 12 games as a home favorite. Chargers won last three series games, by 22-1-23 points; their last loss to the Giants was in 1998. NFC East teams are 5-4 vs spread out of their division, 1-3 when favored. AFC West teams are 5-4 vs spread out of division, 3-0 as an underdog.

Bills (3-1) @ Bengals (1-3)— Buffalo allowed 13.5 ppg in its 3-1 start, giving up 4 TD’s on 4 drives; they were underdog in last 3 games. Bills are +6 in turnovers- they haven’t turned ball over in their last three games- three of the four games stayed under. Buffalo is 12-6-1 in last 19 games as a road underdog. Bengals won their first game LW; they led 21-7/21-0 at halftime last two weeks- they lost in OT at Green Bay in Week 3. Cincy scored 6 TD’s on 20 drives in last two games, after scoring no TD’s in first two games- -they won three of last four series games; road team won four of last five series games. Bills are 5-1 in last six visits here. AFC East teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division, 5-1 as an underdog. AFC North teams are 2-2 vs spread.

Jets (2-2) @ Browns (0-4)— Winless Browns are at home for 4th time in five weeks; they have worst red zone defense in NFL, allowing 6.38 pts/red zone drive, slightly worse than Green Bay. Browns are running ball for 89 yards/game- they’re only 15-53 on 3rd down, not unusual with a rookie QB playing. Jets won last two weeks; they ran ball for 256 yards LW. Under Bowles, Jets are 5-9-3 vs spread on road. Last 4+ years, Browns are 4-8 vs spread as a home favorite; they are 4-10 vs spread in last 14 games when favored. Jets won their last four games with Cleveland; they won 31-28 here LY, are 2-1 in last three visits here. AFC East teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division, 5-1 as an underdog. AFC North teams are 2-2 vs spread.

Jaguars (2-2) @ Steelers (3-1)— Jaguars ran ball for 155+ yards in 3 of 4 games; they’re 7 for last 27 on 3rd down, completed only 15-35 passes LW. Jags averaged 7.5/7.4 ypa in their two wins, 5.9/3.8 in their losses. Jaguars are 6-3 in last nine games as a road underdog. Steelers (-8.5) beat Minnesota in their only home game; they’ve held all four opponents under 5.0 ypa this year, last three under 4.0. Since 2012, Pitt is 20-12 vs spread as a home favorite; they’ve allowed 23 points, scored 7 on 28 opponents’ drives that started 75+ yards from goal line. Pitt won last three series games, by 5-4-8 points, since Jaguars beat them in ’07 playoffs. Jaguars are 5-2 in last seven visits to Steel City. AFC South non-divisional home dogs are 3-2 vs spread.

Titans (2-2) @ Dolphins (1-2)— Miami is finally home after games in LA-NJ-London, thanks to Hurricane Irma; in their last two games, Dolphins have one TD, no FGA’s on 20 drives- they went 2-20 on 3rd down in their two losses, but scored only one TD in the win, too. Fish are 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a home underdog. Tennessee lost 57-14 LW in a game they were favored to win; Titans scored 37-33 points in its two wins- they went 3/out on 15 of last 25 drives, allowed 26+ points in 3 of 4 games. Tennessee is 1-3-1 in last five games as a road favorite. Teams split last ten meetings; Titans won 37-3/30-17 in last two visits to Miami. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 5-1 vs spread; AFC South teams are 4-4.

49ers (0-4) @ Colts (1-3)— 49ers didn’t score a TD in 3 of their 4 games; they scored 39 in the other game, but lost all four, last three by 3-2-3 points- Niners are 8-12 in last 20 games as a road underdog, but are 2-0 this year. Indy was tied 18-18 in Seattle Sunday, then got outscored 21-0 over a 5:56 span; they’ve split two home games this year, with both games decided by a FG. Colts are favored for first time this year; over last 2+ years, they’re 5-7 as a home favorite- under is 12-6 in their last 18 home games. Colts won last three series games, by 25-4-20 points; teams split four meetings played here. AFC South non-divisional home teams are 3-1 vs spread. NFC West teams are 3-7 vs spread outside their division, 1-4 when getting points.

Cardinals (2-2) @ Eagles (3-1)— Arizona is 2-2, with shaky wins by FG each over Colts/49ers, when they allowed a total of one TD- they gave up 8 offensive TD’s in losses to Lions/Dallas; Cardinals have run ball for only 57 ypg. Redbirds are 1-4 in last five games as a road underdog. Philly is 3-1, winning their last two games by total of 5 points; they beat Giants 27-24 (-6) in their only home game, kicking 61-yard FG on last play. Eagles are 4-6 in last 10 games as a home favorite; they ran ball for 193-214 yards in last two games, have converted 30-59 on 3rd down this season.NFC East teams are 1-3 as a non-divisional favorite; NFC West dogs are 1-4. Arizona won five of last six games with Philly, winning 40-17 in last visit here two years ago.

Panthers (3-1) @ Lions (3-1)— Detroit is already +9 (11-2) in turnovers this year; they’ve won field position in all 4 games, three by 5+ yards. Lions are 12-4-3 as a home favorite under Caldwell, 1-0 this season. Carolina didn’t allow a TD in winning their first two games; they gave up 7 TD’s on 19 drives in last two games, but upset Patriots 33-30 LW to get to 3-1. Panthers are 8-1 vs spread in last nine games as a road underdog. Under is 3-1 in their four games. LW was first time they gained more than 288 yards in a game this year. Carolina is 5-2 against the Lions, splitting part of visits here, last of which was in 2011. NFC North non-divisional home teams are 6-2 vs spread; NFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside their division.

Seahawks (2-2) @ Rams (3-1)— Seattle lost its first two road games by 8-6 points; they’re 11-7-5 in last 23 games as a road underdog. Seahawks scored 8 TD’s on 23 drives in last two games, after scoring one TD the first two weeks. 3-1 Rams are favored over Seattle for just 4th time in last 27 meetings. LA won three of last four series games, which lost last three series road games, by 2-3-6 points. Rams lead NFL in scoring thru four weeks, scoring 12 TD’s with 14 FGs in four games, plus two TD’s by the defense- they scored 35+ points in their three wins, were held to 20 in only loss (27-20) vs Redskins. LA defense gave up 385+ yards in each of last three games; opponents were 16-32 on 3rd down in last two games.

Ravens (2-2) @ Raiders (2-2)— Oakland QB Carr (back fracture) is out 2-6 weeks; EJ Manuel is Raiders’ new QB- he is 6-11 as an NFL starter, losing last five starts- his last win was in 2014. Oakland lost last two games, scoring two TD’s on 24 drives, with 15 3/outs. Ravens were +7 in turnovers in their two wins, then lost last two games by combined 70-16, scoring two TDs with six turnovers (-5) on 24 drives. Raiders won their last two games vs Baltimore, 37-33/28-27, after losing 7 of previous 8 series games. Teams split four meetings played here. Lot of travel for Ravens, who were in London two weeks ago, then didn’t have bye week after, and are now on west coast- 3 of their 4 games for both teams have stayed under the total.

Packers (3-1) @ Cowboys (2-2)— Green Bay won six of last seven series games, beating Dallas in playoffs two of last three years; they won 37-36/34-31 in last two visits here- their last loss in Dallas was in ‘07. Packers have already used 3 LT’s and 3 RT’s, is amazing they’re 3-1. Pack is 28-57 on 3rd down despite running for only 74.5 ypg, a credit to Rodgers’ greatness. Cowboys allowed 42-35 points in two losses, 3-17 points in two wins; they’re 8-18 vs spread in last 26 games as non-divisional home favorites. Last week was first time Green Bay led at halftime this year; Packers are 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as road underdogs, 8-15 vs spread in last 23 games on artificial turf. Green Bay’s last three games all went over the total. Packers’ RB Montgomery has multiple broken ribs, will likely sit this one out.

Chiefs (4-0) @ Texans (2-2)— Short week for Chiefs, who won/covered their first four games, scoring 14 TD’s on 42 drives- they haven’t turned ball over in their last 3 games. KC is 12-2 vs spread as a road favorite under Reid- they ran ball for 168+ yards in 3 of their 4 games, are tied with Raiders for best (5.67 ppp) red zone offense in NFL. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Texan games this year; Houston scored 90 points in last two games behind rookie QB Watson, who is 2-1 as a starter. Texans scored a defensive TD in each of last two games, and also averaged 8.3/7.6 ypa; they’re 3-4 as a home underdog under O’Brien. KC is 5-4 in series games, 4-3 in Houston. AFC West teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division; AFC South teams are 4-4 vs spread outside their division.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 5
Monty Andrews

Le'Veon Bell broke out in a big way last week, racking up 186 total yards and two touchdowns. He faces a Jags team that allows more than 165 rushing yards per game on a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5, 43.5)

Jaguars' dreadful run D vs. LeVeon Bell's awesomeness

After playing three of their first four games on the road, the Pittsburgh Steelers enjoy a nice stretch of home cooking - beginning with Sunday afternoon's showdown with the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars. Ben Roethlisberger and the rest of the Steelers' offense is still finding its footing early in the season, but comes into this one with a 3-1 record - and a significant advantage when it comes to their run game, if last week's strategy is any indication.

A lot of attention has been paid to the Jaguars' offense, which was a major question mark following Blake Bortles' terrible preseason and a season-ending injury to top receiver Allen Robinson. Yet, while the team has put up an impressive 109 points through four games, it's the run defense that has been a significant issue. Jacksonville is surrendering more than 165 rushing yards per game on a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry with five touchdowns against; the Jags gave up just 3.8 YPC last season.

The Steelers finally gave their bellcow back, Le'Veon Bell, a workload commensurate with his ability in last week's 26-9 rout of the Baltimore Ravens - and Bell broke out in a big way, racking up 186 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. He's averaging just 3.7 YPC on the season, but missed all of training camp due to a contract dispute and is just now hitting his stride. If the Jags' run defense continues to allow big runs, Bell and the Steelers could be in for a very big day.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 44)

Panthers' aversion to penalties vs. Lions' lousy discipline

It's a battle of division leaders at Ford Field this Sunday as the Lions host the Panthers in a showdown of 3-1 teams. The Panthers are coming off a stunning 33-30 win over the defending-champion Patriots at Foxboro, while the Lions ground out a 14-7 road win over Minnesota last weekend. Discipline could be a major factor in this one, with Carolina among the league's best at avoiding flags - and Detroit at the other end of the spectrum as we enter Week 5.

Carolina has been the class of the league when it comes to discipline, picking up just 13 flags through four games - the fewest in the NFL. Only Tampa Bay has garnered fewer than Carolina's 118 penalty yards against, and the Buccaneers have only played three games. The Panthers' plus-10 net penalty count ranks second in the league, and they rank fourth in net penalty yards (65). Even more impressively: Carolina has just two combined flags in its previous two games.

The Lions should consider themselves fortunate to be 3-1 at this stage of the season considering how undisciplined they've been so far. Detroit has been penalized 31 times for a whopping 308 yards against, the third-highest total in the league. That includes 139 penalty yards on offense, behind only the Steelers. It's no surprise, then, that the Lions rank second from the bottom in net penalty yards with -125 - and a similar performance this weekend could spell trouble for the hosts.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+1, 47)

Chiefs' poor pass protection vs. Texans' tough pass rush

The Chiefs are the only remaining unbeaten team through four weeks - and they'll be in tough to keep their spotless record as they draw the Texans in Houston this weekend. The Texans are coming off a 57-14 annihilation of Tennessee, evening their record and moving them into a tie with the Jaguars and Titans atop the AFC South. Yet, for as much attention as the Houston offense garnered last week, it's the Texans' elite pass rush that could help the home side hand Kansas City its first loss.

Alex Smith has been his efficient best through four games - completing 76 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions - but has also had to deal with a leaky offensive line that has allowed 16 sacks so far this season, third-most in the NFL. Smith has been sacked on 11.7 percent of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL. The Kansas City run game has helped take some of the focus away, but make no mistake - Smith has spent a lot of time on the ground.

Houston will be happy to oblige this weekend; the Texans have produced a sack on 8.3 percent of opponent dropbacks so far this season, good for seventh in the league. That pass pressure has also helped contribute to Houston's four interceptions, tied for sixth-most league-wide. Combine that with the Texans' league-leading seven forced fumbles, and it could be a long afternoon for Smith and the rest of the Kansas City offense.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3, OFF)

Vikings' drive-extending success vs. Bears' third-down D woes

There's plenty of hype surrounding this week's Monday night tilt between the Vikings and the host Bears, with Chicago finally starting No. 2 pick Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback. Yet, while it's difficult to know what fans and bettors alike can expect from the rookie signal caller, it should be a little easier to spot a significant edge the Vikings have coming into this one - and if they can exploit it, that could give them the edge to escape with a pivotal NFC North road victory.

Minnesota could have Sam Bradford back under center this week - and while that's great news for the offense, substitute Case Keenum has performed admirably in Bradford's absence. Together, they have the Vikings ranked fifth in the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 46.2 percent - behind only Carolina, Philadelphia, Green Bay and Denver. It's a considerable improvement from the 38.0-percent third-down success rate Minnesota boasted last season.

The Bears are one of only two teams in the NFC to have allowed more than 100 points so far - and they can "credit" their woeful showing on third downs for part of that. Chicago is allowing opponents to score or extend drives on better than 47 percent of their third-down situations - the third-worst mark in football, and a major drop from last season's 40.5-percent conversion rate. Those extra plays could mean the difference in what is expected to be a closely-contested affair.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 5 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

The Buffalo Bills are a perfect 4-0 ATS and getting three points from oddsmakers visting the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday.

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 55.5)

Taking everything into account, a general statement about both teams comes to New England not really being a good team right now and Tampa Bay not being that bad of a team.

Offshores sent this out at Patriots -4.5 and by Tuesday afternoon the line had already hit -6 Even on the strip in Las Vegas. Personally, I liked the offshore opener and thought that to be very fair. I’m not sure what the early money sees in a New England team that can’t stop anyone from a defensive perspective. Losers of two of three games at home, though the Pats have scored mightily themselves, their defense has allowed 42, 20, 33 and 33 points in succession.

With that kind of swiss cheese defense, it seems that bettors can take full advantage of this weak link in the New England chain and capitalize further with this early growing number. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs scored a nice victory in this spot straight up.

With the fast, early movement on the road favorites, Tampa Bay backers may want to wait to see if their local bookmakers continue to beef up the Patriots number in keeping up with the Joneses. Nothing like going against a team that’s in “due factor” mode in the eyes of line changing money. Somehow, I don’t think this is the Patriots’ year. Early recognition of this will put more cash in your pocket than taking it out. Wait to see where this peaks then take the home dog for best value.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 39)

This game opened Bengals -3 and remained at that level for a good three days now. I had this closer to a pick’em and I can’t for the life of me figure out what is going on with this game.

Cincinnati had shown next to nothing in its first three games sporting an 0-3 record with minimal offense to speak of. I put little credence in the Bengals’ win over hapless Cleveland and can’t believe it had any motivational force to the oddsmakers who made this line.

What’s not to like about the Bills right now? Their offense has been rejuvenated the past two games. Their defense continues to dominate everyone they have faced so far. They conceivably could have beaten the Panthers in their only loss and stand at 4-0.

If I’m totally wrong in this game, I still think the +3 is a definite value play. Buffalo has played toe-to-toe with the likes of Carolina, Denver and Atlanta the past three weeks. Cincinnati does not appear to be on the same level with those teams at this point. Both have gone 1-3 Over/Under in their four games and this one doesn’t have the look of a high-scoring affair with that 39-point total. In this close one, the value is taking the points and bonus on the key three.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 47)

This game opened with the Rams spotting a deuce but was immediately taken by Seahawks backers. I kind of liked the offshore number myself and then some. I made this Rams -2.5, so I’m at an even larger gap in my opinion. I’m not sure if Seattle money just loved the fact that the Seahawks looked so great against the woeful Colts and thought that would continue against a better team.

The Rams have been an offensive dynamo so far, racking up scores of 46, 20, 41 and 35 in their first four games. They appear to be able to hang with whoever comes their way. Seattle is 2-2 and it hasn’t really played the toughest schedule.

With a 47 as a total in this game, there’s an expectation that scoring will be high. I’m not sure Seattle can keep up with the Rams at this point in the season if this gets to be a score fest. At -1.5 all you’re asking either team to do is win the game. That being the case, such a low number on the better team seems to be a good value play.

Returning home after a big win in Dallas, the Rams may even have a home-field advantage if enough people come to watch. If you think the Seahawks have suddenly turned things around, take the points ASAP before this line goes down any further.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Sunday, October 8

LA Chargers @ NY Giants

Game 451-452
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
127.558
NY Giants
132.377
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 5
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
45
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-3); Under

Buffalo @ Cincinnati

Game 453-454
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
136.995
Cincinnati
135.059
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
39
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+3); Over

NY Jets @ Cleveland

Game 455-456
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
123.218
Cleveland
128.765
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 5 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 1
39
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+1); Over

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh

Game 457-458
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
129.932
Pittsburgh
142.389
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 12 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-8); Under

Tennessee @ Miami

Game 459-460
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
128.479
Miami
120.492
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 8
29
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
N/A

San Francisco @ Indianapolis

Game 461-462
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
126.618
Indianapolis
122.061
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 4 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 2
44
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+2); Over

Arizona @ Philadelphia

Game 463-464
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
133.219
Philadelphia
132.520
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 6 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+6 1/2); Over

Carolina @ Detroit

Game 465-466
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
136.795
Detroit
134.632
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 2 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+2 1/2); Over

Seattle @ LA Rams

Game 467-468
October 8, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
134.433
LA Rams
129.405
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 5
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 1 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+1 1/2); Over

Baltimore @ Oakland

Game 469-470
October 8, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
123.823
Oakland
132.383
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 8 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 2 1/2
39
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-2 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ Dallas

Game 471-472
October 8, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
131.998
Dallas
136.682
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 4 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-2); Under

Kansas City @ Houston

Game 473-474
October 8, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
147.926
Houston
138.588
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 9 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
Pick
47
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #8 - BELMONT PARK - 4:46 PM EASTERN POST
Flower Bowl Stakes
10.0 FURLONGS INNER TURF GRADE I FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $500,000.00 PURSE

#1 GRAND JETE
#4 ZHUKOVA
#3 DACITA
#6 GUILTY TWELVE

This race honors the career of Flower Bowl, who certainly was an outstanding broodmare. Bred and raced by Isabel Dodge Sloane's Brookmeade Stable, she was out of the mare Flower Bed and sired by the unraced British stallion Alibhai, who became a significant sire in the United States of other good runners such as 1954 Kentucky Derby winner Determine, the 1958 American Champion Older Female Horse Bornastar, plus Your Host and Traffic Judge, among others. Conditioned for racing by U.S. Racing Hall of Fame trainer Preston Burch, Flower Bowl was an excellent runner at longer distances. She notably won the then richest race for female horses, the 10.0 furlongs Delaware Handicap, and then the 12.0 furlong Ladies Handicap at Belmont Park. Here in the 40th running of The Bowl, #1 GRAND JETE, a British bred entry, is the overall speed and pace profile leader, and has hit the board in each of her last four outings, winning three times in this recent streak of racing consistency, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 3rd race back. Jockey Javier Castellano and Trainer Chad Brown send her to the post for the "Sunday Feature" ... they've hit the board with 58% of more than 260 entries saddled as a team to date. #4 ZHUKOVA, who was bred in Ireland, has produced a trio of "POWER RUNS" in her last five outings overall, winning twice, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 3rd race back.