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North Carolina +4
These teams are heading in opposite directions as Virginia has won and covered three straight games, whereas the Tar Heels have lost and failed to cover three consecutive games. The Cavaliers have caught the attention of bettors after pulling off back-to-back upsets over Boise State (42-23; 14-point underdogs) and Duke (28-21; 2-point underdogs). However, Bronco Mendenhall’s squad has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation through the first six weeks.
Hosting William & Mary, Indiana and Connecticut is hardly a difficult task, and Virginia actually lost to the Hoosiers by seventeen points. In contrast, the Tar Heels have played a substantially more difficult schedule, including games against California, Louisville, Duke, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame. The concern I have with North Carolina is the fact that it has fallen short of the market’s expectations in five of the first six weeks of 2017.
Virginia is 0.5 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage (0.1 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.4 yards per play better than average defensively). The Cavaliers’ pedestrian attack won’t be able to exploit a subpar North Carolina defense that is 0.3 yards per play worse than average (6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit).
The Tar Heels’ secondary has been really bad this season (7.5 yards per pass play to a group of quarterbacks that would combine to average just 6.6 yards per pass attempt against a mediocre secondary), but Virginia’s passing game is well below average and doesn’t have the big play ability to take advantage of North Carolina’s defensive shortcomings. Overall, Virginia possesses a 0.4 yards per play advantage from the line of scrimmage over the Tar Heels’ defense.
North Carolina possesses a decent offense that is averaging 25.3 points and 373 total yards per game against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per play to a mediocre attack. It’s a relatively even matchup when North Carolina has the ball and I expect the Tar Heels to be extremely focused on what would be a season-salvaging win before the home faithful. Let’s also note that Virginia is traveling for just the second time this season and has not faced a conference foe on foreign soil.
With respect to special teams, North Carolina is ranked 8th-nationally in net punting (42.55), 24th in kickoff returns (24.96) and 46th in punt returns (8.92), all of which give the Tar Heels better field position in this game. North Carolina also has an above-average red zone defense. From a technical standpoint, North Carolina is a profitable 9-3 ATS in its last twelve October affairs, 23-8 ATS at home versus teams with a winning road record, 11-5 ATS in its last sixteen games following a double-digit home loss and 31-15-1 ATS after failing to eclipse 20 points in its previous contest.
Finally, my math model indicates that the wrong team is favored (makes North Carolina a 2-point favorite). With Virginia standing at 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series, grab the points with the desperate home underdog and invest with confidence.
North Carolina +4
These teams are heading in opposite directions as Virginia has won and covered three straight games, whereas the Tar Heels have lost and failed to cover three consecutive games. The Cavaliers have caught the attention of bettors after pulling off back-to-back upsets over Boise State (42-23; 14-point underdogs) and Duke (28-21; 2-point underdogs). However, Bronco Mendenhall’s squad has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation through the first six weeks.
Hosting William & Mary, Indiana and Connecticut is hardly a difficult task, and Virginia actually lost to the Hoosiers by seventeen points. In contrast, the Tar Heels have played a substantially more difficult schedule, including games against California, Louisville, Duke, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame. The concern I have with North Carolina is the fact that it has fallen short of the market’s expectations in five of the first six weeks of 2017.
Virginia is 0.5 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage (0.1 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.4 yards per play better than average defensively). The Cavaliers’ pedestrian attack won’t be able to exploit a subpar North Carolina defense that is 0.3 yards per play worse than average (6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit).
The Tar Heels’ secondary has been really bad this season (7.5 yards per pass play to a group of quarterbacks that would combine to average just 6.6 yards per pass attempt against a mediocre secondary), but Virginia’s passing game is well below average and doesn’t have the big play ability to take advantage of North Carolina’s defensive shortcomings. Overall, Virginia possesses a 0.4 yards per play advantage from the line of scrimmage over the Tar Heels’ defense.
North Carolina possesses a decent offense that is averaging 25.3 points and 373 total yards per game against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per play to a mediocre attack. It’s a relatively even matchup when North Carolina has the ball and I expect the Tar Heels to be extremely focused on what would be a season-salvaging win before the home faithful. Let’s also note that Virginia is traveling for just the second time this season and has not faced a conference foe on foreign soil.
With respect to special teams, North Carolina is ranked 8th-nationally in net punting (42.55), 24th in kickoff returns (24.96) and 46th in punt returns (8.92), all of which give the Tar Heels better field position in this game. North Carolina also has an above-average red zone defense. From a technical standpoint, North Carolina is a profitable 9-3 ATS in its last twelve October affairs, 23-8 ATS at home versus teams with a winning road record, 11-5 ATS in its last sixteen games following a double-digit home loss and 31-15-1 ATS after failing to eclipse 20 points in its previous contest.
Finally, my math model indicates that the wrong team is favored (makes North Carolina a 2-point favorite). With Virginia standing at 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series, grab the points with the desperate home underdog and invest with confidence.
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