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3-Unit Play. Take #730 Maryland (-5) over Butler (8:30 p.m., Wednesday, Nov. 15)
1-Unit Play. Take #737 Nevada (-5) over Santa Clara (10 p.m., Wednesday, Nov. 15)
1-Unit Play. Take #758 Washington State (-6.5) over Seattle (9 p.m., Wednesday, Nov. 15)
I have leans on Bucknell, Citadel, Minnesota and the 'over' in the Washington State-Seattle game.
You have to wonder how many points these two teams can possibly score here tonight...Nevada loves to run and they have scored 88pts in each of the first two games...If Santa Clara wants to run here at home this game flies over the total..
Let's talk Nevada first here...The Wolfpack almost force you to play fast..If you watched the first two games they played the 1st half of action in each game was a bit slow, but once Nevada made the adjustments they needed at the break the 2nd half of each game went on a frantic pace..I expect a bit of that here tonight...Although I wouldn't be surprised if the entire game was back and forth....Nevada has shot very well from the floor as both games they shot 46% or above..The big factor for them is how strong they are at the basket..They get easy looks and beat the defense on a ton of possessions leading to trips to the foul line..Nevada hit the free throws line 26 & 44 times in the first two games..Plus they are shooting fromt eh line at 80.5%...Very good and we will need those free throws tonight...I also like the fact that Nevada isn't chasing 3pt shots right now..They don't have that clutch shooter form the outside, so they are attacking the basket at a high pace..It can only lead to fast points, trips to the free throw line and a frantic pace back in the other direction.
Santa Clara is a bit foggy right now...They scored 120pts in the first game of the season, but whatever they did worked..In order to score that many points you need to make every shot or move at a high rate of speed...Well they didn't make them all, but they did shoot very well from the floor..Now a key factor for me is a team shooting 3's...Well Canta Clara shot 27 of them and made 10....I'm guessing they will be the ones shooting the 3's tonight and Nevada will force the pace of the rebound...Santa Clara even against a team we never heard of committed 27 fouls..That's going to stay about the same or go up against a team like Nevada who forces you to put them on the line.
Big key for me with overs are teams that assist the basketball..Both teams have looked impressive early on moving the basketball....I think this is an area that Nevada can and will be exposed tonight..Nevada really could careless to play any type of lock down defense..Clara has 25 assists in the first game and if they get even close to that, they will hit a high number of points for us tonight.
Santa Clara also made 29 trips to the charity stripe in the first game..Perhaps they are doing something to make the other team foul..I can tell you with the sloppy defense Nevada plays that Clara will be on the line tonight for sure adding buckets for us...Clara shot 82% from the line.
I don't see many angles here thažt say under..Not many at all..The over is the way to go in this one and nevada might try to hit 90 in this game..It will be a close game so the foul line will be key for us not only for the game, but right at the end as well.
This game has the 2-8 Tulsa at the 8-1 South Florida. South Florida is the best AAC team IMO and will get a chance to prove that versus UCF next week so possible letdown this week but I think this team is focused to blowout this Tulsa team as big as possible as they try to get into the top 25 and a biggest bowl game for the school. Tulsa has lost 3 straight games and although this is a super square play I think USF wins big Thursday as we take them for a nice 15* winner minus the points.
Love Jacksonville State here as a dog. They are a sleeper pick of mine to win the Ohio Valley and so far they are 2-0 and averaging 94 ppg on offense. They also are a beast on the road, at 21-7 ATS. Buffalo will have a hard time trading points here on the scoreboard and Jack. St just pounded Richmond on the road by 33 points. In every stat category that counts - Free throws - rebounds - Offense and Defense ppg numbers - fouls - rebounding are all in favor of Jacksville St.
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