Service Plays Tuesday 1/23/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

3 Mississippi -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Don Johnson Advantaged One System 252-258

NBA
2* Spurs +2
2* Thunder -10

NCAA
2* Georgia -1.5
2*Creighton -2
2* Kentucky -7.5

[tider10]

king creole--

3** lakers under 209

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEST SPORTS CAPPER

Davidson -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sleepyj

3* Unlv +5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Shaker

3* Iowa / Wisconsin under 142.5

2* Fresno st / unlv under 155.5

2* Dayton / Davidson under 145

2* Bradley/ sw mo under 127.5

2* Tennessee/ Vanderbilt under 143

[DORIS]

LV Pipeline is 17-4 in the past 21 CBB games
CAN ANYONE GET THESE PLAYS ??

[Dmoney221]

LV Pipeline is 17-4 in the past 21 CBB games
CAN ANYONE GET THESE PLAYS ??

Yes, you can actually get them. All you have to do is purchase

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

2* Misisipi -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Derek Hayes

CBB
$200 Providence +15.5

[Dmoney221]

Oskeim Sports 2* CBB Kent St +3.5

Platinum Club's Pinnacle Syndicate Investment


Rotation #524: Texas Tech (-10/-10.5) (-110)


Note: The Platinum Club's Pinnacle Syndicate made a significant money move on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points. This NCAA Basketball game starts at 7 p.m. eastern time.


Rating: 1/4 unit

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Resource

Jan 23: WTA Tennis: Kerber - Keys
Back: Keys win Odds: 2.35
Risk: 10 Units Return:

Jan 24: WTA Tennis: Mertens - Wozniacki
Back: Mertens win Odds: 3.00
Risk: 10 Units Return:

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob - NBA
**SAN ANTONIO (+2 ½) over Cleveland

Rotation #504 – 5:05 pm Pacific

I’m guilty, just like most of you, of thinking that Cleveland was eventually going to right the ship and start playing better. Cleveland has obviously been overrated all season, as they are just 12-32-1 ATS, but I’ve only gone against the Cavs 4 times all season despite my ratings being against them pretty much every game since Tristan Thompson returned from injury. As I’m mentioned before, Thompson is not the defensive force that he used to be and his offense is a negative too, given the quality of offensive players he’s taking minutes from. Cleveland has been outscored by 77 points in Thompson’s 477 minutes this season (-7.7 points per 48 minutes) and he clogs the lane, which makes it tougher for LeBron James to find room to get to the rim, which helps explain James’ -96 plus-minus in just 283.7 minutes when he’s playing with Thompson. Adding in Isaiah Thomas has made Cleveland worse, as his ball-hogging doesn’t sit well with teammates and it takes the ball out of LeBron’s hands. Not only is the offense a bit worse with Thomas playing the he’s a horrible defensive player and the Cavs have allowed an atrocious 124.9 points per 48 minutes in which Thomas has been on the court. Thomas already has a plus-minus of -60 points in just 171.4 minutes (-16.8 points per 48 minutes) and his variance-adjusted plus-minus per 48 minutes is -5.4 points, so he’s certainly a negative impact player.

Cleveland is still being priced like an elite team when they are mediocre for the season and a below average team with their current rotation. In fact, LeBron James has a season plus-minus of -19 points, so the Cavs aren’t even better than average with LeBron is on the court and they’re certainly worse than average with Thompson back in the rotation and Thomas being added – not to mention Derrick Rose now getting minutes again (he has a PM of -5.7 points per 48 minutes). Cleveland is just 10-15 straight up and 3-22 ATS in the 25 games that Tristan Thompson has played and they’re riding an 8 game spread losing streak heading into this game.

I realize that Kawhi Leonard is back on the injury list and that Pau Gasol, Manu Ginboli and Rudy Gay are all out too but the Spurs have a long history of playing well when starters are out and Leonard’s +17 plus-minus (+3.9 per 48 minutes) is not that significant. Gasol has a PM per 48 minutes of +2.6 points, the same as Ginobili, but all of the Spurs key players (the top 11 in minutes played this season) all have a plus-minus per 48 minutes of between +2.3 and +5.9 and three of the top 4 in that category will play tonight (Murray +5.9, Aldridge +4.4, and Anderson +4.2). I do rate San Antonio as a couple of points worse without their missing players tonight but the Spurs are still an average team with the players that will play tonight and Cleveland would have to be 5 points better than an average team to justify being favored by 2 ½ points. Cleveland is closer to 5 points worse than average, given that their average game rating in the 25 games that Thompson has played is -5.8 points. The variance-adjusted rating of those games with Thompson is -2.4 points and the Cavs are worse than that with Thomas and Rose in the rotation. San Antonio should certainly be favored in this game and I’m going to stop waiting for Cleveland to suddenly turn on the switch and start to take more advantage of how overrated they are. Even when Cleveland tries their hardest to play defense they still don’t cover the spread. Recent examples of that include that 2 point loss to the Pacers after they had built a 22 point lead (right after being inspired by a pair of blowout losses) and in their 10 point home loss to the Warriors, when they gave it everything they had and still didn’t cover the spread. Cleveland simply isn’t a good team and I don’t think that’s going to change unless they change their roster. In the past when Cleveland had struggled LeBron James had always had a good plus-minus number and the Cavaliers were horrible when he was off the floor. In those cases, the depth was addressed and LeBron played more minutes in the playoffs and the Cavs found a way to win. This year is different because Cleveland actually has a better plus-minus when LeBron is sitting on the bench (+29 points margin) than when he is in the game (-19 points margin). I’ll take San Antonio in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VSI NBA

NBA BASKETBALL

3 Unit Play. Take #501 Sacramento +6.5 over Orlando (7:05p.m., Tuesday January 23)
Two bad non-conference teams do battle tonight at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida and I know the Magic have won 2 out 3 but I do believe this number is a bit off. The Kings played last night and lost Charlotte but covered the game and tonight I see the same out come in Orlando. Throw in that the Orlando Magic are 1-7 ATS against Western Conference opponents and the Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Eastern Conference games. The underdog in this series is also a perfect 6-0 ATS and with the Kings number moving up give me the underdog tonight in Orlando.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VSI NHL

NHL HOCKEY

4 Unit Play. Take #71 Under 5.5 -125 Los Angeles at Vancouver (10:05p.m., Tuesday January 23)
Tonight at the Rogers Arena the LA Kings visit Canada and the Vancouver Canucks and tonight I see a low scoring game. The Kings got a much-needed victory in their last game beating the Rangers 4-2 but tonight this game is on the road and the Kings have had trouble scoring all month long. Vancouver comes back home dropping back-to-back road games and in those two games only scored 2-goals and tonight I see goalie play from both being key. The LA Kings have been trending UNDER games going 1-3 O/U in their last 4 games and wouldn't shock me to see a 2-1 victory from either team. Kings will have Jonathan Quick in the net (20-16-2, 2.34 GAA, SVPCT .924) and his last 3 starts 2 of them have gone UNDER. Canucks will have Jacob Markstron in the net (12-15-5, 2.76 GAA, .908 SVPCT) and his last start he gave up 4 goals and was pulled so tonight I see him having a better game at home.