Wednesday 11-8-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2017, 05:38 AM

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #5 - 2:17 PM
8.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD ALLOWANCE $57,000.00 PURSE

#2 LAND MINE
#1A GOBI / #1 THREE EIGHTY EIGHT
#3 CONNIE A
#4 COTTON CANDY CUTIE

#2 LAND MINE takes a class drop (-5), and comes off back-to-back "POWER RUNS" in her last two outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her 2nd race back, which was just the 3rd race of her young career to date. #1A GOBI is the pace profile leader in this field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of her last three starts. Jockey Hector Diaz Jr. has been in her irons on four previous occasions, hitting the board in each, winning once, and is back today here in Ozone Park for his 5th ride. The stablemate, #1 THREE EIGHTY EIGHT has hit the board in four of her last four outings, with three of those "board hit efforts" also qualifying as "POWER RUNS."

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2017, 05:41 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

Aqueduct - Race 8

Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double Wagers

Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 95 • Purse: $67,000 • Post: 3:47P
(RAIL AT 9 FEET). (UP TO $12,060 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2017 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER AT ANY DISTANCE ALLOWED 4 LBS. (ALLOWANCE HORSES PREFERRED)(NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE LESS THAN $25,000 IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED). (IF THE STEWARDS CONSIDER IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT ONE MILE ON THE MAIN TRACK.)
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CHURCH SOCIAL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the dista nce/surface. BAREEQA: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. WARRANTY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MISS AJA BROWN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SPEIGHGAL: H orse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
4
CHURCH SOCIAL
3/1

6/1
10
BAREEQA
8/1

7/1
7
WARRANTY
8/1

7/1
9
MISS AJA BROWN
15/1

8/1
6
SPEIGHGAL
4/1

8/1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2017, 05:41 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Churchill Downs

Churchill Downs - Race 10

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5

Claiming $16,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 5:30P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ARCHANGEL ROSE: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. BIG EXCHANGE: Horse's win perce ntage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. PLUMES: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. BOWMAN WEST: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equiba se Class Rating at the distance/surface. PONTASTIC: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
9
ARCHANGEL ROSE
15/1

9/2
6
BIG EXCHANGE
4/1

7/1
4
PLUMES
5/1

8/1
7
BOWMAN WEST
6/1

9/1
10
PONTASTIC
7/2

9/1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2017, 05:42 AM

Handicapped by Valuline at Delta Downs

Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Delta Downs, Race 5 (Wednesday November 8, 2017)

SOUTHERN MISTER
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)

DED-5 7.5f DIRT Nine Horses
"A" StALW 5,000 3YUP $22,000
P# dd ex p3 t s ML WP TVL

7 SOUTHERN MISTER 3/2 36% 9/5 Strong Favorite icon
6 OUR SMITTY 6/1 29% 5/2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2017, 05:42 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 60

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 SELFIE SENSATION 7/2

# 12 CANDY ASSAY 9/2

# 1 MISCHIEVOUS BELLE 2/1

I think SELFIE SENSATION is a decent choice. Shows formidable speed figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. Loza has one of the most respectable winning percentages in this field with entries running at this distance and surface. Could best this group of animals based on the speed figure - 61 - of her last race. CANDY ASSAY - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a very good handicapping key. This one ranks at the top in this field. Must be considered given the class of races run recently. MISCHIEVOUS BELLE - Will most likely come out solid - I have liked the way this filly has moved quickly to the lead recently.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2017, 05:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 4:02pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,400 Class Rating: 75

Rating: 3

#4 GASPROM (ML=4/1)
#12 A BIT OF WHO DO (ML=7/2)
#7 MO TRAMP (ML=5/2)

GASPROM - Faced tougher last race out at Delaware Park. Based on class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this one on my list of probable winners in this race. Have to give this colt a chance. Ran a nice contest in the last race within the last thirty days. A BIT OF WHO DO - Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a nice outing on Oct 14th. Quinones and Sullivan have had fabulous success together over the last year. The last speed rating of 70 is the highest last race speed figure in the bunch. MO TRAMP - I like to play this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a nice outing within the last 30 days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 NUCLEAR FUSION (ML=8/1),

NUCLEAR FUSION - You always think this equine has a shot to be victorious, but he falters frequently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #4 GASPROM on the win end if we get at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7,12] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2017, 05:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #3 - Post: 6:54pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,300 Class Rating: 76

Rating: 3

#2 CHRISTMAS EVE (ML=8/1)
#9 JAZZ HALL (ML=10/1)
#3 PLEIADES K S A (ML=5/2)
#6 MENSCHKE (ML=15/1)
#8 WEEKEND SERENADE (ML=12/1)

CHRISTMAS EVE - First-timer has morning drills over the Penn National strip, which is always a plus. Strong return on investment for this jockey and conditioner twosome. This trainer has an ROI of +61 with horses first time out. JAZZ HALL - Utilizing this jockey/conditioner combination is a good choice. This here is a 2YO race. This horse's sire has strong stats (32 pct win rate). PLEIADES K S A - A horse coming back this soon after a nice effort is a good signal. Horses that finish 2nd in Maiden races and finish well clear of the show horse are generally good bets next time out. This filly's last speed figure earned on October 26th is in the top spot in last race speed figures. This animal brings in a lot of dough per race. Utmost in this affair. MENSCHKE - This jockey/conditioner duo has been producing a very beneficial ROI, right at +280. I like the fact that this first timer's recent works have been over this track. This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Stites. WEEKEND SERENADE - Really think this horse is going to be close at the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BETTERBRINGURAGAME (ML=3/1), #1 MS TEEK (ML=9/2), #10 THE BAY EXPRESS (ML=6/1),

BETTERBRINGURAGAME - Didn't look so hot last time out. Probably won't make an impact in today's race. In any contest of 6 furlongs, I like to support a contender that has been sharp in sprint events recently. Speed kills. Plenty of zip in this event compromises this animal's hopes. MS TEEK - Pace makes the race. Hard for this early speedster to be able to deal with the early pressure from the rest of this bunch. Garnered a pedestrian rating last race out in a Maiden Special race on October 26th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that fig. THE BAY EXPRESS - Hard to put your money on this early speedball. Too much zip in the race. Not likely that the speed figure she registered on October 19th will be enough in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #2 CHRISTMAS EVE on the win end if we get at least 5/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,9] Box [2,6] Box [2,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
[2,3,9] with [2,3,6,8,9] with [2,3,6,8,9] Total Cost: $36

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,9] with [2,3,9] with [2,3,6,8,9] with [2,3,6,8,9] Total Cost: $24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2017, 05:44 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2017 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $6,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 HOCKEY HALL 10/1

# 13 ONE FLASHY CAT 12/1

# 3 MARCAVELLYS DREAM 7/2

HOCKEY HALL looks competitive to best this field especially at a long price. Looks very strong to be up on the lead at the first call. Has performed solidly lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 72 avg speed rating. ONE FLASHY CAT - Could best this group here, showing formidable figures of late. Has performed strongly lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 71 avg Equibase Speed Fig. MARCAVELLYS DREAM - Posted a very good Equibase Speed Fig last time out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2017, 07:21 AM

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Wednesday, November 8, 2017

NBA (505) LOS ANGELES LAKERS VS (506) BOSTON CELTICS

Take: OVER

Reason: Your free play for Wednesday, November 8, 2017 is in the NBA contest between the LA Lakers and Boston Celtics. Boston opened its season with two losses. Since then, it's been nine straight wins. A big reason is the offseason addition of Kyrie Irving, who leads the team in scoring. AL Horford has also been a component of the Celits fine start. Boston has had one of the best defenses in the NBA, allowing just 94.5 ppg against. Contrast to the 5-5 Lakers, who are allowing a whopping 107.3 ppg this season. The Lakers have won two straight games with victories over Memphis and Brooklyn at home. Boston has covered eight of their last nine games. In fact, they have scored double digits over the line in four of their last five and seven of their last nine. LA has gone over in 11 of its 16 road games. Boston is 16-5-1 in its last 22 home games. Boston should score easily here against this bad LA defense. I look for this game to go OVER the total.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2017, 09:55 AM

Arthur Ralph Sports

WED Boston Celtics -9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2017, 10:01 AM

BEN BURNS

Heat-5

The Miami Heat are having some issues and what better place to work them out than in Phoenix against the Suns, who have had more than their fair share of issues of their own. While the Suns are breathing easier after dealing away disgruntled star Eric Bledsoe, the Heat are trying to work things out with center Hassan Whiteside, who was benched a few days ago for loafing. Nice. But in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king – and Miami has more talent right now than the young and confused Suns. Don’t expect a game to remember, but the Heat should have enough for the road cover.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2017, 10:01 AM

DUSTIN HAWKINS

Free Play on Lakers +9 -115

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2017, 10:02 AM

LARRY NESS

My 1* Free Play is the LA Lakers (8:05 EST).

The 5-5 LA Lakers are in Boston to take on the 9-2 Celtics and while I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do definitely expect the young but hungry visiting side to keep this one competitive down the stretch.
LA comes in with momentum and confidence as well after back-to-back victories, most recently a convincing 107-102 win at home on Sunday over the Grizzlies. Brook Lopez led the charge in that one with 21 points.
So far LA averages 106.5 PPG and concedes 107.3
The C’s opened the year with two straight losses, but have since won nine straight. Boston averages 103.5 PPG and concedes 94.5.
Kyrie Irving had 35 points and seven assists in the Celtics latest victory.
I’ll point out though that LA is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 when playing on two days rest (including 2-0 this season,) while Boston is interestingly just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 against the Pacific division.
A lot of new faces for both sides, but the Lakers young core is coming together with veteran big man Lopez leading the way.
I think we’re going to witness an all out war to the end in this one and will therefore recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Good luck…Larry

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2017, 10:02 AM

JOE DELPOPOLO
NCAA-F | Nov 08, 2017
Kent State vs. Western Michigan
UNDER 47 -115

Based on my Stat-Key Power Rating System and predictive math-model this game should go under the total. Both offenses are very poor as Kent St is #130 in ypp and WMU is #88 ypp. Don't see much offense in this one.
Western Michigan 33 Kent State 10

Wednesday 11-8-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 11-8-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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