Monday 10-16-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Eric Schroeder

My free play for tonight is on the Over in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series, as I see the Houston Astros and New York Yankees easily soar.

IMPORTANT: As you know every single Run Line play and Total wager will automatically list the scheduled starting pitchers at the time of the wager. But with this game I am not concerned with who is pitching for either team tonight and want you playing this game on the Run Line regardless. That said, IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to be sure you have action even if one of the pitchers scheduled to start is scratched, by betting the game over again in the event that takes place.

And there are plenty of reasons why, but topping the list...

The Astros led the regular season in runs scored on the road, with 501. The next closest: 418, from the Miami Marlins. The Yankees ranked third in runs scored at home, with 451.

Spanning their last 40 games, the Astros are on 14-8 winning run on the road, while the Yankees are on a 16-7 run at home. So both will be swinging bats after a pair of 2-1 games in Houston in Games 1 and 2.

The Yankees rank No. 1 in the playoffs with 11 home runs, and are third in runs at home during the postseason, behind the Dodgers and Astros, respectively.

4* OVER Astros/Yankees

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DAVE COKIN

COLTS AT TITANS
PLAY: COLTS +8

My projected line on tonight’s game is Tennessee -7.5, so this is no play material for me.

However, if you’re into trends, there’s probably only one way to play. Consider that the Colts have completely owned this series from a spread standpoint, covering 10 of the last 11 meetings with the Titans.

Indy is also a stellar 27-9 ATS when facing teams with losing records, while Tennessee has been a monster money burner at home, just 8-22-2 vs. the line in the last 32 home games.

Beyond that, while I don’t have much regard for the Colts, this Titans team is starting to look like a pretty big bust for those who held them in high regard prior to the season. I think at the very least, it’s fair to offer than the Titans have been a disappointment to date.

No play for me, I’ll simply be observing tonight. But based on the trends listed and the fact that the Titans have shown little in the way of cohesiveness, I’d have to lean with the Colts getting more than a TD here.

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Chip Chirimbes

Colts vs. Titans
Play: Titans -7

A pair of 2-3 clubs that are having difficulties fielding a healthy quarterback. The Colts have been without Andrew Luck the entire season and are going with Jacoby Brissett who threw for a career high 317 yards last week in Indianapolis' overtime win against San Francisco. Tennessee has been without Marcus Mariota and their entire team on both sides of the ball has suffered defeats to Houston 57-14 and Miami 16-10 last week. Now, with the Colts having won 11 straight meetings and being 10-1 ATS in those games including 4-1 ATS in Nashville. Now, here is a team possibly without their quarterback and has lost 11 straight to their opponent and yet they are such a strong favorite. The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and I like them here.

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Scott Rickenbach

Free Pick Monday NHL

Tampa Bay vs. Detroit, 10/16/2017 19:30 EDT

Money Line: +117 Detroit

Sportsbook:
Betonline

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach Free Pick NHL Monday Detroit Red Wings Money Line (+) vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 7:35 ET - The Red Wings have been a pleasant surprise early this season and they're looking to get revenge on the Lightning. Not only did Tampa Bay win all 5 meetings last season, the Lightning eliminated Detroit from the post-season in the spring of 2016 when the Bolts took the first round series 4 games to 1. The Red Wings have had two days off since the played at Vegas Friday. Detroit handed the Golden Knights what remains the only loss that Vegas has so far this season. The Red Wings penalty killing has been excellent as they have killed off 21 of 23 power plays thus far. Also, though they failed to convert their only power play opportunity at Vegas, Detroit entered that game with 4 power play goals in the first 4 games. Tampa Bay has given up 4 power play goals in 16 opportunities for the opposition in their last 4 games. Also, the Bolts have lost 25 of 40 (-$14,600) when, in the first half of a season, they're facing a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay allowed 48 shots on goal in their only road game this season. Conversely, the Red Wings have allowed an average of just 31.7 shots on goal in their last 3 games! I also like the edge in the fact that both teams are 4-1 on the season but the Red Wings have arguably been more impressive as they've had 4 of their 5 games on the road while the Bolts simply took advantage of having 4 of their 5 games at home. It's worth noting that Tampa Bay lost their only road game this season! Free Pick on DETROIT

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Tony Brown

Tony's *5 nfl free pick

Indianapolis vs. Tennessee, 10/16/2017 20:30 EDT

Total: -119/+49 Under

Sportsbook:
Bookmaker

Titans off the long rest and getting there starting QB back from injury will need a few qtrs to get on track . And vs the colts already anemic offense 50 points to beat us will be a chore making the under my nfl free . Pick .

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Scott Rickenbach

Free Pick Monday NFL

Indianapolis vs. Tennessee, 10/16/2017 20:30 EDT

Point Spread: +8/-115 Indianapolis

Sportsbook:
TopBet

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach Free Pick Monday Night NFL Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 8:30 ET - The Colts have won 11 straight meetings with the Titans. Also, under head coach Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis is 8-1-1 ATS in their 10 games against division rival Tennessee. Believe it or not, this is a huge game even though it involves a pair of 2-3 teams. The winner will be tied for 1st place in the AFC South with Jacksonville and Houston while the loser falls a game behind everyone else in the division. While the Titans may indeed finally snap their 11-game losing skid to the Colts, I don't see it coming by more than a TD. There is solid line value here with Indy catching 8 points here (and in some spots as high as 8.5) as of early game-day morning. The Colts have the momentum edge with wins in 2 of their last 3 games and they also have the series history edge. Those two things lead to a lot of confidence and Jacoby Brissett is coming off of a huge game for Indianapolis - still without Andrew Luck. Even though Marcus Mariota is expected back for the Titans tonight, will he truly be 100%? Also, Tennessee has lost two straight games and confidence is waning. The Colts are 8-4 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They're also on an 8-2 ATS run in games played between weeks 5 and 9. The Titans are on a 2-13 ATS run against teams with a losing record! Free Pick on INDIANAPOLIS

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Brandon Lee

Oct 16 '17, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | Astros vs Yankees
Play on: Yankees -129 at BMaker

10* FREE MLB PICK (Yankees -129)
The Astros held serve at home to take a 2-0 series lead in the ALCS over the Yankees, but I look for New York to respond as they head home for Game 3 and have veteran C.C. Sabathia on the mound. Sabathia has been one of the Yankees most consistent starters down the stretch. He started twice against the Indians in the ALDS and gave up just 4 runs (2 each start) on 8 hits with 14 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings of work. While he's not gone deep in games, that's just fine with the outstanding bullpen of New York. The Yankees offense should get going here against Houston's Charlie Morton, who has a 4.17 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in 10 road starts. One of those was at NY against these Yankees, where he gave up 4 runs in just 5 2/3 innings. Give me the Yankees -129!

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Rocky Atkinson

Oct 16 '17, 7:35 PM in 44m
NHL | Lightning vs Red Wings
Play on: Lightning -119 at betonline

Rocketman Sports FREE NHL play Monday 10-16-17 Tampa Bay @ Detroit 7:35 PM EST
Play On: Tampa Bay -119 The Tampa Bay Lightning travel to Detroit to take on the Red Wings on Monday night. Both teams come in with identical 4-1 SU overall records on the season. Detroit is 98-109 last 207 games after playing 3 consecutive road games. Tampa Bay is scoring 4 goals per game overall this year, 4 goals per game on the road this season and 4.5 goals per game against division opponents this year. Detroit is scoring only 2 goals per game against division opponents. Tampa Bay is 11-3 SU overall vs Detroit the past 3 years. Tampa Bay has won 7 of their past 8 games overall. Tampa Bay is 9-3 last 12 games after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Detroit is 10-27 last 37 games against the Atlantic. Detroit is 7-19 last 26 games when playing with 2 days rest. Tampa Bay is 22-8 last 30 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Tampa Bay tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky Rocketman is passing with premium picks on Monday! Check back on Tuesday! Rocketman is now a solid 9-2 82% last 2 weeks with all football picks in NFL and CFB! NBA Starts Tuesday! Be ready!

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Mike Williams

Oct 16 '17, 8:05 PM in 1h
MLB | HOU vs NYY
Play on: OVER 8½ -120

1* on Astros vs Yankees over 8½ -120

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Info Plays

Oct 16 '17, 8:30 PM in 1h
NFL | Colts vs Titans
Play on: OVER 47 -110

1* Free Play on Colts vs Titans over 47 -110

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Harry Bondi

Colts / Titans Under 47

Coming off two easy free winners on Saturday and Sunday, we turn to Monday Night Football. All of the team and series trends lean toward the over here tonight, but we’re not buying. This total is way too high for two teams that are having serious injury problems at the QB position. Marcus Mariota is expected to get the start for Tennessee, but since he is just coming back from a hamstring injury, the normally mobile QB will be kept under wraps as the Titans rely on their bread-and-butter running game. And while the Colts have gone over in three out of four games with Jacoby Brissett under center, the average total in those games was 42. Tonight’s number of 47 will be too high a mountain for these two limited offenses to climb.

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SPORTS WAGERS

TENNESSEE -7 over Indianapolis

The AFC South is considered the worst division in football and after sending nine-win teams to the playoffs the last two seasons, it is a hard point to argue against. Even when the Colts were winning 10 and 11 games their record was padded with wins that came on the backs of their weak division opponents. With Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning before him, the Colts have had the best quarterback in the division for over a decade and it hasn’t been close but with the former still sidelined with a surgically repaired shoulder, this franchise has been exposed as a one-trick pony. While Indy is 2-3 through five weeks, the goods under the hood show that they are probably fortunate to have the two wins they do have, as they rank near the bottom of the league in total DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense-adjusted value over average) at -48.8% just 0.03% above the winless Browns. The weak offensive line, which has been an issue for years and is a big reason why the franchise QB is on the bench, has been awful again this season, as Colts QBs have been sacked 18 times with an adjusted sack rate of 9.8% which give sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance and opponent. The bottom line is that the Colts shouldn’t be winning football games.

Quarterback Marcus Mariota will return under center having missed one game with a hamstring injury and while the media and market are obsessing over how injured he is coming into this game, we couldn’t care less. Whether or not Mariota will finish the game has been factored into this line and oddsmakers still had no problem making the Titans an 8-point favorite. Also important factor to consider is that Pinnacle, the sharpest book in town, opened at -8 while many other outfits posted -7. Mariota should be a welcome addition, as he ranks seventh in total Quarterback DVOA at 19.8% almost 5% higher than Carson Wentz who is 8th. For years the Colts have had the upper hand at quarterback in this series but with Luck out, the tables have turned.

Next up is those utterly useless trends that people use to make selections. It is well documented that Indy has dominated this series by beating them every time since 2011 when Matt Hasselbeck was still Tennessee’s quarterback. The Titans have got to be sick of losing to the Colts and tonight is their opportunity to take one back in prime time in front of the football world. Yesterday, favorite bettors were crushed by large favorites with a pair of 13-point dogs winning outright (Dolphins, Giants) and double-digit favs like New England and Washington failing to cover. Hell, a bunch of smaller pooches like the Bears, Rams and Chargers had little trouble covering so we can understand the reluctance of laying large lumber. However, the Colts are getting far too much credit for competing against the Seahawks (that game was tied 18-18 late in the third) and having two wins already but the two victories were against the Brownies and 49ers, both by a FG. Thus, the Colts could easily be 0-5. Indy’s three losses have been by an average of 21 points. This is a mismatch any way you slice it and the price is too low. The Titans have pointed towards this game as the game that would really define the progress of this regime and change the guard in the division. The improvement is evident and now the Titans are ready to snap a 10-game series losing streak against a Colts’ quad that's struggling in all three phases and that can’t match up.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Houston +124 over N.Y. YANKEES

We haven’t played a lot of MLB playoffs because we haven’t seen enough value and it’s actually worked out well. When the favorite wins by one run, we know we save some bets but now the venue switches from Minute Maid Park to Yankee Stadium. Game 1 and Game 2 were both tight 2-1 games. Each game broke Houston’s way so the end result of two close contests is a big 2-0 series lead for the Astros. The Yankees send CC Sabathia to the mound on regular rest coming off a solid if short outing in Game 5 of the ALDS against Cleveland. The Astros are starting Charlie Morton who will be working on six days’ rest after a similarly solid if short outing of his own in Game 4 of the ALDS against Boston.

This is obviously a crucial game for the Yankees and we’re somewhat surprised that Joe Girardi’s rotation has gone Sabathia (Game 5 v Cleve), Tanaka (Game 1 in ALDS) Severino (Game 2 in ALDS) and back to Sabathia. No Sonny Gray or no Jordan Montgomery in between, which is likely going to cost Girardi. Starting C.C. over Sonny Gray is something we can’t wrap our heads around but Girardi can because he’s a loyal warrior. C.C. came through in Game 5 v Cleveland and he’s come through many times in the past. Girardi and Sabathia have a long history together. Wearing the Pinstripes is an honor they both embrace and if they go down, they’re going down together. We like Girardi in terms of his demeanor, passion, military look and everything else but his decision here to go with C.C. over Gray is an emotional one and not a rational one. Starting Gray tomorrow is a day too late. If we’re wrong, so be it.

Sabathia has actually been very good this year with a 14-5 record to go along with a 3.69 ERA. He also has 120 K’s in 149 innings and in his two playoff appearances, he struck out 10 Indians in 12 frames while posting a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Give C.C credit for learning to hone his craft while his skills were regressing badly. We could go over his past three seasons prior to this year and find concerns about his size and his workload. One could follow trend in just about any skill area too for three consecutive years prior to this one (xERA, control, command, first-pitch strikes and WHIP) and find reason to worry. Thus, what C.C. has been able to do this year has to be admired but that doesn’t mean we should trust him as the chalk. It's no secret that the once-indestructible CC Sabathia isn't what he was. With diminished velocity, Sabathia hasn't been able to rack up elite strikeout totals. He's missed a few more bats in 2017, but we're skeptical that can hold against the Astronauts. With two straight seasons of 4.85+ xERA, a fastball sputtering near 89 mph and a brutal home park, there's little—if any—upside on Sabathia spotting a tag. He’s a big risk in a small park.

This market is not buying Charlie Morton’s success, which is understandable considering that Morton is a 33-year-old flashing never-before-seen velocity or strikeouts. In 147 frames, Morton has 163 K’s. A couple ticks on the fastball and a knockout curve (22% swing and miss) have worked wonders for Morton's strikeouts. The strikeout gains haven't come at the expense of control either. As a result, his command has skyrocketed. Morton's two-seamer continues to be a worm killer (60% grounders). Morton's long been an extreme ground-baller with decent control but his newfound ability to miss bats quickly makes for an attractive target. Morton's skills are worth your attention. The Astronauts may indeed go on to lose here but the more likely scenario is that they get to C.C. early and make Girardi pay for another post-season bad decision. Either way, all the value is on the dog.

Pass NHL

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OC Dooley

Astros / Yankees Under 4.5 1st Half

With each game in the American League Championship series low scoring (2-1 final scores) one would think tonight's third game would be higher scoring especially since Houston's ace combination of Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander are not on the mound. But for those who follow the Astros tonight's veteran starter Charlie Morton not only "grew up" a Yankees fan (living in the state of Connecticut) he is also a STRIKEOUT hurler. The last time veteran C.C. Sabathia took the mound for the Yankees he STRUCK OUT 9 different batters in "less" than 5 innings of work. Thus in a starting matchup better than most think I am wagering UNDER 4-and-a-half runs on the FIVE INNING LINE