Friday 12-22-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Buzz Kill]

MegaLocks Friday night Bowl write-up..............

2017 IDAHO BOWL – CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs WYOMING

WYOMING -3 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (45.5)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em
Sagarin ratings – Wyoming -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Wyoming 24.25 Central Michigan 21.25

The Game
Potato Bowl time, yo !
This is a sneaky-good Friday afternoon match-up as Wyoming battles Central Michigan on the SMURF TURF in Boise, Idaho. Wyoming had a fine 7-5 record considering that their star QB Josh Allen missed some time with injury. FIRE UP CHIPS finished up with FIVE straight wins and ended up 2nd in the competitive MAC West.
The Match-Up
Wyoming offense vs Central Michigan defense
It’s been really tough to watch the Cowboys’ offense this season. Even with a healthy Josh Allen under center the Pokes struggled to move the ball on the ground and through the air. The big story is the status of Allen. Right now he is expected to play, but as you know, a lot can change between now and game day when you are talking about a potential first round NFL draft pick nursing a “sore shoulder”. We did our work assuming he will play, although to be honest, we would be a little surprised if he risked a ton of money by playing in this game.
Allen has struggled due to a lack of weapons at RB or WR. Allen had just 13 TD passes this season (missed time due to injury), their leading RB has 474 yards and their top WR has just 520. Only one receiver had a catch of over 50 yards and that was a yuuuuuuge 53 yard reception by CJ Johnson. The Pokes ended the season ranked #125 (!!) in total offense and managed just 4.7 yards per play (#11 Mountain West). They finished up the 2017 regular season #114 in 3rd down conversions.
FIRE UP CHIPS had an excellent season defensively finishing up ranked #2 in the MAC in yards per play allowed, #55 in total defense (FBS) and #7 in pass efficiency defense (FBS). Amaze your local sketchy massage parlor employee with this gem – Central Michigan was #1 in the FBS in forced turnovers. They allowed just 13 TD passes all season and picked off 19. It seems to us that with Josh Allen or NO Josh Allen the Pokes are going to struggle to score points.
Central Michigan offense vs Wyoming defense
FIRE UP CHIPS were pretty average statistically this season (#71 offense FBS) but they did heat up down the stretch scoring 56,35,42,42 and 31 in their final five games. QB Sugar Shane Morris is a mortal lock to clear 3,000 yards in this game and has been solid this year, although to be honest, we are not crazy about the 13 INTs. That is particularly true when going up against an excellent Wyoming defense that was #2 in the FBS in forced turnovers. FIRE UP CHIPS have a balanced offense with an underrated RB in J Ward (988 yards rushing, 41 receptions), a fine 1-2 punch at WR (C Willis, M Chapman 1,400 yards and 14 TDs combined) along with star TE Tyler Conklin who is healthy after missing a lot of the season due to injury. It is no secret that FIRE UP CHIPS started to roll on offense once he got healthy. The bad news ? The Wyoming defense is excellent (#22 FBS, #1 yards per play allowed in MW) and yielded just 3,13,14,13 and 20 points in their last five contests. They had a bit of a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run but were excellent defending the pass (T7 FBS – 10 TD passes allowed).
Motivation / Intangibles
Wyoming – This is a bit of a tough read. There is the Josh Allen distraction. And our Wyoming INSIDERS tell us that they are not super geeked up to be playing in Boise against a MAC opponent. Colorado St was close to home in their bowl game and we saw how much they loved it.
Grade – Below Average.
Central Michigan – It’s a LONG way from home. And it’s cold, yo. The good news ? They are on a roll and can play the “nobody respects us” card. The seniors on this team have unfinished business (0-3 last three years in bowl games).
Grade – Average to Above Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES

As noted above both teams are excellent at forcing turnovers and are ranked #1 and #2 in the FBS…..The combined turnover margin of these two squads is (+24)……Central Michigan only played five home games this season and are used to being road warriors……Close your eyes if there are field goals attempted from over 40 yards….The teams combined to go just 5/10 from that distance.
Summary
Two really scrappy teams. Let’s goooo !

Josh Allen. Will he play ? Will he sit ? We feel that FIRE UP CHIPS are the better team (it’s close) and that they can beat the Pokes regardless of who starts at QB. If Allen decides to pass on the game we think the Chips win the game by at least a TD.
Conclusion
Official play: Central Michigan +3 -106 (sent 5:12 pm EST Dec 19) (play down to +1.5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Aqueduct

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $55000 Class Rating: 87

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 10 BAD GUY 8/1

# 6 ODIN'S STEED 5/1

# 1 NOW A FACTOR 12/1

I think BAD GUY is a strong pick especially at a such a nice price. Recorded a solid speed figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest. ODIN'S STEED - Baker has this colt racing well and is a solid selection based on the decent Speed Figures garnered in route races as of late. Earning some nice money in dirt route contests. NOW A FACTOR - There is a strong possibility of an increase in speed as this gelding changes blinkers (on) for the first time.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Allowance - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $42000 Class Rating: 84

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 23, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 QUALITY PRODUCTION 2/1

# 1 MASTERLY 3/1

# 5 JONAS G. 6/1

QUALITY PRODUCTION looks to be a very strong contender. Has strong early speed and will most likely fare soundly versus this field. Should be given a shot - I like the figs from the last contest. This equine has a wonderful win percentage in dirt sprints. MASTERLY - Has strong Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a wager in this competition. Has a solid shot here if you like back class. JONAS G. - Going in a dirt sprint race gives this gelding a very good shot. Ought to come out sharp - I have liked the way this gelding has moved swiftly to the lead recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Fair Grounds - Race #5 - Post: 3:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating: 4

#2 ROUSSALKA (ML=6/1)
#1 HONOR BAR (ML=8/1)


ROUSSALKA - Glover has this filly signed up for the perfect event. HONOR BAR - Rode this thoroughbred on November 26th and Lanerie is back again in the irons in today's contest. The return on investment when Lanerie and Forster partner up is terrific.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SACRED STORM (ML=7/2), #4 DREAM GAL (ML=9/2), #3 DIVORCE (ML=5/1),

SACRED STORM - Really had to show me much more than that last time out. Never made much of an impact. DREAM GAL - This questionable contender will likely be at the back of the pack as this bunch crosses the finish. DIVORCE - Today's race is 6 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance race in the last couple months. Not the best of signals.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - HONOR BAR - Watch out for this filly. Forster gives her Lasix for the second straight time. My historical data says this thoroughbred should perform well today.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #2 ROUSSALKA on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #1 - Post: 12:55pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,800 Class Rating: 63

Rating: 4

#6 REQUEST A LAWYER (ML=6/1)


REQUEST A LAWYER - You probably want to toss out that last clash at Mountaineer Park on the mud where he finished out of the money. Should do well today without the slop. This animal is utmost in earnings per start (EPS). He looks solid in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 READY TO FIGHT (ML=4/5), #5 DAYJUR BEST (ML=5/1), #4 JODYNBUD (ML=8/1),

READY TO FIGHT - You always believe this animal has a shot to be victorious, but he fails most of the time. DAYJUR BEST - Equibase speed figures tell a tale of dropping physical condition. Should have at least finished in the money in the last two months in a sprint event to be worth the chance at nominal odds in a sprint. This questionable contender ran a mediocre speed figure last time out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely suffer defeat in today's race running that figure. JODYNBUD - Not easy to play any thoroughbred in a sprint race at 8/1 when he hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last two months. Don't feel this racer will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was substandard when compared with today's class figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #6 REQUEST A LAWYER to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 2

EXACTA &TRIFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 2-3) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)


Claiming $5,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 1:00P
(PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 22 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 22 ALLOWED2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 22 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, FOR EACH $250 TO $4,500 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY) (WINNERS PREFERRED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ASK ME I MIGHT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the to p three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CHAMPAGNE TIME: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WEATHERURNOT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3
ASK ME I MIGHT
9/5

7/2
6
CHAMPAGNE TIME
2/1

6/1
1
WEATHERURNOT
4/1

8/1
5
NORTHERN PRANCER
5/1

8/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
WEATHERURNOT
1

4/1
Front-runner
68

55

64.2

56.4

47.4
3
ASK ME I MIGHT
3

9/5
Front-runner
80

64

59.4

62.2

57.2
5
NORTHERN PRANCER
5

5/1
Trailer
76

67

63.2

63.2

55.2
6
CHAMPAGNE TIME
6

2/1
Trailer
78

58

32.2

62.2

56.2
4
STREET MIZ
4

6/1
Alternator/Non-contender
81

75

39.8

51.6

48.1
2
CLOUDS OF TITIAN
2

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
71

60

26.3

41.6

31.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 2

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 2-3-4) / Super High 5


Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $10,400 • Post: 12:54
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 22. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. NANO'S CROWN is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NANO'S CROWN: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse ha s the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. HIGH HEEL LADY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SEDUCTIVE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the di stance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
4
NANO'S CROWN
2/1

3/1
7
HIGH HEEL LADY
3/1

7/1
1
SEDUCTIVE
6/1

9/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
NANO'S CROWN
4

2/1
Front-runner
87

76

76.8

76.8

74.8
7
HIGH HEEL LADY
7

3/1
Stalker
83

72

83.6

74.8

68.3
1
SEDUCTIVE
1

6/1
Trailer
78

80

51.6

73.4

64.9
8
EL OF A CAT
8

6/1
Trailer
83

78

32.2

70.8

58.8
2
CHERI'S WIN
2

10/1
Trailer
89

67

15.8

63.4

53.4
3
NINETY DEGREES
3

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
75

64

65.6

60.0

45.0
5
SMOKIN RED HOT
5

9/2
Alternator/Non-contender
82

84

62.6

64.2

57.7
6
TZI OUR DESTINY
6

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
81

58

42.2

56.0

45.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bahamas Bowl UAB vs. Ohio Preview and Predictions

By Gracenote for Scores and Stats
by Gracenote on 12/09/2017



BAHAMAS BOWL STORYLINES

1. Two years after the school shut down its football program amidst financial concerns, UAB won a school-record eight games to earn its second-ever bowl berth. The Blazers, guided by National Coach of the Year candidate Bill Clark, will face Ohio in the Bahamas Bowl on Friday, Dec. 22. UAB earned its invitation to the island paradise by finishing second in the West Division of Conference USA, thanks in part to a ground attack which produced 27 touchdowns.

2. Ohio finished second in the MAC's East Division, one game behind Akron. The Bobcats lost to the Zips 37-34 in the penultimate game of the regular season, snapping their four-game winning streak, and capped the campaign with another narrow setback at Buffalo. Despite the consecutive defeats to end the season, the speedy Bobcats still finished the slate ranked 14th in the nation in scoring with an average of 38.9 points.

3. Under Clark, who was named the conference's top coach, the Blazers went 6-0 at home and revitalized their fan base to lead the league in attendance. Defensive back Darious Williams earned All-American Honorable Mention laurels after leading the squad with five interceptions, including one pick in four straight games. Ohio is paced by dual threat quarterback Nathan Rourke, who threw for three touchdowns and ran for three more in a 45-28 win over Miami (Ohio) on Dec. 1.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Ohio -7.5. O/U: 57.5

ABOUT UAB (8-4, 6-2 Conference USA): The last time the Blazers played in a bowl game was in 2004, when they participated in the Hawaii Bowl, and getting back was not an easy endeavor after the program was shut down in 2014. Quarterback A.J. Erdely passed for 2,077 yards with 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions while rushing for 289 yards and 13 more scores. Spencer Brown carried the ball 237 times for 1,292 yards and 10 TDs while Andre Wilson was the team's top receiver, hauling in 48 passes for 619 yards and six touchdowns.

ABOUT OHIO (8-4, 5-3 MAC): The Bobcats have won exactly eight games for three straight seasons but suffered bowl losses to Troy last campaign and Appalachian State two years ago. Rourke, who relished the time off to recover from several nagging injuries, racked up 2,018 yards passing with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions while rushing for 882 yards and 21 scores. A.J. Ouellette finished the regular season with 980 yards and seven scores on 184 carries.



PREDICTION: UAB 30, Ohio 28

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Central Michigan vs. Wyoming Preview and Predictions

By Gracenote for Scores and Stats
by Gracenote on 12/09/2017



FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL STORYLINES

1. Will this be Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen's swan song? The rifled-armed 6-5, 233-pound junior had what many consider a disappointing season, completing just 141-of-251 passes (56.2 percent) for 1,658 yards with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions while also rushing for 207 yards and five scores on 84 carries. Although only an Honorable Mention All-Mountain West pick, Allen comes in at No. 6 on ESPN NFL draft guru Mel Kiper Jr.'s top 20 list for 2018 NFL Draft prospects.

2. Will Allen, who missed Wyoming's final two games after spraining his right shoulder in a 28-14 win at Air Force on Nov. 11, be healthy enough to play? "The shoulder is getting better day to day," Allen told Wyosports.net on Dec. 5. "I've been getting back in the swing of things with some 7-on-7 and some plays in the team sessions the last couple days of practice. It felt good. (The shoulder) still isn't where I want it to be or it needs to be. There are some throws I still feel some pain, and some I don't feel anything." As far as skipping the bowl to avoid the possibility of further injury should he decide to turn pro, Allen said: "If I'm 100 percent, I'm playing in the game. I owe that to this university and to this team."

3. Which team can avoid turnovers? Both clubs thrived on forcing opponents to turn over the ball, with Central Michigan leading the FBS by creating 31 turnovers while Wyoming was right behind with 30. The Cowboys also had a turnover margin of plus-16, which was second-best in the FBS, while the Chippawas finished at plus-eight.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Wyoming -1

ABOUT CENTRAL MICHIGAN (8-4, 6-2 MAC): The Chips, who had a 45-27 nonconference win at Kansas of the Big 12, bounced back from a 3-4 start to earn their fourth straight bowl appearance after finishing second to eventual champ Toledo in the MAC's West Division. Sophomore running back Jonathan Ward (988 yards, nine touchdowns, 5.9 yards per carry) and senior wide receiver Corey Willis (42 catches, 625 yards, nine TDs) both were All-MAC Second Team picks while senior quarterback Shane Morris finished second in the conference in passing, completing 226-of-407 attempts for 2,908 yards with 26 TDs and 13 interceptions. Senior linebacker Joe Ostman (12 sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss) and defensive backs Amari Coleman (10 passes defended, three interceptions) and Josh Cox (six interceptions) lead a defense that ranks second in the FBS with 19 interceptions.

ABOUT WYOMING (7-5, 5-3 Mountain West): If Allen doesn't play, it could be a long afternoon for the Cowboys, who ranked 10th in the Mountain West in scoring (22.3 points) and last in rushing (107.8 yards). Backup quarterback Nick Smith struggled, completing just 54.1 percent of his passes (40-of-74) for 471 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in setbacks against Fresno State (13-7) and lowly San Jose State (20-17), which snapped a 10-game losing streak. Wyoming's defense was one of the best in the conference, allowing just 17.8 points and 332.8 yards while featuring three All-Mountain West First Team picks in defensive linemen Youhanna Ghaifan (five sacks, 13 tackles for loss) and Carl Granderson (7.5 sacks) and safety Andrew Wingard (111 tackles, four interceptions).



PREDICTION: Wyoming 17, Central Michigan 14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Friday, December 22, 2017

CF (219) CENTRAL MICHIGAN VS (220) WYOMING

Take: UNDER

Reason: Your free play for Friday, December 22, 2017 is in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Wyoming has QB Josh Allen projected to go in the NFL 1st round draft. Even with All, the Cowboys offense that could manage just 21 points per game. Allen has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury, but is expected to start on Friday. Central Michigan really picked up the pace the 2nd half of the season, winning five straight games and scoring at least 31 points in the process. Central Michigan has senior QB Shane Morris and a core of four senior receivers, all looking to get noticed here on Bowl day. This one is more about Allen maybe not giving it his all here today. He likely won't want to get re-injured. The Chippewas are 3-11 O/U in their last 14 vs a winning team and 2-5 O/U in their last seven neutral site games. Meanwhile, Wyoming is 2-12 O/U in their last 14 overall games and 1-6 O/U in their last 7 non conference games. I like today's game to go UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

FRI Bradley CBB + 9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Friday, Dec 22 is:

Buffalo Sabres over Philly Flyers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RED DOG SPORTS
Soccer | Dec 22, 2017
Gillingham vs. Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town -105

Free play on Fleetwood Town -105 in a soccer match that takes place in England on Thursday afternoon.

Gillingham 1

Fleetwood 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SCOTT SPREITZER
NCAA-B | Dec 22, 2017
Temple vs. Georgia
I'm laying the points with Georgia.

(Note the 1 PM ET tip). UGA is off to an 8-2 start overall and 5-0 at home after an 80-59 blowout win over Georgia Tech on Tuesday. The Bulldogs shot 58% and held the Yellow Jackets to just a .367 shooting percentage and Yante Maten scored a team-leading 24 points. Maten is averaging 19.2 points and nine rebounds and William Jackson II averages 12.3 points and leads the Bulldogs with 41 assists. Georgia is holding opponents to just a .397 field goal percentage and 67.6 points per game. Temple has lost both their true road games this season and the Owls are 0-4-1 ATS their last five games, including a 20-point loss to Villanova. The Owls barely beat Drexel as a 15.5-point favorite on Saturday while shooting only 39% and making just 6 of 21 from 3-point range. Shizz Alston Jr. was the only Temple player in double figures with 12 points. We're laying it with Georgia, our Daytime Dominator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.