Thursday 12-14-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Ryan

Dec 14 '17, 8:25 PM in 3h
NFL | Broncos vs Colts
Play on: Broncos -2½ -115 at BMaker

The Play and How to Play it:
The Play: Denver (301)
The Matchup: DENVER (4 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 10)
Start Time: Week 15 Thursday, 12/14/2017 8:25 PM
SIM grading: 4 stars on a 3 to 10 star grading scale.
Recommended Strategy: Place a 4 star wager amount on Denver using the line.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics
Colts will have trouble establishing long scoring drives against Denver. It starts for the Denver Defense with Bradley Roby, who ranks second in the NFL in forced incompletions. When QB’s have tried to complete passes with Roby defending they have been unsuccessful in 34% of those attempts. So, logically, we do expect that T.Y. Hilton will not see many targets given that Roby will more than likely be the defender.
The Colts ranks 31st gaining just 291 yards per game and will be going against the best defense in the NFL that allows 281 YPG.
Game Intelligence Analytics
The following database system query has gone 38-13 ATS hitting 75% winners and has made $2,370 wagering $100 per game since 2007. The system has also produced a consistent 23-8 ATS record over the past five seasons.
Play against all teams in conference games where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS).
After going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games.
SIM Matching Game Situations
Colts are a terrible 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games.
Denver is a solid 52-30 ATS (+19.0 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards.
Colts are 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards-per-attempt.
Colts are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they commit 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays

Dec 14 '17, 7:35 PM in 2h
NBA | Pistons vs Hawks
Play on: Pistons -4 -115 at BMaker

1* Free Play on Pistons -4 -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Franco

Dec 14 '17, 7:35 PM in 2h
NBA | Pistons vs Hawks
Play on: Pistons -3½ -108 at 5Dimes

Pistons
The Detroit Pistons are in an offensive funk that has seen them average 92.9 points during a seven-game slide, including two straight losses in which they failed to reach 85 points. The Pistons will try to snap the slide on the road when they visit the Atlanta Hawks on Thursday.
Detroit was run over 103-84 at home by the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday while playing what coach Stan Van Gundy called "extremely bad basketball," and the players are searching for answers for the offensive funk.
The Pistons could be in for a welcome respite from tough defenses against the Hawks, who allow an average of 109.3 points and surrendered at least 110 in each of their last five games - four losses. Atlanta had the misfortune of running into the red-hot Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday and gave up 20 3-pointers while dropping a 123-114 decision.
Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points and are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Dec 14 '17, 8:05 PM in 2h
NBA | Lakers vs Cavs
Play on: Lakers +9½ -110 at BMaker

1* Free Pick on Lakers +9½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Dec 14 '17, 10:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Santa Clara vs USC
Play on: USC -14½ -115 at betonline

Dave’s Thursday Free Play:
1* on USC -14.5
The Key: The USC Trojans will be hungry for a victory tonight. Expect a focused effort from them after losing 3 straight to Texas A&M, SMU and Oklahoma coming into this game. This will be a much easier task against 3-6 Santa Clara, which has a 14-point loss to Sam Houston State, a 10-point loss to Idaho, a 30-point loss to Nevada and a loss to Alaska Anchorage. Their only 3 wins have all come at home against Laverne, Northern Arizona and Arkansas Pine Bluff. They stand no chance of keeping this game close against the Trojans on the road here Thursday night. USC is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. Santa Clara is 0-6 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a favorite. Take USC.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

Dec 14 '17, 7:05 PM in 1h
NHL | Sabres vs Flyers
Play on: Flyers -170 at 5Dimes

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Game #6 Thursday Free Pick Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) vs Buffalo Sabres @ 7:05 ET - As long-time followers know I mostly play totals and underdogs in money line sports like NHL and MLB. When I do play a favorite it is generally a small favorite. I rarely lay big prices and this is especially true with my star rated picks. On Thursday, although this is NOT a star rated pick, I am still only stepping out with this play because the situation is perfectly set up and we're getting a price in the -170 range on a team that, in this spot, easily could be in the -200 to -250 range. The Sabres are off of a rare win. How rare? It was just their 8th win of the season. How likely is it that Buffalo wins two straight? The odds are somewhere between slim to none as that has only happened one time this entire season and that was when the Sabres were at home off of a win. In this case Buffalo is on the road off of a win and they're facing a Flyers team that is known for being one of the streakiest clubs in the NHL. That said, Philadelphia is currently on one of those streaky stretches and they've won 4 straight after losing 10 straight previously. Look for the Flyers to make it 5 in a row as the Sabres have lost 11 of 14 road games with a posted total of 5.5 goals this season. Also, Buffalo has lost 7 of 8 when off of a divisional game this season. Free Pick on PHILADELPHIA on the money line

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels

Dec 14 '17, 7:35 PM in 2h
NBA | Knicks vs Nets
Play on: Nets -110 at GTBets

Free Play on Nets -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Dec 14 '17, 8:05 PM in 2h
NBA | Kings vs Wolves
Play on: OVER 202½ -110

1* on Kings vs Wolves over 202½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Dec 14 '17, 8:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-B | South Dakota vs Northern Arizona
Play on: South Dakota -11½ -107 at betonline

Free pick on South Dakota -
I got no problem laying this big number with the Coyotes on the road against the Lumberjacks. South Dakota is off to an impressive 9-3 start with 2 of those 3 losses coming on the road against TCU and Duke. They only lost by 5 to the Horned Frogs as a 17.5-point dog and by 16 as a 23-point dog to the Blue Devils. This is hands down one of the best teams in the Summit League, led by junior Matt Mooney, who was a 1st-Team All-Summit guard as a sophomore last year.
As for Northern Arizona, the start to the 2017 season hasn't gone so well. The Lumberjacks are just 2-8. While they had a brutal stretch to start with road games at Arizona, Arizona State and Kansas State in their first 4 games, unlike the Coyotes, they weren't competitive in any of those games. They lost by 34 to Arizona, 35 to ASU and 22 to K-State. They also have a 32-point loss to Santa Clara and 28-point loss to San Diego.
Northern Arizona comes in giving up 80.3 ppg, and are only averaging 64.1 ppg and shooting a mere 38% from the field. In comparison, the Coyotes average 81.7 ppg and are only allowing a mere 67.2 ppg. Take South Dakota!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Timothy Black

Dec 14 '17, 8:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Valparaiso vs Northwestern
Play on: Valparaiso +11 -105 at Bovada

1* Free Play