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(3% play) ATLANTA +5.5/+6 (at L.A. Rams) - 8:15 pm ET (NBC) #103
-Atlanta won a big game at home vs. Carolina last week, so expect momentum to carry here
-offense is averaging 6.2 yards per play on the road vs. defenses that only allow 5.6 yppl
-Falcons' defense is only giving up 19.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play this season
-Los Angeles rested starters last week, disrupt flow of young team; new QBs just 14-27 SU in playoffs
-offense needs to throw the ball to be successful, but Atlanta gives up just 6.2 yppa; bad matchup
-Rams' defense is worse at home where they give up 22.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play
Play FALCONS (+) as a 3% play.
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(additional opinion)
(1% opinion) UNDER 44.5 (Titans/Chiefs) - 4:30 pm ET (ABC) #102
-Tennessee is not in good current form as they’ve scored just 68 total points in L4 games (17.0 ppg)
-offense is averaging just 17.5 points per game on 4.9 yards per play on the road this season
-Titans defense allows 5.0 yards per play on the road vs. offenses that average 5.3 yards per play
-Kansas City opened the season at 5-0, then they lost 6 of 7 games before closing on a 4-0 run
-offense was worse at home; they averaged 1.8 points per game less and 0.6 yards per play less
-Chiefs defense only gives up 16.9 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 21 ppg
4 Unit Play. Take #541 Duke -12 over NC State (8p.m., Saturday January 6 ESPN)
NC State has been blown out twice in conference play to open the 2017-2018 ACC season. They will have some fight early in this game but will fade in the second half. Duke already suffered a loss at Boston College and thus they cannot afford to take this game lightly. When Duke win it tends to come big and that will be the case again tonight. Duke is 7-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 road games. NC State is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
4 Unit Play. Take #614 Take Auburn -5 over Arkansas (6p.m., Saturday January 6 ESPN U)
Arkansas is just a different team on the road and they pressure is just does not have the same effect. Auburn has quietly become one of the top teams in the SEC at 13-1 and they have not had that many competitive games in those victories. The Tigers are 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Tide is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 SEC games.
4 Unit Play. Take #623 Green Bay +1.5 over Youngstown State (7p.m., Saturday January 6 ESPN 3)
The Penguins are playing over their head at the moment having won both of their conference games but they are about to come back down to reality. Green Bay took Cleveland State to the wire and expect them to finish the task on Saturday and pull out the victory. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on Saturday. Youngstown State is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.
4 Unit Play. Take #682 Take Furman -3 over Mercer (4:30p.m., Saturday January 6 ESPN 3)
Mercer is just not the traditional power in conference play this season. They enter this game having lost 5 of their last 7 games and will lose this game by 6-8 points tonight. Since December Furman has lost just 1 game.
4 Unit Play. Take #694 Take Austin Peay -6 over SE Missouri State (8p.m., Saturday January 6)
The Governors have won three straight OVC games to open conference play and expect them to win this game by double digits at home. The Redhawks have lost 5 of their last 6 games and they have no been competitive in those losses. Austin Peay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports
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