Wednesday 10-11-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[New York Knight]

Yankees 0-5 in last 5 playoff road games.

Indians 6-0 in last 6 ALDS home games & 8-1 last 9 at home vs lefty starters.


NYY +180 / CLE -200

[New York Knight]

Nice fade info



Vegas Gambling Steam ...

NHL Public% (Top 3) Bets


Kings -143 (60%)
Ducks -125 (59%)
Caps -135 (59%)


NHL: 4-1 Yesterday : 9-18 2017 Season

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Sports

Boston vs. Colorado
Pick: Boston -120

Immediate revenge spot here for the Bruins, who lost at home Monday afternoon to the Avs, 4-0 as -200 ML favorites. Strangely, they are now just 1-12 their L13 home games against Colorado. But even though the Avalanche have already posted two wins this year as big ML dogs (won opener over the Rangers at +175), I'm not buying this start from them. This was the worst team in the league - by a mile - a year ago and we've got some great value to pounce on here w/ the road team.

Boston led the league in shot per game differential last season, which I happen to believe is a key stat. Speaking of stats, none of them were good last year for the Avs. They ranked last in goals scored and allowed, putting them at a differential of -112, which was more than double all but three other teams. In fact, no other team was outscored by more than 63 goals last season. Only four teams were outscored by more than 40. Obviously then, it should come as no shock that the Avs finished w/ 21 fewer points than the next worse team (Vancouver).

Monday's game was a stunner for sure and the final result made no sense to me considering Colorado was held to only 23 shots on goal. (Final goal was an empty-netter). I know Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask was prone to the occasional poor performance at home last year, but I expect him to bounce back here. Remember that the Avs started 3-1 last year before losing 59 of their last 78 games!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

New Jersey +182 over TORONTO

The Maple Leafs were projected to be really good this season. They came in with high expectations and after three games and a 3-0 record their stock is through the roof. The Maple Leafs have defeated Winnipeg, N.Y. Rangers and Chicago and have scored 19 times in those three games. Toronto’s offense is scary but they are not going to continue to score at this pace and there are some danger signs. The Maple leafs have taken 17 minor penalties over three games. That’s playing with fire. Frederick Andersen has been shaky on more than a few goals and was the main reason the Leafs nearly lost to Chicago. Toronto had a 5-1 lead over the Rangers but allowed New York to tie it 5-5 at one poiint. The Leafs were also dominated by Winnipeg in the first period of that game. Toronto’s defense is still not strong enough to be priced in this range against a team that is playing so well. We take nothing away from the Maple Leafs, as they truly are a highly skilled group that is not only dangerous, speedy and talented, but they are a threat to outscore every opponent they face this year. However, we’re all about playing value and with the media and fans slobbering all over the Maple Leafs, they have not been this overpriced over overhyped since gambling was illegal everywhere but Las Vegas.

Winning is contagious and the mere fact that the Devils are 2-0 and have scored 10 goals of their own makes them worth getting behind. Also throw in the outstanding goaltending of Mathieu Schneider and the Devils appeal gets even greater, but it’s not just that. The Devils opened their season with a win thanks to a three-point night from rookie defenseman Will Butcher. On Monday, the Devils roasted the Buffalo Sabres in a 6-2 beat down on the strength of rookie forward Jesper Bratt and newcomer Marcus Johansson. The pair of new additions for New Jersey totaled four goals and two assists between the two of them, marking yet another statement game from the Devils' offseason acquisitions. The #1 overall pick Nico Hischier set up a gorgeous goal in that victory over Buffalo but because the Devils have been so stale for so long, the market doesn’t believe they’re for real. Two games do not make a season but the Devils are a dangerous squad taking back an overlay inflated price here in a game they can win. The Devils are stale no more.

Calgary +127 over LOS ANGELES

The Kings stock is up after a quick 2-0 start but this 2-0 start is not like New Jersey’s for instance. L.A. beat Philadelphia 2-0 to open their season but they were the second best team on the ice for most of that game. They had a much better performance against the Sharks in their second game but the Sharks are 0-2 and starting to look older and slower. The real story of L.A.’s first two wins has been the play of Jonathan Quick and his league leading .983 save percentage. Any goaltender can get hot for a few games but Quick will come crashing down to earth real soon or just go back to being the ordinary goaltender he’s always been, save for one full season. Truth be told, L.A. didn’t get any better this season and while they have a good work ethic and some upper-tier talent, every team has upper tier talent these days. Los Angeles is a fringe playoff team at best and will be worth fading when they’re favored at home like they are here.

After a 3-0 opening night loss in Edmonton, the Flames have responded with back-to-back wins over Winnipeg and Anaheim while outscoring that pair 8-3. After failing to solve their persistent issues in goal with Brian Elliott last season, the Flames brought in Mike Smith from the Arizona Coyotes and in just three games, Smith has brought stability to the position. One cannot overstate the importance or positive impact that has on the entire team. The Flames also bolstered their defensive core this summer by adding Travis Hamonic in a trade with the New York Islanders. It’s a deal that will ensure that the Flames have a pairing that will rival the No. 1 option of most teams on the ice in just about every high-leverage situation. Calgary also has far more talent up front than the Kings also, as they bring an imposing and balanced three-line attack. Calgary beat L.A. three out of five times last year but this year the Flames have the confidence that comes with playing in front of a reliable goalie. Calgary is the better team taking back a price here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

TROY (-14) over South Alabama

Typically we would be worried about this being a letdown spot for Troy as in their last game they pulled off a huge upset by winning at LSU as a 21-point underdog. But we don’t think that will affect them tonight for a couple reasons. First off. they are off a bye week, so they have had 11 days to come down from that high and refocus. Secondly, South Alabama has given them fits in recent years. Last year, Troy slipped by with a 28-21 win on the road as a 10 point favorite and two years ago on this field South Alabama pulled off a 24-18 upset as a touchdown underdog. Finally, this is a standalone weekday TV game at home, the type of situation that always fires up a team. In four games against FBS competition this year, South Alabama is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, losing to the pointspread by a total of 38 points. Overall, they have covered just 10 of their last 30 games, including a 4-13 ATS run against conference opponents. Lay the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Indians -1.5

Momentum means a lot in sports, but so does a 22 game winning streak during the regular season and a starting pitcher in Corey Kluber who has been very solid all season. Kluber had a bad game the other night, but his work all season has been phenomenal and this bullpen has been rock solid. In a win or go home game I will go with the better team, better starter and better bullpen. This is priced too high to take the money line so let’s go with the run line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doug Upstone

Oct 11 '17, 8:00 PM

NCAA-F | South Alabama vs Troy
Play on: Troy -15 -115 at betonline

Troy is back in action after massive upset of LSU. Teams like the Trojans are in very good spot after such a victory since home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points off an upset win as a road underdog of 10 or more, in the first half of the season are 23-5 ATS 82.1% in their next contest the past 25 years.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ricky Tran

Oct 11 '17, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | NYY vs CLE
Play on: UNDER 7½ -120

I see this one playing out like a true deciding Game 5 should - low scoring.
Look for Kluber to find his command after his previous poor outing and for CC to continue his run of good pitching. I also foresee a lot of nerves and pinch running, bunts, etc. Anything to get a man in scoring position and then score a base hit; unlike a regular season slugging, load the bases and swing for the fences style game.
Weather wise it should be in the low 60's with a cross wind, so nothing really helping the ball fly.
Take the Under 7.5 Runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Oct 11 '17, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Yankees vs Indians
Play on: Yankees +1½ -120 at Bovada

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: New York Yankees +1.5 (-120)

I'm going to take a rare dog on the run line here in the Yankees at Indians ALDS Game 5. This is expected to be a low-scoring game with a total of just 7.5. Runs will be at a premium, and there's a good chance that this game is decided by a single run either way.

Corey Kluber was roughed up for 6 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in Game 2 of this series. He likely won't struggle that bad again, but it's certainly a concern moving forward for Indians backers. Kluber is clearly hittable.

I think Joe Girardi pulled CC Sabathia a little early in that game as he was cruising along giving up only 2 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings with just 77 pitches. The Yankees' bullpen gave away the lead. Sabathia has posted a 3.19 ERA in 15 road starts this season while being one of the most underrated starters in baseball.

The Yankees have all the momentum here after winning both their home games when facing elimination. That shows a lot of guts, and don't be surprised if they win this game either at a big dog price, but we'll take them on the run line for some insurance here. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays

Oct 11 '17, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Yankees vs Indians
Play on: Yankees +189 at 5Dimes

1* Free Play on Yankees +189

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Oct 11 '17, 7:05 PM in 30m
NBA | Celtics vs Hornets
Play on: Celtics -7½ -115 at BMaker

1* Free Pick on Celtics -7½ -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Oct 11 '17, 9:35 PM in 3h
NBA | Rockets vs Grizzlies
Play on: Rockets -8½ -110 at 5Dimes

1* on Rockets -8½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru

Oct 11 '17, 7:35 PM in 1h
NHL | Devils vs Maple Leafs
Play on: UNDER 6 +105

Free Total Annihilator On Devils vs Maple Leafs under 6 +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA

Oct 11 '17, 10:05 PM in 3h
NHL | Islanders vs Ducks
Play on: Islanders +112 at betonline

ASA FREE PLAY ON New York Islanders Money Line (+) over Anaheim Ducks, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET

Even though the Ducks have Ryan Getzlaf back in the lineup, they are still dealing with a number of injuries early this season. Even though Anaheim has been at home, they barely got by Arizona in their season opener and then the Ducks followed that up by losing each of their next two games by a combined score of 5 to 2. Anaheim is known for slow starts and, in games played in the first half of a season, have now lost 43 of 77 (-18.9 net units). The Islanders are off of a home loss to the Blues but St Louis is a perfect 4-0 this season. The Isles did play well in that game and they normally do enjoy success against Western Conference teams. The Islanders have won 34 of 57 (+10.0 net units) against non-conference opponents in recent seasons. The injuries are the reason this game is priced this way and, while many will look past that and grab the Ducks, this is truly an Anaheim team that is a little "out of sorts" early this season. We're grabbing the value with the road dog in this one. FREE PLAY ON New York Islanders on the money line in late night action Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Team Underground

NHL BOSTON BRUINS ‑125