Tuesday 10-17-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Trends - Buffalo at Vegas

W/L TRENDS

Buffalo

Sabres are 46-94 in their last 140 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Sabres are 26-53 in their last 79 games following a win. Sabres are 28-60 in their last 88 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Sabres are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. Pacific. Sabres are 47-113 in their last 160 road games. Sabres are 29-71 in their last 100 vs. a team with a winning record. Sabres are 8-21 in their last 29 overall. Sabres are 17-45 in their last 62 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Sabres are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. Western Conference. Sabres are 2-6 in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. Sabres are 1-4 in their last 5 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Sabres are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Sabres are 0-5 in their last 5 Tuesday games.

Vegas

Golden Knights are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.

OU TRENDS

Buffalo

Under is 4-0-1 in Sabres last 5 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation. Over is 4-0 in Sabres last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 5-1-1 in Sabres last 7 games following a win. Over is 4-1 in Sabres last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 4-1-1 in Sabres last 6 vs. Pacific. Under is 4-1-1 in Sabres last 6 vs. Western Conference. Over is 3-1-1 in Sabres last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 5-2 in Sabres last 7 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Over is 5-2-2 in Sabres last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Under is 7-3-1 in Sabres last 11 road games. Over is 11-5-2 in Sabres last 18 Tuesday games.

Vegas

No trends available.

HEAD TO HEAD

No trends available.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fort Erie

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $16320 Class Rating: 89

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 17 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $12,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN ON THE


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 CANNA RED 12/1

# 4 MISS FORESTER 8/5

# 3 SONNY SHORT STACK 5/1

I have to consider CANNA RED for this event especially at a long price. Drexler has her trained well to break promptly out of the gate. MISS FORESTER - Earning some good money in turf sprint races. With a nice Equibase class rating average of 90, has one of the top class advantages in this field. SONNY SHORT STACK - Ran a strong last race. Have to take notice when any racer makes a quick return.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes

Finger Lakes - Race 2

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 2-3)


Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 1:37P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 17 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. I WILL ROCK YOU is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * I WILL ROCK YOU: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MEETME AT D'STREET: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in th e top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2
I WILL ROCK YOU
5/2

3/1
5
MEETME AT D'STREET
2/1

4/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Portland Meadows

Portland Meadows - Race 7

Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)


Claiming $2,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $5,500 • Post: 2:48P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 17, 2017 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Trailer. DUSTIN'S PASSION is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DUSTIN'S PASSION: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. IT DOESN'T ADD UP: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CHUTNEY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
5
DUSTIN'S PASSION
7/2

9/2
3
IT DOESN'T ADD UP
5/2

9/2
6
CHUTNEY
6/1

7/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 72

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 GRAYMOND 5/2

# 5 JONES TAXI 6/1

# 3 CATAPULT JACK 2/1

GRAYMOND looks respectable to best this field. Could provide positive returns based on decent recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 68. Should be given a shot - I like the numbers from the last affair. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the most favorable class numbers of this field. JONES TAXI - This gelding must be given consideration just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone. Could best this field here, showing formidable figures of late. CATAPULT JACK - Vera has this gelding racing well and is a quite good selection based on the formidable Equibase Speed Figures put up in sprint races as of late. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Vera running at this distance are the top in this group.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Thistledown - Race #4 - Post: 3:10pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,500 Class Rating: 75

Rating: 4

#6 FULL METAL (ML=8/1)
#2 SABBIADORO (ML=7/2)


FULL METAL - Hernandezlopez rode this mount for the first time in the last race and comes right back in this race. Trainer Vickers moves this one down in class ranks to face a lower level today. Look for a strong effort with this class drop. This horse is number one in earnings per start. He looks strong in today's clash. SABBIADORO - Rounding his way back into form. Each of his finish positions is getting better in his recent starts. This thoroughbred coming off a sharp contest in the last 30 days is a contender in my opinion. PP lines show this campaigner with 3 improving Equibase speed figs. Corrales should be on a live horse in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 NICO SUAVE' (ML=3/1), #1 GLADHANDER (ML=9/2), #4 JAVA FOR TWO (ML=6/1),

NICO SUAVE' - Difficult to bet on any thoroughbred to turn things around if there is no wager value to taking the stab. This probable favorite hasn't motored around the track in awhile. No workouts since last race. GLADHANDER - You think this equine is going to win just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish first regularly. JAVA FOR TWO - Unlikely that this horse will finish better than he did last time when placing fifth. You think this equine is going to win today just because he's always close. Just doesn't win regularly.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #6 FULL METAL on top if we're getting at least 8/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Zia Park - Race #4 - Post: 1:32pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 62

Rating: 4

#3 TEF'S ORDEAL (ML=6/1)
#2 CRIMSON MUSIC (ML=4/1)


TEF'S ORDEAL - The jockey/handler duo of Reyes and Dennison has a strong ROI together. Gelding looks like the lone speed here. He may turn the race into a procession. This gelding's last fig recorded on September 12th is number one in last race Equibase speed figures. CRIMSON MUSIC - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a sharp race on September 23rd. This gelding gets a weight break of -5 lbs from last race. Its possible this could make the difference right here in this race. Look at this pattern of improvement. 45/49/53 are the last three speed ratings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 STREAKIN DOME (ML=9/5), #1 THE GHOST OF DIXIE (ML=5/1), #9 MALUSITA TOWER (ML=8/1),

STREAKIN DOME - The Brain always cautions me to stay away from horses in sprint races that haven't hit the board in sprint contests of late. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to earn a much better speed rating than last time around the track to compete in this dirt sprint. THE GHOST OF DIXIE - Didn't do much last time out of the box. Probably won't do much running in today's race. MALUSITA TOWER - I can't play this frequent non-winner. Gets the task done occasionally.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #3 TEF'S ORDEAL on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

FREE play: TUES Houston w/ McCullers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TENNIS INSIDERS
Tennis | Oct 17, 2017
K Pliskova vs. D Gavrilova
K Pliskova+134
Pick: 1* Pliskova to win

- Gavrilova faces a short turnaround following a dramatic 7-5/3-6/6-7 defeat in the Hong Kong final late Sunday night (local time)
- She spent 3hrs 13mins on court during the final, and has flown +4000 miles to Moscow.
- Pliskova is 14cm taller than Gavrilova and should thrive in these quick conditions with her big serve & groundstrokes
- She'll also have chances to attack the Gavrilova second serve
- 6th match in 8 days for Gavrilova, take the physically fresher Pliskova to win

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JIMMY BOYD

Free pick on Celtics/Cavs UNDER 212

I see some value here in the total on Tuesday's highly anticipated Opening Night matchup between the Celtics and Cavaliers. Not only did these two teams face off in the Eastern Conference Finals last year, they made a blockbuster trade in the offseason. Cleveland traded Kyrie Irving to Boston for Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder. A deal that was sparked by Irving's demand to be traded.
LeBron James and the rest of the Cavaliers who have been with the team took that trade personal, as Irving basically said he didn't want to play with them anymore. Needless to say, this is one of the rare times you get a playoff type atmosphere in October. Both teams will be out to make a statement.
I look for that intensity to result in a much lower-scoring game than the number the books have set for this total. Keep in mind there's a lot of new faces on both teams and there's just not going to be that chemistry.
Cleveland has 3 new starters in Derrick Rose, Dwayne Wade and Crowder. Boston has two new faces in Irving and Gordon Hayward, plus will be without expected starting power forward Marcus Morris, who figures to be out another week or so with a knee injury. James is questionable for the Cavs, but I fully expect him to play. If he doesn't, that only adds more value to this one going below the mark. Take the UNDER!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RED DOG SPORTS
Soccer | Oct 17, 2017
Bristol Rovers vs. Shrewsbury Town
Shrewsbury +145

Other books have the home team at +150 to +160. This soccer match takes place at 2:45pm on Tuesday in England's League One. Shrewsbury is off two 1-1 draws on the road and now play at home where they have 12 wins, 0 losses and 2 draws in their last 14. Bristol has 6 wins and 7 losses (-1 goal difference). I do worry about another 1-1 final but Shrewsbury beat them 2-0 at home last December. Nice value at +145.

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Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EARLY Free Pick NHL Tuesday:

Toronto Maple Leafs Money Line (+) @ Washington Capitals @ 7:05 ET

Playoff revenge for the Maple Leafs after they blew a 2-1 series lead in April and lost to Washington. Toronto comes into this game with a 4-1 record this season while the Capitals are already showing some flaws as they've dropped 3 of their last 4 games and just got annihilated by the Flyers 8-2 on Saturday. The hotter team playing with revenge and also available at a solid underdog price is offering significant value here. EARLY Free Pick on TORONTO

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Scott Rickenbach

Free Pick Tuesday NHL Late

Buffalo vs. Las Vegas, 10/17/2017 22:00 EDT

Total: -105/+5½ Over

Sportsbook:
PinnacleSports

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach LATE Free Pick NHL Tuesday: OVER 5.5 goals in Vegas Golden Knights vs Buffalo Sabres @ 10:05 ET - Vegas really stepped up in front of goalie Malcolm Subban in his first game replacing the injured Marc-Andre Fleury. Give Subban credit for allowing only 1 goal but also give the Golden Knights credit for only allowing 22 shots. The thing is, a lot of times a team will really step up their efforts in front of a back-up goalie making his first start but in the 2nd game complacency tends to resume. Don't expect any extra special effort in front of Subban tonight and the result should be a high-scoring shootout in the desert because the Sabres are off of a 3-1 win at Anaheim Sunday but had allowed 4.4 goals per game in their first 5 games this season. Only 12 of Buffalo's last 36 Tuesday games (33%) have stayed under the total. The over was 3-1 in the Sabres 4 games prior to the low-scoring win over the Ducks. The first two home games for Vegas averaged 7 goals a game and after the 3rd one was a rare low-scoring game (Subban's debut with the Golden Knights), I look for the high-scoring trend to resume immediately. LATE Free Pick on OVER 5.5 goals in Vegas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Brown

Tony's *5 Nba opening day free play

Houston vs. Golden State, 10/17/2017 22:30 EDT

Point Spread: +9½/-110 Houston

Sportsbook:
TopBet

Fp: houston added a few key pieces on defense and of course all world pg Cris Paul .to help James harden get past the Golden State hump in the west coast and I think it will be just what the doctor ordered all the offense weapons on the rockets they have a good shot to win out right . Getting 10 points for insurance making houston my Nba free play .

[bmd1803]

Maple Leafs at Capitals 10/17/17 - NHL Picks & Predictions

by Mike

Latest Odds : WAS -150 Total 6

The Capitals are going to be scratching their heads coming into this game as they dropped the last game to the Flyers by a score of 8-2. However, the Capitals defense is the main issue the team has had to deal with almost all season this year. So the Capitals know the weakness and need to improve on the defense.

Offensively the Capitals have been able to score 3.7 goals a game and lead the league in power play conversion at 31.6%. However, the defense is giving up 3.7 goals a game as well and they are only killing off only 76.9% of the power plays they have faced.


For the Maple Leafs they have been a potent threat on the ice all season long. The Maple Leafs have had a chance to go out and win a game each time they are hitting the ice and with the leagues best offense it is very easy to see why they are doing so well on the season.

The Maple Leafs offense is scoring at a clip of 5.2 goals a game and the power play is converting at a clip of 30.8% on the year. The defense for the Maple Leafs has managed to contain the opponents to 3.8 goals a game, but are only killing off 79.2% of the opponents power plays.


Recent Betting Trends:
Maple Leafs are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
Capitals are 6-0 in their last 6 Tuesday games.
Over is 5-0 in Maple Leafs last 5 games following a win.
Under is 9-4 in Capitals last 13 home games.


Free Betting Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs +140


Neither the Maple Leafs nor the Capitals are playing good on defense. However, the Maple Leafs offense is blowing the doors off of the opponents. Look for the Maple Leafs offense to continue on a good run here as they pick up the win 5-3.