Sunday 1-21-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Elite Jaguars defense a bad omen for Patriots backers and other conference championship trends
Ashton Grewal

The New England Patriots are the overwhelming favorites (+105) to win the Super Bowl and not for a lack of reasons. They’re the defending champions and are gunning for their sixth Vince Lombardi Trophy since 2002.

Pats QB Tom Brady is a two-time league MVP and the biggest name player in the sport while the other three quarterbacks left in the playoffs would have to wear their team jerseys to be recognized on the street.

New England owns the league’s best total offense and only the Los Angeles Rams scored more points than Brady and Bill Belichick’s crew this season. But sharp bettors have been loading up the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC title game according numerous oddsmakers in Las Vegas and offshore. Scott Kaminsky, the sportsbook director at TheGreek.com, told Covers the same group of sharp bettors backing the Jaguars were on them last weekend against Pittsburgh too.

Jacksonville ranks sixth in total offense and fifth in scoring, but with Blake Bortles under center few people identify the team as an offensive power. The Jaguars' defense is what got them this far which is the polar opposite of New England. The Patriots are in the AFC Championship Game for seventh straight year in spite of their defense which ranks 29th in the league in yards allowed.

We looked back at the all the conference championship games to see if there was any correlation between weak defensive teams and ATS (against the spread) failures in the championship round. We eliminated any matchups with two poor defenses and only looked for games where one team had a top 5 defense and the other side was 24th or lower.

Digging back as far as 1985 here’s what we found:



• It doesn’t happen very often. There were only six cases since 1985 where one team with an elite defense matched up against another side with one of the least effective stopper units.
• Defensive teams aren’t having as much luck in the AFC playoffs. In the last five years, only one top 5 team in total defense (2015-16 Denver Broncos) have made it to the final four.
• The under is the most profitable play in this scenario. Games played under the closing total in the five of the six cases we identified.
• The defensive teams went 4-2 against the spread in the six cases and 3-0 in the three games the defensive teams were getting points.

Here are a few other conference championship trends we dug up:

• Home teams 8-0 SU in last eight conference championship games, going 7-1 ATS.
• Favorites are 16-4 SU in conference championship games over the last 10 years, 12-8 ATS.

AFC

• Home teams are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 AFC title games.
• Only two of the last 18 AFC champions won the conference title game but failed to cover the spread.
• The favored team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight years.
• There have been seven outright upsets in the last 18 AFC title games.

NFC

• The favorite is 4-1 in the last five NFC title games.
• The over is 9-3 in the last 12 NFC title games.

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NFL Conference Championship opening line report: Eagles playoff home dogs once again
Patrick Everson

“Philly in the underdog role once again, but this go-round, they are deserving of the tag.”

After an exhilarating end to the NFL divisional playoff round, it’s on to the conference championship games, with Super Bowl berths on the line. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early movement, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-8)

Jacksonville is the surprise guest of the four still around for this playoff party, finally getting a boost from its often inept offense. The third-seeded Jaguars (12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS) forced two turnovers that led to 14 points Sunday at No. 2 Pittsburgh, but also piled up 31 more points of their own volition on the way to a 45-42 shootout victory as a 7-point underdog.

Meanwhile, there was nothing unusual or unexpected about top-seeded New England earning yet another trip to the AFC title game. The defending Super Bowl champion Patriots (14-3 SU, 12-5 ATS) spotted Tennessee a 7-0 lead Saturday, then steamrolled to a 35-14 victory as a hefty 13.5-point home favorite.

“We didn’t even want to tempt the bettors with anything closer to a touchdown, and it’s a good thing, because as expected, all of the early money is on New England,” Cooley said. “This spread is probably going to creep north as the week goes on, but I’d be shocked if it went off at double digits. I’m certainly not expecting Jacksonville to win with Blake Bortles at quarterback, but that defense could keep things interesting.”

After opening the Pats -8, Bookmaker.eu was already up to 9 by late Sunday night. (Find more online sportsbook reviews at OddsShark.com)

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)

By way of one of the most amazing plays in NFL postseason history, Minnesota (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS) could still become the first team to play the Super Bowl in its home stadium. The second-seeded Vikings appeared dead in the water Sunday, trailing 24-23 at home after No. 4 New Orleans hit a field goal with just 25 seconds remaining.

The Vikings faced third-and-10 on their own 39 with 10 seconds left and no timeouts when quarterback Case Keenum hit wideout Stefon Diggs 30 yards downfield near the sideline. Inexplicably, Saints safety Marcus Williams completely whiffed on what would have been a game-ending tackle if made inbounds, and Diggs raced to the end zone to give the Vikes a 29-24 victory as a 5.5-point favorite.

So Minnesota gets an NFC championship date with No. 1 seed Philadelphia, a team that wasn’t expected to survive without QB Carson Wentz, but remains alive and of course with home-field advantage. The Eagles (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS) went off as 2.5-point underdogs to defending NFC champ and No. 6 seed Atlanta on Saturday, but scrapped their way to a 15-10 victory.

“Philly in the underdog role once again, but this go-round, they are deserving of the tag,” Cooley said. “We saw a lot of moneyline money on that side against Atlanta, and will likely get the same action here. Minnesota was fortunate to get a win in the divisional round, but it was by far the better team.

“Two fantastic defenses on display,” Cooley said of the upcoming NFC title tilt, “which should make for an exciting game for the football purists.”

Minnesota drew the early action Sunday night at Bookmaker.eu, bumping the line up to 3.5.

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NFL Conference Championship Sunday's biggest betting mismatches
Monty Andrews

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9, 46.5)

Jaguars' ball-hawking prowess vs. Patriots' lack of forced turnovers

One of the greatest quarterbacks in history is one win away from yet another Super Bowl trip, as Tom Brady and the New England Patriots host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Championship game. Brady had little trouble against the Tennessee Titans last week, but should have a much tougher time against a Jaguars defense that tormented opposing QBs all season. New England is a big favorite, but Jacksonville has a sizeable edge when it comes to forcing turnovers - and that could even things up this Sunday.

Few teams provided as many defensive highlights this season as the Jaguars, who surrendered the third-fewest points per game (17.4) while limiting teams to a paltry 4.7 yards per play. Jacksonville unrelenting defensive pressure also resulted in a whopping 33 turnovers forced - second only to the Baltimore Ravens. As a result, the Jaguars finished the regular season as one of only six teams with a double-digit turnover margin (plus-10) despite having one of the shakiest pass offenses in football.

New England was very careful with the football this season, turning the ball over just 12 times; only the Kansas City Chiefs had fewer turnovers. Yet, while Brady and Co. took care of the pigskin on offense, the Patriots' defense struggled to produce turnovers. New England finished with just 18 forced turnovers during the season (12 interceptions, six fumble recoveries), ahead of only seven other teams - only one of whom reached the postseason. Look for the Jags to exploit the turnover mismatch this Sunday.

Patriots' surging rushing game vs. Jaguars' suspect run D

Much of the focus will be on how Brady fares against a Jacksonville defense that produced the most sacks in the NFL during the regular season. But a handful of other matchups are also worth watching. How will Blake Bortles fare in hostile territory, having produced one of the worst completion rates of any starting QB this season? How will Rob Gronkowski match up against a Jags defense that allowed just six red-zone targets to tight ends? And can Jacksonville's run D contain the Pats' solid ground attack?

The answer to the final question could very well decide the AFC Championship. And if past history is any indicator, New England could find itself with a decided edge in that matchup. The Patriots have averaged 147 rushing yards over their past three games, all lopsided wins - and while you could attribute the total to an increase in rush attempts, New England still averaged a robust 4.3 yards per carry in those games. Only the Denver Broncos have averaged more rushing yards over their most recent three-game stretch.

The Jaguars defended the pass well in 2017, but struggled against the run. They rank in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards per game allowed (115.2) even after limiting Pittsburgh to 83 yards on the ground this past week. That was more a product of game flow, anyhow; things will be much different against the Patriots, which will put added pressure on a defense that allowed nine more rushing yards per game this season than it did in 2016. If the Jags can't halt the Pats' run game, this could be a laugher.


Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5, 38)

Vikings' third-down dominance vs. Eagles' recent drive-extension woes

Oddsmakers are expecting a defensive struggle Sunday evening as the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles square off with a spot in the Super Bowl at stake. The Eagles won a defensive slog against the Atlanta Falcons last weekend to advance, while the Vikings needed an incredible last-second touchdown pass to stun the new Orleans Saints. Minnesota is a modest favorite for this one, and will look to take advantage of a significant mismatch when it comes to third-down execution.

The Vikings were the top defensive team in the league by several metrics, most notably how they fared in third-down situations. Minnesota has allowed teams to score or extend drives on a minuscule 25.12 percent of their third-down opportunities; no other team in the NFL has a mark lower than 31.6 percent. All those crushed drives helped Minnesota finish second in the NFL in average possession rate at 54.15 percent - and if that happens again Sunday, the Super Bowl will have the host team on the field.

A look at the overall picture would suggest that the Eagles actually fared well on third downs, converting at a 42.0-percent clip - eighth-best in the league. But the majority of those conversions came with Carson Wentz under center - and now that he's out for the season, the Philadelphia offense has been far less effective. The Eagles have made good on just 23.7 percent of their third-down chances over the past three games - the third-worst rate of any team over its most recent three-game stretch.

Vikings' so-so ground game vs. Eagles' sensational run D

With both teams relying on journeyman quarterbacks who didn't begin the season as starters - and with this game being played outdoors - the NFC Championship could very well be decided by the respective ground games. And while both teams have been terrific at defending the run this season, the Eagles also ran the ball extremely well, averaging the third-most yards per game on a healthy 4.4 yards-per-carry average. The Vikings had the volume, but that quantity didn't translate to quality.

Minnesota's 1-2 punch of Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon certainly produced plenty of points; the Vikings averaged a rushing touchdown per game this season, the sixth-highest scoring rate in football. But Murray, McKinnon and the rest of the Minnesota rushing game averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, good for 23rd out of 32 teams. Minnesota does have the eighth-highest yards-per-game average in the league, but that's more a product of running the ball more than 31 times per game.

The Vikings might not get 30+ rushes Sunday - and even if they do, there's no guarantee they will be able to do anything with them. The Eagles are the class of the league when it comes to run defense, leading the NFL in fewest rushing yards surrendered per game (79.6). And while that was largely due to teams skewing heavily toward the pass, Philadelphia also held opposing rushers to a 3.8 YPC average - sixth-best in the league. A repeat performance would almost certainly put the Eagles in the Super Bowl.