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4-Star Colts at Bills OVER 39.5 - The Bills are starting Nathan Peterman which is a contributing factor to this low total. Buffalo, however, should not be passive on offense. If they are, they might lose to the Colts and drop below 500. The line value is with the OVER.
The Bills are 17-0 OU as a FG-plus favorite facing an opponent that is off three consecutive losses and the total is 47 points or less, zooming over the number by an average of 14.06 ppg. They played three games in this spot last season and the final scores were 45-16 over the Niners, 28-21 over the Jaguars and 33-13 over the Browns.
Also, Buffalo is 11-0 OU (9.45 ppg) at home after they were outgained by their opponent. The SDQL text is:
team=Bills and H and p:TY=20151018
This one is 4-0 OU THIS season.
The Colts are off a 30-10 loss to the Jaguars in which Brissett was picked off twice. This, however, does not compel the Colts to adopt a conservative attack; quite the opposite. Indianapolis is 19-0 OU on the road off a double-digit loss in which they committed two-plus turnovers and had at least 25 minutes of possession time. The SDQL text is:
team=Colts and A and p:margin<=-10 and 2<=p:TO and p:TOP>25*60 and season>=1992
The Colts' points scored has dropped steadily over their past four games (23, 20, 17, 16, 10). The public overplays the under in this situation. Over the past seven seasons, the league is 18-0-1 OU (+10.50 ppg) on the road on turf after a double-digit loss as a road when they scored fewer points than expected in each of their last two games.
The value is with the OVER.
MTi FORECAST: BILLS 27 Colts 24
4-Star Colts at Bills OVER 39.5 - The Bills are starting Nathan Peterman which is a contributing factor to this low total. Buffalo, however, should not be passive on offense. If they are, they might lose to the Colts and drop below 500. The line value is with the OVER.
The Bills are 17-0 OU as a FG-plus favorite facing an opponent that is off three consecutive losses and the total is 47 points or less, zooming over the number by an average of 14.06 ppg. They played three games in this spot last season and the final scores were 45-16 over the Niners, 28-21 over the Jaguars and 33-13 over the Browns.
Also, Buffalo is 11-0 OU (9.45 ppg) at home after they were outgained by their opponent. The SDQL text is:
team=Bills and H and p:TY=20151018
This one is 4-0 OU THIS season.
The Colts are off a 30-10 loss to the Jaguars in which Brissett was picked off twice. This, however, does not compel the Colts to adopt a conservative attack; quite the opposite. Indianapolis is 19-0 OU on the road off a double-digit loss in which they committed two-plus turnovers and had at least 25 minutes of possession time. The SDQL text is:
team=Colts and A and p:margin<=-10 and 2<=p:TO and p:TOP>25*60 and season>=1992
The Colts' points scored has dropped steadily over their past four games (23, 20, 17, 16, 10). The public overplays the under in this situation. Over the past seven seasons, the league is 18-0-1 OU (+10.50 ppg) on the road on turf after a double-digit loss as a road when they scored fewer points than expected in each of their last two games.
The value is with the OVER.
MTi FORECAST: BILLS 27 Colts 24
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