Saturday 3-10-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #4 - AQUEDUCT - 2:47 PM EASTERN POST
8.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $32,000.00 CLAIMING $50,000.00 PURSE

#6 HEY BRACIOLE
#1 FLICK OF AN EYE
#3 MADDIZASKAR
#2 SPRING FOR MORE

#6 HEY BRACIOLE has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her last five outings, hitting the board in four of those outings, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her last two starts, with her last win being posted against better company (+4) than she will back in this field today. #1 FLICK OF AN EYE, the over speed and pace profile leader, also drops in class (-6) and has hit the board in two of her last three starts, winning in her 3rd race back, however, kindly note that these two outings did not qualify for my criteria to be tabbed "POWER RUNS."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 65

FOR NATIVE FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON $8,000 SINCE SEPTEMBER 9, 2017. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 13, 2017 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 31 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 AZOTE 8/5

# 1 EL CONTROLADOR 20/1

# 6 CUATRO Y TRES 7/2

I back AZOTE here. Henriquez has this gelding travelling well and is a very good pick based on the competitive speed figures recorded in sprint races lately. He has been moving very well recently while recording strong speed figures. Has to be considered based on the quite good speed fig earned in the last competition. EL CONTROLADOR - Is a contender - given the 56 speed rating from his most recent race. Expect this equine to be close at the finish line versus these mounts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Fair Grounds - Race #7 - Post: 4:05pm - Stakes - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 106 Nelson J. Menard Memorial Overnight S.

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 JUSTA LADY (ML=8/1)
#11 TRIPLE CHELSEA (ML=3/1)


JUSTA LADY - This mare is rounding her way back into shape. Should compete well today. This mare is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Asmussen. You should ignore that last event at Fair Grounds on the soft turf where she finished outside the top 3. Should do well in today's race under better track conditions. TRIPLE CHELSEA - This mare is a gem of consistency, almost always in the money. This is the only real stalker in the race. This thoroughbred coming off a solid effort in the last 30 days is a strong challenger in my humble opinion.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 STALLION HEIRESS (ML=9/2), #9 THERE'SYOURTROUBLE (ML=6/1), #7 BURMA ROAD (ML=8/1),

STALLION HEIRESS - A pattern of decreasing speed ratings 98/69/40 for this runner. THERE'SYOURTROUBLE - The very long layoff will probably be too much for this questionable contender. Difficult to bet on this less than sharp equine this time. Make her show you something in a sprint event before you wager on her in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. Not likely that the speed fig she garnered on Aug 15th will be good enough in this race. BURMA ROAD - 8/1 is too short of a value to take on most any animal that has run poorly in back to back efforts.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #8 JUSTA LADY to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [8,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
[8,11] with [8,11] with [2,3,4,5,7] Total Cost: $10

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[8,11] with [8,11] with [4,5,7] with [2,3,4,5,7] Total Cost: $24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - SA - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6900 Class Rating: 97

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000, NEBRASKA-BRED $6,500, OR LESS IN 2017 - 2018. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 DUKE OF LUKE 5/2

# 1 MY BROTHER DON 6/1

# 5 NECESSARY PARTY 6/1

DUKE OF LUKE gets the edge as the wager in here. Is tough not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been respectable - 87 avg - of late. With a quite good 80 Equibase Speed Fig last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this outing. The average class fig alone makes this one a key contender. MY BROTHER DON - Formidable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this horse a solid contender. A solid 94 avg class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this group. NECESSARY PARTY - Has ran solidly in dirt sprint races. The Equibase Speed Fig of 81 from his latest race looks formidable in here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sam Houston Race Park

Sam Houston Race Park - Race 9

WPS / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Houston Hi-Five


Maiden Claiming $50,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 9:44P
(PLUS UP TO $1,800 ATB) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. STEVIE GIRL WONDER is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * STEVIE GIRL WONDER: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation o r an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3
STEVIE GIRL WONDER
9/5

2/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
3
STEVIE GIRL WONDER
3

9/5
Front-runner
57

60

91.0

57.8

52.8
5
SASHAY GAL
5

6/1
Front-runner
64

44

59.1

29.5

19.0
6
OKIE TRAIL
6

7/2
Stalker
49

47

40.8

44.6

36.1
7
SNORING SUZZZZ
7

10/1
Alternator/Stalker
54

57

55.0

47.6

39.1
4
RANGERS DEELITE
4

5/2
Alternator/Stalker
68

57

50.0

45.1

41.1
1
EATON'S NOCKIN
1

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

66.4

31.3

22.3
8
SOUTHERN STREAM
8

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

29.9

26.5

16.0
2
SEEK THE TREASURE
2

30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

17.3

5.3

0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs

Louisiana Downs - Race 6

Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)


Maiden • 220 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 58 • Purse: $11,300 • Post: 3:00P
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * AJS CORONA CHICK: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. JLA MR MAKEIT HAPPEN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Styl e designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HEZA MAGIC CORONAS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6
AJS CORONA CHICK
5/2

7/2
5
JLA MR MAKEIT HAPPEN
3/1

4/1
7
HEZA MAGIC CORONAS
8/5

5/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
5
JLA MR MAKEIT HAPPEN
6

3/1
Fast
82

71

0.0

0.0

0.0
6
AJS CORONA CHICK
7

5/2
Average
82

77

0.0

0.0

0.0
7
HEZA MAGIC CORONAS
8

8/5
Fast
82

68

0.0

0.0

0.0








Unknown Running Style: TM FAST PRIZE DOLL (10/1) [Jockey: Cabrera Rolando - Trainer: McCreary John], TM CANDY CRUSHER (10/1) [Jockey: Duenez Luciano - Trainer: Weeks Kenneth], EYES RUNAWAY DASH (20/1) [Jockey: Torres Juan M - Trainer: Gonzalez Faviol

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #10 - Post: 4:50pm - Stakes - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $200,000 Class Rating: 100 Florida Oaks (Grade 3)

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 GOODTHINGSTAKETIME (IRE) (ML=6/1)
#11 SOUPER STRIKING (ML=10/1)
#12 SALSA BELLA (FR) (ML=4/1)


GOODTHINGSTAKETIME (IRE) - The horse with the top average class rating in turf events is usually a solid play. This thoroughbred fits the bill. SOUPER STRIKING - Using this rider/trainer combination is a good choice. I like a pony that manages to hit the board as often as this filly. Almost always in the money so don't leave her out of your exotic bets. The improved speed ratings over the last 3 races is strong. Trombetta drops her in this race ready to win. SALSA BELLA (FR) - Brown has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to watch out for the longer priced half. Brown has a very solid win percent in grass routes. This filly should be ready to win. Ortiz was aboard this filly in the last race and was impressed enough to take the equine right back. Can't help but like the 2nd time addition of Lasix by the trainer today. An indication Brown thinks she can win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ALTEA (FR) (ML=7/2), #6 CLOSER STILL (IRE) (ML=6/1), #4 ALMOND ROCA (ML=8/1),

ALTEA (FR) - Can't play this morning-line choice off the long layoff. While Equibase's speed ratings are strong, I would totally disregard the high one from the Oct 18th on the soft turf. Some horses just run well on the off going. CLOSER STILL (IRE) - When examining today's Equibase class figure, she will have to record a better speed rating than last time around the track to battle in this turf route. ALMOND ROCA - When checking today's class rating, she will have to register a much better speed fig than in the last race to compete in this turf route.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - GOODTHINGSTAKETIME (IRE) - This foreign import has had success at major tracks overseas.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #9 GOODTHINGSTAKETIME (IRE) on top if we're getting at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
9 with [11,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [9,11,12] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[9,11,12] with [9,11,12] with [5,7,9,11,12] with [5,7,9,11,12] Total Cost: $36

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
[9,11,12] with [9,11,12] with [5,9,11,12] with [3,5,7,9,11,12] with [3,5,7,9,11,12] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, March 10


TX-Arlington @ LA-Lafayette

Game 511-512
March 10, 2018 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
TX-Arlington
54.895
LA-Lafayette
58.463
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA-Lafayette
by 3 1/2
164
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA-Lafayette
by 6
159 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
TX-Arlington
(+6); Over

Georgia Southern @ Georgia State

Game 513-514
March 10, 2018 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Southern
55.672
Georgia State
55.529
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia Southern
Even
148
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia State
by 3 1/2
143 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia Southern
(+3 1/2); Over

Memphis @ Cincinnati

Game 515-516
March 10, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
54.327
Cincinnati
73.856
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 19 1/2
125
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 16
131
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-16); Under

Houston @ Wichita State

Game 517-518
March 10, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
67.812
Wichita State
73.751
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wichita State
by 6
147
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wichita State
by 3
154 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Wichita State
(-3); Under

St Joseph's @ Rhode Island

Game 519-520
March 10, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St Joseph's
61.435
Rhode Island
65.523
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Rhode Island
by 4
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Rhode Island
by 7 1/2
142
Dunkel Pick:
St Joseph's
(+7 1/2); Over

Davidson @ St Bonaventure

Game 521-522
March 10, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Davidson
62.309
St Bonaventure
63.418
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St Bonaventure
by 1
150
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Davidson
by 2
146
Dunkel Pick:
St Bonaventure
(+2); Over

Alabama @ Kentucky

Game 523-524
March 10, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Alabama
66.298
Kentucky
72.311
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kentucky
by 6
137
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kentucky
by 3 1/2
144 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kentucky
(-3 1/2); Under

Arkansas @ Tennessee

Game 525-526
March 10, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arkansas
64.442
Tennessee
69.935
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 5 1/2
138
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 3
143 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-3); Under

Cornell @ Harvard

Game 527-528
March 10, 2018 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cornell
49.762
Harvard
53.228
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Harvard
by 3 1/2
146
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Harvard
by 6
141
Dunkel Pick:
Cornell
(+6); Over

Yale @ Pennsylvania

Game 529-530
March 10, 2018 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Yale
53.464
Pennsylvania
56.895
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pennsylvania
by 3 1/2
147
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pennsylvania
by 7
142 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Yale
(+7); Over

West Virginia @ Kansas

Game 531-532
March 10, 2018 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
West Virginia
71.723
Kansas
75.365
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas
by 3 1/2
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas
by 1
155
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas
(-1); Under

San Diego St @ New Mexico

Game 533-534
March 10, 2018 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego St
63.446
New Mexico
57.611
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego St
by 6
151
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego St
by 4
155
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego St
(-4); Under

Providence @ Villanova

Game 535-536
March 10, 2018 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Providence
65.223
Villanova
75.318
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Villanova
by 10
154
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Villanova
by 13 1/2
147
Dunkel Pick:
Providence
(+13 1/2); Over

Toledo @ Buffalo

Game 537-538
March 10, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toledo
59.572
Buffalo
62.600
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 3
168
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 6 1/2
163 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toledo
(+6 1/2); Over

North Carolina @ Virginia

Game 539-540
March 10, 2018 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
North Carolina
70.409
Virginia
77.562
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia
by 7
124
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia
by 4 1/2
131
Dunkel Pick:
Virginia
(-4 1/2); Under

Marshall @ Western Kentucky

Game 541-542
March 10, 2018 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Marshall
54.386
Western Kentucky
61.419
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Western Kentucky
by 7
156
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Kentucky
by 5 1/2
165 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Western Kentucky
(-5 1/2); Under

USC @ Arizona

Game 543-544
March 10, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
USC
69.412
Arizona
70.552
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1
150
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 3 1/2
143 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
USC
(+3 1/2); Over

CS-Fullerton @ UC-Irvine

Game 545-546
March 10, 2018 @ 12:00 am

Dunkel Rating:
CS-Fullerton
54.386
UC-Irvine
53.228
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
CS-Fullerton
by 1
138
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UC-Irvine
by 3
133
Dunkel Pick:
CS-Fullerton
(+3); Over

East Washington @ Montana

Game 547-548
March 10, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
East Washington
55.678
Montana
60.723
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Montana
by 5
137
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montana
by 3
142 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Montana
(-3); Under

MD-Baltimore Co @ Vermont

Game 549-550
March 10, 2018 @ 11:00 am

Dunkel Rating:
MD-Baltimore Co
51.029
Vermont
64.125
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vermont
by 13
142
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vermont
by 11
135
Dunkel Pick:
Vermont
(-11); Over

NC Central @ Hampton

Game 551-552
March 10, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC Central
45.636
Hampton
47.198
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hampton
by 1 1/2
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Hampton
by 4
143 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NC Central
(+4); Over

Texas Southern @ AR-Pine Bluff

Game 553-554
March 10, 2018 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas Southern
45.445
AR-Pine Bluff
41.590
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas Southern
by 4
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas Southern
by 6 1/2
144
Dunkel Pick:
AR-Pine Bluff
(+6 1/2); Over

Stephen F Austin @ SE Louisiana

Game 555-556
March 10, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Stephen F Austin
56.738
SE Louisiana
48.659
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Stephen F Austin
by 8
137
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Stephen F Austin
by 5 1/2
142
Dunkel Pick:
Stephen F Austin
(-5 1/2); Under

Grand Canyon @ New Mexico St

Game 557-558
March 10, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Grand Canyon
53.253
New Mexico St
61.786
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Mexico St
by 8 1/2
128
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Mexico St
by 5
134
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico St
(-5); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TX-ARLINGTON (20 - 12) vs. LA-LAFAYETTE (27 - 5) - 3/10/2018, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TX-ARLINGTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents this season.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games in March games since 1997.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) on Saturday games this season.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.
LA-LAFAYETTE is 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
TX-ARLINGTON is 50-25 ATS (+22.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
TX-ARLINGTON is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
LA-LAFAYETTE is 4-1 against the spread versus TX-ARLINGTON over the last 3 seasons
LA-LAFAYETTE is 4-2 straight up against TX-ARLINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


GA SOUTHERN (21 - 11) vs. GEORGIA ST (22 - 10) - 3/10/2018, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
GA SOUTHERN is 5-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA ST is 3-3 straight up against GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MEMPHIS (21 - 12) vs. CINCINNATI (28 - 4) - 3/10/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 160-112 ATS (+36.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 119-159 ATS (-55.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


HOUSTON (25 - 6) vs. WICHITA ST (25 - 6) - 3/10/2018, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
WICHITA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
WICHITA ST is 1-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ST JOSEPHS (16 - 15) vs. RHODE ISLAND (24 - 6) - 3/10/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RHODE ISLAND is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
RHODE ISLAND is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
ST JOSEPHS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ST JOSEPHS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
ST JOSEPHS is 3-2 against the spread versus RHODE ISLAND over the last 3 seasons
ST JOSEPHS is 3-2 straight up against RHODE ISLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DAVIDSON (19 - 11) vs. ST BONAVENTURE (25 - 6) - 3/10/2018, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
DAVIDSON is 3-2 against the spread versus ST BONAVENTURE over the last 3 seasons
DAVIDSON is 3-2 straight up against ST BONAVENTURE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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ALABAMA (19 - 14) vs. KENTUCKY (22 - 10) - 3/10/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 87-60 ATS (+21.0 Units) in March games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 5-1 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 6-0 straight up against ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


ARKANSAS (23 - 10) vs. TENNESSEE (24 - 7) - 3/10/2018, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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CORNELL (12 - 15) vs. HARVARD (17 - 12) - 3/10/2018, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
HARVARD is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) after a conference game this season.
HARVARD is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
CORNELL is 3-2 against the spread versus HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
HARVARD is 5-1 straight up against CORNELL over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


YALE (16 - 14) at PENNSYLVANIA (22 - 8) - 3/10/2018, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
YALE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
YALE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.
YALE is 136-98 ATS (+28.2 Units) in road games since 1997.
YALE is 136-98 ATS (+28.2 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
YALE is 88-63 ATS (+18.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
YALE is 92-61 ATS (+24.9 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
YALE is 86-61 ATS (+18.9 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
YALE is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
YALE is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 97-136 ATS (-52.6 Units) in all home games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 97-136 ATS (-52.6 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 37-60 ATS (-29.0 Units) in home games on Saturday games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) in home games after a conference game since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
YALE is 4-2 against the spread versus PENNSYLVANIA over the last 3 seasons
YALE is 4-2 straight up against PENNSYLVANIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


W VIRGINIA (24 - 9) vs. KANSAS (26 - 7) - 3/10/2018, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS is 4-3 against the spread versus W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 5-2 straight up against W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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SAN DIEGO ST (21 - 10) vs. NEW MEXICO (19 - 14) - 3/10/2018, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO is 3-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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PROVIDENCE (21 - 12) vs. VILLANOVA (29 - 4) - 3/10/2018, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
PROVIDENCE is 5-2 against the spread versus VILLANOVA over the last 3 seasons
VILLANOVA is 5-2 straight up against PROVIDENCE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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TOLEDO (23 - 10) vs. BUFFALO (25 - 8) - 3/10/2018, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-2 straight up against TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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N CAROLINA (25 - 9) vs. VIRGINIA (30 - 2) - 3/10/2018, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 3-2 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA is 3-2 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MARSHALL (23 - 10) vs. W KENTUCKY (24 - 9) - 3/10/2018, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
MARSHALL is 4-2 against the spread versus W KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
MARSHALL is 4-2 straight up against W KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USC (23 - 10) vs. ARIZONA (26 - 7) - 3/10/2018, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-2 against the spread versus USC over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-1 straight up against USC over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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CS-FULLERTON (19 - 11) vs. UC-IRVINE (18 - 16) - 3/10/2018, 12:00 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
UC-IRVINE is 3-3 against the spread versus CS-FULLERTON over the last 3 seasons
UC-IRVINE is 4-2 straight up against CS-FULLERTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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E WASHINGTON (20 - 13) vs. MONTANA (25 - 7) - 3/10/2018, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
E WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus MONTANA over the last 3 seasons
MONTANA is 2-2 straight up against E WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MD-BALT COUNTY (23 - 10) at VERMONT (27 - 6) - 3/10/2018, 11:00 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
VERMONT is 6-0 straight up against MD-BALT COUNTY over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NC CENTRAL (18 - 15) vs. HAMPTON (19 - 14) - 3/10/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
HAMPTON is 2-1 against the spread versus NC CENTRAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMPTON is 2-1 straight up against NC CENTRAL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TEXAS SOUTHERN (14 - 19) vs. ARK-PINE BLUFF (14 - 20) - 3/10/2018, 5:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS SOUTHERN is 4-2 straight up against ARK-PINE BLUFF over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SF AUSTIN ST (27 - 6) vs. SE LOUISIANA (22 - 10) - 3/10/2018, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
SF AUSTIN ST is 2-1 straight up against SE LOUISIANA over the last 3 seasons




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


GRAND CANYON (22 - 10) vs. NEW MEXICO ST (27 - 5) - 3/10/2018, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO ST is 4-2 straight up against GRAND CANYON over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 10

Atlantic 14 tourney, Washington DC
St Joe’s ruined Rhode Island’s Senior Day with a 78-48 thrashing of the Rams Feb 27; URI was 3-29 on arc in game that was 35-16 at the half. Teams split last six meetings overall. St Joe’s won seven of its last eight games after starting season 9-14; Hawks outscored George Mason 42-24 in second half of 68-49 win yesterday- St Joe’s only played seven guys, three of them 32:00+. URI split its last six games overall; they beat VCU by 9 yesterday, outscoring VCU 18-8 over last 6:21 of game. Rams played two starters 38:00+- no one else played more than 30:00.

St Bonaventure outlasted Davidson 117-113 in triple OT in Olean Feb 27; they lost 83-73 in first meeting in Charlotte. Bonnies are 3-2 in this series- they lost 90-86 in OT to Davidson in this event two years ago. Bonnies won their last 13 games; they beat Richmond by 6 yesterday, after nearly squandering a 17-point lead with 6:25 left. Mobley/Adams played whole 40:00 yesterday; no other Bonnie played more than 30:00. Davidson won six of its last seven games, with only loss the 3OT game in Olean; they crushed St Louis Friday- four Wildcats played 33:00+.

AAC tournament, Orlando
Home side won both Wichita-Houston games this season; Shockers won first meeting 81-63 at home, then lost rematch 73-59 in Houston Jan 20. Wichita won eight of its last nine games, with only loss by point at Cincinnati; Shockers beat Temple 89-81 last nite- Shamet was only Shocker to play more than 30:00. Houston won nine of last ten games, with only loss at Memphis; Cougars shot 71% inside arc in rout of UCF last night- they last won their conference tourney in 2010, are 4-7 in this event since then. Wichita is 11-3 in last 14 conference tourney games.

Sun Belt tournament, New Orleans
UL-Lafayette beat Tex-Arlington twice this season, 77-65 in Arlington, then 100-79 at home in last meeting Feb 17. Ragin’ Cajuns are 8-3 vs UTA in Sun Belt meetings. ULL won 17 of its last 19 games; they made 14-25 on arc in easy win over Texas St yesterday- they led 37-15 at half. Ragin’ Cajuns are #51 experience team in country. Arlington starts five seniors, is most experienced team in country; Mavericks won four in row and seven of last nine games- they played two guys more than 30:00 in easy win over Appalachian State Friday.

ACC tournament, Brooklyn
Duke-North Carolina games are emotional; hard to play a real good team the next day. This is 4th game in four days for UNC. Virginia is 6-4 in its last ten games with Carolina- they lost to Tar Heels in two of last three ACC tourneys, both by 4 points. Carolina won seven of its last nine games overall; they beat Duke by 5 Friday, playing three guys 33:00+. UNC got smothered 61-49 at Virginia Jan 6- UNC was held to 21 2nd half points. Virginia won its last seven games overall; they won their last seven games. Three Cavaliers played 34:00+ in Friday’s win over Clemson.

Big X tournament, Kansas City
Kansas beat West Virginia twice this season, by 5-8 points; Jayhawks are 8-4 vs Mountaineers in Big X meetings. Kansas won six of its last seven games; they won last two days by 14-16 points. Jayhawks are 27-5 in last 32 Big X tourney games. Kansas played three guys 35:00+ last night vs K-State. West Virginia is 6-3 in its last nine games; they’re 13-6 vs top 50 teams this season, went WWL in last two Big X tourneys. Mountaineers had tough 66-63 win over Texas Tech last night- they made 10-20 on arc, played three guys 32:00+.

Big East tournament, NYC
Providence won four of its last five games, winning last two days in OT; they rallied back from down 17 to upset Xavier Friday- three Friars played 40:00+ Friday, after four played 40:00+ in Thursday’s OT win. Villanova won its last four games, winning last two days by 19-24 points. Providence/Villanova split pair of games this year; Wildcats won first meeting 89-69 at home, but lost rematch 76-71 on Feb 14. Villanova won 10 of last 12 series games; they beat Friars in two of last three Big East tourneys, by 2-8 points.

Big Sky tournament, Reno
Montana won its last five games; they needed OT to hold off Northern Colorado 91-89 last nite, after trailing by 6 with 1:06 left. Four Grizzlies played 31:00+; two played 40:00+. Eastern Washington won its last eight games, first of which was 74-65 home win over Montana Feb 15; Eagles shot 62.5% inside arc that night. Teams split last ten series games; EWU beat Montana 69-65 in this event three years ago. EWU shot 64% inside arc in win over Southern Utah Friday- only two Eagles played 32:00+. Montana is 10-4 in last 14 Big Sky tourney games.

Mountain West tournament, Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas
New Mexico made 13-29 on arc, rallied back from down 10 at half to beat San Diego State 79-75 in only meeting this season. Lobos won last three series games- since ’04, they’re 4-1 vs Aztecs in MW tourney. San Diego State won its last eight games; they were up 30 at half yesterday against Nevada. Only one Aztec played 30:00+ last nite. New Mexico won won its last seven games; they played eight guys 21:00+ last nite, no one more than 29:00 in workmanlike win over Utah State. San Diego State held five of its last seven opponents under 65 points.

Conference USA tournament, Frisco, TX
Western Kentucky beat Marshall twice this season, 112-87 in Huntington, then 85-74 in rematch Jan 27; Hilltoppers are 4-5 overall vs Marshall in C-USA games. WKU played four guys 32:00+ in 57-49 win over Old Dominion Friday- Hilltoppers won 17 of its last 21 games; they’re 9-7 vs teams ranked in top 125 this season. Marshall plays fast tempo; five of their last six games had 75+ possessions. Thundering Herd won nine of last 11 games; they played only seven guys last nite in fairly easy win over Southern Miss, with three of them playing 34:00+.

MAC tournament, Cleveland
Toledo star Fletcher got hurt last nite, is likely out here. Buffalo opened MAC play with a 104-94 home win over Toledo, just their 2nd win in last six series games. Toledo won its first two MAC tourney games by total of three points; they’re 4-3 in last seven games overall. Rockets played four starters 36:00+ last night in 64-63 win over EMU, making 12-22 on arc. Buffalo won its last five games, winning first two MAC tourney games by 15-17 points; Bulls have only one senior in their rotation- they played two guys 32:00+ in 78-61 win over Kent State last night.

Big West tournament, Anaheim
Road team won both Fullerton-Irvine games this season; Titans won first meeting 67-64, then lost rematch 63-58 at home Feb 3. Irvine won 11 of last 13 series games, but lost two of last three. Irvine won 10 of their last 12 games overall; they’re 11-4 in last 15 Big West tourney games; Anteaters won their first two tourney games by total of 4 points- they played only one guy more than 28:00 in ragged 61-58 win over UCSB. Fullerton won seven of its last nine games, winning first tourney games by 2-3 points. Three Titans played 32:00+ last night.

Pac-12 tournament, T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Arizona was +18 (40-22) on boards in 81-67 home win over USC in only meeting Feb 10; Wildcats won last four series games, and 10 of last 12. Arizona outscored UCLA 11-0 in OT win last nite; Wildcats played three starters 40:00+, a 4th starter 38:00. Wildcats won seven of their last eight games overall- three of their last six games went OT. USC won six of its last seven games; they won last two nights by 13-20 points, allowing 51 ppg. Trojans aren’t deep; they don’t have a backup PG right now- they used four starters 36:00+ last night, even in an easy win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 10

Trend Report

UMBC @ VERMONT
UMBC

No trends to report
VERMONT

No trends to report
CORNELL @ HARVARD
CORNELL

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cornell's last 5 games when playing Harvard
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cornell's last 6 games
HARVARD

Harvard is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cornell
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Harvard's last 5 games when playing Cornell
TEXAS-ARLINGTON @ LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
TEXAS-ARLINGTON

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas-Arlington's last 6 games when playing Louisiana-Lafayette
Texas-Arlington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

Louisiana-Lafayette is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Texas-Arlington
SAINT JOSEPH'S @ RHODE ISLAND
SAINT JOSEPH'S

Saint Joseph's is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Saint Joseph's is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
RHODE ISLAND

Rhode Island is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Rhode Island's last 5 games when playing Saint Joseph's
MEMPHIS @ CINCINNATI
MEMPHIS

Memphis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Memphis is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
CINCINNATI

Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Memphis
ALABAMA @ KENTUCKY
ALABAMA

The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Alabama's last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Alabama's last 7 games when playing Kentucky
KENTUCKY

Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Alabama
Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL @ HAMPTON
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

No trends to report
HAMPTON

No trends to report
YALE @ PENNSYLVANIA
YALE

Yale is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Yale is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pennsylvania is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
GEORGIA SOUTHERN @ GEORGIA STATE
GEORGIA SOUTHERN

Georgia Southern is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Georgia State
Georgia Southern is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
GEORGIA STATE

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Georgia State's last 10 games
Georgia State is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
ARKANSAS @ TENNESSEE
ARKANSAS

Arkansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Arkansas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
TENNESSEE

Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games
DAVIDSON @ ST. BONAVENTURE
DAVIDSON

Davidson is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Davidson's last 5 games when playing St. Bonaventure
ST. BONAVENTURE

St. Bonaventure is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Bonaventure's last 5 games when playing Davidson
HOUSTON @ WICHITA STATE
HOUSTON

Houston is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
WICHITA STATE

The total has gone OVER in 11 of Wichita State's last 12 games
Wichita State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
TEXAS SOUTHERN @ ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
TEXAS SOUTHERN

No trends to report
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

No trends to report
WEST VIRGINIA @ KANSAS
WEST VIRGINIA

West Virginia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of West Virginia's last 5 games
KANSAS

Kansas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Kansas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing West Virginia
SAN DIEGO STATE @ NEW MEXICO
SAN DIEGO STATE

San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Diego State is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
NEW MEXICO

New Mexico is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Mexico is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
PROVIDENCE @ VILLANOVA
PROVIDENCE

Providence is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Villanova
Providence is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
VILLANOVA

Villanova is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Villanova's last 7 games
TOLEDO @ BUFFALO
TOLEDO

Toledo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toledo's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
BUFFALO

Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
EASTERN WASHINGTON @ MONTANA
EASTERN WASHINGTON

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Eastern Washington's last 5 games when playing Montana
Eastern Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
MONTANA

Montana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montana's last 5 games when playing Eastern Washington
MARSHALL @ WESTERN KENTUCKY
MARSHALL

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Marshall's last 6 games
Marshall is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
WESTERN KENTUCKY

Western Kentucky is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Western Kentucky's last 5 games
NORTH CAROLINA @ VIRGINIA
NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Carolina's last 5 games
VIRGINIA

Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia's last 5 games when playing North Carolina
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN @ SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

No trends to report
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA

No trends to report
USC @ ARIZONA
USC

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of USC's last 5 games
USC is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
ARIZONA

Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing USC
GRAND CANYON @ NEW MEXICO STATE
GRAND CANYON

Grand Canyon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Grand Canyon is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Mexico State
NEW MEXICO STATE

New Mexico State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Mexico State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Grand Canyon

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Get to know your mid majors: Betting profiles for small conference teams in the NCAA Tournament
Ashton Grewal

The Spartans won outright as 8.5-point underdogs at NC State back in December.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs punched their ticket into the NCAA Tournament for a 20th consecutive season by winning the West Coast Conference in convincing fashion over BYU. From Dan Dickau to Adam Morrison to Kelly Olynyk – sports bettors are familiar with the Zags’ knack for making noise in March.

The program has grown too much under head coach Mark Few to be lumped in with the rest of the small conference teams filling out the field. The Bulldogs earned a No. 1 seed in the tournament a year ago and made it all the way to national championship game before bowing out to the Tar Heels.

Gonzaga is the exception not the rule when it comes to mid major teams. Most squads from the lesser conferences are unknown entities when they appear on the bracket.

Murray State Racers

Record: 26-5 SU, 17-11 ATS, 14-14 O/U
Conference: Ohio Valley champs

Best win: 17-point win against Belmont in the conference tournament championship game.

Worst loss: 14-point loss to the Saint Louis as a 3.5-point favorite.

What they do best: Murray State owns the 21st most efficient offense in the country and nets 1.119 points per offensive possession. The Racers aren’t a dominate 3-point shooting team but they are highly-effective when they do shoot from beyond the arc.

Weakness: They don’t devote many minutes to their big men and are better off when they’re playing small ball. A matchup against an opponent with a stacked frontcourt – like say Duke – in the first round would be less than ideal for Murray State supporters.

Radford Highlanders

Record: 22-12 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-6 O/U
Conference: Big South champs

Best win: The Highlanders beat regular season Big South champs N.C. Asheville by 20 points at the start of conference play.

Worst loss: They lost by 12 points to Vanderbilt back in November. The Commodores finished with just 12 regular season wins and were the second worst team in the SEC.

What they do best: In a word – defend. The Highlanders allowed fewer than 54 points in each of their conference tournament games and only 17 other teams in college hoops surrendered fewer points per game during the regular season.

Weakness: They won’t be able to win in a shootout against an up-tempo team. Virginia Tech, for example, crushed Radford 95-68 in the first week of December.

Loyola-Chicago Ramblers

Record: 28-5 SU, 19-9-1 ATS, 12-17-1 O/U
Conference: Missouri Valley champs

Best win: They won 65-59 against Florida – a top contender to win the SEC tournament – in Gainesville.

Worst loss: Wisconsin-Milwaukee, a middle-of-the-pack MVC side, beat the Ramblers by 17 points in December.

What they do best: They don’t take bad shots and they run a balanced offense. Loyola-Chicago finished third in the country in field goal percentage (50.6) and it has five players averaging 10 or more points per game.

Weakness: The pace the Ramblers play will remind bettors of Virginia. They average just 66.9 possessions per game and aren’t comfortable playing a fast-break tempo. An effective pressing team like West Virginia wouldn’t suit Loyola-Chicago well.

Lipscomb Bison

Record: 23-9 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U
Conference: Atlantic Sun champs

Best win: They played preseason Atlantic Sun favorites three times with the last coming in the conference tournament final where they beat Florida Gulf Coast 108-96.

Worst loss: The Bison lost at home to New Jersey Tech at the beginning of February. That was the last game they lost.

What they do best: They find a way to get to the charity stripe. Made free throws account for 22.3 percent of the Bison’s points (28th highest in the country) and they draw the sixth most fouls per game at 21.6.

Weakness: This is Lipscomb’s first appearance in the Big Dance in the school history. Will nerves be a factor? They played well in their conference but Texas and Alabama destroyed them during non-conference play.

Iona Gaels

Record: 20-13 SU, 15-14 ATS, 16-12 O/U
Conference: MAAC champs

Best win: They beat conference regular season champion Rider by 27 points back in January.

Worst loss: The Gaels lost by 22 points at home to a Monmouth-NJ team that finished the season with just 11 wins.

What they do best: Shoot from deep. Iona averages 9.7 made threes per game and three of its main rotation players shoot 38.5 percent or better from beyond the arc.

Weakness: Don’t expect the Gaels to get many second chance points. They rank 303rd in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. They don’t want to play a team that defends the perimeter well and closes out hard on 3-point shooters. Kentucky and Virginia are two teams that could cause big problems for Iona.

NC-Greensboro Spartans

Record: 27-7 SU, 17-9-1 ATS, 11-16-1 O/U
Conference: Southern champs

Best win: The Spartans won outright as 8.5-point underdogs at NC State back in December.

Worst loss: They lost to East Tennessee State despite being listed as 8.5-point road chalk.

What they do best: Control the paint. The UNCG is tops in the Southern conference in offensive rebounding, rebounding margin and blocks per game.

Weakness: Their offense was middle in the pack in the conference and the Spartans don’t draw many fouls. They rank 331st in the nation in free throw attempts per game (15.5).

Wright State Raiders

Record: 25-9 SU, 18-13-1 ATS, 12-20-1 O/U
Conference: Horizon champs

Best win: The Raiders took down Georgia Tech on the road as 8.5-point underdogs.

Worst loss: They lost by 19 points at home against eventual Ohio Valley champion Murray State back in November.

What they do best: This is another team that hangs its hat on defense. The Raiders led the Horizon league in most key defensive statistics but the thing they do best is cause turnovers. Their opponents turned the ball over 20.7 percent per offensive possession which is the 32nd highest rate in all of college hoops.

Weakness: There’s not much flash to the Raiders’ offense and those turnovers they create gives them needed extra offensive possessions. They don’t want to face a team with multiple, strong ball handlers.

Charleston Cougars

Record: 26-7 SU, 15-14-1 ATS, 17-13-1 O/U
Conference: Colonial Athletic champs

Best win: The Cougars won outright as 3.5-point road underdogs against Northeastern at the beginning of February.

Worst loss: Cal Poly, the third worst team from the Big West, won just nine games this season. One of those came courtesy of Charleston.

What they do best: Execute down the stretch. The Cougars own the 18th best, second-half scoring margin at +5.2.

Weakness: They don’t own the boards as well as you’d hope particularly against weak competition in the CAA conference. They grabbed just 72.3 percent of their defensive rebounds and averaged only 8.4 offensive boards per game.

LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds

Record: 18-16 SU, 3-4 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Conference: Northeast champs

Best win: They beat conference regular season champ Wagner in the tournament final 71-61 as 9.5-point road underdogs.

Worst loss: Take your pick. The Blackbirds won their conference despite losing 16 of their 34 games.

What they do best: Defend the 3-point line. Their opponents shot a conference-low 32.5 percent from deep.

Weakness: LIU Brooklyn will likely be one of the smallest teams in the field. Two of its main contributors stand less than six feet tall and the lone big man in the rotation (Zach Coleman) only plays 22 minutes per game.

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Conference: Summit League champs
Record: 28-6 SU, 19-9 ATS, 15-13 O/U

Best win: The Jackrabbits hopped past Iowa as 7.5-point underdogs on a neutral court.

Worst loss: They lost to Missouri State, a middle of the road team in the Missouri Valley conference, by 20 points.

What they do best: Shoot from deep. South Dakota State is ninth in the country in made 3’s per game (10.4), and hit 40.3 percent of its shots from beyond the arc during conference play.

Weakness: No team averaged more fouls per game (19.3 in conference games) in the Summit League than South Dakota State. A team that draws a lot of fouls and shoots a high percentage at the line – like Xavier – would be a tough draw for the Jackrabbits.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Don't let bad NCAA tournament betting trends drive you mad this March
Jason Logan

Trends are as much a part of March Madness as a stack of blank brackets and that CBS college basketball theme song. You know the one: Da-da, Da-da, Da, Da-dum, Da-da, Dum!

Wrangling NCAA tournament trends is more difficult than any other major sport, mainly because player turnover in college hoops is pretty significant, especially in power conferences. The year-to-year makeup and talent level of programs fluctuate more than stock prices following a Trump tweet, and sports bettors should really watch it when it comes to putting any weight into these long-running stats.

Oh, you’ll hear some real doozies as it pertains to particular conferences and their ATS success in the national tournament over the last 20 years or betting trends tied to specific seedings (especially useless since they’ve changed the way they seed teams and added play-in games). And we are among the guilty purveyors of such hollow facts, as a lot of these trends – while completely f-ing worthless - are fun topics to discuss and weigh against matchups that qualify for debate.

I’ve always viewed historical trends as a slight nudge in direction (not saying it’s the right direction), like a trail of bread crumbs or moss growing on the north side of a tree. They’re a first step in the process and some are worthy of deeper exploration. But trends are very much just a single cog in the handicapping machine.

Things like recent form and current trends based on this season’s output should hold importance over the fact that No. 11 seeds set between +6 and +9.5 are covering at a 61 percent clip since 1998 (they’re not by the way. I just made up a ridiculous trend as an example. For God’s sake, don’t place a bet based on that).

How books treat trends

Perhaps the best way to measure the validity of historic NCAA tournament betting trends is to ask the guys who set the odds on each and every game: the bookmakers. And what you’ll get back from the bookies when it comes to their use of historic trends when setting their spreads and totals is an echoing “Nahhhhhhhhh”.

“Trends are generally ignored by oddsmakers. Historical trends with large samplings may carry some weight, but still it would be very minimal,” says Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for online book BetDSI. “In all, trends are something the public loves to point to, but they have almost no bearing on how oddsmakers proceed with their side of the business.”

In fact, some sportsbooks pointed to historical trends as their biggest weapon against the betting public. And it makes sense.

College basketball is a sharp market all the way through non-conference, conference, and Championship Week play, with the action about a 70/30 split in terms of wiseguys to public bets. Then Selection Sunday happens and suddenly everyone and their dog is a damn NCAA expert and talking about Loyola Chicago as a sleeper team they’ve been watching all season. I’m calling bullshit.

That same guy clucking away about RPI is advancing a team in his bracket or placing a wager solely based on some whack-ass trend he saw on Twitter about SEC schools struggling when giving double digits in the Round of 32 (again, just a made-up trend). And it’s not just game-by-game betting, it also lures unsuspecting bettors into the NCAA futures waters as well.

“One of the most beneficial trends to the books is that myth that any team can win March Madness,” says Matthew Holt, COO at CG Analytics which provides odds to multiple books in Las Vegas. “This myth normally creates a massive hold for the books in the futures market for college hoops. In fact, the college basketball futures market is the most lucrative to the books.”

A long-time oddsmaking contact always reminds me that lines are set to the public’s perception, and if the bettors are factoring in historic trends into their capping, the books will as well. As one bookmaker pointed out, a trend like a No. 1 seed never losing to a No. 16 may prompt a few extra cents on the moneyline for the top-seeded team knowing plenty of public players will tie those lofty moneylines to other wagers just to get a bit more bang for their buck.

Not all trends are bad

OK, we’ve said some terrible things about historic NCAA trends, many of which we can’t take back. That doesn’t mean ALL HISTORIC TRENDS should be thrown in the trash and/or sorted for recycling.

Leave it to long-time handicapper and gatekeeper of one of the biggest betting databases in the business, Marc Lawrence, to school me on the value of historic trends using this famous Winston Churchill quote, “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

Who am I to argue with the Prime Minister? But I’m pretty sure he didn’t have a bunch of dudes yelling “What the hell kind of shot was that?!” at a TV in mind when he said that.

Lawrence says by relying on past patterns we can better anticipate expectancy and by applying them to current form, we become better, well-rounded handicappers. He specifically points to trends as they pertain to head coaches, stating “Their personalities and traits are reflective on a team’s measure of success on the court.”

And it makes sense. Players come and go in the college ranks, but head coaches remain the same, as do their game plans, offensive playbook, and defensive philosophies. They recruit players that will fit their system, so those results are more stable and reliable than other historic NCAA trends.

“The coaches have a little more time to get their team ready for this first game than most games in the season, and the ones who have proven successful at this stage should be trusted,” says Covers Experts’ Brandon Shively. “New coaches are a wild card and I try to pass on them.”

Another trend used by not only handicappers but also showing up on the radar of bookmakers is a team’s defensive efficiency ranking. OK, OK. That’s not so much of a trend as it is a stat, but when you apply it to past Final Four teams, there’s an absolute trend bleeding through the bracket.

Looking back at the past six NCAA tournaments (2012 to 2017), no Final Four team has ranked outside of the Top 40 in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). Twelve of those 24 national semifinal programs have placed inside the Top 10 in that stat column (including seven in the Top 3) and the average defensive efficiency rating for Final Four teams is 13.6 since 2012 - a year in which the four semifinalists ranked No. 1, No. 3, No. 4, and No. 7 in that category.

“Few saw South Carolina's Final Four run coming last year. However, the Gamecocks ranked No. 3 in the country in defensive efficiency going into the tourney,” says Covers Experts Brian Power. “Gonzaga was No. 1 and, of course, made it all the way to the final. For the record, this year's top teams in defensive efficiency are Virginia, Cincinnati, Texas Tech and Tennessee. Make note of this.”

That means whether you’re filling out your bracket, taking a flyer on the futures, or betting game-to-game, you should really take a hard look at teams ranked Nos. 1-14 in defensive efficiency. It’s something oddsmakers admittedly look at when setting their outright odds for the Big Dance.

“Historic offensive and defensive efficiency data of past champions and Final Four teams are used to set the futures odds on the NCAA tournament,” says Greg R., a lines manager for online book GTBets. “It also helps if they play at a fast tempo.”

Mixing offensive pace into the NCAA sauce, along with defensive efficiency, you have a select number of qualifying teams this year: Duke, Michigan State and Gonzaga. Those power programs sit around +500, +600 and +2,500 respectively on the NCAA futures board.

Infamous 12 over 5

We couldn’t end this bad boy without mentioning the most notorious NCAA tournament trend of them all: No. 12 seed over a No. 5 seed.

Yes, this is a trend that shows up most times in March but is far from a given. Going back to 2012, all four No. 5 seeds have advanced past the Round of 64 just once in that span – in 2015 – and before that 2007 was the last time we saw this trend come up short. In that six-season span, No. 5 seeds are just 11-13 SU versus No. 12 seeds in the opening round.

When you throw a pointspread into this matchup, the No. 5 seeds have been a money pit, going just 8-16 ATS since 2012. They failed to cover in three of four matchups last March and were also 1-3 ATS in 2016. That said, the No. 5 seed is also 5-3 SU in those last two tournaments.

“I’m not a trends guy but from an observation stand point I’d say the No. 12 versus No. 5 matchup has been drawn out,” says Covers Experts Zack Cimini. “There was a time that the No. 12 seed teams warranted upset potential. Nowadays, the No. 5 seed has become more dangerous. These teams usually had their moments in-season and are rounding back into form.”

As a historical trend, I’m so weary of seed-based betting, but there’s no denying that the No. 12 over No. 5 trend has teeth - big nasty sand shark-looking ones – when you level the playing field with a spread.

Of course, as Mr. Lawrence proclaimed, trends like these allow bettors to “anticipate expectancy” and when measured against current form, you can pinpoint the value – or in this case the No. 5 least likely to cover the spread against the No. 12 seed.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ACC Conference Championship betting preview and odds: North Carolina vs. Virginia

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers (-2, 130)

Tournament to be played at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

Top-ranked Virginia will look to cap an incredible conference regular season in which it went 17-1 with an ACC Tournament championship as it takes on No. 11 North Carolina on Saturday at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY. The Cavaliers advanced with a 64-58 win over No. 20 Clemson on Friday, while the sixth-seeded Tar Heels beat No. 4 Duke 74-69 in the other semifinal to move on.

Jack Salt, a bench player averaging just 3.4 points and four rebounds per game this season, was clutch down the stretch as he,scored eight points on 4-of-5 shooting - all in the second half - and pulled down eight rebounds while the Cavaliers fought off fourth-seeded Clemson's comeback attempt. The Tigers got within four points with 13.4 seconds remaining, but Devon Hall hit two late free throws to send Virginia to the ACC title game for the third time in five years. North Carolina jumped out to an 18-5 lead in the first nine minutes and led for much of the game against second-seeded Duke, but a late 13-0 run got the Blue Devils within three with 51 seconds remaining. Then, after a trio of turnovers inside the final minute, Duke's Grayson Allen missed a game-tying 3-point attempt with six seconds remaining and Theo Pinson nailed two free-throws with 3.2 seconds on the clock to seal the win for North Carolina.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

BETTING STATS:



BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: Virginia opened as 2-point chalk and the over hit betting boards at 130, neither number has yet to move as of Saturday morning.

MATCHUP CHART:



ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA: Ball movement was key for North Carolina in the win against Duke as it was able to dismantle a 2-3 zone defense by recording 24 team assists on 28 made field goals, with Pinson (seven assists) and Kenny Williams (six) leading the way. Luke Maye had a bounce-back performance, leading the Tar Heels with 17 points, 10 rebounds and four assists a day after he scored just two points on 1-of-15 shooting against Miami in the quarterfinals. Four other players reached double digits in points for North Carolina, with Joel Berry II scoring 13 and Cameron Johnson, Garrison Brooks and Williams each adding 10.

ABOUT VIRGINIA: Kyle Guy, Virginia's leading scorer at 14 points per game, led the way offensively against Clemson with 15 points on 6-of-12 shooting - including 3-of-7 from beyond the arc. But as usual, it was the Cavaliers' top-ranked defense that led the way, holding the Tigers to 34.7 percent shooting (17-for-49) and 20 percent from 3-point range (5-for-25). In their only matchup on Jan. 6, the Cavaliers limited the Tar Heels to just 49 points on 29.6 percent shooting (16-for-54) and forced 19 turnovers.

TRENDS:

* Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
* Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 4-0 in Tar Heels last 4 overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

TIP-IN BETTING TIDBITS:

- Virginia is in the conference title game for the ninth time in school history but has won only two championships (1976 and 2014) and lost to North Carolina in 2016.

- North Carolina is looking to win its 19th ACC championship and pull within one of Duke for most all-time.

- The Tar Heels will be playing their fourth game in four days, while the Cavaliers will take the court for the third time in three days.