Service Plays Saturday 10/14/17

[Nashville1]

Dom Chambers

Friday play ...

My 40 Dime play is on the Chicago Blackhawks over the Nashville Predators. As I look at the sports books in Las Vegas at 6:00 am eastern time, the Blackhawks are -135.

ANALYSIS

When this season's schedule was laid out, I can assure you that the Chicago Blackhawks circled this date with the Nashville Predators in BOLD RED, as it was the Preds who not only knocked Chicago out of the postseason last April, but did so in convincing fashion!

Nashville was the heavy underdog and yet they swept ALL 4 off of Chicago, outscoring the Blackhawks 13-3 with Pekka Rinne recording back-to-back shutouts in the first 2 games.

Safe to assume that Coach Q and his staff watched plenty of video on the Predators style of play that effectively reduced the 'Hawks to House League status.

Expect Chicago to come out humming, as they have already scored 23 goals through their first 5 games, going 3-1-1. Nashville is starting to find a bit of a rhythm with back-to-back home wins their past 2 games, but Peter Laviolette's team is 0-2 on the road thus far, and they have scored just 3 goals in those 2 road losses.

Revenge time for Chi-Town on Saturday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JH-Sportsline

NCAAF GOM
GT +6.5

[Nashville1]

Tommy Brunson

60 Dime - Michigan State Spartans

TODAY'S RELEASE

My Saturday release is a 60 Dime play on the Michigan State Spartans against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. At 7:00 am eastern time, the Spartans are -4 point favorites. I advise buying the half-point down on Michigan State if your line is anywhere from -3 to -4 1/2 points.

TODAY'S ANALYSIS

The sneaky, surging Spartans travel to Minnesota after impressive defensive wins against Big 10 Elites: a win at home, 17-10 to Iowa followed by the 14-10 upset win at The Big House last weekend over Michigan. It should be noted that Coach Dantonio has not allowed his team to letdown after playing Michigan, as Sparty stands at 6-2 against the spread since 2009 in games following playing the Wolverines.

Meanwhile, the slowly, sinking Minnesota Gophers’ row boat is taking on water. The Golden Gophers have lost their last pair to perennial Big 10 "Doormats", Purdue and Maryland.

Gophers are just 2-6 ATS last 8 Home games.

In this series, the visitor is 5-1 ATS last 6 games played.

State is quietly 4-1 ATS this season, while Minny is just 2-3 ATS this year.

Brian Lewerke has been a real find under center for Michigan State, completing 61% of his passes for over 1,000 yards, 9 TDs, and only 2 picks.

This is the first series meeting since the 2013 season, and right now the check-marks on "who has the advantage" are all checked off on the Sparty side of the chart.

Michigan State to keep on rolling. Lay it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LEE STERLING

(35 Units) Northern Illinois -4.5 at 3:30 PM ET
(30 Units) Tulsa +14 at 4:00 PM ET
(30 Units) Utah State -3 at 4:30 PM ET
Kansas +22.5 -7 at 12:00 Noon ET
Northwestern -3.5 at 3:30 PM ET
Navy +3.5 at 3:45 PM ET
Michigan State -4 at 8:00 PM ET

[havoc3011]

Millerlocks

12:00 PM EST NCAAF EASTERN MICHIGAN VS. ARMY PICK: EASTERN MICHIGAN +5.5 (-110) RISK: 11 UNITS 12:00 PM EST NCAAF FLORIDA STATE VS. DUKE PICK: DUKE +7 (-105) RISK: 11 UNITS 12:00 PM EST NCAAF TCU VS. KANSAS STATE PICK: KANSAS STATE +7 (-115) RISK: 11 UNITS 3:30 PM EST NCAAF OKLAHOMA VS. TEXAS PICK: TEXAS +9.5 (-110) RISK: 11 UNITS 3:30 PM EST NCAAF GEORGIA TECH VS. MIAMI FLORIDA PICK: GEORGIA TECH +6.5 (-110) RISK: 11 UNITS 7:30 PM EST NCAAF MISSOURI VS. GEORGIA PICK: GEORGIA -29.5 (-110) RISK: 11 UNITS 8:00 PM EST NCAAF MICHIGAN STATE VS. MINNESOTA PICK: MINNESOTA +4 (-110) RISK: 11 UNITS 10:30 PM EST NCAAF BOISE STATE VS. SAN DIEGO STATE PICK: BOISE STATE +6.5 (-105) RISK: 11 UNITS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL Teacher

Tampa Bay Lightning - St. Louis Blues : Over 5.5

Montreal Canadiens - Toronto Maple Leafs : Over 5.5

[Nashville1]

Mathew Parker

Saturday Selection ...

25 dime Play
COLLEGE FOOTBALL


Memphis Tigers


Price (-3 1/2) If line is anywhere from 2 1/2 to 4 I advise a 1/2 point buy down.

[Nashville1]

Brandon Lang

Saturday selection ...

My 80 Dime Winner is on Texas over Oklahoma. The current line on this game at 8:00 am eastern is +9 in Vegas and offshore. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.

ANALYSIS

Like Syracuse last night, I will be very surprised if they don't win the game.


Off their big OT win over Kansas State, the Texas Longhorns enter this game on a 4-game ATS winning streak since their opening week loss to Maryland.


Now they face their rival at home where the home team has covered the last 4 in this series.


Furthermore, Texas coach Tom Herman is as good an underdog coach as their is in the country going 6-0 ATS his last 6 when getting points going back to his 2015.


This year he has been a dog once, at USC and getting 17 points almost won the game outright losing 27-24 in OT.


Texas is playing their best ball of the year, they are confident and they are right where they want to be heading into this game today.


As for Oklahoma, they have no defense as evidenced by the 41 points at Baylor and the 38 points they gave up at home to Iowa State.


The same Iowa State team that at home 3 weeks ago against this very same Texas team was held to season low in yards and points in the 17-7 loss.


I get this is a rivalry game and I get Oklahoma beat Ohio State earlier in the year but the problems they have on the defensive side of the football can't be fixed in a week.


Think about that. 41 points at Baylor. We have to get better. Next week 38 points at home to Iowa State. What happened to getting better?


Bottom line you don't lose outright at home as a 31 point favorite and bounce back that quick. You have now been exposed and your weaknesses exploited.


At the end of the day Texas has all the momentum in the world, they are at home and Tom Herman knows how to coach this team up when an underdog.


It wouldn't surprise me if Texas shocked the world today.

[Onehunglow]

Root

Perfect- Florida
Inner Circle(big10 GOM)- Minnesota
Pinnacle(shocker GOY)- LSU

[bmd1803]

Stephen Nover's CFB Money Line Moneymaker
Rutgers vs Illinois

Illinois -135



It's not too much to ask Illinois to beat the worst team in the Big Ten, Rutgers, at home. The Scarlet Knights haven't won a road game, after all, since November of 2015. The Illini hold a talent edge on the Scarlet Knights. Illinois has been derailed by quarterback turnovers. I don't see that being as much of an issue against this caliber of opponent especially at home. Rutgers has scored a combined 44 points in its last four games - all losses - against Purdue, Eastern Michigan, Nebraska and Ohio State.

Add

Stephen Nover's All-Access CFB Pass

2* Kansas +22.5 (-110)


Kansas has lost 42 straight road games. I'm not asking the Jayhawks to win here. They just don't have to lose by more than three touchdowns. Kansas actually has covered five of its last six Big 12 Conference games. But I'm banking more on a huge letdown from Iowa State. That certainly would be understandable after the Cyclones stunned then third-raked Oklahoma, 38-31, on the road last Saturday. That was one of the biggest wins in Iowa State history. The Cyclones aren't good enough to celebrate all week and then beat Kansas by more than three touchdowns. Iowa State only beat Kansas, 31-24, on the road last season. Before upsetting Oklahoma, the Cyclones had lost two of three, both at home.


Baylor/Oklahoma St
2* Under 68.5 (-110)
Baylor is way down this season ranking 103rd in rushing. The combination of this and a large total and extreme weather conditions put me on the Under.
There is expected to be heavy winds about to 30 mph. This obviously is going to affect the passing game of both teams forcing
more running plays.


New Mexico St/ Georgia Southern
2* Over 57.5 (-110)

Georgia Southern has allowed 95 points in its last two games against Indiana and Arkansas State. New Mexico State ranks in the top 30 in yardage and has the offense and quarterback in Tyler Rogers to put up a lot of points against such a weak defense. The Aggies have trouble stopping the run, though, ranking 99th in run defense. Georgia Southern can run the ball with its triple option offense.


Ohio St/Nebraska
2* Under 58.5 (-110)
Ohio State has a top-10 defense surrendering fewer than 16 points a game. I don't see Tanner Lee and the Nebraska offense doing much against the Buckeyes.
Nebraska's defense had been playing better before getting blown out by Wisconsin last week. Prior to that game, the Cornhuskers had held held Northern Illinois, Rutgers and Illinois to a combined 44 points. Another big key here is there is a strong wind factor with gusts around 20 mph. This could mean a lot of extra running.


2* Minnesota +4.5 (-110)
This spot sets up great for Minnesota. The Gophers opened the season going 3-0 in P.J. Fleck's first year with the school. But Minnesota has lost its first two Big Ten games laying an egg against Maryland and then blowing a fourth quarter lead against Purdue on the road last week. So this is a huge stop-the-pain game for Fleck and the Gophers. They catch Michigan State on the road a second straight week and off a victory against arch-rival Michigan last Saturday. Michigan State was a two-touchdown 'dog in that game. Can you say letdown for the Spartans? I can. It's the first time the Spartans are playing outside of Michigan. Minnesota should draw a huge crowd as this is a night game. The Spartans were a road favorite three times last season. They not only failed to cover each of those games, but lost straight-up. The Gophers hold a key edge on the Spartans in passing and pass defense. Minnesota is averaging nearly three yards more per completion than Michigan State and its defense is giving up 2.3 fewer yards on pass completions.


3* New Mexico +2 (-110)

Fresno State went 1-11 last season and 3-9 two years ago. But now there actually is bowl talk surrounding the Bulldogs. Why is this? Because Fresno State is 2-0 in the Mountain West Conference. The Bulldogs are improved from last season. But let's not jump ahead of ourselves with this team. Fresno State's two conference victories have been against Nevada and San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the country. Nevada is way down, too, this season. Fresno State shouldn't be favored against New Mexico. The Lobos had a bye last week. They rolled past Air Force, 56-38, two weeks ago in their last game. The Lobos put up 509 yards on just 50 offensive snaps against Air Force. I don't see Fresno State being able to handle New Mexico's unique option schemes. Look for the Bulldogs to get exposed here.


Nevada/Colorado St
2* Over 64 (-110)


Nevada finally got its offense going last week beating Hawaii, 35-21. The Wolf Pack could do some damage against an average Colorado State pass defense that has allowed opponents to complete 61 percent of their throws. The Rams also are vulnerable on special teams having given up two return touchdowns. But what's going to put this game Over the total is Colorado State's offense. The Rams average 506.2 yards a game, which is best in the Mountain West and 14th in the nation. The Rams average more than 33 points a game. Quarterback Nick Stevens has thrown for 1,871 yards, sixth-best in the country. He has a tremendous receiver in Michael Gallup. Nevada isn't going to be able to stop this combination. I expect Nevada to fall behind early and thus play at a fast tempo, which is their style. Given Colorado State's outstanding offense and a fast tempo, look for this game to go Over.


Boise St/San Diego St
2* Over 46 (-110)

This isn't too high of a total for these two teams to go Over considering their respective skill position talent.
Boise State has a balanced attack, while San Diego State boasts one of the best running backs in the country, Rashaad Penny. He's rushed for triple digits in his last six games. The Aztecs also have been getting solid production from quarterback Christian Chapman.
The over has cashed 14 of the last 20 times Boise State has played on the road.

[bmd1803]

Stephen Nover's NHL Totals Crusher

Maple leafs/Canadiens
2* Over 5.5 (-121)
Playing the Maple Leafs Over the total is getting to be mandatory especially when the oddsmaker opens their over/under at less than 6. Great young offensive talent, an in-your-face up-tempo style and a mistake-prone defense make Toronto a perfect Over team. Each of the Maple Leafs' four games have gone Over. The least amonnt of goals scored in any of these four games was seven goals. Now we have a Toronto-Montreal matchup. The oddsmaker has opened this total at less than 6 because the Canadiens rank second-to-last in goals and have 2015 Hart and Vezina Trophy winner Carey Price in goal. I still see this one going Over. Let's start with the Maple Leafs equation first. Toronto has scored 22 goals, an average of 5.5 per game. That's the best in the league. The Maple Leafs also take the most shots per game and have the second-best power play in the NHL. Price wasn't nearly as good last season as he was in 2015. He hasn't been that sharp this season either giving up nine goals on the last 64 shots he's faced. Montreal can take advantage of Toronto's defensive weakness. Frederik Andersen hasn't been that sharp in goal either for Toronto with a save percentage of .871. The key here is that the Canadiens are going to skate with Toronto rather than go into a defensive shell. This quote from Canadiens coach Claude Julien is telling: "...if you plan on playing on your heels against that team (Maple Leafs) they'll eat you alive, so we are going to be on our toes. It's going to be us pushing them back with our speed, hopefully, and playing with a little bit more engery."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merril

Saturday, Oct. 14

NCAA Football

(3% play) LSU +7/+7.5 (vs. Auburn) - 3:30 pm ET (time-change) (CBS) #208

-Auburn has scored 144 total points in their last three games against terrible teams and defenses
-the Tigers were 3.5-point home underdogs vs. LSU last season; now 7.5-point road favorites
-only road game against a competent defense resulted in a 14-6 loss at Clemson

-LSU returns home off a 17-16 win at Florida; strong effort after losing their last home game
-offense is averaging 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.5 yards per play
-Tigers’ defense is giving up just 18.8 points per game on 5.0 yards per play

Play LSU (+) as a 3% play.

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(3% play) MINNESOTA +4 (vs. Michigan State) - 8:00 pm ET (BTN) #210

-Michigan State off their big rivalry win at Michigan as 13-point underdogs; natural letdown spot
-offense is below average; 22.4 ppg on 5.4 yppl versus defenses that allow 23 ppg on 5.4 yppl
-Spartans’ defense gave up 284 rushing yards to Notre Dame and Michigan

-Minnesota off back-to-back losses, and returning home, expect a peak performance here
-offense has a powerful rushing attack that averages 190 yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush
-Golden Gophers’ defense allowing just 17.2 points per game on a strong 5.0 yards per play

Play MINNESOTA (+) as a 3% play.

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(3% play) OVER 74.5 (UCLA/Arizona) - 9:00 pm ET (time-change) (PAC12) #177

-UCLA’s offense played poorly in their last game, so expect a strong bounce back effort here
-offense is averaging 41.4 points per game on a whopping 7.2 yards per play
-Bruins’ defense gives up 53 points and 556.5 yards of offense on 7.7 yards per play on the road

-Arizona’s offense is averaging a whopping 42 points per game on 6.8 yards per play
-the Wildcats average 321 rushing yards per game; UCLA gives up 284.2 rushing yards per game
-defense gave up 72 total points in their last two games and now they are stepping up in class

Play OVER as a 3% play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Docs

6 star Navy +3.5

[chalkcrusher]

ATS underdog Lock of year?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Missanelli

Army