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2-Unit Play. Take #514 Denver (-4.5) over L.A. Lakers (9 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 2)
Denver is a strong home play and his is a short line. It is interesting that the Nuggets are still favored without Milsap and Jokic. Don't worry about this, as they should still be favored. Playing on their home court is a big advantage for Denver. The Lakers aren't a good enough team to take advantage of a somewhat ?short handed? Nuggets team. Denver is still going to win this game by nearly double figures. The Nuggets will still be efficient in the half court and will actually push the tempo a bit more than normal. Lay the points here.
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**L.A. Lakers (+4 ½) over DENVER
Denver has was under-performing expectations early in the season even when they were healthy and now their best player, Nikola Jokic has joined Paul Millsap on the bench with an injury. PG Gary Harris is the other key component to the Nuggets, as his plus-minus is 2nd best to Jokic at +60 points (Jokic at +76) but Harris has a PM of -10 points in 94.7 minutes when he’s on the court without Jokic and Millsap and the rest of the team is -42 points in 145.7 minutes without Harris, Jokic, and Millsap, so the Nuggets should get outplayed by the Lakers when Harris takes a breather. I’d favor the Nuggets by just 1 point with current rotations (whether Nuggets’ Wilson Chandler plays or not – Denver is actually worse with him and it looks like he’ll play). Based on this year’s games I’d favor the Nuggets by only 4 ½ points with Jokic playing, so there is certainly line value on the Lakers with him out. I’ll take the Lakers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more.
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***PORTLAND (-7) over New Orleans
The line is higher than you might expect because Anthony Davis is out tonight with a hip injury he suffered last night in Utah. However, the adjustment for Davis being out (from -3.5 points) is not nearly enough. New Orleans is a below average team with superstar Anthony Davis and they’re a horrible team without him, especially with Rajon Rondo now starting. As I mentioned last night, Rondo is a significantly negative impact player over his entire career and so far this season has been no different, as New Orleans has been outscored by 41 points in Rondo’s 204.5 minutes on the court (-9.6 points per 48). Davis is obviously the key to the Pels, as evidenced by his team leading +76 plus-minus number. New Orleans’ second-best PM is Jrue Holiday’s +24 points but Holiday is -37 points in 189.7 minutes when Anthony Davis is not on the court with him (-9.4 points per 48 minutes) and the rest of the team is -66 points in 138.5 minutes (-22.9 points per 48) when Holiday and Davis are both on the bench. Those numbers are even worse when you throw Rondo into the mix (Holiday and Rondo are -27 points in just 38.4 minutes without Davis) and the Pelicans may not have much energy tonight after playing a close game last night in high altitude in Utah. Portland should be favored by at least 12 points in this game and I’ll take the Blazers in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points and for 2-Stars up to -9 points.
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