Service Plays Friday 1/26/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAINMAN (Not Rainey)

NBA

**Bet 11 Units to WIN 10 Units: #820 Phoenix Suns +1 9pm est

[KTWSports]

Worlds Worst Picker

Ohio +7
Northern Kentucky -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VSI NBA


NBA BASKETBALL

4 Unit Play. Take #816 San Antonio -3.5 over Philadelphia (8:35p.m., Friday January 26)
Nice non-conference battle tonight in San Antonio and tonight I see the Spurs continue to dominate at home. The Spurs are 20-3 and their last home game they beat Cleveland 114-102 and also the Spurs have revenge on their minds since Philly beat the Spurs in Philly earlier in the month 112-106. Getting the Spurs tonight on a short number I see the Spurs taking control of this game in the second half and we cover this game in San Antonio. The Spurs are 6-1 in their last 7 home games and the Spurs are 11-5 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents. The home team in this series is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings and the Spurs are 5-2 ATS at home against the 76ers

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SPS NBA


3-Unit Play. Take #820 Phoenix (+1) over New York (9 p.m., Friday, January 26)

The Suns have had roster turnover and lost their coach this year but what remains is a nice core of young guys playing hard each night. They have TJ Warren, Devin Booker, Tyler Ulis and assorted other unproven guys leading their team and they have had some success so far. The Knicks are 6-19 away from the Garden and this one wont be any different. Take Phoenix to win this one easy.

Best of luck - Strike Point Sports

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Maddux
#803 - NBA - 10 units on Indiana +6
#813 - NBA - 10 units on LA LAkers & Chicago Over 221.5

Added

Phil +4

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DR BOB

3* Pacers+6
2* Raptors-8

***Indiana (+6) over CLEVELAND

Rotation #803 – 4:35 pm Pacific

Cleveland is just 10-16 straight up and 3-23 ATS in the 26 games that Tristan Thompson has played and they’re riding a 9 game spread losing streak heading into this game. Thompson is not the defensive force that he used to be and his offense is a negative too, given the quality of offensive players he’s taking minutes from. Cleveland has been outscored by 80 points in Thompson’s 496 minutes this season (-7.7 points per 48 minutes) and he clogs the lane, which makes it tougher for LeBron James to find room to get to the rim, which helps explain James’ -97 plus-minus in just 293 minutes when he’s playing with Thompson. Adding in Isaiah Thomas has made Cleveland worse, as his ball-hogging doesn’t sit well with teammates and it takes the ball out of LeBron’s hands. Not only is the offense a bit worse with Thomas playing but he’s a horrible defensive player and the Cavs have allowed an atrocious 123.1 points per 48 minutes in which Thomas has been on the court. Thomas already has a plus-minus of -75 points in just 199.3 minutes (-18.1 points per 48 minutes) and his variance-adjusted plus-minus per 48 minutes is -5.6 points, so he’s certainly a negative impact player.

Cleveland is still being priced like an elite team when they are mediocre for the season and a below average team with their current rotation. In fact, LeBron James has a season plus-minus of -29 points, so the Cavs aren’t even better than average when LeBron is on the court and they’re certainly worse than average with Thompson back in the rotation and Thomas being added – not to mention Derrick Rose now getting minutes again (he has a PM of -9.6 points per 48 minutes).

This season is different than in past seasons when the Cavaliers rebounded from a mid-season slump to turn things around in time for the playoffs. In those recent seasons the Cavs were always really good when LeBron James was on the court and all it took was an adjustment in the bench players and LeBron playing more minutes in the playoffs to make them an elite team. This season, the Cavs have been outscored with LeBron James on the court so this is a very different situation than in recent years and the Cavaliers are a worse than average team. That’s hard to digest but it is a fact and the betting markets are not embracing that reality, which is why the Cavaliers have been so bad against the spread all season long (12-33-1 ATS) and are an even worse bet now with their current rotation of players.

Indiana, meanwhile, is still an underrated team that is now 10-5 ATS without the overrated Myles Turner and his absence continues to supply some line value on the side of the Pacers (their rating with and without Turner is exactly the same but the market thinks he’s valuable).

Using all games for the season for Cleveland, and Indiana’s games with Victor Oladipo playing, yields a line of Cavaliers by ½ a point. However, Cleveland is a worse team now with their current rotation and playing at home is not going to resolve their problems. The Cavaliers are just 3-18 ATS at home this season and are now 7-30-1 ATS as a favorite and I don’t think they’re good enough to win this game by 6 points even if they play their hardest. In fact, Cleveland actually gave their full effort the last time they playing Indiana a couple of weeks ago. The Cavs were coming off consecutive blowout losses to Minnesota (by 28 points) and to Toronto (by 34 points) and they came out full of intensity in their game against the Pacers and built a 22-point lead. But, their bad defense ultimately surfaced and the Pacers came back to win that game by 2 points (Cleveland was favored). I bet on Indiana in that game and I like Indiana here even if Cleveland once again gives a full effort defensively. Effort is part of the problem and the other part of the issue is that he Cavaliers simply have bad defensive players on their team and giving more effort does not change that fact.

If you think the revenge motive is enough to get Cleveland to magically play well you should consider that the Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS this season in revenge games and that loss at Indiana a couple of weeks ago was also a revenge game (Indiana also beat the Cavs by 17 points here in Cleveland earlier in the season). Cleveland has only won by more than 6 points in 33% of their home games this season (8 of 24) and Indiana is 3 point better than the average team that the Cavaliers have faced at home this season – so it stands to reason that Cleveland’s chance of beating the Pacers by more than 6 points isn’t very good. I think the line on this game should be pick and I’ll take Indiana in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 2-Stars at less than +6 points.

**TORONTO (-8) over Utah

Rotation #803 – 4:35 pm Pacific

I lost my play against Utah at Detroit when the Jazz made their final shot in regulation and went on to win in overtime. However, Utah is still just 7-13 straight up since Joe Johnson returned from injury (Utah has been outscored by 9.9 points per 48 minutes with Johnson on the court this season) and the Jazz are a worse than average team with their current rotation, which also is without Thabo Sefolosha, who is a positive impact player. Utah, because of their strong home court advantage at high altitude, has always been relatively worse on the road and this season the Jazz are just 6-19 straight up and 10-15 ATS on the road. They managed to barely beat Detroit but that had more to do with the Pistons’ randomly bad 3-point shooting (7 of 31 for 22.5%) than it did with the Jazz playing well. In fact, it’s a negative on Utah that they needed to go to overtime to win a game against a team shooting so poorly form long range. Utah hasn’t won back-to-back games since early December and they haven’t covered the spread after a victory in 6 weeks so I don’t expect them to play well tonight.

Toronto, meanwhile, is one of the best teams in the league and the Raptors median home result this season is a 13 point victory. My ratings favor Toronto by 12 points and I’ll take the Raptors in a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less and for 1-Star up to -9.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ptlocksmith

cavs
Nets
Yale

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bob balfe

Lakers

[batjag]

Marco Sports Unlimited GOW 4% 76ers +4 3% Bucks -6 Knicks -1

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Dr. Bob - NBA - Added

**CHICAGO (-4) over L.A. Lakers

Rotation #814 – 5:05 pm Pacific

The Lakers have won their last 3 games in impressive fashion but my analysis still shows that they are a worse team without Lonzo Ball and the Lakers are still just 3-8 straight up and 4-7 ATS in the games that Ball has missed with an average score margin of -9.3 points per game. Los Angeles is a decent 16-20 straight up and 20-16 ATS when Ball plays and it’s likely that those last 3 games are simply a case of positive variance and not that the Lakers are a better without Ball, which is not the case using full-season data – both in games Ball has missed and in all the minutes Ball has been on the court (-0.8 points per 48 minutes) and off the court (-5.9 points per 48) this season.

The Bulls, meanwhile, are now 13-9 straight up and 18-5 ATS with Nikola Mirotic playing and my ratings favor Chicago by 7 ½ points in this game with current rotations for each team (Chicago being without Kris Dunn makes no difference). I’ll take Chicago in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 1-Star up to -5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mario Rojas (CandelaDeportiva) 1-26-18


Best pick:
(# 827) Dartmouth vs Brown (Total: over 150) *2000

Secondaries picks:
(# 801) Hawks vs Hornets (Total: under 211) *1000
(# 807) Rockets vs Pelicans (Total: over 227) *1000

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Joey Juice

25 DIME

Eastern Conference Game of the Month - Part 2

Cleveland over Indiana. At 9:00 am eastern time, the Cavaliers are -6 points.

[havoc3011]

Millerlocks

7:38 PM EST NBA INDIANA PACERS VS. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS PICK: INDIANA PACERS +6 (-110) RISK: 11 UNITS 8:08 PM EST NBA HOUSTON ROCKETS VS. NEW ORLEANS PELICANS PICK: OVER 227 (-110) RISK: 11 UNITS 8:38 PM EST NBA PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS PICK: PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (-115) RISK: 11 UNITS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Root

Pacers +6