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Tony Finn
BIG TICKET NFL SUN 5% WILD CARD
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
5% Total Under 40.0 (-110)
If there is a case of nerves in the NFL it comes with being a rookie during training camp and in a first playoff setting with the entire world watching. Two teams that have not seen postseason play for over a decade take the field in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. The Jaguars make their first postseason appearance since the 2007 while Buffalo hasn't played an important January game since 1999.
With a healthy McCoy the Bills are the least capable team in the 2018 field. Jacksonville has succeeded and failed this season with old school football and a scheme that is historically reliable in playoff ball, running the football and stopping the run. The Jags were a top-10 DVOA club in 2017. Buffalo was in the bottom-10.
Once Buffalo lost the health of their top receiver and running back, LeSean McCoy, the offense shutdown and the Bills came close to giving away a 22-3 lead.
The Bills defense is the one variable that allows Taylor and company to succeed. But the only way the Bills come out of this game a winner on Sunday is a low scoring event in which they stack the box and force Bortles to beat them through the air. This is an issue for the Jags seeing that their best receiver, Lee, isn't healthy and may not play. Additionally, Buffalo has to be willing to sacrifice the health of their best player, McCoy, who was limited in practice this week with an ankle injury.
You can count on the Jags being nothing short of uber-conservative on Sunday. They square off against a defense, the Bills front seven, that rank dead last versus the run in the second half of this year's regular season slate.
Buffalo allows an average of 125 yards rushing per game and in the red zone has been porous allowing 22 rushing touchdowns on the year. The Bills, with nothing to lose and everything to gain, will be cheating in the box with the attempt of holding a rookie running back who has hit the first-year wall over the last month. Fournette has back-to-back games of 48 and 69 yards, respectively.
Without a rushing game the final two weeks, Bortles had to try to win the games with his arm. To his credit, Bortles rallied after throwing three picks against the 49ers to bring the team back to within one score in final two minutes of that game, but faltered heavily last week against the Titans without any support. Get the running game back on track, and let Bortles find the confidence he had in early December.
The Jags will be a bit more careful when rushing the passer on Sunday. Taylor, does have the feet to beat the "Sacksonville” charge, a unit that led the NFL with 55 sacks. The Bills, however, don't have a receiving corps that gain separation from the opposing secondary. The Jags also led the league with 21 interceptions. Taylor is, all things being equal, a run-first quarterback. He faces a defensive secondary that has allowed only six opposing wide outs to surpass 60-yards in a single game this season. Without a healthy McCoy and backup Travaris Cadet (out for the season to a broken ankle) depending on Mike Tolbert in an offensive scheme with no game-breaking wide outs, against the best defense in the league, makes the Bills desperately dependent on being defensive minded winning the field position battle in this contest.
The Bills come into this Wild Card matchup a ridiculously poor, for a playoff team, a minus 57 in point differential. Like the Bills there is nothing special about the Jags offense. They won't put the game on the line with a pass-first scheme and in truth their offensive line is, pedestrian, at best. The bottom line truth is that Jacksonville's O-line became predictable and their formations became an open book for opposing defensive coordinators in the second half of the season. The Jags rushed for less than four yards a carry in five of its last seven games.
BIG TICKET NFL SUN 5% WILD CARD
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
5% Total Under 40.0 (-110)
If there is a case of nerves in the NFL it comes with being a rookie during training camp and in a first playoff setting with the entire world watching. Two teams that have not seen postseason play for over a decade take the field in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. The Jaguars make their first postseason appearance since the 2007 while Buffalo hasn't played an important January game since 1999.
With a healthy McCoy the Bills are the least capable team in the 2018 field. Jacksonville has succeeded and failed this season with old school football and a scheme that is historically reliable in playoff ball, running the football and stopping the run. The Jags were a top-10 DVOA club in 2017. Buffalo was in the bottom-10.
Once Buffalo lost the health of their top receiver and running back, LeSean McCoy, the offense shutdown and the Bills came close to giving away a 22-3 lead.
The Bills defense is the one variable that allows Taylor and company to succeed. But the only way the Bills come out of this game a winner on Sunday is a low scoring event in which they stack the box and force Bortles to beat them through the air. This is an issue for the Jags seeing that their best receiver, Lee, isn't healthy and may not play. Additionally, Buffalo has to be willing to sacrifice the health of their best player, McCoy, who was limited in practice this week with an ankle injury.
You can count on the Jags being nothing short of uber-conservative on Sunday. They square off against a defense, the Bills front seven, that rank dead last versus the run in the second half of this year's regular season slate.
Buffalo allows an average of 125 yards rushing per game and in the red zone has been porous allowing 22 rushing touchdowns on the year. The Bills, with nothing to lose and everything to gain, will be cheating in the box with the attempt of holding a rookie running back who has hit the first-year wall over the last month. Fournette has back-to-back games of 48 and 69 yards, respectively.
Without a rushing game the final two weeks, Bortles had to try to win the games with his arm. To his credit, Bortles rallied after throwing three picks against the 49ers to bring the team back to within one score in final two minutes of that game, but faltered heavily last week against the Titans without any support. Get the running game back on track, and let Bortles find the confidence he had in early December.
The Jags will be a bit more careful when rushing the passer on Sunday. Taylor, does have the feet to beat the "Sacksonville” charge, a unit that led the NFL with 55 sacks. The Bills, however, don't have a receiving corps that gain separation from the opposing secondary. The Jags also led the league with 21 interceptions. Taylor is, all things being equal, a run-first quarterback. He faces a defensive secondary that has allowed only six opposing wide outs to surpass 60-yards in a single game this season. Without a healthy McCoy and backup Travaris Cadet (out for the season to a broken ankle) depending on Mike Tolbert in an offensive scheme with no game-breaking wide outs, against the best defense in the league, makes the Bills desperately dependent on being defensive minded winning the field position battle in this contest.
The Bills come into this Wild Card matchup a ridiculously poor, for a playoff team, a minus 57 in point differential. Like the Bills there is nothing special about the Jags offense. They won't put the game on the line with a pass-first scheme and in truth their offensive line is, pedestrian, at best. The bottom line truth is that Jacksonville's O-line became predictable and their formations became an open book for opposing defensive coordinators in the second half of the season. The Jags rushed for less than four yards a carry in five of its last seven games.
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