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The 52 betting notes you need to know before Super Bowl LII
Joe Fortenbaugh
For those of you who may be wondering about the opportune time to make a wager on either the Philadelphia Eagles or New England Patriots for Sunday’s Super Bowl LII in Minnesota, here’s what we are hearing:
Several seven-figure bets were placed in support of the Eagles during the 10-day window that followed the conference championship games, which moved the point spread from as high as Patriots -6 to as low as Patriots -4. Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Jeff Sherman told us on Wednesday that he wouldn’t be surprised if this line got as low as Patriots -3.5, but he doesn’t expect to see any Patriots -3 point spreads prior to kickoff.
However, according to several of our contacts in Vegas, the Patriots money is expected to show up sometime around Friday when the masses descend upon Sin City. New England has always been a popular public play, as evidenced by the ridiculous R.O.I. the team has delivered over the past two seasons (28-9 ATS, 75.6 percent).
So the bottom line is as follows: For those of you looking to bet the Eagles, you may have missed the best of it. However, there is still a decent chance that this number goes up when the Patriots money begins to show in Vegas. For those of you looking to side with New England, you likely won’t do much better than Patriots -4, barring some unforeseen development.
And now, it’s time to go to work.
*All props courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.
1. In the seven Super Bowl appearances that head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady have appeared in together, the New England Patriots have NEVER scored a point during the first quarter of action. PROP: Will either team score in the first 6:30 of the game: YES +105, NO -125.
2. In those same seven aforementioned Super Bowls, the Patriots permitted a grand total of just 15 points to be scored during the first quarter. The St. Louis Rams (2002) and New York Giants (2008) each scored three points against the New England defense while the 2012 New York Giants jumped out to a 9-0 lead through the first 15 minutes of action.
3. PROP: Which team will score first: PATRIOTS -130 vs. EAGLES +110.
4. Since 2002, the seven Super Bowls that have featured the New England Patriots have been decided by the razor-thin average of just 3.7 points per game. The Patriots defeated St. Louis (2002), Carolina (2004) and Philadelphia (2005) by three points each, lost to the Giants in 2008 by three points and in 2012 by four points, beat Seattle in 2015 by four points and shocked Atlanta in 2017 by six points. Take note that last year’s 34-28 win over the Falcons came during the first overtime in Super Bowl history.
5. Finally, be advised that the slow first quarter starts that have taken place during New England’s Brady-Belichick Super Bowl era have still found a way to produce an average of 19.4 points per first half combined between the two participants. Clearly, this indicates a trend of explosive second quarters.
6. Through 51 Super Bowls, the first score of the game breaks down as follows: Touchdown 25 times (49.0 percent), field goal 23 times (45.1 percent) and safety three times (5.8 percent). PROP: The first score of the game will be: TOUCHDOWN -160, ANY OTHER SCORE +140.
7. In regards to the first score of the game, through 51 Super Bowls, here’s a breakdown of which position has recorded the first touchdown of the game: Wide receivers with 23 (45.1 percent), running backs with 15 (29.4 percent), defense/special teams with five (9.8 percent), tight ends with four (7.8 percent), quarterbacks with two (3.9 percent) and fullbacks with two (3.9 percent).
8. In seven Super Bowl appearances together, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are 5-2 straight-up and 3-4 against the spread, with the under cashing in four of those seven matchups.
9. The team that wins the Super Bowl has also gone on to cover the point spread an astounding 43 times (43-6-2 ATS, 87.7 percent).
10. In the previous 51 Super Bowls, favorites are 27-22-2 ATS while underdogs are 22-27-2 ATS. However…
11. The underdog has covered the number in five of the last six and eight of the last ten Super Bowls.
12. The OVER has cashed in four of the last five Super Bowls.
13. The coin toss: Through 51 Super Bowls, “tails” holds the edge over “heads” by a 27-24 margin. Additionally, take note that “tails” has come up victorious in four straight Super Bowls.
14. The NFC representative in the Super Bowl has won an astounding 18 of the last 20 coin flips (90.0 percent).
15. In the previous 51 Super Bowls, the winner of the coin toss has gone on to win the game only 24 times (47.1 percent). Atlanta won the coin toss last year in Houston, but went on to lose the game in overtime to New England, 34-28.
16. In the seven Super Bowls that New England has played under the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady alliance, the Patriots have won the coin toss exactly one time (14.3 percent), which came in 2012 when the Pats fell 21-17 to the New York Giants in Indianapolis.
17. PROP I LIKE: Torrey Smith OVER 16.5 yards for longest reception (-110 both ways). Smith is one of the most overpaid wide receivers in the National Football League, but he’s still a home run threat who has recorded receptions of 20 or more yards in each of Philadelphia’s two playoff games this postseason.
18. One of the most important situations to watch on Sunday will feature Philadelphia’s third down offense against New England’s third down defense. During the 2017 regular season, the Eagles ranked third in the NFL in third down offense (43.6 percent) while the Patriots ranked 20th in third down defense (39.1 percent).
19. The team to record the first score in the Super Bowl has gone on to win the game 34 times (34-17, 66.6 percent), which includes five of the last six Super Bowls. PROP: Will the team that scores first win the game: YES -170, NO +145.
20. In ten playoff games this postseason, underdogs are a staggering 9-1 ATS.
21. Second-half scoring has overpowered first-half scoring in 14 of the last 19 Super Bowls. Put differently, there have been more points scored during the second half of the Super Bowl than the first half of the Super Bowl in 14 of the last 19 seasons (14-4-1, with the only tie coming in Super Bowl XLVI when the Giants and Patriots combined to score exactly 19 points in each half).
22. Seeing as how Super Bowl LII will take place indoors on an artificial surface, it’s worth noting that New England is 6-1 ATS over its last seven games played on an artificial surface while Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS over its last nine contests played on turf.
23. In addition, the OVER is 10-3 in Philadelphia’s last 13 games played on turf and 67-33 in New England’s last 100 contests played on an artificial surface.
24. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams while the underdog is 5-1 ATS over the last six encounters between these two franchises.
25. The American Gaming Association estimates that Americans will wager $4.76 billion on Super Bowl LII. But, here’s the most interesting part of that estimate…
26. A shocking 97 percent of that $4.76 billion will be wagered illegally across the country, which includes local bookmakers and offshore sportsbooks.
27. A record $138.4 million was bet on last year’s Super Bowl in the state of Nevada. Multiple bookmakers in Las Vegas have been quoted over the past week as saying that they expect this year’s Super Bowl handle to surpass last year’s record-setting mark.
28. According to our friend David Purdum of ESPN, Nevada sportsbooks have come out ahead in 25 of the 27 Super Bowls that have taken place since Nevada Gaming Control began tracking Super Bowl betting back in 1991.
29. N/A
30. PROP I LIKE: James White OVER 10.5 rushing yards (-110): White has notched at least 11 rushing yards in 12 of 16 games this season. But perhaps more importantly, this is the guy who came up huge for the Patriots in last year’s Super Bowl victory over Atlanta with 139 total yards and three scores on 22 touches. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Belichick, in an attempt to keep Philadelphia guessing, turns the keys to the New England backfield over to White on Sunday.
31. Feel free to hate Patriots owner Robert Kraft. Seriously. Since Kraft bought the New England Patriots in 1994 for a price of $172 million, his franchise has qualified for the postseason in 19 of a possible 24 years. And, yes, that includes 17 divisional championships.
32. In the previous 51 Super Bowls, only six (11.7 percent) have been decided by exactly three points. However, of the last 16 Super Bowls, five (31.3 percent) have been decided by exactly three points. Finally, of the seven Super Bowls that have featured the Belichick-Brady alliance, four (57.1 percent) have been decided by exactly three points. PROP: Will the game be decided by exactly three points: YES +375, NO -500.
33. Barring some sort of shocking development over the next few days, Super Bowl LII will mark the tenth consecutive year in which the NFL’s biggest game of the season closes with a point spread of seven points or less. In addition, 2018 will mark the 15th time in the last 16 years in which the closing number was seven or fewer points. The outlier of this group took place in 2008 when the Patriots closed as 12-point favorites over Eli Manning and the New York Giants, who would go on to shock the world by upsetting the undefeated Pats, 17-14.
34. Compare the information in No. 25 with the stretch of championships played from 1994-1999 in which six straight Super Bowls featured a point spread of seven points or greater, with five of those Super Bowls featuring a double-digit point spread.
35. MVP prop: In the previous 51 Super Bowls, the MVP was awarded to a quarterback 28 times (54.9 percent), a wide receiver six times (11.7 percent), a running back six times (11.7 percent), a linebacker three times (5.8 percent), a defensive lineman three times (5.8 percent), a cornerback twice (3.9 percent) and a safety, fullback and specialist once each (1.9 percent).
36. Last February’s epic showdown between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons marked the first time in Super Bowl history that the game went into overtime. Based on several conversations that I’ve had this past week with professional sports bettors in Las Vegas, the sharp action is backing “No” on the following: PROP: Will there be overtime? YES +600, NO -900.
37. Here’s the rundown on how the last ten Super Bowl National Anthems have played out:
Super Bowl 42: Jordin Sparks at 1:54
Super Bowl 43: Jennifer Hudson at 2:10
Super Bowl 44: Carrie Underwood at 1:47
Super Bowl 45: Christina Aguilera at 1:54
Super Bowl 46: Kelly Clarkson at 1:34
Super Bowl 47: Alicia Keys at 2:35
Super Bowl 48: Renee Fleming at 1:54
Super Bowl 49: Idina Menzel at 2:04
Super Bowl 50: Lady Gaga at 2:09 (controversial)
Super Bowl 51: Luke Bryan at 2:04
Pink is scheduled to perform this year’s National Anthem, with the over/under currently set at 2:00 (Over: -180, Under: +140).
38. Through 51 Super Bowls, no team has ever been held scoreless.
39. Through 51 Super Bowls, no kicker has ever converted a field goal from 55 yards or longer.
40. For those of you who may be interested in any proposition wagers that include an over/under on the final Nielsen Ratings for Super Bowl 52, here’s how the last ten Super Bowls have broken down:
Super Bowl 51 (Patriots-Falcons): 48.8
Super Bowl 50 (Broncos-Panthers): 46.6
Super Bowl 49 (Patriots-Seahawks): 47.5
Super Bowl 48 (Seahawks-Broncos): 46.7
Super Bowl 47 (Ravens-49ers): 46.3
Super Bowl 46 (Giants-Patriots): 47.0
Super Bowl 45 (Packers-Steelers): 46.0
Super Bowl 44 (Saints-Colts): 45.0
Super Bowl 43 (Steelers-Cardinals): 42.0
Super Bowl 42 (Giants-Patriots): 43.1
41. There have been exactly eight instances of back-to-back Super Bowl winners since the inception of the NFL’s ultimate game back in 1966. The last time a franchise won back-to-back Super Bowls came in 2003 and 2004 when Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots defeated the Carolina Panthers and—you guessed it—Philadelphia Eagles.
42. Since 2000, the Eagles own the fifth-highest winning percentage in the National Football League. However, of the five teams with the highest winning percentages since 2000—New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Green Bay and Philadelphia—only the Eagles have failed to win a Super Bowl during that time frame.
43. It’s not as if the Eagles dislike running back LeGarrette Blount, it’s just that the organization likes Jay Ajayi more. Case in point, ever since Ajayi asserted himself amongst the Philadelphia running back platoon back in late October following his trade from Miami, Blount’s rushing totals have decreased significantly. Take a look for yourself:
Week 11 at Cowboys: 13 carries
Week 12 vs. Bears: 15 carries
Week 13 at Seahawks: 8 carries
Week 14 at Rams: 7 carries
Week 15 at Giants: 7 carries
Week 16 vs. Raiders: 5 carries
Week 17 vs. Cowboys: 9 carries
Divisional Round vs. Atlanta: 9 carries
Championship Round vs. Minnesota: 6 carries
…with that being said…
44. PROP I LIKE: LeGarrette Blount UNDER 7.5 rushing attempts (-110 both ways)
45. PROP I LIKE: LeGarrette Blount UNDER 27.5 rushing yards (-110 both ways)
46. PROP I LIKE: LeGarrette Blount UNDER 9.5 yards for longest rushing attempt (-110 both ways)
47. Fun Fact: If you eliminate the rookie year when he threw just three passes as well as the 2008 campaign in which Patriots quarterback Tom Brady wrecked his knee in Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs, the future Hall of Famer has played 16 NFL seasons. And in those 16 NFL seasons, Brady has—as of Sunday—appeared in eight Super Bowls. That means it’s more likely that Tom Brady plays in a Super Bowl (50 percent) than two-time MVP and two-time NBA Champion Steph Curry makes a basket (47.7 percent).
48. Teams that score fewer than 20 points in a Super Bowl are 1-23 SU and 3-20-1 ATS since 1980.
49. A 30-second commercial during this year’s Super Bowl will cost approximately $5 million.
50. PROP I LIKE: Will Zach Ertz score a touchdown: NO -200. The Stanford product hasn’t found the end zone in any of his last four outings. Additionally, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is notorious for eliminating the opposition’s most dangerous threat and, when it comes to Super Bowl LII, I believe that to be Ertz. I’m on the “NO” in this spot.
51. The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Philadelphia’s last 15 playoff games.
52. PROP(S) I LIKE: Danny Amendola OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-110 both ways), OVER 4.5 receptions (-110 both ways) and “YES” (+190) Amendola will score a touchdown. Bottom line: I don’t think that tight end Rob Gronkowski will be anywhere near 100 percent for this matchup. And even if Gronk is good to go, Philadelphia will be keying on the Pro Bowl tight end from start to finish. Enter Amendola, who has all the makings of the “scrappy, underdog hero” for this one.
Joe Fortenbaugh
For those of you who may be wondering about the opportune time to make a wager on either the Philadelphia Eagles or New England Patriots for Sunday’s Super Bowl LII in Minnesota, here’s what we are hearing:
Several seven-figure bets were placed in support of the Eagles during the 10-day window that followed the conference championship games, which moved the point spread from as high as Patriots -6 to as low as Patriots -4. Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Jeff Sherman told us on Wednesday that he wouldn’t be surprised if this line got as low as Patriots -3.5, but he doesn’t expect to see any Patriots -3 point spreads prior to kickoff.
However, according to several of our contacts in Vegas, the Patriots money is expected to show up sometime around Friday when the masses descend upon Sin City. New England has always been a popular public play, as evidenced by the ridiculous R.O.I. the team has delivered over the past two seasons (28-9 ATS, 75.6 percent).
So the bottom line is as follows: For those of you looking to bet the Eagles, you may have missed the best of it. However, there is still a decent chance that this number goes up when the Patriots money begins to show in Vegas. For those of you looking to side with New England, you likely won’t do much better than Patriots -4, barring some unforeseen development.
And now, it’s time to go to work.
*All props courtesy of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.
1. In the seven Super Bowl appearances that head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady have appeared in together, the New England Patriots have NEVER scored a point during the first quarter of action. PROP: Will either team score in the first 6:30 of the game: YES +105, NO -125.
2. In those same seven aforementioned Super Bowls, the Patriots permitted a grand total of just 15 points to be scored during the first quarter. The St. Louis Rams (2002) and New York Giants (2008) each scored three points against the New England defense while the 2012 New York Giants jumped out to a 9-0 lead through the first 15 minutes of action.
3. PROP: Which team will score first: PATRIOTS -130 vs. EAGLES +110.
4. Since 2002, the seven Super Bowls that have featured the New England Patriots have been decided by the razor-thin average of just 3.7 points per game. The Patriots defeated St. Louis (2002), Carolina (2004) and Philadelphia (2005) by three points each, lost to the Giants in 2008 by three points and in 2012 by four points, beat Seattle in 2015 by four points and shocked Atlanta in 2017 by six points. Take note that last year’s 34-28 win over the Falcons came during the first overtime in Super Bowl history.
5. Finally, be advised that the slow first quarter starts that have taken place during New England’s Brady-Belichick Super Bowl era have still found a way to produce an average of 19.4 points per first half combined between the two participants. Clearly, this indicates a trend of explosive second quarters.
6. Through 51 Super Bowls, the first score of the game breaks down as follows: Touchdown 25 times (49.0 percent), field goal 23 times (45.1 percent) and safety three times (5.8 percent). PROP: The first score of the game will be: TOUCHDOWN -160, ANY OTHER SCORE +140.
7. In regards to the first score of the game, through 51 Super Bowls, here’s a breakdown of which position has recorded the first touchdown of the game: Wide receivers with 23 (45.1 percent), running backs with 15 (29.4 percent), defense/special teams with five (9.8 percent), tight ends with four (7.8 percent), quarterbacks with two (3.9 percent) and fullbacks with two (3.9 percent).
8. In seven Super Bowl appearances together, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are 5-2 straight-up and 3-4 against the spread, with the under cashing in four of those seven matchups.
9. The team that wins the Super Bowl has also gone on to cover the point spread an astounding 43 times (43-6-2 ATS, 87.7 percent).
10. In the previous 51 Super Bowls, favorites are 27-22-2 ATS while underdogs are 22-27-2 ATS. However…
11. The underdog has covered the number in five of the last six and eight of the last ten Super Bowls.
12. The OVER has cashed in four of the last five Super Bowls.
13. The coin toss: Through 51 Super Bowls, “tails” holds the edge over “heads” by a 27-24 margin. Additionally, take note that “tails” has come up victorious in four straight Super Bowls.
14. The NFC representative in the Super Bowl has won an astounding 18 of the last 20 coin flips (90.0 percent).
15. In the previous 51 Super Bowls, the winner of the coin toss has gone on to win the game only 24 times (47.1 percent). Atlanta won the coin toss last year in Houston, but went on to lose the game in overtime to New England, 34-28.
16. In the seven Super Bowls that New England has played under the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady alliance, the Patriots have won the coin toss exactly one time (14.3 percent), which came in 2012 when the Pats fell 21-17 to the New York Giants in Indianapolis.
17. PROP I LIKE: Torrey Smith OVER 16.5 yards for longest reception (-110 both ways). Smith is one of the most overpaid wide receivers in the National Football League, but he’s still a home run threat who has recorded receptions of 20 or more yards in each of Philadelphia’s two playoff games this postseason.
18. One of the most important situations to watch on Sunday will feature Philadelphia’s third down offense against New England’s third down defense. During the 2017 regular season, the Eagles ranked third in the NFL in third down offense (43.6 percent) while the Patriots ranked 20th in third down defense (39.1 percent).
19. The team to record the first score in the Super Bowl has gone on to win the game 34 times (34-17, 66.6 percent), which includes five of the last six Super Bowls. PROP: Will the team that scores first win the game: YES -170, NO +145.
20. In ten playoff games this postseason, underdogs are a staggering 9-1 ATS.
21. Second-half scoring has overpowered first-half scoring in 14 of the last 19 Super Bowls. Put differently, there have been more points scored during the second half of the Super Bowl than the first half of the Super Bowl in 14 of the last 19 seasons (14-4-1, with the only tie coming in Super Bowl XLVI when the Giants and Patriots combined to score exactly 19 points in each half).
22. Seeing as how Super Bowl LII will take place indoors on an artificial surface, it’s worth noting that New England is 6-1 ATS over its last seven games played on an artificial surface while Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS over its last nine contests played on turf.
23. In addition, the OVER is 10-3 in Philadelphia’s last 13 games played on turf and 67-33 in New England’s last 100 contests played on an artificial surface.
24. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams while the underdog is 5-1 ATS over the last six encounters between these two franchises.
25. The American Gaming Association estimates that Americans will wager $4.76 billion on Super Bowl LII. But, here’s the most interesting part of that estimate…
26. A shocking 97 percent of that $4.76 billion will be wagered illegally across the country, which includes local bookmakers and offshore sportsbooks.
27. A record $138.4 million was bet on last year’s Super Bowl in the state of Nevada. Multiple bookmakers in Las Vegas have been quoted over the past week as saying that they expect this year’s Super Bowl handle to surpass last year’s record-setting mark.
28. According to our friend David Purdum of ESPN, Nevada sportsbooks have come out ahead in 25 of the 27 Super Bowls that have taken place since Nevada Gaming Control began tracking Super Bowl betting back in 1991.
29. N/A
30. PROP I LIKE: James White OVER 10.5 rushing yards (-110): White has notched at least 11 rushing yards in 12 of 16 games this season. But perhaps more importantly, this is the guy who came up huge for the Patriots in last year’s Super Bowl victory over Atlanta with 139 total yards and three scores on 22 touches. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Belichick, in an attempt to keep Philadelphia guessing, turns the keys to the New England backfield over to White on Sunday.
31. Feel free to hate Patriots owner Robert Kraft. Seriously. Since Kraft bought the New England Patriots in 1994 for a price of $172 million, his franchise has qualified for the postseason in 19 of a possible 24 years. And, yes, that includes 17 divisional championships.
32. In the previous 51 Super Bowls, only six (11.7 percent) have been decided by exactly three points. However, of the last 16 Super Bowls, five (31.3 percent) have been decided by exactly three points. Finally, of the seven Super Bowls that have featured the Belichick-Brady alliance, four (57.1 percent) have been decided by exactly three points. PROP: Will the game be decided by exactly three points: YES +375, NO -500.
33. Barring some sort of shocking development over the next few days, Super Bowl LII will mark the tenth consecutive year in which the NFL’s biggest game of the season closes with a point spread of seven points or less. In addition, 2018 will mark the 15th time in the last 16 years in which the closing number was seven or fewer points. The outlier of this group took place in 2008 when the Patriots closed as 12-point favorites over Eli Manning and the New York Giants, who would go on to shock the world by upsetting the undefeated Pats, 17-14.
34. Compare the information in No. 25 with the stretch of championships played from 1994-1999 in which six straight Super Bowls featured a point spread of seven points or greater, with five of those Super Bowls featuring a double-digit point spread.
35. MVP prop: In the previous 51 Super Bowls, the MVP was awarded to a quarterback 28 times (54.9 percent), a wide receiver six times (11.7 percent), a running back six times (11.7 percent), a linebacker three times (5.8 percent), a defensive lineman three times (5.8 percent), a cornerback twice (3.9 percent) and a safety, fullback and specialist once each (1.9 percent).
36. Last February’s epic showdown between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons marked the first time in Super Bowl history that the game went into overtime. Based on several conversations that I’ve had this past week with professional sports bettors in Las Vegas, the sharp action is backing “No” on the following: PROP: Will there be overtime? YES +600, NO -900.
37. Here’s the rundown on how the last ten Super Bowl National Anthems have played out:
Super Bowl 42: Jordin Sparks at 1:54
Super Bowl 43: Jennifer Hudson at 2:10
Super Bowl 44: Carrie Underwood at 1:47
Super Bowl 45: Christina Aguilera at 1:54
Super Bowl 46: Kelly Clarkson at 1:34
Super Bowl 47: Alicia Keys at 2:35
Super Bowl 48: Renee Fleming at 1:54
Super Bowl 49: Idina Menzel at 2:04
Super Bowl 50: Lady Gaga at 2:09 (controversial)
Super Bowl 51: Luke Bryan at 2:04
Pink is scheduled to perform this year’s National Anthem, with the over/under currently set at 2:00 (Over: -180, Under: +140).
38. Through 51 Super Bowls, no team has ever been held scoreless.
39. Through 51 Super Bowls, no kicker has ever converted a field goal from 55 yards or longer.
40. For those of you who may be interested in any proposition wagers that include an over/under on the final Nielsen Ratings for Super Bowl 52, here’s how the last ten Super Bowls have broken down:
Super Bowl 51 (Patriots-Falcons): 48.8
Super Bowl 50 (Broncos-Panthers): 46.6
Super Bowl 49 (Patriots-Seahawks): 47.5
Super Bowl 48 (Seahawks-Broncos): 46.7
Super Bowl 47 (Ravens-49ers): 46.3
Super Bowl 46 (Giants-Patriots): 47.0
Super Bowl 45 (Packers-Steelers): 46.0
Super Bowl 44 (Saints-Colts): 45.0
Super Bowl 43 (Steelers-Cardinals): 42.0
Super Bowl 42 (Giants-Patriots): 43.1
41. There have been exactly eight instances of back-to-back Super Bowl winners since the inception of the NFL’s ultimate game back in 1966. The last time a franchise won back-to-back Super Bowls came in 2003 and 2004 when Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots defeated the Carolina Panthers and—you guessed it—Philadelphia Eagles.
42. Since 2000, the Eagles own the fifth-highest winning percentage in the National Football League. However, of the five teams with the highest winning percentages since 2000—New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Green Bay and Philadelphia—only the Eagles have failed to win a Super Bowl during that time frame.
43. It’s not as if the Eagles dislike running back LeGarrette Blount, it’s just that the organization likes Jay Ajayi more. Case in point, ever since Ajayi asserted himself amongst the Philadelphia running back platoon back in late October following his trade from Miami, Blount’s rushing totals have decreased significantly. Take a look for yourself:
Week 11 at Cowboys: 13 carries
Week 12 vs. Bears: 15 carries
Week 13 at Seahawks: 8 carries
Week 14 at Rams: 7 carries
Week 15 at Giants: 7 carries
Week 16 vs. Raiders: 5 carries
Week 17 vs. Cowboys: 9 carries
Divisional Round vs. Atlanta: 9 carries
Championship Round vs. Minnesota: 6 carries
…with that being said…
44. PROP I LIKE: LeGarrette Blount UNDER 7.5 rushing attempts (-110 both ways)
45. PROP I LIKE: LeGarrette Blount UNDER 27.5 rushing yards (-110 both ways)
46. PROP I LIKE: LeGarrette Blount UNDER 9.5 yards for longest rushing attempt (-110 both ways)
47. Fun Fact: If you eliminate the rookie year when he threw just three passes as well as the 2008 campaign in which Patriots quarterback Tom Brady wrecked his knee in Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs, the future Hall of Famer has played 16 NFL seasons. And in those 16 NFL seasons, Brady has—as of Sunday—appeared in eight Super Bowls. That means it’s more likely that Tom Brady plays in a Super Bowl (50 percent) than two-time MVP and two-time NBA Champion Steph Curry makes a basket (47.7 percent).
48. Teams that score fewer than 20 points in a Super Bowl are 1-23 SU and 3-20-1 ATS since 1980.
49. A 30-second commercial during this year’s Super Bowl will cost approximately $5 million.
50. PROP I LIKE: Will Zach Ertz score a touchdown: NO -200. The Stanford product hasn’t found the end zone in any of his last four outings. Additionally, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is notorious for eliminating the opposition’s most dangerous threat and, when it comes to Super Bowl LII, I believe that to be Ertz. I’m on the “NO” in this spot.
51. The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Philadelphia’s last 15 playoff games.
52. PROP(S) I LIKE: Danny Amendola OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-110 both ways), OVER 4.5 receptions (-110 both ways) and “YES” (+190) Amendola will score a touchdown. Bottom line: I don’t think that tight end Rob Gronkowski will be anywhere near 100 percent for this matchup. And even if Gronk is good to go, Philadelphia will be keying on the Pro Bowl tight end from start to finish. Enter Amendola, who has all the makings of the “scrappy, underdog hero” for this one.
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