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Robert Ferringo
5-Unit Play. Take #520 Providence (-5) over St. John's (Noon)
The Red Storm are off a huge OT win over Butler at home. But they should have a letdown on the road here, especially if they are forced to play without point guard Shamorie Ponds, whom they will probably save for the Big East Tournament. Providence is on the fringes of the NCAA Tournament bubble and absolutely has to have this game. I think they will bounce back from a disappointing effort at Xavier and win their final home game.
2-Unit Play. Take #536 LSU (-2) over Mississippi State (1 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
I am not buying into Mississippi State. They have played one of the weakest schedules in the country and haven't impressed me on the road. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games so they are going to be overvalued. LSU has been very good at home, winning four straight. They matchup well with the Bulldogs and I think that they will get this W.
2-Unit Play. Take #538 Texas A&M (-5) over Alabama (2 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
Alabama looked like absolute trash against Florida in a must-win game this week. They played one of the worst games I have ever seen, at one point missing 20 straight shots. I have no faith in a bounce back. Collin Sexton is obviously rattled after being implicated in the FBI probe, because he has not looked like the same guy the past week. Texas A&M are a bunch of flakes. But they need this one just as badly and they are playing at home, where they have shown a second gear. Home court has been huge in the SEC. I think it will keep playing a role.
2-Unit Play. Take #558 Texas Tech (-4.5) over TCU (4 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
TCU has quietly been playing excellent basketball. But they have also benefitted from a home-heavy schedule against the middle and bottom of the league. Texas Tech beat TCU by 12 in the first meeting in Forth Worth and I think that they could do the same here. The Red Raiders have lost four in a row and blew their shot at winning the Big 12. But I think that they will snap their losing streak in this one. Unlike TCU, they have had to play three of their last four games on the road. They have been outstanding on their home court this year and their seniors should go all out for the for the final home game for their careers.
3-Unit Play. Take #563 Notre Dame (+9) over Virginia (4 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
Virginia is coming off one of the most improbably wins you will ever see, coming back from a seven-point deficit with under eight seconds to play. It's going to be tough to stay up at that level. Notre Dame just got back Bonzie Colson. He's one of the best players in the country and if he and Matt Farrell had been healthy all season long then this would've been a Top 20 team and this spread would've been around 5.5. There's no value being the No. 1 team in the country; UVA is just 2-3 ATS since getting to that point. So the only way to bet them is to fade. Notre Dame needs this game a lot worse than the Cavaliers do and I think that they can stay competitive, even if they probably don't have enough to beat the Cavs in Charlottesville.
1-Unit Play. Take #572 Georgia Southern (-3.5) over Troy (5 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
This line is a little too generous to Troy. Georgia Southern beat them on the road the first time that they played. And now I think that GSU is going to come to play in their final home game of the season. I think Southern is a little better than they've played and this team is looking to build some momentum toward the league tournament. Troy is off an upset win over Georgia State on Thursday. I have a hard time seeing this team pulling off a road sweep this weekend.
1-Unit Play. Take #578 N.C. State (-1.5) over Louisville (6 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
I don't see how Louisville can possibly rebound from their soul-crushing home loss to Virginia. This is a monster letdown spot for them against an NC State team that is looking for another win to build their NCAA Tournament resume.
1-Unit Play. Take #581 Georgia (+9.5) over Tennessee (6 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
I don't think that UGA has a prayer of winning this game. But Mark Fox teams are always tough underdogs and they have a way of hanging around in games. I think they will be able to grind this one down and find a way to make the points hold up.
2-Unit Play. Take #600 Utah (-9) over Colorado (7 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #630 USC (-4.5) over UCLA (10 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #668 Idaho (-13.5) over Southern Utah (10 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
This is a buy back. We got screwed by the Vandals in their last game, as they blew a 20-point lead (against a 16-point line) with 1:20 to play. This is a senior-laden team and I just have a hard time thinking that they won't blow one of these weak sisters out in their final homestand of their careers.
7-Unit Play. Take #638 Purdue (-6.5) over Penn State (4:30 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
I think that Penn State has gone as far as they can go. They have had a nice run and picked up two wins that they needed to get for their NCAA Tournament resume, including a thrilling winner yesterday over Ohio State. But this is the game where the lack of Mike Watkins is going to really hurt them. Purdue just pummels teams on the inside with their size. And Penn State doesn't have enough bodies to throw at them. It took Purdue a while to get going yesterday. They were playing the local underdog (Rutgers) and it just takes the top teams a little while to get going against teams that have had some tournament time under their belts. But this is now three games in three days for Penn State, Purdue got the kinks out yesterday, and now this is just a matchup nightmare that works in the Boilermakers' favor. Purdue and Michigan State are on a collision course and if there is going to be a blowout in the semifinals I think this is the game.
1-Unit Play. Take #640 Loyola-Chicago (-6) over Bradley (3:30 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #643 San Diego (+5) over BYU (4 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
San Diego is the fourth-best team in the WCC. But due to tiebreakers they were the No. 6 seed. That's a bad break for BYU and I think that the Toreros are going to give the Cougars a game. San Diego likes to slow games down to a crawl and they wear teams down with their defense. If that is the case then this shouldn't be more than a two-possession game one way or another. This is one I think USD could win so I will take the points.
1-Unit Play. Take #657 Elon (-1) over Delaware (6:30 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
Elon is the quintessential Second Life team. This team had high expectations and really does have some solid experience and talent on the roster. But they flopped in league play and have lost six straight to end the year. But now that it is tournament time they get a new lease on life and I expect them to come out firing. Even though they bounced back with a win, I still think Delaware is a little rattled by giving up that all-time comeback to Drexel last week. They also just beat Elon on Feb. 17 and I think that Elon is going to win the rubber match between these two.
2-Unit Play. Take #671 Citadel (+16.5) over UNC-Greensboro (Noon)
It is very tough for the No. 1 seeds in these tournaments to come out firing in the noon games. Especially against teams that already got the jitters out in wins the previous day. Citadel is a tough team to blowout because of their style of play. I think that they will make some shots and keep this one respectable while UNC-G finds its sea legs.
1-Unit Play. Take #677 Western Carolina (+14.5) over Furman (8:30 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #697 Maine (+21.5) over Vermont (7 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
Carpe diem. Good luck.
5-Unit Play. Take #520 Providence (-5) over St. John's (Noon)
The Red Storm are off a huge OT win over Butler at home. But they should have a letdown on the road here, especially if they are forced to play without point guard Shamorie Ponds, whom they will probably save for the Big East Tournament. Providence is on the fringes of the NCAA Tournament bubble and absolutely has to have this game. I think they will bounce back from a disappointing effort at Xavier and win their final home game.
2-Unit Play. Take #536 LSU (-2) over Mississippi State (1 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
I am not buying into Mississippi State. They have played one of the weakest schedules in the country and haven't impressed me on the road. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games so they are going to be overvalued. LSU has been very good at home, winning four straight. They matchup well with the Bulldogs and I think that they will get this W.
2-Unit Play. Take #538 Texas A&M (-5) over Alabama (2 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
Alabama looked like absolute trash against Florida in a must-win game this week. They played one of the worst games I have ever seen, at one point missing 20 straight shots. I have no faith in a bounce back. Collin Sexton is obviously rattled after being implicated in the FBI probe, because he has not looked like the same guy the past week. Texas A&M are a bunch of flakes. But they need this one just as badly and they are playing at home, where they have shown a second gear. Home court has been huge in the SEC. I think it will keep playing a role.
2-Unit Play. Take #558 Texas Tech (-4.5) over TCU (4 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
TCU has quietly been playing excellent basketball. But they have also benefitted from a home-heavy schedule against the middle and bottom of the league. Texas Tech beat TCU by 12 in the first meeting in Forth Worth and I think that they could do the same here. The Red Raiders have lost four in a row and blew their shot at winning the Big 12. But I think that they will snap their losing streak in this one. Unlike TCU, they have had to play three of their last four games on the road. They have been outstanding on their home court this year and their seniors should go all out for the for the final home game for their careers.
3-Unit Play. Take #563 Notre Dame (+9) over Virginia (4 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
Virginia is coming off one of the most improbably wins you will ever see, coming back from a seven-point deficit with under eight seconds to play. It's going to be tough to stay up at that level. Notre Dame just got back Bonzie Colson. He's one of the best players in the country and if he and Matt Farrell had been healthy all season long then this would've been a Top 20 team and this spread would've been around 5.5. There's no value being the No. 1 team in the country; UVA is just 2-3 ATS since getting to that point. So the only way to bet them is to fade. Notre Dame needs this game a lot worse than the Cavaliers do and I think that they can stay competitive, even if they probably don't have enough to beat the Cavs in Charlottesville.
1-Unit Play. Take #572 Georgia Southern (-3.5) over Troy (5 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
This line is a little too generous to Troy. Georgia Southern beat them on the road the first time that they played. And now I think that GSU is going to come to play in their final home game of the season. I think Southern is a little better than they've played and this team is looking to build some momentum toward the league tournament. Troy is off an upset win over Georgia State on Thursday. I have a hard time seeing this team pulling off a road sweep this weekend.
1-Unit Play. Take #578 N.C. State (-1.5) over Louisville (6 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
I don't see how Louisville can possibly rebound from their soul-crushing home loss to Virginia. This is a monster letdown spot for them against an NC State team that is looking for another win to build their NCAA Tournament resume.
1-Unit Play. Take #581 Georgia (+9.5) over Tennessee (6 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
I don't think that UGA has a prayer of winning this game. But Mark Fox teams are always tough underdogs and they have a way of hanging around in games. I think they will be able to grind this one down and find a way to make the points hold up.
2-Unit Play. Take #600 Utah (-9) over Colorado (7 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #630 USC (-4.5) over UCLA (10 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #668 Idaho (-13.5) over Southern Utah (10 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
This is a buy back. We got screwed by the Vandals in their last game, as they blew a 20-point lead (against a 16-point line) with 1:20 to play. This is a senior-laden team and I just have a hard time thinking that they won't blow one of these weak sisters out in their final homestand of their careers.
7-Unit Play. Take #638 Purdue (-6.5) over Penn State (4:30 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
I think that Penn State has gone as far as they can go. They have had a nice run and picked up two wins that they needed to get for their NCAA Tournament resume, including a thrilling winner yesterday over Ohio State. But this is the game where the lack of Mike Watkins is going to really hurt them. Purdue just pummels teams on the inside with their size. And Penn State doesn't have enough bodies to throw at them. It took Purdue a while to get going yesterday. They were playing the local underdog (Rutgers) and it just takes the top teams a little while to get going against teams that have had some tournament time under their belts. But this is now three games in three days for Penn State, Purdue got the kinks out yesterday, and now this is just a matchup nightmare that works in the Boilermakers' favor. Purdue and Michigan State are on a collision course and if there is going to be a blowout in the semifinals I think this is the game.
1-Unit Play. Take #640 Loyola-Chicago (-6) over Bradley (3:30 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #643 San Diego (+5) over BYU (4 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
San Diego is the fourth-best team in the WCC. But due to tiebreakers they were the No. 6 seed. That's a bad break for BYU and I think that the Toreros are going to give the Cougars a game. San Diego likes to slow games down to a crawl and they wear teams down with their defense. If that is the case then this shouldn't be more than a two-possession game one way or another. This is one I think USD could win so I will take the points.
1-Unit Play. Take #657 Elon (-1) over Delaware (6:30 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
Elon is the quintessential Second Life team. This team had high expectations and really does have some solid experience and talent on the roster. But they flopped in league play and have lost six straight to end the year. But now that it is tournament time they get a new lease on life and I expect them to come out firing. Even though they bounced back with a win, I still think Delaware is a little rattled by giving up that all-time comeback to Drexel last week. They also just beat Elon on Feb. 17 and I think that Elon is going to win the rubber match between these two.
2-Unit Play. Take #671 Citadel (+16.5) over UNC-Greensboro (Noon)
It is very tough for the No. 1 seeds in these tournaments to come out firing in the noon games. Especially against teams that already got the jitters out in wins the previous day. Citadel is a tough team to blowout because of their style of play. I think that they will make some shots and keep this one respectable while UNC-G finds its sea legs.
1-Unit Play. Take #677 Western Carolina (+14.5) over Furman (8:30 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
1-Unit Play. Take #697 Maine (+21.5) over Vermont (7 p.m., Saturday, March 3)
Carpe diem. Good luck.
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