Service Plays Monday 1/8/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merril

---

NCAA Football

(4% play) ALABAMA -3.5/-4 (vs. Georgia) - 8:10 pm ET (ESPN) #151

-Alabama HC Nick Saban will face former assistant Kirby Smart; his assistants are 0-11 SU
-offense averaged 37.9 ppg on 6.7 yards per play vs. defenses that gave up just 5.6 yards per play
-Crimson Tide defense only gave up 11.1 points per game on 3.9 yards per play this season

-Georgia won a high-scoring shootout vs. Oklahoma in overtime; freshman QB regresses here
-offense needs to run the ball to have success; Alabama defense allows just 92 rypg on 2.7 ypr
-Bulldogs' defense allows 143 rushing yards per game on the road; Alabama runs for 256 ypg

Play ALABAMA (-) as a 4% play.

[tider10]

Anyone have king creole’s nba total for tonight? He’s been fire


tia

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

3* on ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -3 (-120)

[GetTheseDimes]

Any of Docs sports guys (they're all lined up on the side) or any Warren Sharp?
thanks!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Any of Docs sports guys (they're all lined up on the side) or any Warren Sharp?
thanks!

They're all on Alabama except for Alan Harris he has a 4 on Georgia

[IronCity]

Power Sports

Alabama GOY

Ppwer Sports has only won about 45% in college football this year. They say this is their strongest pick of the year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan

3*

Georgia +4.5


Analysis:
Championship game and everyone and their crazy uncle will be throwing out their opinions. Kind of like the super bowl. People will tune into ESPN or Sirius radio and listen to all the talking heads babble on and on and on. Funny thing is you will hear really knowledgeable people vary pretty significantly in their predictions. Well, here is my own after a lot of thought. Too many points. For full disclosure as well I am a Bama fan. In my perfect world the Tide will prevail here by a field goal. But we wager with real money. Fan emotion and betting are like matches and gas, things can blow up when mixed. Like bankrolls. I am not going to get into the whole right or wrong about two SEC teams playing for the title. I will leave that to others. In my mind the best two teams are here. Both Oklahoma and Clemson had their opportunity to crash the party and the bottom line is they could not get that door down. Clearly both stellar defenses. That is putting it mildly. If you like old school smash mouth football this is as good as it gets. Trench warfare at its best. The team that loses here will have a tough time swallowing it because in my view both these clubs are championship caliber. In the end I just think if Bama prevails it will be by the thinnest of margins. That Tide offense will struggle mightily all night to generate long drives against that Dawgs front. And I trust Fromm more than Hurts to make a game breaking play with his arm. Yes, Hurts is more dangerous with his legs but I don't see that much of a issue overall agaÌinst as fast a unit as this Georgia team has. I've watched both these clubs closely all season long and I honestly thought and hoped we might arrive at this conclusion. Kirby Smart knows the Tide and their way of life forwards and backwards. Guys like Saban don't deviate much. They have too much ego and I don't mean that in a bad way. They don't really care because they don't believe they can be defeated if they show up and execute their game plan. Funny thing is Smart and his staff enter this war with the same ideas. I was VERY impressed with the way Georgia topped an excellent Oklahoma team at their own game. They outscored them in a shoot out. Not many thought that remotely possible. Bottom line fellas is I think more often than not Georgia and the points is the winning side. NO, not a lock or any of that bullshit. But a solid wager. I am going Triple with the Bulldogs and the points. My Bama fan friends won't be happy but business is business.

Please don't wager more than your comfort level fellas. In the end it's one game. I love our chances because we are getting points with an outstanding team but it's one game. Not trying to be a kill joy, only trying to help Many sincere thanks and lets cash it. We have won all our Bowl Triples, lets get one more for the sweep. Enjoy the game. Could be an instant classic.

Added Note: Clearly the 4.5 where the number was when I released this originally is gone. The smart money, in my opinion, came in on the Bulldogs and the shops adjusted the number. I still see this as a valid triple at anything over a field goal. Thanks again and best of luck to all of us. Enjoy the game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King creole

2*

Analysis:

#713-714
10:35pm ET / 7:35pm PT
ATLANTA HAWKS @ LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

We didn’t think that the exact SAME situation would come into play so quickly after last Thursday’s ‘Over-EASY’ winner (in the Thunder / Clippers game), but here we ARE. The ATLANTA HAWKS just played LAST night on the road in Los Angeles versus the Lakers. In that game, the OU line was 216 points, and the final score was 132 to 113. The OVER hit by +29 points. Here we are one day later, and the Hawks are staying RIGHT where they are… and taking on the CLIPPERS in the exact same venue IN LA. In last Thursday’s win (Thunder / Clippers OVER), we revealed a very strong high-scoring situation for NBA teams who play IN Los Angeles on back-to-back nights. The 2nd of those back-to-back games have been great for OVERS, so we’ll go right back to it four days later.
12-1-1 O/U last 3 years / 9-0 O/U last TWO seasons: All NBA teams on the road with NO REST versus the LA LAKERS or LA CLIPPERS… after playing on the road against the Lakers or Clippers the PREVIOUS day (HAWKS).

In yesterday’s loss… the Hawks allowed the Lakers to put up a whopping 132 points… 5-0-1 O/U last 2 years: All NBA road underdogs of 8 < points with NO REST off a SU loss in which they ALLOWED 125 or more points (HAWKS).

So that was a NON-CONFERENCE game in which the Hawks allowed a lot of points last night… 9-1-1 O/U Last 2 years: All NBA underdogs of > 2 points after allowing 130 or MORE points in a NON-Conference game (HAWKS).

At least the Hawks looked a little better on offense themselves last night. After scoring only 89 points vs the Trailblazers on Friday, Atlanta busted out for 113 points last night… 6-0 O/U THIS season: All Non-Conference ROAD teams who scored 110 > pts and < 90 pts in their last two games (HAWKS).

Both the host Clippers AND the visiting Hawks are off UGLY losses of 16 or more points in their last game… 5-0 O/U THIS season: All non-division home favorites when BOTH teams (CLIPPERS + HAWKS) are off a SU loss of 15 > points on their last game.

With LA’s last game on Saturday afternoon, they come into tonight’s game on one day of rest, while the Hawks are unrested… Already THIS season, NBA non-conference HOME teams in a ‘1/0’ REST situation (CLIPPERS) have gone 18-5-1 O/U when the OU line is 222 or less points.

That loss on Saturday for LA was against division rival Golden State… 9-1 O/U since March of last season: All NBA home teams off a SU division DOUBLE-DIGIT home loss (CLIPPERS) when the OU line is 204 or more points.

There’s a BIG line swing in regards to the pointspread n this game. LA was a big home dog of +8 points in Saturday’s game. Now, the lime has shifted a full 12 points as the Clips are a home favorite of -4 or more tonight… 9-1 O/U last 3 years / 7-0 O/U last 2 years: All NBA home favorites of -4 > points who were a Conference HOME UNDERDOGS of +8 > pts in their last game (CLIPPERS) when the OU line is 222 or less points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bondi

3* Georgia

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik

2* Alabama/ Georgia under 44.5

2* Indiana-120

[Gmoney121]

Anyone have king creole’s nba total for tonight? He’s been fire


tia

I “SECOND” that...... The guy had been insanely HOT in w/ NBA totals. Most definitely hitting over 70%.



Just saw your post CPAW, thanks a MILLION !!!!

[Rewdog24]

VIP SPORTS (Steve Stevens)

Alabama -3.5

Wow we never get his picks on here did you buy a package?

[bmd1803]

Tony Finn

• CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PARLAY (Side)
  Game: (151) ALABAMA at (152) GEORGIA
  Date/Time: Jan 8 2018 8:10 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: ALABAMA -3.5 (-106)
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY: Alabama Crimson Tide -3.5 (good to -6)
  4% rating
  (151) ALABAMA at (152) GEORGIA
  The 2017-18 college football season has come down to the final game, the last two schools standing, when Georgia and Alabama meet in Atlanta for the CFB Playoff. Nick Saban and his Bama squad square off against former assistant Kirby Smart and his Bulldogs.
  
  While neither Saban nor Smart take the field donning shoulder pads or helmet the coaching in the championship game has always held an intrigue. And for the most part, be it the CFP title tilt, or regular season events, Saban has presented a dominance over former assistants.
  
  The dominating performance by the Tide in their Sugar Bowl win over Clemson was nothing short of impressive. Alabama’s offense once again is the deepest in college football, especially at the running back position. And the defense is again considered a Top-five unit even with a number of injuries at the linebacker position.
  
  Smart has Georgia began the season by winning the school's first nine games. This included earning a "W" versus Notre Dame, taking the Florida Gators to the woodshed with their one loss coming against a good Auburn group that, is in many ways, the mirror image of Bama. Georgia got a second chance at Auburn, in the SEC Championship contest, and walked away with a 28-7 victory. The Rose Bowl holiday event, the semi-finals for the CFP, saw the Bulldogs secure a 54-48 win over Oklahoma in double overtime.
  
  The two teams that take the field in Atlanta tonight haven't had a head-to-head contest in over two years, since 2015, with the Crimson Tide owning a three-game winning streak over the Bulldogs.
  
  While watching film and boxscores of these two teams make it more than likely both teams will want to be run-first and duke it out in the trenches it would be irresponsible to believe that neither coaching staff isn't going to be creative in this title game.
  
  Bama isn't going to let the Bulldogs push them around like Smart and his offense did to Oklahoma, gaining 317 yards and averaging over 9 yards per carry in the Rose Bowl victory.
  
  Georgia receives most of the credit for being the better rushing offense behind the NFL legs of Chubb. However, what Saban and his staff did to Clemson via the ground attack, 141 yards on 42 carries, was more impressive, considering the two team's opponents.
  
  Expect to see both coaches load the box tonight and force the offenses to, again, be creative, with more pass plays than you will hear or read.
  
  While Chubb has rushed for 1,320 yards and 15 touchdowns this year and shared the running duties with Sony Michel who ran for 1,129 yards, there is a third option for the Dogs at tailback. Freshman D’Andre Swift ran for 603 yards and three scores this year. Where the hay is made with this Georgia offense is their line, a unit that has been as good as any in college football.
  
  The balanced rushing attack of the Dogs is even more level among the Bama player personnel. RB Damien Harris leads the Crimson Tide running game. Harris recording 983 yards and 11 touchdowns and did so on a mere 129 carries this year. There is Bo Scarbrough (573 yards and eight TD's), Najee Harris (306) and Josh Jacobs (276) throwing in their two legs to the offensive ground and pound. And of course Saban and his staff also have the legs of quarterback Jalen Hurts who rushed for 808 yards and eight touchdowns this year.
  
  Considering that both of these coaches know each other well, and what has been the bread and butter to the two team's success, a low-scoring game would surprise me. Read the season long stat block and you will find that Alabama has limited their opponents to an average of 11 points a game and Georgia 16.
  
  A ground and pound attack by both teams isn't logical, or reasonable, considering the intellect of these two staffs. The Tide has surrendered just four yards a play this year and the 'Dogs 4.5.
  
  Bama has allowed less than 100 yards per game on the ground this year, on average, while Georgia has contained the opposition’s running attack giving up just over 120 yards per contest. Additionally, neither team has been touched by the big runs from scrimmage this season. The championship tilt duo have combined to allow just two runs of 40 or more yards during the regular season, plus semi-event, in 2017-18.
  
  Year after year, be it in college of the NFL, you will hear that defense wins championships. The Alabama defense was better a season ago than this year, and the year before, ditto. Last year's CFP final score found Clemson scoring 35 points against the Tide. Bama put up 31 against a good Clemson defense.
  
  Clemson rushed for just 91 yards against last year's Tide "D" while throwing for 420 yards.
  
  And while both teams bring the reputation of being defensive to Atlanta with the intent on stacking the box on first down. But this game will be about both coaching staffs trusting their quarterbacks. The results will be mixed. With both head coaches knowing that the team that does a better job of passing the ball winning this title event.
  
  Hurt has been in this situation before while Fromm hasn't. He has the legs to damage the Georgia defense and he doesn't throw interceptions, at least he didn't during the regular season giving the opposing stop-units just one on the year.
  
  Fromm on the other hand is a freshman on the biggest stage in college football. And he is a true freshman mind you. Neither Hurts nor Fromm has had to throw the football 30-plus times to win games in their careers. But that isn't the case tonight.
  
  Neither of these two coaching staffs are so slow that they believe they are going to win with defense and a running game tonight. That makes less sense than anything when game-planning for this event. The two SEC school's have won with defense and their running attack this year while both have done a great job of preventing the opposition from being their clones.
  
  Both Hurts and Fromm have been excellent at taking care of the ball all year. I don't, however, believe the status quo will hold serve tonight due to the necessity to throw the ball 30-times to win and/or lose tonight.
  
  The truth is that both quarterbacks will be tested through the air tonight. And both will have their successes and their failures. The more experienced team and coaching staff wins and it would also be a surprise to see this game not get completely outside the norm if Bama garners a 14-plus point lead.
  
  Big win for Saban and his crew tonight and they do so scoring big points.
  
  ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -3.5
  
• CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PARLAY (Total)
  Game: (151) ALABAMA at (152) GEORGIA
  Date/Time: Jan 8 2018 8:10 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Total Over 44.5 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY: OVER the TOTAL of 44.5 (good to 46)
  3% rating
  (151) ALABAMA at (152) GEORGIA
  The 2017-18 college football season has come down to the final game, the last two schools standing, when Georgia and Alabama meet in Atlanta for the CFB Playoff. Nick Saban and his Bama squad square off against former assistant Kirby Smart and his Bulldogs.
  
  While neither Saban nor Smart take the field donning shoulder pads or helmet the coaching in the championship game has always held an intrigue. And for the most part, be it the CFP title tilt, or regular season events, Saban has presented a dominance over former assistants.
  
  The dominating performance by the Tide in their Sugar Bowl win over Clemson was nothing short of impressive. Alabama’s offense once again is the deepest in college football, especially at the running back position. And the defense is again considered a Top-five unit even with a number of injuries at the linebacker position.
  
  Smart has Georgia began the season by winning the school's first nine games. This included earning a "W" versus Notre Dame, taking the Florida Gators to the woodshed with their one loss coming against a good Auburn group that, is in many ways, the mirror image of Bama. Georgia got a second chance at Auburn, in the SEC Championship contest, and walked away with a 28-7 victory. The Rose Bowl holiday event, the semi-finals for the CFP, saw the Bulldogs secure a 54-48 win over Oklahoma in double overtime.
  
  The two teams that take the field in Atlanta tonight haven't had a head-to-head contest in over two years, since 2015, with the Crimson Tide owning a three-game winning streak over the Bulldogs.
  
  While watching film and boxscores of these two teams make it more than likely both teams will want to be run-first and duke it out in the trenches it would be irresponsible to believe that neither coaching staff isn't going to be creative in this title game.
  
  Bama isn't going to let the Bulldogs push them around like Smart and his offense did to Oklahoma, gaining 317 yards and averaging over 9 yards per carry in the Rose Bowl victory.
  
  Georgia receives most of the credit for being the better rushing offense behind the NFL legs of Chubb. However, what Saban and his staff did to Clemson via the ground attack, 141 yards on 42 carries, was more impressive, considering the two team's opponents.
  
  Expect to see both coaches load the box tonight and force the offenses to, again, be creative, with more pass plays than you will hear or read.
  
  While Chubb has rushed for 1,320 yards and 15 touchdowns this year and shared the running duties with Sony Michel who ran for 1,129 yards, there is a third option for the Dogs at tailback. Freshman D’Andre Swift ran for 603 yards and three scores this year. Where the hay is made with this Georgia offense is their line, a unit that has been as good as any in college football.
  
  The balanced rushing attack of the Dogs is even more level among the Bama player personnel. RB Damien Harris leads the Crimson Tide running game. Harris recording 983 yards and 11 touchdowns and did so on a mere 129 carries this year. There is Bo Scarbrough (573 yards and eight TD's), Najee Harris (306) and Josh Jacobs (276) throwing in their two legs to the offensive ground and pound. And of course Saban and his staff also have the legs of quarterback Jalen Hurts who rushed for 808 yards and eight touchdowns this year.
  
  Considering that both of these coaches know each other well, and what has been the bread and butter to the two team's success, a low-scoring game would surprise me. Read the season long stat block and you will find that Alabama has limited their opponents to an average of 11 points a game and Georgia 16.
  
  A ground and pound attack by both teams isn't logical, or reasonable, considering the intellect of these two staffs. The Tide has surrendered just four yards a play this year and the 'Dogs 4.5.
  
  Bama has allowed less than 100 yards per game on the ground this year, on average, while Georgia has contained the opposition’s running attack giving up just over 120 yards per contest. Additionally, neither team has been touched by the big runs from scrimmage this season. The championship tilt duo have combined to allow just two runs of 40 or more yards during the regular season, plus semi-event, in 2017-18.
  
  Year after year, be it in college of the NFL, you will hear that defense wins championships. The Alabama defense was better a season ago than this year, and the year before, ditto. Last year's CFP final score found Clemson scoring 35 points against the Tide. Bama put up 31 against a good Clemson defense.
  
  Clemson rushed for just 91 yards against last year's Tide "D" while throwing for 420 yards.
  
  And while both teams bring the reputation of being defensive to Atlanta with the intent on stacking the box on first down. But this game will be about both coaching staffs trusting their quarterbacks. The results will be mixed. With both head coaches knowing that the team that does a better job of passing the ball winning this title event.
  
  Hurt has been in this situation before while Fromm hasn't. He has the legs to damage the Georgia defense and he doesn't throw interceptions, at least he didn't during the regular season giving the opposing stop-units just one on the year.
  
  Fromm on the other hand is a freshman on the biggest stage in college football. And he is a true freshman mind you. Neither Hurts nor Fromm has had to throw the football 30-plus times to win games in their careers. But that isn't the case tonight.
  
  Neither of these two coaching staffs are so slow that they believe they are going to win with defense and a running game tonight. That makes less sense than anything when game-planning for this event. The two SEC school's have won with defense and their running attack this year while both have done a great job of preventing the opposition from being their clones.
  
  Both Hurts and Fromm have been excellent at taking care of the ball all year. I don't, however, believe the status quo will hold serve tonight due to the necessity to throw the ball 30-times to win and/or lose tonight.
  
  The truth is that both quarterbacks will be tested through the air tonight. And both will have their successes and their failures. The more experienced team and coaching staff wins and it would also be a surprise to see this game not get completely outside the norm if Bama garners a 14-plus point lead.
  
  Big win for Saban and his crew tonight and they do so scoring big points.
  
  OVER the TOTAL of 44.5

[bmd1803]

The Prez

• COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP SIDE
  Game: (151) ALABAMA at (152) GEORGIA
  Date/Time: Jan 8 2018 8:10 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: ALABAMA -4.0 (-106)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Play Alabama Crimson Tide -4 (play good to -6)
  4% play rating
  (151) ALABAMA at (152) GEORGIA
  Two of the more opportunitic defenses, both from SEC football country, will be the headline on Tuesday morning following the championship game. Both units will gamble on the stop-side of the ball and in turn it will result in defensive scoring and/or field possession advantages for both offenses.
  The Tide's defense may have looked stronger than in the latter stages of the regular season but it was facing a Clemson offense that can be handcuffed if schemed properly... something that Saban and his staff did a tremendous job of doing. Additionally, the Tigers were forced to be more one-dimensional after falling behind. Georgia is much more capable of being run or pass-heavy and in turn Bama will again gamble defensively because they wholeheartedly believe they can score on Georgia when needed.
  
  The Nick Saban vs Kirby Smart contest will be won by the team that is more offensively creative and that edge goes to Saban and his staff. Not to completely dismiss the ability of Jake Fromm, Sony Michel and Nick Chubb. Fromm is no longer a freshman, not after a season of SEC battles, and he has the running attack to give him time against a good Bama front seven.
  
  Tide signal-caller Hurt won't be featured on ESPN for this athletic or strong/accurate arm but this is his second straight national title appearance and he threw for two touchdowns and no interceptions against a better defense last weekend, Clemson vs Georgia.
  
  Neither quarterback can be sloppy in this game but there will be situations, more than a dozen, that offers the defenses in this game to score or put their offensive in favorable field position.
  
  During a season when the Bama defense wasn't nearly as dominate as they were in 2016 they still forced mistakes. The Tide defense, overall, scores points with their defense. They have, as a unit, created at least one turnover in 41 of its past 43 games.
  
  In a game that will be offensive many will favor the Bulldogs and their balanced attack and still dreaming about the performance they executed against the Sooners this past week. Georgia will score their share of points on Monday but won't top the better of the two SEC schools.
  
  Alabama Crimson Tide -4
  
• COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL
  Game: (151) ALABAMA at (152) GEORGIA
  Date/Time: Jan 8 2018 8:10 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Total Over 45.0 (+109)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Play OVER the TOTAL of 45 (play good to 47)
  4% play rating
  (151) ALABAMA at (152) GEORGIA
  Two of the more opportunitic defenses, both from SEC football country, will be the headline on Tuesday morning following the championship game. Both units will gamble on the stop-side of the ball and in turn it will result in defensive scoring and/or field possession advantages for both offenses.
  The Tide's defense may have looked stronger than in the latter stages of the regular season but it was facing a Clemson offense that can be handcuffed if schemed properly... something that Saban and his staff did a tremendous job of doing. Additionally, the Tigers were forced to be more one-dimensional after falling behind. Georgia is much more capable of being run or pass-heavy and in turn Bama will again gamble defensively because they wholeheartedly believe they can score on Georgia when needed.
  
  The Nick Saban vs Kirby Smart contest will be won by the team that is more offensively creative and that edge goes to Saban and his staff. Not to completely dismiss the ability of Jake Fromm, Sony Michel and Nick Chubb. Fromm is no longer a freshman, not after a season of SEC battles, and he has the running attack to give him time against a good Bama front seven.
  
  Tide signal-caller Hurt won't be featured on ESPN for this athletic or strong/accurate arm but this is his second straight national title appearance and he threw for two touchdowns and no interceptions against a better defense last weekend, Clemson vs Georgia.
  
  Neither quarterback can be sloppy in this game but there will be situations, more than a dozen, that offers the defenses in this game to score or put their offensive in favorable field position.
  
  During a season when the Bama defense wasn't nearly as dominate as they were in 2016 they still forced mistakes. The Tide defense, overall, scores points with their defense. They have, as a unit, created at least one turnover in 41 of its past 43 games.
  
  In a game that will be offensive many will favor the Bulldogs and their balanced attack and still dreaming about the performance they executed against the Sooners this past week. Georgia will score their share of points on Monday but won't top the better of the two SEC schools.
  
  OVER 45 points

[KTWSports]

Worlds Worst Picker

Georgia +4