Sunday 12-17-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
NFL | Dec 17, 2017
Titans vs. 49ers
49ers PK -125

NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: A plus .500 team off of a win as a home dog. 90-149-8 ATS 37.7% in database history.

(EXTRA) NFL TEAM TREND OF THE WEEK: Perhaps even more powerful than that system...
The Patriots are 19-0 ATS (+16.05 ppg) when they are off a loss and they are not laying more than a field goal.

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TEDDY COVERS

Take Minnesota -10.5 (#312)

Cincinnati hasn’t been a double digit underdog in any game since 2008; a testament to the strength of Marvin Lewis’s tenure with the team. Of course it is probably worth noting that Cinci went 0-3 ATS in their final three tries as double digit dogs nearly a decade ago; non-competitive in defeat.

The Bengals were non-competitive in defeat again last week, walloped 33-7 at home by a Bears team that came into the game with a 3-9 record. The quotes coming out of Cinci’s locker room after the defeat weren’t particularly positive, to put it mildly. Andy Dalton: “We didn’t have a lot of energy.” George Iloka: “We came out flat.” Brandon LaFell: “We laid an egg.” So what changes this week? Not much!

Cinci is an injured riddled mess right now. Their entire starting linebacking corps has been unable to practice this week. Don’t expect LB’s Vontaze Burfict, Kevin Minter or Nick Vigil to suit up on Sunday. CB Dre Kilpatrick is still in concussion protocol, unlikely to see action. CB Darqueze Dennard was limited on Thursday, as was safety Shawn Williams. RB’s Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard are both banged up, as is TE Tyler Kroft, DE Carlos Dunlap and offensive tackle Eric Winston.

It’s looking more and more like Marvin Lewis’s extended tenure as the Bengals head coach is coming to a close. Veteran teams at the tail end of disappointing seasons with a lame duck head coach are not generally ‘bet-on’ squads on the highway against elite defensive foes. And when that elite defensive foe is coming off a loss, like the Vikings are, it’s a particularly bad spot for the road underdog.

While Cinci’s injury list continues to grow, the Vikings should get starting CB Xavier Rhodes back in the lineup this week, and they could have LT Reilly Reiff and TE Kyle Rudolph healthy as well. Right tackle Mike Remmers and center Pat Elflein are both expected back in the starting lineup this week after missing the game against Carolina last Sunday.

And the Vikings have proven they can beat teams by margin. Eight of their ten wins have come by eight points or more; not a squad giving up late backdoor touchdowns to kill their pointspread backers. This is NOT too much of a price to lay backing a legit Super Bowl contender at home against a team that showed nothing but ‘quit’ last week. Take the Vikings.

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LARRY NESS

My 1* Free Play is on the Tennessee Titans (4:25 EST).

The 8-5 Tennessee Titans are in San Francisco to take on the 3-10 49ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

The 49ers look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after winning three of their last four.

The Titans on the other hand will be the more “desperate” team today as last week’s loss at Arizona dropped them a game behind Jacksonville for the AFC South lead.

Tennessee’ QB Marcus Mariota bruised his knee in last week’s loss: “Frustration is an understatement,” Mariota assessed afterwards. “The defense played lights out, special teams did their job and I have been hurting our team and I have to find ways to get better and improve.”

San Fran QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 2-0 for his new team, last week he went 20 of 33 for 334 yards, one TD and one INT in the 26-16 victory over the Texans.

I’ll point out though that Tennessee is still 6-4 ATS in its last ten non-conference games, while San Francisco is only 2-7 ATS in its last nine in the same position.

The book is out on Garoppolo now, who I think will struggle against the Titans aggressive defense. Mariota is under a great deal of pressure to step up and perform this week and I think he’ll be up to the task.

For all the reasons listed above, consider a play on Tennessee in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

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MARC LAWRENCE

Play - Houston Texans (Game 315).

Edges - Texans: 5-1 ATS last six games as a visitor in this series… Jaguars: 0-4 ATS home in division games following consecutive home games; and NFL home teams are 6-12 SU and 3-15 ATS in division games after facing Pete Carroll’s Seattle Seahawks … With Texans’ QB TJ Yates 5-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career, we recommend a 1* play on Houston. Thank you and good lucks as always.

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, December 17, 2017

NFL (309) GREEN BAY PACKERS VS (310) CAROLINA PANTHERS

Take: (310) CAROLINA PANTHERS

Reason: Your free play for Sunday, Decmeber 17, 2017 is in the NFL Contest between the Green Bay Packers and the Carolina Panthers. The Packers are on life support in the NFC playoff picture. They MUST win out to even have a remote chance at making the postseason. The good news is that QB Aaron Rodgers returns today and just how rusty he will be is yet to be determined. You really cannot underestimate just how important Rodgers return to the lineup is for the Packers. Plus, his legs will be fresh with the time off. Carolina is coming off that big win over the Vikings last week, 31-24. It was the Panthers fifth win in their last six games. Carolina's offense has been very good too, scoring at least 26 points in their last three games. QB Cam Newton has only one INT in his last five games. I look for both of these teams to score points in bunches today. I'm not convinced that Rodgers return is enough to beat a very good Carolina team on their home turf. I'm taking Carolina here and laying the points.

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BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Sunday, Dec 17 is:

Miami Dolphins +3.5 over Buffalo Bills.

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Arthur Ralph Sports

SUN Vikings -10

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JOEY JUICE

Nick Foles? No problem!

Let's back the Philadelphia Eagles who have clinched the NFC East and now look to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs today when they head into MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Eagles are coming off off a huge 43-35 road win over the Rams, while the Giants lost to the Cowboys at home by a score of 30-10.

Nick Foles is a capable backup and is more than good enough to destroy this Giants team. Remember, back in 2013/14 he played for the Eagles and had 27 TD passes to just two INTs.

Besides, the Eagles run game is 2nd in the league and the Giants are 31st in the league against the run. The Eagles running game will set up Foles and make it much easier for him to have success passing the ball.

The Eagles will want to send a message with this game to the rest of the league that they will be just fine with Wentz out. The Giants just won’t have enough offense or defense to keep this one close.

Eagles by 2 touchdowns in this one.

2* PHILADELPHIA

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JEFF BENTON

My Sunday freebie is the Vikings minus the big number as they look to clinch the NFC North Division, and also get back into consideration for the overall # 1 seed in the NFC.

Minnesota has played one - just one - home game since October 29th, and they are back home after 3 straight away games. Last Sunday saw the Vikings 8-game winning streak (7 game cover streak) halted in a 31-24 loss at Carolina.

Expect the Vikings to handle matters against a Cincinnati team that sure looks like their loss at home to Pittsburgh a few weeks back is having a residual effect on this team. Cincy was trounced to a tune of 33-7 on their home field last weekend by the Chicago Bears, and the Bengals 5-13 spread mark their last 18 against non-division opponents does not bode well for this 1pm contest at US Bank Stadium.

Minnesota is 12-3 against the spread their last 15 versus the AFC, and with another road game coming up at Green Bay next Saturday, look for the Vikings to get things together today and clinch their second division title in the past 3 years.

Vikings by at least 14-points.

2* MINNESOTA

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TOMMY BRUNSON

After 3 in a row on the road, Minnesota is finally back home for just their second home game since October 29th!

Going to look for the Vikes to be able to generate some offense against a Bengals team that allowed Chicago to post 33 points on them last week in Cincinnati. While that game did hold Under the total due to the fact Cincy could only muster a touchdown in their 33-7 lay-down performance, the Bengals have played 2 of their last 3, and 3 of their last 5 overall Over the posted total.

Minnesota is fresh off an Over in Carolina, and have landed Over the total in 5 of their last 7 games.

The Vikings offensive line is now showing some dings and bruises, and that means QB - Case Keenum is starting to get a little pressured and making some bad decisions - 2 interceptions and a lost fumble in last Sunday's game against the Panthers - so count on there being some short-field scoring opportunities for Cincy in this game.

The Over is 5-1 in Minnesota's last 6 games following a straight up loss, and the Over is also 5-1 the Vikings last 6 games when facing a team with a losing road record.

This game's total is hanging right around 6 combined touchdowns, and I feel the home-starved host is good for at least 4 TD's and a couple of field goals. I fully expect the visitor to show some pride and post a few scores of their own.

This one is Over by the end of the third quarter.

3* CINCINNATI-MINNESOTA OVER

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VIC DUKE
NFL | Dec 17, 2017
Patriots vs. Steelers
OVER 53½

Patriots/Steelers 4:25: Both QBs - Brady and Roethlisberger have had huge games against their respective opponents. Today, I see a similar result. The Steelers miss Shazier bad. Last week Baltimore, laboring in the bottom of NFL offensive production, thrashed them for 413 yards! Brady has Gronk back today and that will be a huge boost. New acquisition Kenny Britt could also be available for extra depth. Brady sports a 114.8 QB rating with 70% completion and 21:3 TD:INT ratio. On the other hand, Roethlisberger has been nearly as hot vs NE. He sports a solid 98.2 QB rating, 63% completions and a 15:5 TD:INT ratio. Patriots have been decimated by injuries defensively, and are playing many young players. That should translate into getting scorched by the number of Steeler skill weapons including Antonio Brown, RB Bell, TE James. Steelers 8-1 O/U as dogs of less than 7 points against a .500 or greater opponent. Series 5-2 O/U at Heinz Field.

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CHIP CHIRIMBES

Cincinnati at Minnesota1:00 ET

Bengals (+) over Vikings

Okay, we all won with the Bears over Cincinnati last week as 'we' were well aware the 'Cowardly' Bengals would just mail it in after blowing the huge lead to the Steelers. This week after last week's embarrassment they will bounce back with a professional effort as they are 5-1 ATS following a double-digit loss. It is ugly but it should be a winner...take CINCINNATI!

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SCOTT SPREITZER
NFL | Dec 17, 2017
Jets vs. Saints
Jets+16½ -115

I'm recommending a play on the New York Jets plus the points on Sunday. The look-ahead line at Westgate was 10 1/2 for this contest and we see the Saints as a 16 1/2 point favorite as we post this play. It's also a tough spot for New Orleans with this game sandwiched between two games against the Falcons. The Jets' offense sputtered in Bryce Petty's start in place of the injured Josh McCown, but Petty is likely to have more control of the offense this week and will be up to NFL speed after facing the NFL's top-ranked defense in Denver. The Saints aren't bad on defense, overall, but you can run on them and I believe the ground game will fare better, allowing Petty a better chance to manage the game. Finally, NFL home teams have covered just 77 of the last 202 chances if they're off a SU road loss and their opponent is off a road loss by 14 or more points. I'm recommending a play on the Jets plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

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MIKE LUNDIN
NFL | Dec 17, 2017
Packers vs. Panthers
Packers+3

The Green Bay Packers have been without their star quarterback Aaron Rodgers for the last seven weeks, but he's expected to be back under center for Sunday's matchup with the Carolina Panthers.

Rodgers has been out since breaking his collarbone in a Week 6 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, but the Pack added the All-Pro quarterback to the active roster yesterday, and with that roster move he's officially clear to start Sunday.

The Packers have kept their playoff hopes alive (although slim) by going 3-4 in his absence and they're just one game out of a wild-card spot in the NFC. I think Rodgers' return will give Green Bay a massive boost giving the visitors the edge in this contest.

The Carolina Panthers have won four of their last five and defeated Minnesota 31-24 last week. Possible let down spot here after snapping Minnesota's eight-game win streak, and I'm taking the points on the Packers in this matchup. We can also note that the underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 in this series.

My free pick is on Green Bay Packers.

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Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach

NFL Game #322 Sunday Free Pick Cleveland Browns (+) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 1 ET

The Ravens are off of a tough 1-point loss at Pittsburgh where they allowed 545 yards. The Browns are also off of a tough loss (in OT) versus Green Bay last week but at least Cleveland gets the benefit of being at home again this week. Baltimore is traveling for the 2nd straight week while the Browns are hosting for a 2nd straight week. Cleveland is going to continue to fight hard as they battle for that elusive first win of the season and this is their final chance to do it for the home fans as their last two games of the season are on the road. The Ravens are 3-8 ATS as a favorite between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Baltimore is also an ugly 4-10 ATS in games against teams with a losing record. As a road fave of 3.5 to 7 points, the Ravens are 8-15 ATS. Free Pick CLEVELAND