Service Plays Super Bowl LII Sunday 2/4/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merril

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No official play on the full game, but I do have a light opinion on the total. Best value is with the 8 prop bets listed below.

(1% opinion) OVER 48.5 (Eagles/Patriots) - 6:30 pm ET (NBC) #101

-Philadelphia’s offense broke out in the NFC Championship with 38 points on 456 total yards
-offense averages 28.5 points per game on the road vs. defenses that allow 21.6 points per game
-Eagles' defense was much worse on the road; giving up 11.1 points more per game (23.5-12.4)

-New England has scored 23 points or more in 15 of their 18 games; expect more of the same
-offense is averaging 28.7 points per game vs. defenses that only allow 22.2 points per game
-Patriots' defense gives up 5.9 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 5.5 yards per play

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No opinion on the side. The key to this game is how well backup QB Nick Foles plays for the Eagles. He has been solid in his two playoff games so far, but he is now playing away from home and on a much bigger stage. Using all games this season would make the Patriots just a 1-point favorite, however adjusting for Foles at quarterback (instead of Wentz) makes New England a 3.5-point favorite, so while I expect the Patriots to win the game, the pointspread is too high. This game will likely be close throughout as the teams trade points back and forth. New England has a history of winning close Super Bowls with their five victories coming by just 3, 3, 3, 4 and 6 point (OT) margins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merril

---

-------------------

No opinion on the side. The key to this game is how well backup QB Nick Foles plays for the Eagles. He has been solid in his two playoff games so far, but he is now playing away from home and on a much bigger stage. Using all games this season would make the Patriots just a 1-point favorite, however adjusting for Foles at quarterback (instead of Wentz) makes New England a 3.5-point favorite, so while I expect the Patriots to win the game, the pointspread is too high. This game will likely be close throughout as the teams trade points back and forth. New England has a history of winning close Super Bowls with their five victories coming by just 3, 3, 3, 4 and 6 point (OT) margins.

Super Bowl Props

Below are my Prop bet recommendations for Super Bowl 52. I recommend playing each prop as 2% of bankroll as some are correlated and dependent on similar outcomes, therefore you must be careful not to overexpose your bankroll. These lines will vary at each sportsbook, so be sure to shop around for the best numbers.

Will there be 3 straight scores from one team?
YES (-185) … This prop has a strong history of cashing in the Super Bowl. In fact, a team has scored 3 straight times in 36 of the 51 Super Bowls (71%), including seven of the last nine games. Last year, both teams had 3 straight unanswered scores in Super Bowl 51 (Falcons/Patriots). Also, it has already happened in three of the four playoff games this year involving the Patriots and Eagles.

Total Receptions by Danny Amendola (Patriots):
OVER 4.5 (-140) … New England will employ a pass-heavy attack, and their focus should be routes across the middle of the field where the smaller and quicker Patriots' receivers have a major edge. Without Julian Edelman on the field, Brady’s go-to receiver has been Danny Amendola. We expect many targets to Amendola on quick, short routes.

Total Receptions by Chris Hogan (Patriots):
OVER 2.5 (-155) … Chris Hogan will be a sneaky weapon for the Patriots in this game. The Eagles' defense struggled mightily in covering inside slot receivers all season, and while Amendola normally lines up in the slot, we expect Hogan to run some quick-hitting routes as well.

Total Receiving Yards by Dion Lewis (Patriots):
OVER 30.5 (-120) … Once Lewis makes a catch out of the backfield, he will have plenty of open space in front of him simply because of the design of New England’s passing offense. The Eagles have slow-footed linebackers, so Lewis will gain plenty of yards after each catch.

Longest Reception by Rob Gronkowski (Patriots):
OVER 25.5 (-120) … Philadelphia's secondary has a major weakness in the deep middle of the field. When New England sends Rob Gronkowski deep, it’s usually down the middle on a linebacker. The Patriots will try to exploit this weakness multiple times, and we only need one successful catch to cash this prop.

Total Receiving Yards by Jay Ajayi (Eagles):
OVER 21.5 (-110) … Since Nick Foles took over at quarterback, Jay Ajayi has been a major weapon out of the backfield. New England's defense has struggled defending pass-caching running backs this season. Ajayi will get a lot of targets out of the backfield in this game, especially since play caller and head coach Doug Pederson has been excellent in attacking an opponent's defensive weakness this season.

Longest Reception by Jay Ajayi (Eagles):
OVER 10.5 (-110) … This goes hand and hand with the Jay Ajayi prop listed above. Once Ajayi makes a catch out of the backfield, he will have plenty of open space in front of him. The Patriots' linebackers have little chance to contain him, so Ajayi will gain plenty of yards after each catch.

2nd Half + OT is higher scoring (vs. 1st half)
YES (-165) … The first quarter has been low scoring and the fourth quarter has been high scoring in many previous Super Bowls which gives this prop value. Teams are also more conservative early in the game as they do not want to make mistakes, but then the team trailing in the second-half takes more chances which often leads to quick scores, returns for TD, etc. The Patriots have a history of slow starts and have not scored in the first quarter in any of the seven Super Bowls during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBAclub info

Toronto Raptors - Memphis GrizzliesOver 208 (O/U) @ 1.961


Boston Celtics - Portland Trail Blazers
Over 201 (O/U) @ 1.970

[bmd1803]

Tony Finn

• FINN SUPER BOWL 52 PICKS/PROP REPORT I
  Game: (101) Philadelphia Eagles at (102) New England Patriots
  Date/Time: Feb 4 2018 6:30 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: New England Patriots -4.5 (-103)
  
  View Analysis
  
  The Picks/Props Report analysis for Super Bowl 52 is lited twice, in the side and total recommendations. The following is the Finn Factor report for Super Bowl LII.
  ____________________
  
  PLAYS
  1) New England Patriots -4.5
  2) Total OVER 48.5
  3) Props are listed following game analysis
  
  There are a large number of situational stats when matching up any two teams. When it comes to Super Sunday there will be various ways to twist and turn the projected picture and make it yours, theirs or ours. However, no two games are every alike. And using last year's stats, or historical stats for the past and use for today's NFL championship is everything but reliable.
  
  Philadelphia and New England both went 13-3 in the regular season, winning the top seed in their respective conference.
  
  The Eagles easily overcame more injuries than did the Pats and found away to overcome the Carson Wentz injury hysteria to earn and hold the No #1 seed to the final Sunday of the season.
  
  Wentz went down in Week 14 and the oddsmakers did a fair job in keeping their pulse on the public's perception of Foles and the team. Most, and that is not an embellishment, believed that the Eagles’ season was over after the injury to Wentz. Hence, the Eagles being underdogs in the Divisional and Conference championship.
  
  The Eagles will be a run-first team in this Super Sunday event. Despite the fact that the Eagles backup signal caller, Foles, has completed over 75 percent of his passes nearing 600 yards that includes three touchdowns and no interceptions. This is the Super Bowl and there isn't any variable more important than experience leading up to and in this big game. The Eagles suffered a large number of player personnel illnesses this week that could and should be laid on the fact the players and coaches didn't do all they could to avoid such an occurrence. More fair would be to state this is not the party that it is for the Brady Bunch.
  
  Foles' true value in this game doesn't match that of Brady and despite his numbers after taking over for Wentz can you trust a quarterback or a defense that falters badly in the final two weeks of the regular season to the defenseless Raiders and Cowboys?
  
  Foles has capable receivers without having a burner that can stretch the Pats secondary. This is the second largest Achilles that limits Foles and the offensive passing game. The combination of Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and tight end Zach Ertz gives the Eagles a chance to throw for 250-plus yards but only if they establish a running game first and foremost with the legs of Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement.
  
  Again, the Eagles want to keep Brady and company off the field today and behind the best offensive line in football the trio of running backs must attack the soft spot in the New England defense and that is the front seven.
  
  Accessing the Eagles defense under the leadership of Jim Schwartz is mission critical. Behind the backfield pressure of All-Pro defensive tackle Fletcher Cox the Eagles keep opposing running games at bay. The Eagles allowed the least yards per game on the ground this year, under 80 per game. As important as Cox is in the trenches the key to the Eagles having success today will be keeping linebackers Nigel Bradham and Mychal Kendricks clean when the Pats do run and keep them away from Brady's spot in the pocket. Conversely, the Eagles will do all they can to move Brady with pressure.
  
  The Eagles secondary is their Achilles and few football doctors like Brady and Belichick are better at pinpointing a team's weakness.
  
  A quick look at the New England Patriots and their matchup against the Eagles offers facts and fiction. Belichick and Brady will not only be pass happy today most of those passes will be quick hitters. Unlike the Eagles the Pats didn't have to overcome multiple injuries during the season. The big two for the Pats this year was losing wide receiver Julian Edelman and linebacker Dont'a Hightower. Outside of the aforementioned the Patriots have been relatively healthy.
  
  Tom Brady is in line to be the MVP of the league and the Super Bowl without a true No #1 wide receiver. Unless you want to consider big tight end Rob Gronkowski just that.
  
  What other quarterback and coaching staff could make Dion Lewis, Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan relevant during a 16-game regular season and make it to the NFL season finale?
  
  The Patriots’ defense isn't anything special, especially the front seven. The unit allowed 360 yards per game this season. But, it is important to note that the secondary is not given the credit it deserves. Especially when they are attacked in the closing stages of games because the Pats have significant leads. The cornerback combination of Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore is better than advertised while the front seven is pedestrian. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will not make any changes for Foles and the bend and don't break nature of his unit will continue to be the theme throughout this game.
  
  Give Belichick and his staff, including Patricia, two weeks to prepare for one team, one game, and a scheme, and it is advised you don't bet against them succeeding.
  
  In conclusion know that this game isn't much different from the regular season. The Patriots will throw the ball around the field. The Eagles will attempt to win the ground and pound war and hold a time of possession edge.. their only way to win.. in truth.
  
  Don't buy into the talk that New England doesn't win Super Bowls by big margins nor are they victorious against the number. The Patriots average margin of victory in their past Super Sunday wins is less than 5 points. They won and covered last year after trailing by 25 points.
  
  It is easy to look back at the history of Super Sunday and use the trends and data at hand. The conference edge is nil with the NFC having a 26-25 record vs the AFC in the first 51 Super Bowl matchups. The Patriots aim to tie the Pittsburgh Steelers with the most Super Bowl wins at six.
  
  Favorites have gone 35-16 straight up and 28-19-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The ‘over/under’ has gone 26-24.
  
  In truth the point spread isn't a big factor in making gamers happy in the Super Bowl. The handicap rarely is a factor in the Super Bowl. Pick the winner and chances are you are cashing at the window. Consider that in 51 big games there has been only six instances where the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the spread (1976, 1989, 1996, 2004, 2005 and 2009)
  
  NEW ENGLAND PATROIT minus the 4.5-to-5 points and OVER the TOTAL OF 48.5 points.
  
  
  ---------
  
  RECOMENDED SUPER BOWL 52 PROPS
  
  1. TEAM TO RECORD MORE FIRST DOWNS
  New England Patriots -3 (-115)
  
  2. TOTAL TEAM POINTS - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
  UNDER 21 (EVEN)
  
  3. TOTAL TEAM POINTS - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  OVER 27 (-135)
  
  4. FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER
  Danny Amendola (NE) +1000
  
  5. FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER FOR THE EAGLES
  LeGarrette Blount +500
  
  6. TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS FOR THE PATRIOTS
  OVER 3 (-125)
  
  7. LONGEST TOUCHDOWN YARDAGE IN THE GAME
  UNDER 43.5 (-115)
  
  8. TEAM TO SCORE THE SHORTEST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME
  Eagles -115
  
  9. MARGIN OF VICTORY
  Patriots by 7-12 points +400
  
  10. MARGIN OF VICTORY
  Patriots by 19-24 points +900
  
  11. TOTAL PASSING YARDS FOR TOM BRADY
  OVER 289.5 (-150)
  
  12. TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS THROWN FOR TOM BRADY
  OVER 0.5 (+120)
  
• FINN SUPER BOWL 52 PICKS/PROP REPORT II
  Game: (101) Philadelphia Eagles at (102) New England Patriots
  Date/Time: Feb 4 2018 6:30 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Total Over 48.5 (-104)
  
  View Analysis
  
  The Picks/Props Report analysis for Super Bowl 52 is lited twice, in the side and total recommendations. The following is the Finn Factor report for Super Bowl LII.
  ____________________
  
  
  PLAYS
  1) New England Patriots -4.5
  2) Total OVER 48.5
  3) Props are listed following game analysis
  
  There are a large number of situational stats when matching up any two teams. When it comes to Super Sunday there will be various ways to twist and turn the projected picture and make it yours, theirs or ours. However, no two games are every alike. And using last year's stats, or historical stats for the past and use for today's NFL championship is everything but reliable.
  
  Philadelphia and New England both went 13-3 in the regular season, winning the top seed in their respective conference.
  
  The Eagles easily overcame more injuries than did the Pats and found away to overcome the Carson Wentz injury hysteria to earn and hold the No #1 seed to the final Sunday of the season.
  
  Wentz went down in Week 14 and the oddsmakers did a fair job in keeping their pulse on the public's perception of Foles and the team. Most, and that is not an embellishment, believed that the Eagles’ season was over after the injury to Wentz. Hence, the Eagles being underdogs in the Divisional and Conference championship.
  
  The Eagles will be a run-first team in this Super Sunday event. Despite the fact that the Eagles backup signal caller, Foles, has completed over 75 percent of his passes nearing 600 yards that includes three touchdowns and no interceptions. This is the Super Bowl and there isn't any variable more important than experience leading up to and in this big game. The Eagles suffered a large number of player personnel illnesses this week that could and should be laid on the fact the players and coaches didn't do all they could to avoid such an occurrence. More fair would be to state this is not the party that it is for the Brady Bunch.
  
  Foles' true value in this game doesn't match that of Brady and despite his numbers after taking over for Wentz can you trust a quarterback or a defense that falters badly in the final two weeks of the regular season to the defenseless Raiders and Cowboys?
  
  Foles has capable receivers without having a burner that can stretch the Pats secondary. This is the second largest Achilles that limits Foles and the offensive passing game. The combination of Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and tight end Zach Ertz gives the Eagles a chance to throw for 250-plus yards but only if they establish a running game first and foremost with the legs of Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement.
  
  Again, the Eagles want to keep Brady and company off the field today and behind the best offensive line in football the trio of running backs must attack the soft spot in the New England defense and that is the front seven.
  
  Accessing the Eagles defense under the leadership of Jim Schwartz is mission critical. Behind the backfield pressure of All-Pro defensive tackle Fletcher Cox the Eagles keep opposing running games at bay. The Eagles allowed the least yards per game on the ground this year, under 80 per game. As important as Cox is in the trenches the key to the Eagles having success today will be keeping linebackers Nigel Bradham and Mychal Kendricks clean when the Pats do run and keep them away from Brady's spot in the pocket. Conversely, the Eagles will do all they can to move Brady with pressure.
  
  The Eagles secondary is their Achilles and few football doctors like Brady and Belichick are better at pinpointing a team's weakness.
  
  A quick look at the New England Patriots and their matchup against the Eagles offers facts and fiction. Belichick and Brady will not only be pass happy today most of those passes will be quick hitters. Unlike the Eagles the Pats didn't have to overcome multiple injuries during the season. The big two for the Pats this year was losing wide receiver Julian Edelman and linebacker Dont'a Hightower. Outside of the aforementioned the Patriots have been relatively healthy.
  
  Tom Brady is in line to be the MVP of the league and the Super Bowl without a true No #1 wide receiver. Unless you want to consider big tight end Rob Gronkowski just that.
  
  What other quarterback and coaching staff could make Dion Lewis, Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan relevant during a 16-game regular season and make it to the NFL season finale?
  
  The Patriots’ defense isn't anything special, especially the front seven. The unit allowed 360 yards per game this season. But, it is important to note that the secondary is not given the credit it deserves. Especially when they are attacked in the closing stages of games because the Pats have significant leads. The cornerback combination of Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore is better than advertised while the front seven is pedestrian. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will not make any changes for Foles and the bend and don't break nature of his unit will continue to be the theme throughout this game.
  
  Give Belichick and his staff, including Patricia, two weeks to prepare for one team, one game, and a scheme, and it is advised you don't bet against them succeeding.
  
  In conclusion know that this game isn't much different from the regular season. The Patriots will throw the ball around the field. The Eagles will attempt to win the ground and pound war and hold a time of possession edge.. their only way to win.. in truth.
  
  Don't buy into the talk that New England doesn't win Super Bowls by big margins nor are they victorious against the number. The Patriots average margin of victory in their past Super Sunday wins is less than 5 points. They won and covered last year after trailing by 25 points.
  
  It is easy to look back at the history of Super Sunday and use the trends and data at hand. The conference edge is nil with the NFC having a 26-25 record vs the AFC in the first 51 Super Bowl matchups. The Patriots aim to tie the Pittsburgh Steelers with the most Super Bowl wins at six.
  
  Favorites have gone 35-16 straight up and 28-19-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The ‘over/under’ has gone 26-24.
  
  In truth the point spread isn't a big factor in making gamers happy in the Super Bowl. The handicap rarely is a factor in the Super Bowl. Pick the winner and chances are you are cashing at the window. Consider that in 51 big games there has been only six instances where the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the spread (1976, 1989, 1996, 2004, 2005 and 2009)
  
  NEW ENGLAND PATROIT minus the 4.5-to-5 points and OVER the TOTAL OF 48.5 points.
  
  
  ---------
  
  RECOMENDED SUPER BOWL 52 PROPS
  
  1. TEAM TO RECORD MORE FIRST DOWNS
  New England Patriots -3 (-115)
  
  2. TOTAL TEAM POINTS - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
  UNDER 21 (EVEN)
  
  3. TOTAL TEAM POINTS - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  OVER 27 (-135)
  
  4. FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER
  Danny Amendola (NE) +1000
  
  5. FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER FOR THE EAGLES
  LeGarrette Blount +500
  
  6. TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS FOR THE PATRIOTS
  OVER 3 (-125)
  
  7. LONGEST TOUCHDOWN YARDAGE IN THE GAME
  UNDER 43.5 (-115)
  
  8. TEAM TO SCORE THE SHORTEST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME
  Eagles -115
  
  9. MARGIN OF VICTORY
  Patriots by 7-12 points +400
  
  10. MARGIN OF VICTORY
  Patriots by 19-24 points +900
  
  11. TOTAL PASSING YARDS FOR TOM BRADY
  OVER 289.5 (-150)
  
  12. TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS THROWN FOR TOM BRADY
  OVER 0.5 (+120)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Richie B - Vegas Sports Masters

NFL:
2* Eagles +4.5
2* Eagles Under 48.5

Props:
2* Brady td passes under 2.5 -165
2* Brady under 295.5 passing yds.
1* Patriots’ completions under 26.5 +135.

NCAA BK (Yesterday 1-2, Last 40 Plays 21-19)
2* Temple -2
2* Oakland -14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Billy Coleman

3* Boston College -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive Sports Group

NE -4

Bost Coll -2
Seton Hall +13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System

Main: Eagles +4.5 (3)

Extras:
Hornets -4 (1)
Bucks -3 (2)
Knicks -3.5 (1)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root

Patriots-4, Patriots-7.5 (+145), Patriots-10.5 (+200).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Don Johnson Advantage One System

February Record (6-8, Yesterday 1-4)

NBA (3-4) , NCAA (2-4), NFL (1-0)

2* Eagles +4.5
2* Eagles Under 48.5
1* Parlay Eagles +4.5 & Under 48.5


SUPER BOWL PROPS
1* L. Blount scores a TD +200
1* J. White pass receptions over 3.5 +100
1* Gronkowski Over 89 yards +125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rockdeman Sports

NFL - 7 point teaser - Eagles & Over

[Calidreaming]

big al nhl pick on Carolina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MidAmerican Sports

NFL - Eagles

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Have to step out for a few hours any help is greatly appreciated. I'll check back an hour or so before kick-off and if anything needs to be posted I'll get them then - GL and enjoy the game!

[Istandfortheanthem]

Paul Leiner has a 3000* Star out!