Saturday 11-18-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

Nov 18 '17, 6:30 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Army vs North Texas
Play on: Army +3 -125 at Bovada

Army is having a great season, and own a 8-2 record on the campaign and are currently on a 6 game win streak, after 21-16 win over Duke at home last time out where they are undefeated on the season. ARMY is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games after playing a game at home.
Meanwhile, the Mean Green are also hot having won 6 of their L/7 games, but by no means have been consistent especially on defense where they have recently allowed Fl Atlantic to smack them for 69 points and Old Dominions inconsistent offense to put 38 points on them. Yes, N.Texas is off a big 48-10 win against winless UTEP last time out, but on the past have not done well after a big win . Note: NORTH TEXAS is 1-9 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more.
CFB Home favorites like North Texas - excellent offensive team ( 6.2 or more YPP) against a sub par defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are just 4-22 ATS 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors.
Play on Army to cover

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin

Nov 18 '17, 7:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Marshall vs Texas-San Antonio
Play on: Texas-San Antonio PK -110 at 5Dimes

1 Unit FREE PLAY on UTSA PK

The UTSA Roadrunners need another win to get bowl eligible. They have a tough road game at Louisiana Tech next week, so I think they realize they need to take care of business against Marshall here tonight. It's Senior Night and this is a veteran team that has accomplished quite a lot the past two seasons. The Roadrunners are better than their 5-4 record too when you consider all four of their losses have come by 7 points or less and by a combined 17 points. That's how close they are to being 9-0. I think they take their frustrations out on Marshall today, a team that isn't as good as their 7-3 record suggests. UTSA's defense is only allowing 293.7 yards pper game this season and they are outgaining their foes by 118 yards per game. Marshall is only outgaining foes by 50 yards per game. Give me UTSA.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Nov 18 '17, 8:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | UCLA vs USC
Play on: USC -16 -110 at betonline

My 1* Free Play is on USC (8:00 EST).
The 5-5 UCLA Bruins are at USC to take on the 9-2 Trojans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
UCLA comes in off a 44-34 victory over Aizona State, while USC most recently posted a 38-24 road win over Colorado last weekend.
Note that when these team’s met last year, it was USC that scored the relatively simple 36-14 victory.
The Bruins looked terrible on the defensive side in their win over Arizona State last Saturday, giving up 584 total yards, including 290 through the air. With a much more “winnable” game at home against 5-5 Cal in their season finale, QB Josh Rosen and company could be caught looking ahead.
The Trojans didn’t look overly impressive defensively last week either, giving up 486 total yards. But the unit came up big when it had to, bending but not breaking with two key INT’s (note that the defense has three picks over the last two games.) USC QB Sam Darnold was 21 of 34 for 329 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s.
I’ll point out that UCLA is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine off a win against a conference rival (including 0-2 ATS this year), while USC is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 37 points or more in its previous outing.
This is an important game for both teams, but there’s no way that USC takes the foot off the gas at this point. I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Consider the Trojans in this matchup.
Good luck…Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

Nov 18 '17, 2:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Iowa State vs Baylor
Play on: OVER 50½ -110

RED HOT 14-1 (93%) Football Run with star rated picks for Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach as he is 9-0 in NFL dating back to late afternoon games on 5 Nov and 5-1 in CFB dating back to late afternoon games on 11 Nov. Join RED HOT Rickenbach right after you check out this selection here. FREE PICK CFB Game #377/378 Saturday OVER the total in Baylor Bears vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 2:30 ET - The Cyclones have a great defense but they've struggled the past two weeks and, off of back to back losses and with only an "outside shot" at the Big 12 title game, the intensity is "off" now for Iowa State's defense. That is likely to spell trouble against a Baylor offense that is off of a deceiving final score versus Texas Tech last week. The Bears scored only 24 points but they did have over 500 yards of offense. The result is line value here and Baylor's defense will struggle considering Iowa State QB Kyle Kempt has been upgraded to probable for this game. The Bears have allowed at least 38 points in 4 of their last 5 games. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 this season in Baylor's games against teams with a winning record. The Cyclones are 6-3 to the over as a road favorite. I am aware that there will be some wind in Waco this afternoon but that is the only thing that prevented this play from being a star rated pick for me today. I do expect this to still fly over the total as it has been pushed far too low given the situation. FREE PICK on OVER the total in Baylor EARLY Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Ryan

Nov 18 '17, 7:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Texas A&M vs Ole Miss
Play on: OVER 68 -102

Ryan is fresh off his NFL Thursday Game of the Year 10 star winner and now has a behemoth play on the Saturday NCAAF card. The 10 star is the highest possible graded produced by the proven SIM Algorithm program. This play is backed by an 80% system and 13 SIM matching game situations with three combining for a 26-2 ATS record.
The Play and How to Play it:
The Play: ‘OVER’ Mississippi / Texas A&M (413)
The Matchup: Mississippi / Texas A&M
Start Time: 11-18-2017 7:00PM
SIM grading: 3 stars
Recommended Strategy: Play a 3 star amount taking the ‘OVER’.
Round Table Discussion Points
Same logic we used in taking over in the Ole Miss game last week applies again this week. Both teams come into this game scoring over 32 points per game. Jordan Ta’amu has come in for Shea Patterson and the Rebel passing game has not skipped a beat. Ta’amu has completed over 73% of his passes with 7 touchdowns and two interceptions in the last 3 games. Ole Miss has balanced receiving with 3 receivers piling up yards and scoring touchdowns this season and the passing game has opened up running lanes as the Rebels top 2 rushers are averaging over 5 yards per carry. The Rebels defense has not stopped anyone all season giving up close to 36 points per game. Ole Miss gives up over 250 yards per game and we look for Aggies running backs Williams and Ford to add to their 16 touchdowns on the season. The Aggies also bring big play ability with their Special Teams and we will see a lot of big plays in this one adding to the scoreboard lighting up in this SEC west battle in Oxford. Take Over 69 points in this SEC Conference game.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics
The following game situations match the SIM projections for the expected outcome of this game.
Mississippi is 9-1 ATS Over in games this season, plus 7.9 units
Mississippi is 8-0 ATS Over in games on grass this season, plus 8 units
Mississippi is 6-0 ATS Over in home lined games this season, plus 6 units
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Nov 18 '17, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Navy vs Notre Dame
Play on: Navy +18 -110 at betonline

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Navy +18

I certainly question Notre Dame's motivation this week after they came up woefully short in their 'game of the year' last week at Miami. They lost 41-8 to the Hurricanes in a complete no-show. Had they won that game, they would have been in line to make the four-team playoff. But now those dreams are crushed, and it's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat in time to face a pesky Navy team this week.

This is a Navy team that will fight you for four quarters, and I'm not sure Notre Dame will be ready for that kind of fight. This is one of many great Navy teams under Ken Niumatalolo, who would have a bigger job elsewhere by now if he didn't love it at Navy so much. His players certainly go to war for him every week.

The Midshipmen have gone 6-3 this season, and they were competitive in all three losses. They only lost 27-30 at Memphis as 3.5-point dogs, lost 21-31 at UCF as 10-point dogs, and lost 26-34 at Temple as 6-point favorites. Memphis is 8-1 this season, UCF is 9-0, and Temple is playing its best football of the year.

Following those three consecutive losses, Navy bounced back with a 43-40 win over an upstart SMU team. I think the fact that that final score was close is keeping this line higher than it should be. But it really wasn't as close as the final score as Navy led 34-11 at halftime and outgained the Mustangs by 133 yards. The Midshipmen rushed for a whopping 559 yards in the win.

Both teams love rely almost exclusively on the run to move the football, which will help shorten the game and keep Navy in it. Navy averages 370 rushing yards per game while Notre averages 303. But it's worth nothing that the Fighting Irish's leading rusher Josh Adams got hurt against Miami last week and may not be at 100%. That puts even more pressure on shaky QB Brandon Wimbush and the Notre Dame offense.

Navy has been decent at stopping the run, giving up 166 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry against teams that average 212 yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season, holding them to 46 yards per game less than their season averages. Notre Dame is only holding opponents to 35 rushing yards per game less than their season averages. The weakness of Navy's defense is through the air, but Notre Dame won't be able to exploit it because they only average 52% completions and 168 passing yards per game.

Navy is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games off a close win by 3 points or less. Notre Dame is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games after trailing its previous game by 17 points or more at halftime. The Fighting Irish are 0-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last two seasons.

Each of the last four meetings were decided by 17 points or less. Navy has only lost twice in the last 10 meetings to Notre Dame by more than 17 points. The road team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings. The Midshipmen are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 trips to South Bend. Bet Navy Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Nov 18 '17, 6:30 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Army vs North Texas
Play on: North Texas -2½ -115 at 5Dimes

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on North Texas -3

The Key: My favorite thing about North Texas in this game against Army is the fact that the Mean Green are very familiar with the Black Knights. That's because they played twice last year, once in the regular season and once in the bowl game. North Texas pulled the 35-18 upset at Army as 17.5-point dogs, but lost the rematch 31-38 as 10.5-point dogs. It was impressive that they pretty much validated their win by taking the Black Knights to the wire in the rematch when it was clear that Army was the more motivated team. I don't expect Army to be as motivated here because they are coming off two huge wins against Air Force and Duke. And they have their biggest game on deck against Navy. North Texas has been a great team this year, averaging 6.4 YPP on offense and giving up only 5.5 YPP on defense. Army averages 6.0 YPP on offense and gives up 6.0 YPP on defense. I really think the Mean Green are the better team, and they're playing at home here. Take North Texas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Freddy Wills

Nov 18 '17, 7:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Texas A&M vs Ole Miss
Play on: Texas A&M +125 at 5Dimes

Texas A&M +125 1% Free Play
Texas A&M is a different offense with Nick Starkel back at QB and it really makes the entire team better. It will also help Starkel that his offense will be able to run the ball which hasn't been the case of late. Here they'll face Ole Miss who is 125th in rushing yards allowed.
Ole Miss is 5-5 and can't go to a bowl game so their motivation is beyond this game towards the Egg Bowl against Miss State. Clearly a look ahead spot and we are getting value because the offense has not missed a beat since Shea Patterson was lost for the season. However, QB Jordan Ta'amu has faced pass defenses ranked 110, 96, and 108. Here he faced A&M who ranks 75th, not good, but A&M is ranked 4th at getting to the QB, and Ole Miss 85th at protecting their QB. Ole Miss should have some mistakes in this one. Ole Miss -7 TO margin to A&M's +6 TO margin. A&M really needs to win in November to save their coaches job. Here they are in a good match-up against a poor defense. They have struggled against good defenses not the bad ones. I expect the Aggies to win this game outright.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vic Duke

Nov 18 '17, 7:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Florida International vs Florida Atlantic
Play on: Florida International +14½ -110 at 5Dimes

FIU/FAU 7:00: Going to give the edge to Butch Davis in the battle of the recycled coaches. Davis is equipped with a respectable defense that can limit FAU weapons - RB Singletary and QB Driskel. Realize Kiffin's bunch puts points up on the board but this is one of the better defenses he'll deal with in the C-USA. On the other hand, Kiffin's defense has been shaky and he's thin at corner. We'll look for QB McGough to find his rhythm. The Golden Panthers are 5-1 ATS in this series and the dog has won 5 straight. Butch's veteran team is getting two touchdowns and that's good value.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Nov 18 '17, 7:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | LSU vs Tennessee
Play on: LSU -15½ -110 at GTBets

1* Free Play on LSU -15½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jesse Schule

Nov 18 '17, 7:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Connecticut vs Boston College
Play on: UNDER 51 -110

BC vs UCONN Free Pick November 18, 2017.

The Boston College Eagles were flying high during a three game winning streak, beating Louisville, Virginia and Florida State. Starting quarterback Anthony Brown threw for 275 yards and three TDs on 19-of-24 passing in the win over the Cavs. He suffered a season ending injury in last week's loss to NC State, and that could put a serious damper on the Eagles air attack. Backup Darius Wade threw for just 82 yards on 8-of-15 passing in the loss to the Wolfpack. The Eagles likely won't need to have any success passing the ball in order to defeat the UCONN Huskies. Heavy rain and wind in the forecast could also force both these teams to concentrate more on running the football. Boston College has won five straight meetings between the two schools, including a 30-0 home win last season. They have failed to reach the total in three straight, and the total for this game is higher than it was in all three of those previous contests.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Nov 18 '17, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Purdue vs Iowa
Play on: Purdue +8 -110 at Bovada

Free pick on Purdue +
I like the value here with the Boilermakers catching over a touchdown against the Hawkeyes on Saturday. Even after an ugly loss at Wisconsin this past Saturday, Iowa is still getting love from the oddsmakers and the public for what they did two weeks ago against Ohio State. As great as the Hawkeyes played in that game against the Buckeyes, I think that was more of Ohio State just not showing up mentally ready to play that game.
We don't have to worry about the Boilermakers not showing up, as Purdue's bowl hopes are on the line, as they need to win out to become bowl eligible. While the Boilermakers are just 4-6 overall and 1-4 in their last 5, I have really liked what I've seen out of this team and most importantly I think this is a great matchup for Purdue.
Iowa's a physical offensive team that needs to be able to run the ball to open up the passing game. We saw that last week against Wisconsin, when they had just 25 yards rushing and 44 yards passing. Purdue's defense is a lot better than you would expect for a 4-6 team and their strength is stopping the run, as they rank 36th in the country giving up just 139.4 ypg.
The offense for Purdue has been limited at times, but I think Brohm will be able to put together a game plan here to attack the Hawkeyes. Let's not forget the Badgers aren't a great offensive team and they put up nearly 400 yards on Iowa's defense. The other big key here is I think this Hawkeyes team is in a bad spot off those two monster games against Ohio State and Wisconsin and a big rivalry game on deck at Nebraska. I think the Boilermakers have a legit shot at winning this game, making this an easy play given the line. Take Purdue!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Hunter

Nov 18 '17, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Kentucky vs Georgia
Play on: Kentucky +21½ -106 at 5Dimes

*3 Star Free Pick* The Georgia Bulldogs were beaten badly by Auburn last week. Georgia though still has a chance to play in the playoffs if they beat Alabama in the SEC title game. Georgia has two big games coming up. They play against rival Georgia Tech next weekend. They play Alabama the week after that. It would be easy for them to take it easy on Kentucky in this spot.
Kentucky has actually played well on the road. The Wildcats won at South Carolina. Kentucky also won big at Vanderbilt last week. I don't think this game will be really close, but I also don't think Georgia will drill Kentucky here.
Georgia plays at one of the five slowest tempo's in the country. The Bulldogs played relatively close games against Appalachian State and South Carolina at home. Look for them to win, but fail to cover this big number. There are far more important games ahead for Georgia.
Take Kentucky.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Nov 18 '17, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Georgia Tech vs Duke
Play on: Georgia Tech -6½ -115 at 5Dimes

1* on Georgia Tech -6½ -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Allen

Nov 18 '17, 7:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Texas A&M vs Ole Miss
Play on: Ole Miss -2½ -115 at BMaker

Jeff Allen's Free Selection for Saturday is on Ole Miss
Looking for Ole Miss to keep up its series domination on Senior Day in Oxford. The Rebs have owned the last three meetings (including last year on a FG with 37 seconds remaining) and have covered all five games since A&M entered the SEC. New Reb QB Ta'amu throwing for 389 ypg. since taking over three back. Matt Luke has done a great job with a program circling the drain after the Hugh Freeze "affair" and other off the field player transgressions. The Rebs are 5-5 and need a win here to guarantee .500 season with a road game in the "Egg Bowl" on deck. Ole Miss wins by a touchdown.
World champion handicapper Jeff Allen is having a big week and raging in all sports. An all-sports subscription saves you money and makes you money while getting every play in every sport.