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1* OKC -3
1* OKC -3
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Dr. Bob - NBA added
**Detroit (+7 ½) over CLEVELAND
Rotation #810 – 3:05 pm Pacific
For the first time all season I lost betting against the Cavaliers on Friday night, as they won by 7 as a 6 point favorite over the Pacers. I am not deterred, however, as Cleveland is just 2-10 ATS following a game in which they covered the spread (0-7 ATS favored by more than 6) and they’ve still only won 6 of 23 home games by more than 7 points this season. Cleveland is now 4-18-1 ATS at home and only 8-30-1 ATS when favored. As mentioned in previous anti-Cleveland write-ups, the Cavs are just 11-16 straight up and 4-23 ATS in the 27 games that Tristan Thompson has played and they had lost 9 consecutive games to the number before barely covering on Friday night. My ratings, using all of Cleveland’s games for the season, would favor them by just 4 ½ points this game and the Cavaliers are a worse team with Tristan Thompson (-6.1 plus-minus per 48 minutes) and Isaiah Thomas (-15.3 PM per 48) both playing. There is some variance in those plus-minus numbers but both players would still be significantly negative in plus-minus after adjusting for variance and even LeBron James has a negative plus-minus number this season (-17 points) thanks to playing minutes with Thompson (-83 plus-minus playing with Thompson) and Thomas (-77 PM in just 193 minutes). My variance-adjusted, player-specific ratings with current rotations for both teams favor Cleveland by just 2 points in this game and I’ll take Detroit in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 1-Star down to +6.
***SAN ANTONIO (-11) over Sacramento
Rotation #814 – 4:05 pm Pacific
Willie Cauley-Stein is out for Sacramento and that is going to have a significant affect. It’s not that Cauley-Stein is great, but he’s much better than the big men that are going to take his minutes, which will mostly be crusty veteran Zach Randolph, who can’t jump, and Kosta Koufos. The Kings have been outscored by 389 points in 1755.7 minutes this season when either of those two are on the court (-10.6 points per 48 minutes) and there will probably be some minutes when both are playing (when PF Labissiere, who should also get more minutes, is not on the floor), which is even worse given the -87 points in plus-minus in just 84.4 minutes this season when Randolph and Koufos have been on the court together. I already have the Kings rated worse than their season rating with effective backup PG Frank Mason out and the Kings are just 9-15 ATS this season when Mason has played fewer than 10 minutes and now they’ll be even worse. Sacramento is just 14-24-3 ATS this season when either Randolph or Koufos play, including 1-7 ATS with out, and tonight those two useless big men will probably get more combined minutes than usual.
Sacramento has won two games in a row (one with Koufos and Randolph both not playing) but the Kings are 0-6 ATS after their previous 6 winning streaks, losing those games by an average of 18.2 points, so I’m not too concerned about their recent good play and coach Popovich can use their win at Miami to help motivate his team not to look past this game. An ugly 78-97 home loss to Philly can also serve as motivation and if the Spurs are motivated at all then they’ll kill the Kings tonight. Sacramento is just 4-18 ATS since 2017 if their opponent is coming off a double-digit loss and the Spurs are a profitable 234-188-11 ATS after a loss going back to 2002-03, including 10-6-1 ATS this season. The Spurs are particularly good after a loss when facing a bad team, as they’ve gone 70-36-4 ATS laying 9 points or more after a loss (2-0 this year).
While those trends are supportive of this play the reason for this play is strictly line value. My ratings would favor the Spurs by 13 points in this game using all games this season for both teams and Sacramento has been worse without Mason and they are worse without Cauley-Stein because of the players likely to take his minutes. I favor the Spurs by 16 points in this game and I’ll take San Antonio in a 3-Star Best Bet at -12 or less and for 2-Stars up to -13.Comment
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