Service Plays Sunday 1/14/18

[New York Knight]

King Creole

PLAYOFF GAME OF YEAR



Sunday, Jan. 14th - 4:40pm ET / 1:40pm PT

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL


We are posting this Best Bet as early in the week as possible, as the OU line has already gone UP by 2-3 full points since the openers last Sunday Night. We got our play in at the line of 44.5. As we type this on Wednesday afternoon, the line for this SAINTS / VIKINGS game has risen to 46 to 46.5. There’s still plenty of value left. But again, you want to get your action in as soon as possible. As long as you can cash a WINNER just in case this game finishes right on one of the ‘key numbers’ of 47 or 48 points. With all due respect to the Minnesota defense, our database models suggest a final score of: VIKINGS 31 - SAINTS 27. This Minnesota / New Orleans SERIES has gone 10-3-1 O/U in the last 14 meetings. And that includes a PERFECT 6-0-1 O/U for the seven games that were played IN Minnesota. One of those games was the opening weekend Monday Night double-header in this 2017 season. The Saints’ offense was not in mid-season form as they scored only 19 points on 344 total yards. They couldn’t convert numerous red zone trips into TD’s in that game. In fact they had only ONE touchdown to go with FOUR field goals. From a ‘law-of-averages’ standpoint, they should be able to get multiple TD’s in the rematch. What IS revealing is that New Orleans allowed the mysterious Vikings to score 29 points on 470 total offensive yards. That game did INDEED end up going Over the Total. The SAINTS have gone 8-1 O/U in the last three years in ALL road game in which the OU line is 50 or LESS points And in the controlled environment of a DOME, a high-scoring shootout is indeed a likely possibility. More on Dome ‘OVERS’ below…

In the DIVISION Round of the NFL post-season:
In the last 7 years, DIVISION ROUND games in which the OU line is in the range of > 41 and > 52 points (SAINTS @ VIKINGS) have gone 15-3 O/U. That includes a PERFECT 7-0 O/U when the pointspread in the game is 7 or less points,


Yes, Minnesota held Green Bay to 10 points in their last regular season game…
9-1 O/U last 7 years: All PLAYOFF teams WITH REST after allowing 10 or LESS points in their last game (VIKINGS).

In ALL Playoff games:
Yes, we’re aware that Minnesota has allowed 10 points, ZERO points, and 7 points in their last three games…
13-2 O/U ALL-TIME in our database: All PLAYOFF teams who allowed 10 or less points in EACH of their last three games (VIKINGS). These teams have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U when favored by > 3 points (VIKINGS are currently -4).

In Minnesota’s last game, the OU Line was a LOW 38 points…
7-1 O/U last 9 years: All PLAYOFF teams with an OU line of 45 or MORE points after a game in which their OU line was LESS than (<) 40 points (VIKINGS)t.

In their home win last week, the SAINTS scored 31 points against division rival Carolina. What was also revealing is that fact that BOTH teams had more than 400 yards of total offense in that one…
14-2 O/U last 3 years / 9-1 O/U LAST year: All PLAYOFF teams who scored 31 or more points in their last game (SAINTS), when the OU line is > 44 points.

That win in the Big Easy for the Saints last Sunday went OVER the Total, but New Orleans failed to ‘get the cash’ (ATS loss)…
9-1-1 O/U since 1994: All PLAYOFF teams off a SU Playoff win BUT an ATS loss, in a game that also went ‘Over the Total’ (SAINTS) when the OU line is in the range of > 43 and < 52 points.

New Orleans’s GREAT rushing offense (#6 on the season with 124 yards per game on the ground) was held in check by the Panthers. They had only 41 yards rushing on 22 carries (only 1.86 yards per rush). What excites us OVER bettors is that future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Drew Brees threw for a whopping 376 yards. It was his HIGHEST passing total of the season, meaning it’s a good time to rely on him to once again AIR it out. And in regards to New Orleans’ poor rushing numbers last week:
9-1-1 O/U since 2003: All PLAYOFF teams off a Playoff WIN in which they RUSHED for LESS than (<) 65 yards (SAINTS).

The pointspread in this game is not too low… or not too high (New Orleans -4). If the previous few seasons are any indication, we should get an ‘Over-EASY’ based on that pointspread…
In the last two years, ALL PLAYOFF games have gone 8-1 O/U when the HOME team is favored by > 3 points BUT less than 7 points (SAINTS).

Cementing our call on a high-scoring outcome is a database query based on the Day of the Week…
NFL Playoff games on a SUNDAY have gone a PERFECT 8-0 O/U in the last three seasons in All-NFC ONLY games (SAINTS @ VIKINGS) when the OU line is 41 or more points. ALL EIGHT of these games had 50 or more points scored in ‘em… and the average combined point total was 57.2.

We’ll finish it off with a query based in NFL Playoff games played INDOORS…
NFL Playoff DOME GAMES have gone 26-8-1 O/U since the 2003 season. That includes 10-2 O/U in the last 10 years when the HOST is favored by -4 or more points.

[New York Knight]

Greg Shaker


3* Pittsburgh / Jacksonville under 41

[New York Knight]

Northcoast


4 1/2* Playoff Game of the Year - Vikings -5


Top Opinion - Jags UNDER 41

Regular Opinion - Steelers -7

Had To Pick 'em - Vikings UNDER 47

[bmd1803]

Mike Davis

6 Unit NFL : Saints +5

[bmd1803]

Jason Sharpe

7 Unit NFL : Vikings -4.5

[bmd1803]

Rafael Esparza (VSI)

6 Unit NFL: Vikings -4.5

3 Unit NFL 7 points teaser :

Pitt Pk
Jax/Pitt Over 34

[bmd1803]

Tony Finn

• BIG TICKET 5% NFL DIV RD ROUT (14-6)
  Game: (305) Jacksonville Jaguars at (306) Pittsburgh Steelers
  Date/Time: Jan 14 2018 1:05 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Total Under 41.5 (-105)
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY: Total UNDER 41.5 (good to 41)
  5% rating
  (305) Jacksonville Jaguars at (306) Pittsburgh Steelers
  While one game, early in the season, isn't the lone model nor example to use when accessing a postseason contest that is a rematch of the regular season --- the Week #5 contest between these two AFC franchises saw the Jags earn a 30-9 victory at Heinz Field -- an event in which Big Ben threw five interceptions.
  The national media during the buildup of this Sunday event will project each team's success. They will point out each team's assets and liabilities and there will be little to no question that the ESPN, CBS and Fox analysis will mention that the Jaguars haven't played in the freezing temps that will huddle with each team in the Ketchup Bottle Sunday.
  While the Jags offense might be more limited than playing in Florida their defense will travel.
  The cold weather Heinz Field in a cold weather event won't deter Sacksonville. All things being equal the Jacksonville defense will excel in the expected conditions of Heinz Field -- be it warm or cold. The fact that the field is expected to be dry offers a large advantage to the Jags secondary versus the Steelers receivers, those healthy and those coming off injury (Brown).
  Jacksonville rosters the top passing defense in the NFL and the unit has created 33 turnovers, second only to the Baltimore Ravens. The Jaguars were also one of two teams with 20 picks this season.
  While Big Ben has won his share of big games it isn't a stretch to state that Roethlisberger is on the backside of a great career. His postseason performances of the past haven't been as pretty as his regular season efforts. Ben has been picked off on 23 occasions in 20 postseason games, with four of those coming last January.
  Pitt RB LeVeon Bell, who had 357 rushing yards on 65 carries over three games in the postseason a year ago, will see plenty of touches today against the aggressive front seven of the Jags.
  The soft spot in this good Jags team is the experience, lack of postseason experience of quarterback Blake Bortles. Bortles, who was intercepted five times in the final two regular-season games, wasn't asked to carry the load in their Wild Card win over Buffalo. Bortles threw for just 87 yards in last Saturday's victory over the Bills. Bortles did contribute to the win by rushing for 88 yards. Expect nothing short of 30 touches by RB Leonard Fournette as long as the Jags are ahead or in striking distance of the Steelers. Fournette ran for a season-high 181 yards, that included a 90-yard touchdown, in the first meeting and win against Pittsburgh this season.
  The Jaguars permitted an NFL-low 169.9 yards per game passing, ranking No. 2 overall in the league, while surrendering just 16.8 points ppg.
  Temperatures will be in the teens for the game with a high near 18 degrees at kickoff with light winds playing their typical role in a venue in which field goals beyond 45 yards are tricky, at the least.
  Expect both coaches to play this close to the vest in the early stages and let the game situation dictate how it will play out in the second half. Running the football and winning the field position battle is critical for both franchises.
  TOTAL UNDER 41.5 points

[bmd1803]

The Prez

• PREZ NFL DIVISIONAL SIDE ~ WEEK (8-3)
  Game: (305) Jacksonville Jaguars at (306) Pittsburgh Steelers
  Date/Time: Jan 14 2018 1:05 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Jacksonville Jaguars 7.5 (-120)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Play on Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 (good to +7)
  4% play rating
  
  (305) Jacksonville Jaguars at (306) Pittsburgh Steelers
  
  While one game, early in the season, isn't the lone model or example to use when accessing a postseason contest, the Week #5 game between these two AFC franchises saw the Jags find a 30-9 victory in which Big Ben threw five interceptions.
  
  The national media when projecting each team's success in this event may use the fact that the Jaguars defense will travel north to take on Pittsburgh at Heinz Field in a cold weather event, something they are not accustomed to, but all things being equal the Jacksonville defense will excel in conditions of Heinz Field be it warm or cold. The fact that the field is expected to be dry offers a large advantage to the Jags secondary versus the Steelers receivers.
  
  Temperatures will be in the teens for the game with a high near 18 degrees at kickoff with light winds playing their typical role in a venue in which field goals beyond 45 yards are tricky, at the least.
  
  The Steelers are a pedestrian defensive unit without the mind game leadership of Harrison and All-Pro linebacker Shazier and the handicap for this contest finds favor on the Jacksonville sideline.
  
  
  Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 points

• PREZ NFL DIVISIONAL GAME ~ WEEK (8-3)
  Game: (307) New Orleans Saints at (308) Minnesota Vikings
  Date/Time: Jan 14 2018 4:40 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: New Orleans Saints 4.0 (-105)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Play on New Orleans Saints +4 (good to +3)
  4% play rating
  
  (307) New Orleans Saints at (308) Minnesota Vikings
  
  While the Minnesota Vikings defeated the visiting New Orleans Saints in their season opener the makeup for both teams is largely different from that early September contest. If you value experience in big games, NFL postseason events, then Super Bowl winning QB Brees and the Saints are the value play here receiving nearly a touchdown (+5 points).
  
  Case Keenum wasn't part of the Week #1 contest when the Vikes defeated the Saints. Starting QB Sam Bradford earned NFC Offensive Player of the Week after the win tossing for 346 yards and three touchdowns in the 29-19 victory.
  
  Keenum took over the team after the injury to Bradford and led the team to an NFC North crown going 11-3 as a starter.
  
  Brees understands that his window for a second championship comes with this team and he offered his focus last week when he threw for 376 yards and two touchdowns as the Saints defeated the Carolina Panthers for the third time this season.
  
  In a significant move for the Saints, since that season opening loss, was moving Adrian Peterson to Arizona and utilizing the young talents of Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara. Sleeping on this tandems ability would be a mistake. They are the first running back duo in league history to gain more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage. The two also combined for average nearly 5 yards per carry and between the pair found the endzone 23 times via the ground.
  
  Minnesota's offensive found success after injuries to Bradford... but it is also worth noting that the unit lost rookie running back Dalvin Cook to an ACL tear this year, as well, leaving the running attack in the hands of Latavius Murray, who isn't the weapon that Cook was. Murray and McKinnon are receiving threats as well as runners and both, in combination with wideout Stefon Diggs, will have to have big days to outscore Brees and his offensive weapons, especially since U.S Bank offers Brees and company some conditional comfort, this being a domed venue.
  
  The value easily rests with the Saints and the points on Sunday, especially when the Saints hold most all of the big game critical variables to come out on top Sunday.
  
  
  New Orleans Saints +4 points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root

inner circle: Minnesota
No Limit: Jacksonville

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Ma

NFL

Pittsburgh

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merril

NFL

3* new Orleans +5
2* 6-point teaser: Philadelphia +9 / Pittsburgh -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Anthony Michael

#308 Minnesota Vikings -5 (4:40 est) FOX

Have to love the rested Vikings here since they have the best defense in the league and have the advantage of already playing the Saints earlier this season - beating the Saints 29 - 19. Coach Zimmer is an unbelievable 18-3 ATS at home against non-division teams with the Vikings and QB Keenum is 8-2-1 ATS at home against non-division teams. The Saints have only covered 2 of their last 7 games and Brees is 5-7 ATS in his playoff career. Simply have to take the Vikings laying this small of a number here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sky Blue

Vikings -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VSI

3 Unit 7 Point Teaser. Take #306 Pittsburgh 'PK' and Jaguars/Steelers Over 34 (1:05p.m., Sunday January 14 CBS)
I normally don't play teasers here but I couldn't resist playing this 7-point teaser at Heinz Field. Early October the Jacksonville Jaguars came into Heinz Field and beat the Steelers 30-9 and Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for five interceptions. And no touchdown passes. I see a big game from the Steelers offense and wouldn't shock me to see Big Ben have a monster game through the air and the Steelers win big. The Steelers offense is averaging 31.2ppg in their last 7 games and they will put up some points at home and the Jags will need to score more then 10 points if they want to hang around in this Divisional playoff game.

6 Unit Play. Take #305 Minnesota -4.5 over New Orleans (4:40p.m., Sunday January 14 FOX)
Week #1 these two teams played in U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota and the Vikings won 29-19 but both of these teams are so different now. The New Orleans Saints have been playing really good football as of late but their last three road games they were losses to Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Los Angeles Rams. Minnesota comes into this Divisional home playoff game winners of 12 out 13 games and their defense has been the main reason why they have been unstoppable at home. The Vikings defense has allowed only 17 points in their last 3 games and I see defense being the key to a Minnesota victory Sunday night. Saints QB Drew Brees had an outstanding game last weekend against Carolina but again that game was at home and I believe the Vikings defense is much better then the Panther defense. The Saints will have the advantage at QB but look for Brees getting more pressure from the Vikings defensive line then the Panthers gave him. Minnesota takes control of this game in the 4th quarter and I see the Vikings winning this game by a touchdown. Minnesota is 6-2 ATS against NFC teams and the Vikings are 5-1 ATS in playoff home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

7-UNIT SUNDAY: VIKINGS